The operational impact of deploying SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in countries of the WHO African Region.

BACKGROUND: When available, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will be deployed to countries with limited immunization systems. METHODS: We conducted an immunization capacity assessment of a simulated WHO African Region country using region-specific data on immunization, population, healthcare workers (HCWs), vaccine cold storage capacity (quartile values for national and subnational levels), and characteristics of influenza vaccines to represent future SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. We calculated monthly increases in vaccine doses, doses per vaccinator, and cold storage volumes for four-month SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaigns targeting risk groups compared to routine immunization baselines. FINDINGS: Administering SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to risk groups would increase total monthly doses by 27.0% for ≥65 years, 91.7% for chronic diseases patients, and 1.1% for HCWs. Assuming median nurse density estimates adjusted for absenteeism and proportion providing immunization services, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaigns would increase total monthly doses per vaccinator by 29.3% for ≥65 years, 99.6% for chronic diseases patients, and 1.2% for HCWs. When we applied quartiles of actual African Region country vaccine storage capacity, routine immunization vaccine volumes exceeded national-level storage capacity for at least 75% of countries, but subnational levels had sufficient storage capacity for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for at least 75% of countries. INTERPRETATION: In the WHO African Region, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaigns would substantially increase doses per vaccinator and cold chain capacity requirements over routine immunization baselines. Pandemic vaccination campaigns would add volume to national-level stores already at their limits, but sufficient capacity exists at subnational levels. Immediate attention to strengthening immunization systems is essential to support pandemic responses. FUNDING: None.

Rural-urban disparities in missed opportunities for vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-country decomposition analyses.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we aimed to explore the rural-urban disparities in the magnitude and determinants of missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV) in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using nationally representative household surveys conducted between 2007 and 2017 in 35 countries across sub-Saharan Africa. The risk difference in MOV between rural or urban dwellers were calculated. Logistic regression method was used to investigate the urban-rural disparities in multivariable analyses. Then Blinder-Oaxaca method was used to decompose differences in MOV between rural and urban dwellers. RESULTS: The median number of children aged 12 to 23 months was 2113 (Min: 370, Max: 5896). There was wide variation in the the magnitude of MOV among children in rural and urban areas across the 35 countries. The magnitude of MOV in rural areas varied from 18.0% (95% CI 14.7 to 21.4) in the Gambia to 85.2% (81.2 to 88.9) in Gabon. Out of the 35 countries included in this analysis, pro-rural inequality was observed in 16 countries (i.e. MOV is prevalent among children living in rural areas) and pro-urban inequality in five countries (i.e. MOV is prevalent among children living in urban areas). The contributions of the compositional 'explained' and structural 'unexplained' components varied across the countries. However, household wealth index was the most frequently identified factor. CONCLUSIONS: Variation exists in the level of missed opportunities for vaccination between rural and urban areas, with widespread pro-rural inequalities across Africa. Although several factors account for these rural-urban disparities in various countries, household wealth was the most common.

Does it really matter where you live? A multilevel analysis of factors associated with missed opportunities for vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa.

There is an urgent need to examine the magnitude and factors responsible for missed opportunities for vaccination, to rapidly achieve national immunization targets. The objective of the study was to examine the influence of individual, neighbourhood and country level socioeconomic position on missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV) in Sub-Saharan Africa. We used multilevel logistic regression analysis on Demographic and Health Survey data collected between 2007 and 2016 in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed data on 43,637 children aged 12 to 23 months (Level 1) nested within 15,122 neighbourhoods (Level 2) from 35 countries (Level 3). After adjustment for individual-, neighbourhood- and country-level factors, the following appeared as significant risk factors for increased odds of MOV: high birth order, high number of under-five children in the house, poorest household, lack of maternal education, lack of media access, and living in poorer neighbourhood. According to the intra-country and intra-neighbourhood correlation coefficient, 18.4% and 37.4% of the variance in odds of MOV could be attributed to the country and neighbourhood level factors, respectively; and if a child moved to another country or neighbourhood with a higher probability of MOV, the median increase in their odds of MOV would be 2.47 and 2.56 fold respectively. This study has revealed that the risk of missed opportunities for vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by not only individual factors but also by compositional factors such as family's financial capacity, place of birth and upbringing.

Decomposing the gap in missed opportunities for vaccination between poor and non-poor in sub-Saharan Africa: A Multicountry Analyses.

Understanding the gaps in missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV) in sub-Saharan Africa would inform interventions for improving immunisation coverage to achieving universal childhood immunisation. We aimed to conduct a multicountry analyses to decompose the gap in MOV between poor and non-poor in SSA. We used cross-sectional data from 35 Demographic and Health Surveys in SSA conducted between 2007 and 2016. Descriptive statistics used to understand the gap in MOV between the urban poor and non-poor, and across the selected covariates. Out of the 35 countries included in this analysis, 19 countries showed pro-poor inequality, 5 showed pro-non-poor inequality and remaining 11 countries showed no statistically significant inequality. Among the countries with statistically significant pro-illiterate inequality, the risk difference ranged from 4.2% in DR Congo to 20.1% in Kenya. Important factors responsible for the inequality varied across countries. In Madagascar, the largest contributors to inequality in MOV were media access, number of under-five children, and maternal education. However, in Liberia media access narrowed inequality in MOV between poor and non-poor households. The findings indicate that in most SSA countries, children belonging to poor households are most likely to have MOV and that socio-economic inequality in is determined not only by health system functions, but also by factors beyond the scope of health authorities and care delivery system. The findings suggest the need for addressing social determinants of health.

Mind the Gap: What explains the education-related inequality in missed opportunities for vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa? Compositional and structural characteristics.

Missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV) is an important barrier hindering full immunisation coverage among eligible children. Though factors responsible for MOV are well documented in literature, little attention has been paid to the role of inequalities. The aim of this study is to examine the association between structural or compositional factors and education inequalities in MOV. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique was used to explain the factors contributing to the average gap in missed opportunities for vaccination between uneducated and educated mothers in sub-Saharan Africa using DHS survey data from 35 sub Saharan African countries collected between 2007 and 2016. The sample contained 69,657 children aged 12 to 23 months. We observed a wide variation and inter-country differences in the prevalence of missed opportunity for vaccination across populations and geographical locations. Our results show that the prevalence of MOV in Zimbabwe among uneducated and educated mothers was 9% and 21% respectively while in Gabon corresponding numbers were 85% and 89% respectively. In 15 countries, MOV was significantly prevalent among children born to uneducated mothers (pro-illiterate inequality) while in 5 countries MOV was significantly prevalent among educated mothers (pro-educated inequality). Our results suggest that education-related inequalities in missed opportunities for vaccination are explained by compositional and structural characteristics; and that neighbourhood socio-economic status was the most important contributor to education-related inequalities across countries followed by either the presence of under-five children, media access or household wealth index. The results showed that differential effects such as neighbourhood socio-economic status, presence of under-five children, media access and household wealth index, primarily explained education-related inequality in MOV. Interventions to reduce gaps in education-related inequality in MOV should focus on social determinants of health.

Progress Toward Regional Measles Elimination - Worldwide, 2000-2016.

The fourth United Nations Millennium Development Goal, adopted in 2000, set a target to reduce child mortality by two thirds by 2015. One indicator of progress toward this target was measles vaccination coverage (1). In 2010, the World Health Assembly (WHA) set three milestones for measles control by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of a measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) among children aged 1 year to ≥90% at the national level and to ≥80% in every district; 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to <5 cases per million population; and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate (2).* In 2012, WHA endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan,† with the objective of eliminating measles in four World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2015 and in five regions by 2020. Countries in all six WHO regions have adopted goals for measles elimination by or before 2020. Measles elimination is defined as the absence of endemic measles virus transmission in a region or other defined geographic area for ≥12 months, in the presence of a high quality surveillance system that meets targets of key performance indicators. This report updates a previous report (3) and describes progress toward global measles control milestones and regional measles elimination goals during 2000-2016. During this period, annual reported measles incidence decreased 87%, from 145 to 19 cases per million persons, and annual estimated measles deaths decreased 84%, from 550,100 to 89,780; measles vaccination prevented an estimated 20.4 million deaths. However, the 2015 milestones have not yet been met; only one WHO region has been verified as having eliminated measles. Improved implementation of elimination strategies by countries and their partners is needed, with focus on increasing vaccination coverage through substantial and sustained additional investments in health systems, strengthening surveillance systems, using surveillance data to drive programmatic actions, securing political commitment, and raising the visibility of measles elimination goals.

Progress Toward Regional Measles Elimination - Worldwide, 2000-2015.

Adopted in 2000, United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 set a target to reduce child mortality by two thirds by 2015, with measles vaccination coverage as one of the progress indicators. In 2010, the World Health Assembly (WHA) set three milestones for measles control by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) for children aged 1 year to ≥90% nationally and ≥80% in every district; 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to <5 cases per 1 million population; and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate (1,2).* In 2012, WHA endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan† with the objective to eliminate measles in four World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2015. Countries in all six WHO regions have adopted measles elimination goals. Measles elimination is the absence of endemic measles transmission in a region or other defined geographical area for ≥12 months in the presence of a well performing surveillance system. This report updates a previous report (3) and describes progress toward global measles control milestones and regional measles elimination goals during 2000-2015. During this period, annual reported measles incidence decreased 75%, from 146 to 36 cases per 1 million persons, and annual estimated measles deaths decreased 79%, from 651,600 to 134,200. However, none of the 2015 milestones or elimination goals were met. Countries and their partners need to act urgently to secure political commitment, raise the visibility of measles, increase vaccination coverage, strengthen surveillance, and mitigate the threat of decreasing resources for immunization once polio eradication is achieved.

Progress toward regional measles elimination - worldwide, 2000-2014.

In 2000, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), with MDG4 being a two-thirds reduction in child mortality by 2015, and with measles vaccination coverage being one of the three indicators of progress toward this goal.* In 2010, the World Health Assembly established three milestones for measles control by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) for children aged 1 year to ≥90% nationally and ≥80% in every district; 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to fewer than five cases per million population; and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate (1).† In 2012, the World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan§ with the objective to eliminate measles in four World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2015. WHO member states in all six WHO regions have adopted measles elimination goals. This report updates the 2000­2013 report (2) and describes progress toward global control and regional measles elimination during 2000­2014. During this period, annual reported measles incidence declined 73% worldwide, from 146 to 40 cases per million population, and annual estimated measles deaths declined 79%, from 546,800 to 114,900. However, progress toward the 2015 milestones and elimination goals has slowed markedly since 2010. To resume progress toward milestones and goals for measles elimination, a review of current strategies and challenges to improving program performance is needed, and countries and their partners need to raise the visibility of measles elimination, address barriers to measles vaccination, and make substantial and sustained additional investments in strengthening health systems.

Progress toward regional measles elimination--worldwide, 2000-2013.

In 2012, the World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan with the objective to eliminate measles in four World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2015. Member states of all six WHO regions have adopted measles elimination goals. In 2010, the World Health Assembly established three milestones for 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) for children aged 1 year to ≥90% nationally and ≥80% in every district; 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to <5 cases per million; and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate. This report updates the 2000-2012 report and describes progress toward global control and regional measles elimination during 2000-2013. During this period, annual reported measles incidence declined 72% worldwide, from 146 to 40 per million population, and annual estimated measles deaths declined 75%, from 544,200 to 145,700. Four of six WHO regions have established regional verification commissions (RVCs); in the European (EUR) and Western Pacific regions (WPR), 19 member states successfully documented the absence of endemic measles. Resuming progress toward 2015 milestones and elimination goals will require countries and their partners to raise the visibility of measles elimination, address barriers to measles vaccination, and make substantial and sustained additional investments in strengthening health systems.

Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: The seventh reported outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the equatorial African country of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) began on July 26, 2014, as another large EVD epidemic continued to spread in West Africa. Simultaneous reports of EVD in equatorial and West Africa raised the question of whether the two outbreaks were linked. METHODS: We obtained data from patients in the DRC, using the standard World Health Organization clinical-investigation form for viral hemorrhagic fevers. Patients were classified as having suspected, probable, or confirmed EVD or a non-EVD illness. Blood samples were obtained for polymerase-chain-reaction-based diagnosis, viral isolation, sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS: The outbreak began in Inkanamongo village in the vicinity of Boende town in Équateur province and has been confined to that province. A total of 69 suspected, probable, or confirmed cases were reported between July 26 and October 7, 2014, including 8 cases among health care workers, with 49 deaths. As of October 7, there have been approximately six generations of cases of EVD since the outbreak began. The reported weekly case incidence peaked in the weeks of August 17 and 24 and has since fallen sharply. Genome sequencing revealed Ebola virus (EBOV, Zaire species) as the cause of this outbreak. A coding-complete genome sequence of EBOV that was isolated during this outbreak showed 99.2% identity with the most closely related variant from the 1995 outbreak in Kikwit in the DRC and 96.8% identity to EBOV variants that are currently circulating in West Africa. CONCLUSIONS: The current EVD outbreak in the DRC has clinical and epidemiologic characteristics that are similar to those of previous EVD outbreaks in equatorial Africa. The causal agent is a local EBOV variant, and this outbreak has a zoonotic origin different from that in the 2014 epidemic in West Africa. (Funded by the Centre International de Recherches Médicales de Franceville and others.).

The decade of vaccines global vaccine action plan: shaping immunization programmes in the current decade.

Since the establishment of the Expanded Programme on Immunization in 1974, there has been considerable progress with scaling up access to immunization globally. Currently an estimated 2 to 3 million deaths and an even greater burden of morbidity and disability are averted annually through immunization. However, an even greater impact can be achieved if the potential of vaccines is fully exploited. The Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) provides a framework to make life-saving vaccines available to all individuals, regardless of who they are or where they live. The first annual progress report of the GVAP noted that while there has been progress in several areas, the world is not on track to achieve several of the key goals and milestones in the plan. Achieving the vision for the decade will require the concerted action of all stakeholders, including national governments and communities.

Global control and regional elimination of measles, 2000-2012.

In 2010, the World Health Assembly established three milestones toward global measles eradication to be reached by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) for children aged 1 year to ≥90% nationally and ≥80% in every district, 2) reduce and maintain annual measles incidence at <5 cases per million, and 3) reduce measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate. After the adoption by member states of the South-East Asia Region (SEAR) of the goal of measles elimination by 2020, elimination goals have been set by member states of all six World Health Organization (WHO) regions, and reaching measles elimination in four WHO regions by 2015 is an objective of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP). This report updates the previous report for 2000-2011 and describes progress toward global control and regional elimination of measles during 2000-2012. During this period, increases in routine MCV coverage, plus supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) reaching 145 million children in 2012, led to a 77% decrease worldwide in reported measles annual incidence, from 146 to 33 per million population, and a 78% decline in estimated annual measles deaths, from 562,400 to 122,000. Compared with a scenario of no vaccination, an estimated 13.8 million deaths were prevented by measles vaccination during 2000-2012. Achieving the 2015 targets and elimination goals will require countries and their partners to raise the visibility of measles elimination and make substantial and sustained additional investments in strengthening health systems.