Elimination of Onchocerciasis from Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Mexico is one of the six countries formerly endemic for onchocerciasis in Latin America. Transmission has been interrupted in the three endemic foci of that country and mass drug distribution has ceased. Three years after mass drug distribution ended, post-treatment surveillance (PTS) surveys were undertaken which employed entomological indicators to check for transmission recrudescence. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In-depth entomologic assessments were performed in 18 communities in the three endemic foci of Mexico. None of the 108,212 Simulium ochraceum s.l. collected from the three foci were found to contain parasite DNA when tested by polymerase chain reaction-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (PCR-ELISA), resulting in a maximum upper bound of the 95% confidence interval (95%-ULCI) of the infective rate in the vectors of 0.035/2,000 flies examined. This is an order of magnitude below the threshold of a 95%-ULCI of less than one infective fly per 2,000 flies tested, the current entomological criterion for interruption of transmission developed by the international community. The point estimate of seasonal transmission potential (STP) was zero, and the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval for the STP ranged from 1.2 to 1.7 L3/person/season in the different foci. This value is below all previous estimates for the minimum transmission potential required to maintain the parasite population. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results from the in-depth entomological post treatment surveillance surveys strongly suggest that transmission has not resumed in the three foci of Mexico during the three years since the last distribution of ivermectin occurred; it was concluded that transmission remains undetectable without intervention, and Onchocerca volvulus has been eliminated from Mexico.

Time series analysis of onchocerciasis data from Mexico: a trend towards elimination.

BACKGROUND: In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. RESULTS: A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. CONCLUSION: The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance.

Interruption of transmission of Onchocerca volvulus in the Oaxaca focus, Mexico.

All endemic communities of the Oaxaca focus of onchocerciasis in southern Mexico have been treated annually or semi-annually with ivermectin since 1994. In-depth epidemiologic assessments were performed in communities during 2007 and 2008. None of the 52,632 Simulium ochraceum s.l. collected in four sentinel communities was found to contain parasite DNA when tested by polymerase chain reaction-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (PCR-ELISA), resulting in an upper bound of the infection rate in the vectors of 0.07/2,000. The prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the cornea and/or anterior chamber of the eye was also zero (0 of 1,039 residents examined; 95%-UL = 0.35%). Similarly, all 1,164 individuals examined by skin biopsy were mf negative (95%-UL = 0.31%), and sera collected from 3,569 children from 25 communities did not harbor Ov16 IgG4-antibodies (95%-UL = 0.09%). These meet the criteria for absence of morbidity and parasite transmission in the Oaxaca focus. As a result mass treatments with ivermectin were halted in 2009.