Active living research: creating and using evidence to support childhood obesity prevention.

The second phase of Active Living Research (ALR-2, 2007-2012) focused on advancing the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF)'s goal of reversing the childhood obesity epidemic. The mission was to stimulate and support research to identify environmental factors and policies that influence physical activity for children and families to inform effective childhood obesity prevention strategies, with an emphasis on the lower-income and racial/ethnic communities with highest childhood obesity prevalence. The present report describes ALR activities undertaken to accomplish three goals. The first goal-to build an evidence base-was furthered by funding 230 competitive grants to identify and evaluate promising environment and policy changes. More than 300 publications have been produced so far. The second goal-to build an interdisciplinary and diverse field of investigators-was supported through annual conferences and linked journal supplements, academic outreach to multiple disciplines, and grants targeting young investigators and those representing groups historically disadvantaged or underrepresented in RWJF-funded research. The third goal-to use research to inform policy and practice-was advanced through research briefs; webinars; research-translation grants supporting ALR grantees to design communications tailored to decision-maker audiences; active engagement of policymakers and other stakeholders in ALR program meetings and annual conferences; ALR presentations at policy-related meetings; and broad outreach through a widely used website, e-mailed newsletters, and social media. ALR-2 findings and products have contributed to a rapid increase in the evidence base and field of active living research, as documented by an independent program evaluation.

Childhood obesity policy research and practice: evidence for policy and environmental strategies.

Investigators developed a review system to evaluate the growing literature on policy and environmental strategies to prevent childhood obesity. More than 2000 documents published between January 2000 and May 2009 in the scientific and grey literature were identified (2008-2009) and systematically analyzed (2009-2012). These focused on policy or environmental strategies to reduce obesity/overweight, increase physical activity, and/or improve nutrition/diet among youth (aged 3-18 years). Guided by the RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance) framework, investigators abstracted studies of 24 intervention strategies and assessed evidence for their effectiveness (i.e., study design, intervention duration, and outcomes) and population impact (i.e., effectiveness and reach--participation or exposure, and representativeness) in 142 evaluation study groupings and 254 associational study groupings (n=396 groupings of 600 peer-reviewed studies). The 24 strategies yielded 25 classifications (school wellness policies yielded nutrition and physical activity classifications): 1st-tier effective (n=5); 2nd-tier effective (n=6); "promising" (n=5); or "emerging" (n=9). Evidence for intervention effectiveness was reported in 56% of the evaluation, and 77% of the associational, study groupings. Among the evaluation study groupings, only 49% reported sufficient data for population impact ratings, and only 22% qualified for a rating of high population impact. Effectiveness and impact ratings were summarized in graphic evidence maps, displaying effects/associations with behavioral and obesity/overweight outcomes. This paper describes the results and products of the review, with recommendations for policy research and practice.

The caloric calculator: average caloric impact of childhood obesity interventions.

BACKGROUND: The childhood obesity epidemic reflects the daily accumulation of an "energy gap"-excess calories consumed over calories expended. Population-level interventions to reverse the epidemic can be assessed by the degree to which they increase energy expenditure and/or reduce caloric intake. However, no common metric exists for such comparative assessment. PURPOSE: To develop a common metric, the Average Caloric Impact (ACI), for estimating and comparing population-level effect sizes of a range of childhood obesity interventions. METHODS: An iterative, collaborative process was used to review literature from 1996 to 2012 and select illustrative interventions showing effects on youth diet and/or activity levels, energy balance, and weight. The ACIs of physical activity interventions were estimated based on program reach, frequency, duration, and intensity and mean body weight of the targeted age and gender group from the 2009-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. ACIs of dietary interventions were based on reach and changes in foods and/or beverages consumed. RESULTS: Fifteen interventions informed by 29 studies were included, ranging from individual behavioral to population-level policies. A web tool, the Caloric Calculator, was developed to allow researchers and policymakers to estimate the ACIs of interventions on target populations with reference to energy gap reductions required to reach the nation's Healthy People childhood obesity goals. CONCLUSIONS: The Caloric Calculator and ACIs provide researchers and policymakers with a common metric for estimating the potential effect sizes of various interventions for reducing childhood obesity, providing a platform for evidence-based dialogues on new program or policy approaches as data emerge.

Stand-alone mass media campaigns to increase physical activity: a Community Guide updated review.

CONTEXT: The goal of the systematic review described in this summary was to determine the effectiveness of stand-alone mass media campaigns to increase physical activity at the population level. This systematic review is an update of a Community Guide systematic review and Community Preventive Services Task Force recommendation completed in 2001. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: Updated searches for literature published from 1980 to 2008 were conducted in 11 databases. Of 267 articles resulting from the literature search, 16 were selected for full abstraction, including the three studies from the original 2001 review. Standard Community Guide methods were used to conduct the systematic evidence review. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Physical activity outcomes were assessed using a variety of self-report measures with duration intervals ranging from 6 weeks to 4 years. Ten studies using comparable outcome measures documented a median absolute increase of 3.4 percentage points (interquartile interval: 2.4 to 4.2 percentage points), and a median relative increase of 6.7% (interquartile interval: 3.0% to 14.1%), in self-reported physical activity levels. The remaining six studies used alternative outcome measures: three evaluated changes in self-reported time spent in physical activity (median relative change, 4.4%; range of values, 3.1%-18.2%); two studies used a single outcome measure and found that participants reported being more active after the campaign than before it; and one study found that a mass media weight-loss program led to a self-reported increase in physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this updated systematic review show that intervention effects, based wholly on self-reported measures, were modest and inconsistent. These findings did not lead the Task Force to change its earlier conclusion of insufficient evidence to determine the effectiveness of stand-alone mass media campaigns to increase physical activity. This paper also discusses areas needing future research to strengthen the evidence base. Finally, studies published between 2009 and 2011, after the Task Force finding was reached, and briefly summarized here, are shown to support that finding.

Reaching the healthy people goals for reducing childhood obesity: closing the energy gap.

BACKGROUND: The federal government has set measurable goals for reducing childhood obesity to 5% by 2010 (Healthy People 2010), and 10% lower than 2005-2008 levels by 2020 (Healthy People 2020). However, population-level estimates of the changes in daily energy balance needed to reach these goals are lacking. PURPOSE: To estimate needed per capita reductions in youths' daily "energy gap" (calories consumed over calories expended) to achieve Healthy People goals by 2020. METHODS: Analyses were conducted in 2010 to fit multivariate models using National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1971-2008 (N=46,164) to extrapolate past trends in obesity prevalence, weight, and BMI among youth aged 2-19 years. Differences in average daily energy requirements between the extrapolated 2020 levels and Healthy People scenarios were estimated. RESULTS: During 1971-2008, mean BMI and weight among U.S. youth increased by 0.55 kg/m(2) and by 1.54 kg per decade, respectively. Extrapolating from these trends to 2020, the average weight among youth in 2020 would increase by ∼1.8 kg from 2007-2008 levels. Averting this increase will require an average reduction of 41 kcal/day in youth's daily energy gap. An additional reduction of 120 kcal/day and 23 kcal/day would be needed to reach Healthy People 2010 and Healthy People 2020 goals, respectively. Larger reductions are needed among adolescents and racial/ethnic minority youth. CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive efforts are needed to reverse the positive energy imbalance underlying the childhood obesity epidemic. The energy-gap metric provides a useful tool for goal setting, intervention planning, and charting progress.

Accelerating evidence reviews and broadening evidence standards to identify effective, promising, and emerging policy and environmental strategies for prevention of childhood obesity.

The childhood obesity epidemic has stimulated the emergence of many policy and environmental strategies to increase healthy eating and active living, with relatively few research recommendations identifying the most effective and generalizable strategies. Yet, local, state, and national decision makers have an urgent need to take action, particularly with respect to lower-income and racial and ethnic populations at greatest risk. With the surge of promising and emerging policy and environmental strategies, this review provides a framework, criteria, and process modeled from existing expert classification systems to assess the strength of evidence for these strategies. Likewise, this review highlights evidence gaps and ways to increase the types and amount of evidence available to inform policy and environmental strategies. These priorities include documenting independent and interdependent effects, determining applicability to different populations and settings, assessing implementation fidelity and feasibility, identifying cumulative benefits and costs, ascertaining impacts on health equity, and tracking sustainability.

Exploring scenarios to dramatically reduce smoking prevalence: a simulation model of the three-part cessation process.

OBJECTIVES: We used a simulation model to analyze whether the Healthy People 2010 goal of reducing smoking prevalence from the current 19.8% rate to 12% by 2010 could be accomplished by increasing quit attempts, increasing the use of treatments, or increasing the effectiveness of treatment. METHODS: We expanded on previous versions of the tobacco control simulation model SimSmoke to assess the effects of an increase in quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness to reduce smoking prevalence. In the model, we considered increases in each of these parameters individually and in combination. RESULTS: Individually, 100% increases in quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness reduced the projected 2020 prevalence to 13.9%, 16.7%, and 15.9%, respectively. With a combined 100% increase in all components, the goal of a 12% adult smoking prevalence could be reached by 2012. CONCLUSIONS: If we are to come close to reaching Healthy People 2010 goals in the foreseeable future, we must not only induce quit attempts but also increase treatment use and effectiveness. Simulation models provide a useful tool for evaluating the potential to reach public health targets.

Science, prudence, and politics: the case of smoke-free indoor spaces.

PURPOSE: We examine the process of how epidemiologic evidence regarding the harms of secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure has been translated into policy and distill lessons that could be applied to other public health areas. METHODS: We detail the history of the growth of evidence and the development of prudent policies in this area and the parallel, organized efforts led by the tobacco industry to oppose them. We also describe how opposition to these policies helped shape the emerging research agenda. RESULTS: Seven lessons emerged from our study. (i) Even after a policy goal has been achieved, the need for epidemiological evidence and inquiry remains. (ii) Dissemination and implementation research is necessary. (iii) The best and most necessary research questions do not always come from epidemiologists. (iv) There is a need for epidemiologists to work with other researchers across disciplines. (v) Epidemiologists must anticipate the opposition. (vi) Focused, well-organized advocacy is needed to translate even the strongest epidemiological evidence into policy change. (vii) Epidemiologists should be trained to engage and interact with public health advocates, practitioners, and policy makers. CONCLUSIONS: Although this case study shows that policy can be driven by science, it also demonstrates that clear scientific evidence does not automatically lead to optimal policy.

Boosting population quits through evidence-based cessation treatment and policy.

Only large increases in adult cessation will rapidly reduce population smoking prevalence. Evidence-based smoking-cessation treatments and treatment policies exist but are underutilized. More needs to be done to coordinate the widespread, efficient dissemination and implementation of effective treatments and policies. This paper is the first in a series of three to demonstrate the impact of an integrated, comprehensive systems approach to cessation treatment and policy. This paper provides an analytic framework and selected literature review that guide the two subsequent computer simulation modeling papers to show how critical leverage points may have an impact on reductions in smoking prevalence. Evidence is reviewed from the U.S. Public Health Service 2008 clinical practice guideline and other sources regarding the impact of five cessation treatment policies on quit attempts, use of evidence-based treatment, and quit rates. Cessation treatment policies would: (1) expand cessation treatment coverage and provider reimbursement; (2) mandate adequate funding for the use and promotion of evidence-based state-sponsored telephone quitlines; (3) support healthcare systems changes to prompt, guide, and incentivize tobacco treatment; (4) support and promote evidence-based treatment via the Internet; and (5) improve individually tailored, stepped-care approaches and the long-term effectiveness of evidence-based treatments. This series of papers provides an analytic framework to inform heuristic simulation models in order to take a new look at ways to markedly increase population smoking cessation by implementing a defined set of treatments and treatment-related policies with the potential to improve motivation to quit, evidence-based treatment use, and long-term effectiveness.

Reaching Healthy People 2010 by 2013: A SimSmoke simulation.

BACKGROUND: Healthy People (HP2010) set as a goal to reduce adult smoking prevalence to 12% by 2010. PURPOSE: This paper uses simulation modeling to examine the effects of three tobacco control policies and cessation treatment policies-alone and in conjunction-on population smoking prevalence. METHODS: Building on previous versions of the SimSmoke model, the effects of a defined set of policies on quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness are estimated as potential levers to reduce smoking prevalence. The analysis considers the effects of (1) price increases through cigarette tax increases, (2) smokefree indoor air laws, (3) mass media/educational policies, and (4) evidence-based and promising cessation treatment policies. RESULTS: Evidence-based cessation treatment policies have the strongest effect, boosting the population quit rate by 78.8% in relative terms. Treatment policies are followed by cigarette tax increases (65.9%); smokefree air laws (31.8%); and mass media/educational policies (18.2%). Relative to the status quo in 2020, the model projects that smoking prevalence is reduced by 14.3% through a nationwide tax increase of $2.00, by 7.2% through smokefree laws, by 4.7% through mass media/educational policies, and by 16.5% through cessation treatment policies alone. Implementing all of the above policies at the same time would increase the quit rate by 296%, such that the HP2010 smoking prevalence goal of 12% is reached by 2013. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of a combination of policies led to some surprisingly positive possible futures in lowering smoking prevalence to 12% within just several years. Simulation models can be a useful tool for evaluating complex scenarios in which policies are implemented simultaneously, and for which there are limited data.

Modeling the impact of smoking-cessation treatment policies on quit rates.

BACKGROUND: Smoking-cessation treatment policies could yield substantial increases in adult quit rates in the U.S. PURPOSE: The goals of this paper are to model the effects of individual cessation treatment policies on population quit rates, and to illustrate the potential benefits of combining policies to leverage their synergistic effects. METHODS: A mathematical model is updated to examine the impact of five cessation treatment policies on quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness. Policies include: (1) expand cessation treatment coverage and provider reimbursement; (2) mandate adequate funding for the use and promotion of evidence-based, state-sponsored telephone quitlines; (3) support healthcare system changes to prompt, guide, and incentivize tobacco treatment; (4) support and promote evidence-based treatment via the Internet; and (5) improve individually tailored, stepped-care approaches and the long-term effectiveness of evidence-based treatments. RESULTS: The annual baseline population quit rate is 4.3% of all current smokers. Implementing any policy in isolation is projected to increase the quit rate to between 4.5% and 6%. By implementing all five policies in combination, the quit rate is projected to increase to 10.9%, or 2.5 times the baseline rate. CONCLUSIONS: If fully implemented in a coordinated fashion, cessation treatment policies could reduce smoking prevalence from its current rate of 20.5% to 17.2% within 1 year. By modeling the policy impacts on the components of the population quit rate (quit attempts, treatment use, treatment effectiveness), key indicators are identified that need to be analyzed in attempts to improve the effect of cessation treatment policies.