The treatment of missing data in a large cardiovascular clinical outcomes study.

BACKGROUND: The potential impact of missing data on the results of clinical trials has received heightened attention recently. A National Research Council study provides recommendations for limiting missing data in clinical trial design and conduct, and principles for analysis, including the need for sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of findings to alternative assumptions about the missing data. A Food and Drug Administration advisory committee raised missing data as a serious concern in their review of results from the ATLAS ACS 2 TIMI 51 study, a large clinical trial that assessed rivaroxaban for its ability to reduce the risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients with acute coronary syndrome. This case study describes a variety of measures that were taken to address concerns about the missing data. METHODS: A range of analyses are described to assess the potential impact of missing data on conclusions. In particular, measures of the amount of missing data are discussed, and the fraction of missing information from multiple imputation is proposed as an alternative measure. The sensitivity analysis in the National Research Council study is modified in the context of survival analysis where some individuals are lost to follow-up. The impact of deviations from ignorable censoring is assessed by differentially increasing the hazard of the primary outcome in the treatment groups and multiply imputing events between dropout and the end of the study. Tipping-point analyses are described, where the deviation from ignorable censoring that results in a reversal of significance of the treatment effect is determined. A study to determine the vital status of participants lost to follow-up was also conducted, and the results of including this additional information are assessed. RESULTS: Sensitivity analyses suggest that findings of the ATLAS ACS 2 TIMI 51 study are robust to missing data; this robustness is reinforced by the follow-up study, since inclusion of data from this study had little impact on the study conclusions. CONCLUSION: Missing data are a serious problem in clinical trials. The methods presented here, namely, the sensitivity analyses, the follow-up study to determine survival of missing cases, and the proposed measurement of missing data via the fraction of missing information, have potential application in other studies involving survival analysis where missing data are a concern.

Rivaroxaban: a novel oral anticoagulant for the prevention and treatment of several thrombosis-mediated conditions.

The development of rivaroxaban (XARELTO®) is an important new medical advance in the field of oral anticoagulation. Thrombosis-mediated conditions constitute a major burden for patients, healthcare systems, and society. For more than 60 years, the prevention and treatment of these conditions have been dominated by oral vitamin K antagonists (such as warfarin) and the injectable heparins. Thrombosis can lead to several conditions, including deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, stroke, and/or death. Prevention and treatment of thrombosis with an effective, convenient-to-use oral anticoagulant with a favorable safety profile is critical, especially in an aging society in which the risk of thrombosis, and the potential for bleeding complications, is increasing. Rivaroxaban acts to prevent and treat thrombosis by potently inhibiting coagulation Factor Xa in the blood. Factor Xa converts prothrombin to thrombin, which initiates the formation of blood clots by converting fibrinogen to clot-forming fibrin and leads to platelet activation. After a large and novel clinical development program in over 75,000 patients to date, rivaroxaban has received approval for multiple indications in the United States, European Union, and other countries worldwide to prevent and treat several thrombosis-mediated conditions. This review will highlight some of the unique aspects of the rivaroxaban development program.

Antithrombotic therapies in patients with heart failure: hypothesis formulation from a research database.

PURPOSE: Heart failure is a significant public health problem. The present study is intended to explore in a research database whether antithrombotic therapies (ATTs) affect cardiovascular outcomes in patients with incident heart failure (IHF). METHODS: Using the United Kingdom Health Improvement Network research database, several multivariable models (including logistic and Cox's regression models, as well as propensity score methods) were used to examine all-cause mortality and clinical outcomes among five treatment groups. RESULTS: The cohort included 24,554 patients with IHF (50.2% men), with a mean age (standard deviation [SD]) of 76.4 (11.0) years. Nearly three-fourths of patients received at least one form of ATT. Patients receiving ATTs tended to be younger and more likely to be men, and had more cardiovascular comorbidities. During the 18-month follow-up period, the mortality rates were 11.1%, 14.6%, 17.8%, 19.5%, and 32.6% for warfarin combination therapy, warfarin alone, clopidogrel therapy, aspirin (ASA) alone, and no therapy, respectively, yielding odds ratios (95%confidence intervals [CI]) relative to no therapy of 0.28 (0.24, 0.33), 0.38 (0.34, 0.43), 0.46 (0.40, 0.52), and 0.49 (0.45, 0.53) for each therapy group, accordingly. The use of ATTs also appeared to be associated with a reduced risk for ischemic or thrombotic events. CONCLUSIONS: These data contribute to the formulation of the hypothesis that use of ATTs in clinical practice decreases the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with IHF, although findings require further confirmative studies.