Assessing the impact of areal unit selection and the modifiable areal unit problem on associative statistics between cases of tick-borne disease and entomological indices.

The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) is a cause of statistical and visual bias when aggregating data according to spatial units, particularly when spatial units may be changed arbitrarily. The MAUP is a concern in vector-borne disease research when entomological metrics gathered from point-level sampling data are related to epidemiological data aggregated to administrative units like counties or ZIP Codes. Here, we assess the statistical impact of the MAUP when calculating correlations between randomly aggregated cases of anaplasmosis in New York State during 2017 and a geostatistical layer of an entomological risk index for Anaplasma phagocytophilum in blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) collected during the fall of 2017. Correlations were also calculated using various administrative boundaries for comparison. We also demonstrate the impact of the MAUP on data visualization using choropleth maps and offer pycnophylactic interpolation as an alternative. Polygon simulations indicate that increasing the number of polygons decreases correlation coefficients and their variability. Correlation coefficients calculated using ZIP Code tabulation area and Census tract polygons were beyond 4 standard deviations from the mean of the simulated correlation coefficients. These results indicate that using smaller polygons may not best incorporate the geographical context of the tick-borne disease system, despite the tendency of researchers to strive for more granular spatial data and associations.

Dynamics of eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States.

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and Culiseta melanura mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, similar to previous years, cases were driven by multiple independent but short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts was important for regional spread. We found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors which would explain the increase in cases in 2019, although the ecology of EEEV is complex and further data is required to explore these in more detail. By using detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut, however, we found that the abundance of Cs. melanura was exceptionally high in 2019, as was the EEEV infection rate. We employed these mosquito data to build a negative binomial regression model and applied it to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases. We found that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and vector index (abundance multiplied by infection rate) were predictive of cases later in the season. We therefore highlight the importance of mosquito surveillance programs as an integral part of public health and disease control.

Spatiotemporal distribution of Borrelia miyamotoi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) and coinfection with other tick-borne pathogens in host-seeking Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) from New York State, USA.

Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) were collected from 432 locations across New York State (NYS) during the summer and autumn of 2015-2020 to determine the prevalence and geographic distribution of Borrelia miyamotoi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) and coinfections with other tick-borne pathogens. A total of 48,386 I. scapularis were individually analyzed using a multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction assay to simultaneously detect the presence of Bo. miyamotoi, Borrelia burgdorferi (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae), Anaplasma phagocytophilum (Rickettsiales: Anaplasmataceae), and Babesia microti (Piroplasmida: Babesiidae). Overall prevalence of Bo. miyamotoi in host-seeking nymphs and adults varied geographically and temporally at the regional level. The rate of polymicrobial infection in Bo. miyamotoi-infected ticks varied by developmental stage, with certain co-infections occurring more frequently than expected by chance. Entomological risk of exposure to Bo. miyamotoi-infected nymphal and adult ticks (entomological risk index [ERI]) across NYS regions in relation to human cases of Bo. miyamotoi disease identified during the study period demonstrated spatial and temporal variation. The relationship between select environmental factors and Bo. miyamotoi ERI was explored using generalized linear mixed effects models, resulting in different factors significantly impacting ERI for nymphs and adult ticks. These results can inform estimates of Bo. miyamotoi disease risk and further our understanding of Bo. miyamotoi ecological dynamics in regions where this pathogen is known to occur.

Dynamics of Eastern equine encephalitis virus during the 2019 outbreak in the Northeast United States.

Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) causes a rare but severe disease in horses and humans, and is maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle between songbirds and Culiseta melanura mosquitoes. In 2019, the largest EEEV outbreak in the United States for more than 50 years occurred, centered in the Northeast. To explore the dynamics of the outbreak, we sequenced 80 isolates of EEEV and combined them with existing genomic data. We found that, like previous years, cases were driven by frequent short-lived virus introductions into the Northeast from Florida. Once in the Northeast, we found that Massachusetts was important for regional spread. We found no evidence of any changes in viral, human, or bird factors which would explain the increase in cases in 2019. By using detailed mosquito surveillance data collected by Massachusetts and Connecticut, however, we found that the abundance of Cs. melanura was exceptionally high in 2019, as was the EEEV infection rate. We employed these mosquito data to build a negative binomial regression model and applied it to estimate early season risks of human or horse cases. We found that the month of first detection of EEEV in mosquito surveillance data and vector index (abundance multiplied by infection rate) were predictive of cases later in the season. We therefore highlight the importance of mosquito surveillance programs as an integral part of public health and disease control.

Associations of Anaplasma phagocytophilum Bacteria Variants in Ixodes scapularis Ticks and Humans, New York, USA.

Anaplasmosis, caused by the tickborne bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum, is an emerging public health threat in the United States. In the northeastern United States, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) transmits the human pathogenic genetic variant of A. phagocytophilum (Ap-ha) and a nonpathogenic variant (Ap-V1). New York has recently experienced a rapid and geographically focused increase in cases of anaplasmosis. We analyzed A. phagocytophilum-infected I. scapularis ticks collected across New York during 2008-2020 to differentiate between variants and calculate an entomological risk index (ERI) for each. Ap-ha ERI varied between regions and increased in all regions during the final years of the study. Space-time scan analyses detected expanding clusters of Ap-ha located within documented anaplasmosis hotspots. Ap-ha ERI was more positively correlated with anaplasmosis incidence than non-genotyped A. phagocytophilum ERI. Our findings help elucidate the relationship between the spatial ecology of A. phagocytophilum variants and anaplasmosis.

Identification and characterization of novel lineage 1 Powassan virus strains in New York State.

Powassan virus (POWV, family Flaviviridae) is a reemerging tick-borne virus endemic in North America and Russia. In 1997, a POWV-like agent was isolated from Ixodes scapularis in New England and determined to be genetically distinct from the original POWV isolate. This revealed the existence of two lineages: lineage 1, prototype Powassan virus (POWV-1) and lineage 2, deer tick virus (DTV). POWV-1 is thought to be primarily maintained in a cycle between I. cookei and woodchucks and I. marxi and squirrels, while DTV is primarily maintained in a cycle between I. scapularis and small mammal hosts. Recent tick, mammalian, and human isolates from New York State (NYS) have been identified as DTV, but for the first time in 45 years, we detected four POWV-1 isolates, including the first reported isolation of POWV-1 from I. scapularis. We aimed to investigate genotypic and phenotypic characteristics of recent NYS isolates through sequence analysis and evaluation of replication kinetics in vitro and in vivo. Our sequencing revealed genetic divergence between NYS POWV-1 isolates, with two distinct foci. We found that POWV-1 isolates displayed variable replication kinetics in nymphal ticks but not in cell culture. POWV-1 isolated from I. scapularis displayed increased fitness in experimentally infected I. scapularis as compared to historic and recent POWV-1 isolates from I. cookei. These data suggest the emergence of divergent POWV-1 strains in alternate tick hosts and maintenance of genetically and phenotypically discrete POWV-1 foci.

Phylogeographic dynamics of the arthropod vector, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis).

BACKGROUND: The emergence of vector-borne pathogens in novel geographic areas is regulated by the migration of their arthropod vectors. Blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis) and the pathogens they vector, including the causative agents of Lyme disease, babesiosis and anaplasmosis, continue to grow in their population sizes and to expand in geographic range. Migration of this vector over the previous decades has been implicated as the cause of the re-emergence of the most prevalent infectious diseases in North America. METHODS: We systematically collected ticks from across New York State (hereafter referred to as New York) from 2004 to 2017 as part of routine tick-borne pathogen surveillance in the state. This time frame corresponds with an increase in range and incidence of tick-borne diseases within New York. We randomly sampled ticks from this collection to explore the evolutionary history and population dynamics of I. scapularis. We sequenced the mitochondrial genomes of each tick to characterize their current and historical spatial genetic structure and population growth using phylogeographic methods. RESULTS: We sequenced whole mitochondrial genomes from 277 ticks collected across New York between 2004 and 2017. We found evidence of population genetic structure at a broad geographic scale due to differences in the relative abundance, but not the composition, of haplotypes among sampled ticks. Ticks were often most closely related to ticks from the same and nearby collection sites. The data indicate that both short- and long-range migration events shape the population dynamics of blacklegged ticks in New York. CONCLUSIONS: We detailed the population dynamics of the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) in New York during a time frame in which tick-borne diseases were increasing in range and incidence. Migration of ticks occurred at both coarse and fine scales in the recent past despite evidence of limits to gene flow. Past and current tick population dynamics have implications for further range expansion as habitat suitability for ticks changes due to global climate change. Analyses of mitochondrial genome sequencing data will expound upon previously identified drivers of tick presence and abundance as well as identify additional drivers. These data provide a foundation on which to generate testable hypotheses on the drivers of tick population dynamics occurring at finer scales.

Predicting spatio-temporal population patterns of Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease pathogen.

The causative bacterium of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, expanded from an undetected human pathogen into the etiologic agent of the most common vector-borne disease in the United States over the last several decades. Systematic field collections of the tick vector reveal increases in the geographic range and prevalence of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks that coincided with increases in human Lyme disease incidence across New York State.We investigate the impact of environmental features on the population dynamics of B. burgdorferi. Analytical models developed using field collections of nearly 19,000 nymphal Ixodes scapularis and spatially and temporally explicit environmental features accurately explained the variation in the nymphal infection prevalence of B. burgdorferi across space and time.Importantly, the model identified environmental features reflecting landscape ecology, vertebrate hosts, climatic metrics, climate anomalies and surveillance efforts that can be used to predict the biogeographical patterns of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks into future years and in previously unsampled areas.Forecasting the distribution and prevalence of a pathogen at fine geographic scales offers a powerful strategy to mitigate a serious public health threat. Synthesis and applications. A decade of environmental and tick data was collected to create a model that accurately predicts the infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi over space and time. This predictive model can be extrapolated to create a high-resolution risk map of the Lyme disease pathogen for future years that offers an inexpensive approach to improve both ecological management and public health strategies to mitigate disease risk.

Epidemiology and Spatial Emergence of Anaplasmosis, New York, USA, 2010‒2018.

Human granulocytic anaplasmosis, a tickborne disease caused by the bacterium Anaplasma phagocytophilum, was first identified during 1994 and is now an emerging public health threat in the United States. New York state (NYS) has experienced a recent increase in the incidence of anaplasmosis. We analyzed human case surveillance and tick surveillance data collected by the NYS Department of Health for spatiotemporal patterns of disease emergence. We describe the epidemiology and growing incidence of anaplasmosis cases reported during 2010-2018. Spatial analysis showed an expanding hot spot of anaplasmosis in the Capital Region, where incidence increased >8-fold. The prevalence of A. phagocytophilum increased greatly within tick populations in the Capital Region over the same period, and entomologic risk factors were correlated with disease incidence at a local level. These results indicate that anaplasmosis is rapidly emerging in a geographically focused area of NYS, likely driven by localized changes in exposure risk.

A Comparative Spatial and Climate Analysis of Human Granulocytic Anaplasmosis and Human Babesiosis in New York State (2013-2018).

Human granulocytic anaplasmosis (HGA) and human babesiosis are tick-borne diseases spread by the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis Say, Acari: Ixodidae) and are the result of infection with Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia microti, respectively. In New York State (NYS), incidence rates of these diseases increased concordantly until around 2013, when rates of HGA began to increase more rapidly than human babesiosis, and the spatial extent of the diseases diverged. Surveillance data of tick-borne pathogens (2007 to 2018) and reported human cases of HGA (n = 4,297) and human babesiosis (n = 2,986) (2013-2018) from the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) showed a positive association between the presence/temporal emergence of each pathogen and rates of disease in surrounding areas. Incidence rates of HGA were higher than human babesiosis among White and non-Hispanic/non-Latino individuals, as well as all age and sex groups. Human babesiosis exhibited higher rates among non-White individuals. Climate, weather, and landscape data were used to build a spatially weighted zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model to examine and compare associations between the environment and rates of HGA and human babesiosis. HGA and human babesiosis ZINB models indicated similar associations with forest cover, forest land cover change, and winter minimum temperature; and differing associations with elevation, urban land cover change, and winter precipitation. These results indicate that tick-borne disease ecology varies between pathogens spread by I. scapularis.

Spatio-temporal variation in environmental features predicts the distribution and abundance of Ixodes scapularis.

Many species have experienced dramatic changes in both geographic range and population sizes in recent history. Increases in the geographic range or population size of disease vectors have public health relevance as these increases often precipitate the emergence of infectious diseases in human populations. Accurately identifying environmental factors affecting the biogeographic patterns of vector species is a long-standing analytical challenge, stemming from a paucity of data capturing periods of rapid changes in vector demographics. We systematically investigated the occurrence and abundance of nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks at 532 sampling locations throughout New York State (NY), USA, between 2008 and 2018, a time frame that encompasses the emergence of diseases vectored by these ticks. Analyses of these field-collected data demonstrated a range expansion into northern and western NY during the last decade. Nymphal abundances increased in newly colonised areas, while remaining stable in areas with long-standing populations over the last decade. These trends in the geographic range and abundance of nymphs correspond to both the geographic expansion of human Lyme disease cases and increases in incidence rates. Analytic models fitted to these data incorporating time, space, and environmental factors, accurately identified drivers of the observed changes in nymphal occurrence and abundance. These models accounted for the spatial and temporal variation in the occurrence and abundance of nymphs and can accurately predict nymphal population patterns in future years. Forecasting disease risk at fine spatial scales prior to the transmission season can influence both public health mitigation strategies and individual behaviours, potentially impacting tick-borne disease risk and subsequently human disease incidence.

Serologic Survey of Mosquito-Borne Viruses in Hunter-Harvested White-Tailed Deer (Odocoileus virginianus), New York State.

Sera from white-tailed deer (WTD, Odocoileus virginianus) hunter-harvested throughout New York State (NYS), 2007-2015, were tested by plaque reduction neutralization for antibodies against nine mosquito-borne viruses from the families Peribunyaviridae, Flaviviridae, and Togaviridae. Overall, 76.1% (373/490) of sampled WTD were seropositive against at least one virus, and 38.8% were exposed to multiple viruses. The seropositivity rate in adult WTD (78.0%) was significantly greater (P < 0.0001) than that in fawns (47.7%). Neutralizing antibodies against California serogroup viruses were most common in WTD sampled across all regions (67.1%), followed by the Bunyamwera serogroup (BUN) (37.6%). Jamestown Canyon and Cache Valley orthobunyaviruses were responsible for most California and BUN infections, respectively. Seroprevalence rates to West Nile virus were higher in samples originating from Long Island (LI) (19.0%) than in those originating from the central (7.3%), western (5.0%), and Hudson Valley (4.4%) regions of NYS. Antibodies to Eastern equine encephalitis virus were seen primarily in WTD from central NYS (5.1%), where annual enzootic activity occurs, but low rates were documented in western NYS (1.4%) and LI (1.7%). Low rates of Potosi and LaCrosse orthobunyavirus, and Highlands J virus antibodies were detected over the course of this investigation. St. Louis encephalitis virus (or a closely related virus) antibodies were detected in samples collected from central and western NYS, suggesting local virus transmission despite a lack of evidence from routine mosquito surveillance. Serologic results demonstrate the value of WTD in NYS as an indicator of arbovirus distribution and recent transmission on a relatively fine spatial scale.

Spatial and temporal expansions of Eastern equine encephalitis virus and phylogenetic groups isolated from mosquitoes and mammalian cases in New York State from 2013 to 2019.

Surveillance for the emerging infectious disease Eastern equine encephalitis, and its causative virus in mosquitoes, continued within New York State from 2013 to 2019. There were increases in geographic area and number of consecutive years, with cases in four mammalian species, and virus in 11 mosquito species. The first cases in a goat and in an emu were reported. The first detection of virus in Aedes cinereus was reported. Virus in phylogenetic group NY4 was isolated from a horse and from mosquitoes 6 kilometers and 13 days apart in 2013. Phylogenetic groups NY4 and NY5 were found 15 days apart in two towns 280 kilometers distant in 2013. Within four adjacent counties there was a pattern of overlap, where four had NY5, two adjacent counties had NY6, two adjacent counties had NY7, and one county had NY5, NY6, and NY7, reducible to a Euler diagram. Virus in phylogenetic group NY5, found within an 11-kilometer wide area in New York State, was related to FL4 found in Florida 1,398 kilometers distant. This was consistent with a phylogenetic group originating in Florida, then being moved to a specific location in New York State, by migratory birds in consecutive years 2013 and 2014.

Twenty years of surveillance for Eastern equine encephalitis virus in mosquitoes in New York State from 1993 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: The year 1971 was the first time in New York State (NYS) that Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) was identified in mosquitoes, in Culiseta melanura and Culiseta morsitans. At that time, state and county health departments began surveillance for EEEV in mosquitoes. METHODS: From 1993 to 2012, county health departments continued voluntary participation with the state health department in mosquito and arbovirus surveillance. Adult female mosquitoes were trapped, identified, and pooled. Mosquito pools were tested for EEEV by Vero cell culture each of the twenty years. Beginning in 2000, mosquito extracts and cell culture supernatant were tested by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). RESULTS: During the years 1993 to 2012, EEEV was identified in: Culiseta melanura, Culiseta morsitans, Coquillettidia perturbans, Aedes canadensis (Ochlerotatus canadensis), Aedes vexans, Anopheles punctipennis, Anopheles quadrimaculatus, Psorophora ferox, Culex salinarius, and Culex pipiens-restuans group. EEEV was detected in 427 adult mosquito pools of 107,156 pools tested totaling 3.96 million mosquitoes. Detections of EEEV occurred in three geographical regions of NYS: Sullivan County, Suffolk County, and the contiguous counties of Madison, Oneida, Onondaga and Oswego. Detections of EEEV in mosquitoes occurred every year from 2003 to 2012, inclusive. EEEV was not detected in 1995, and 1998 to 2002, inclusive. CONCLUSIONS: This was the first time in NYS that EEEV was detected in Cx. salinarius, Ps. ferox and An. punctipennis. The detection of EEEV in mosquitoes every year for 10 years was the longest time span since surveillance began in 1971. The calendar date of the earliest annual appearance of EEEV in mosquitoes did not change during surveillance spanning 42 years.

Geography and Timing of Cases of Eastern Equine Encephalitis in New York State from 1992 to 2012.

INTRODUCTION: In New York State (NYS), Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) was first reported in a human in 1971, in horses in 1970, and in pheasants in 1952. MATERIAL AND METHOD: Following work for the interval from 1970 to 1991, we identified cases in vertebrates from 1992 to 2012, through a passive surveillance system involving veterinarians in clinical practice, county health departments, and the Departments of Agriculture and Markets, Environmental Conservation, and Health, of the State of New York. RESULT: During an 11-year hiatus, from 1992 to 2002, no case in any vertebrate was observed. In a re-emergence, from 2003 to 2012, disease occurred in 12 counties, including 7 counties where disease had never been documented. Vertebrate cases included 4 cases in humans and 77 nonhuman occurrences; in 58 horses, Equus ferus caballus L.; 2 deer, Odocoileus virginianus Zimmermann; 6 dogs, Canis familiaris; 10 birds; and 1 flock of pheasants, Phasianus colchicus L. These were the first reported cases in NYS in white-tailed deer, the domestic dog, and in five species of birds: American crow, Corvus brachyrhynchos Brehm; American goldfinch, Carduelis tristis L.; bald eagle, Haliaeetus leucocephalus L.; blue jay, Cyanocitta cristata (L.); and red-tailed hawk, Buteo jamaicensis Gmelin. One crow was dually infected with EEE virus and West Nile virus. The northern, southern, and southeastern borders of the state were newly affected. CONCLUSION: The geographic area, time periods, and vertebrate species with risk of EEE disease expanded from 1992 to 2012.

Antibody and Viral Nucleic Acid Testing of Serum and Cerebrospinal Fluid for Diagnosis of Eastern Equine Encephalitis.

Eastern equine encephalitis diagnostic serum antibody can appear 6 days after the onset of symptoms, and its numbers can increase 4-fold in 4 days, arguing for early and frequent serum testing. In populations where cerebrospinal fluid viral nucleic acid testing sensitivity and specificity remain undetermined, cerebrospinal antibody testing should also be performed.

Enriching the care of patients with dementia in acute settings? The Dementia Champions Programme in Scotland.

Admission to hospital has been found to have a negative impact on people with dementia. The Scottish Dementia Champions programme was developed to prepare health and social service Dementia Champions working in acute settings as Change Agents. The programme was initially delivered to a cohort of 100 health professionals via blended learning, and comprised five study days, a half day spent in a local community setting, and e-learning. In order to complete the programme and graduate, participants were required to complete and submit reports relating to three work-based activities. The evaluation of the project adopted a two-pronged approach: Impact on programme participants was assessed by scores derived from the Approaches to Dementia Questionnaire (ADQ) (Lintern, 1996) completed at Study Days 1 and 5, and analysis of qualitative data derived from the three written assignments. Participants were asked to evaluate course materials and input for each of the five study days, as well as satisfaction with delivery. Analysis of data derived from the ADQ and 100 reflective reports of the community experience indicate that participants' perceptions of people with dementia shifted significantly during the Programme. Participants identified a range of issues which should be addressed with a view to improving the experiences of people with dementia in acute settings, and put in place actions to bring about change. The format of the programme provided a cost effective means to prepare NHS and Social Service Dementia Champions as Change Agents for practice within a relatively short period of time, and would be transferrable to other staff groups as well as different organisational structures in other countries.

Assessing the use of diurnal resting shelters by Culiseta melanura (Diptera: Culicidae).

Twenty resting shelters were set on the edge of a known Culiseta breeding habitat in four groups of five to support a 4 x 4 Latin square field experiment. Collection times were 0900, 1100, 1300, and 1500 hours and systematically rotated for the order by which each group of five boxes was collected. Mosquitoes were collected from resting shelters by chloroform anesthetization. Collections were identified to species, sex, and physiological status of the females (nonblooded or blood-fed and gravid). More than 77% of the mosquitoes collected were Culiseta melanura (Coquillett). Analyses included means and SE for total collections and shelter-day (number collected per units) and means comparison by t-test and general linear model with Student-Newman-Keuls or least significant differences means tests for replicate, group, time, and interactions of time and group. There were few significant differences among or between shelter-day means but more blood-fed and gravid female Cs. melanura were collected at 1300 hours than any other time. Results confirm the effectiveness of resting shelters in a surveillance program for Cs. melanura, demonstrate the flexibility of resting shelters as a surveillance tool, and suggest that Cs. melanura will move to more acceptable resting sites during daylight.