The impact of global lineage dynamics, border restrictions, and emergence of the B.1.1.7 lineage on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Norway.

As the COVID-19 pandemic swept through an immunologically naïve human population, academics and public health professionals scrambled to establish methods and platforms for genomic surveillance and data sharing. This offered a rare opportunity to study the ecology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 over the course of the ongoing pandemic. Here, we use population genetic and phylogenetic methodology to characterize the population dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and reconstruct patterns of virus introductions and local transmission in Norway against this backdrop. The analyses demonstrated that the epidemic in Norway was largely import driven and characterized by the repeated introduction, establishment, and suppression of new transmission lineages. This pattern changed with the arrival of the B.1.1.7 lineage, which was able to establish a stable presence concomitant with the imposition of severe border restrictions.

Evolution and emergence of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Chisinau, Moldova.

The evolution and emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) has been studied extensively in some contexts, but the ecological drivers of these two processes remain poorly understood. This study sought to describe the joint evolutionary and epidemiological histories of a novel multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain recently identified in the capital city of the Republic of Moldova (MDR Ural/4.2), where genomic surveillance of drug-resistant M. tuberculosis has been limited thus far. Using whole genome sequence data and Bayesian phylogenomic methods, we reconstruct the stepwise acquisition of drug resistance mutations in the MDR Ural/4.2 strain, estimate its historical bacterial population size over time, and infer the migration history of this strain between Eastern European countries. We infer that MDR Ural/4.2 likely evolved (via acquisition of rpoB S450L, which confers resistance to rifampin) in the early 1990s, during a period of social turmoil following Moldovan independence from the Soviet Union. This strain subsequently underwent substantial population size expansion in the early 2000s, at a time when national guidelines encouraged inpatient treatment of TB patients. We infer exportation of this strain and its isoniazid-resistant ancestral precursor from Moldova to neighbouring countries starting as early as 1985. Our findings suggest temporal and ecological associations between specific public health practices, including inpatient hospitalization of drug-resistant TB cases from the early 2000s until 2013, and the evolution of drug-resistant M. tuberculosis in Moldova. These findings underscore the need for regional coordination in TB control and expanded genomic surveillance efforts across Eastern Europe.

Antibiotic Treatment Regimes as a Driver of the Global Population Dynamics of a Major Gonorrhea Lineage.

The Neisseria gonorrhoeae multilocus sequence type (ST) 1901 is among the lineages most commonly associated with treatment failure. Here, we analyze a global collection of ST-1901 genomes to shed light on the emergence and spread of alleles associated with reduced susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs). The genetic diversity of ST-1901 falls into a minor and a major clade, both of which were inferred to have originated in East Asia. The dispersal of the major clade from Asia happened in two separate waves expanding from ∼1987 and 1996, respectively. Both waves first reached North America, and from there spread to Europe and Oceania, with multiple secondary reintroductions to Asia. The ancestor of the second wave acquired the penA 34.001 allele, which significantly reduces susceptibility to ESCs. Our results suggest that the acquisition of this allele granted the second wave a fitness advantage at a time when ESCs became the key drug class used to treat gonorrhea. Following its establishment globally, the lineage has served as a reservoir for the repeated emergence of clones fully resistant to the ESC ceftriaxone, an essential drug for effective treatment of gonorrhea. We infer that the effective population sizes of both clades went into decline as treatment schemes shifted from fluoroquinolones via ESC monotherapy to dual therapy with ceftriaxone and azithromycin in Europe and the United States. Despite the inferred recent population size decline, the short evolutionary path from the penA 34.001 allele to alleles providing full ceftriaxone resistance is a cause of concern.

Sudden emergence of a Neisseria gonorrhoeae clade with reduced susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins, Norway.

Neisseria gonorrhoeae multilocus sequence type (ST)-7827 emerged in a dramatic fashion in Norway in the period 2016-2018. Here, we aim to shed light on the provenance and expansion of this ST. ST-7827 was found to be polyphyletic, but the majority of members belonged to a monophyletic clade we termed PopPUNK cluster 7827 (PC-7827). In Norway, both PC-7827 and ST-7827 isolates were almost exclusively isolated from men. Phylogeographical analyses demonstrated an Asian origin of the genogroup, with multiple inferred exports to Europe and the USA. The genogroup was uniformly resistant to fluoroquinolones, and associated with reduced susceptibility to both azithromycin and the extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs) cefixime and ceftriaxone. From a genetic background including the penA allele 13.001, associated with reduced ESC susceptibility, we identified repeated events of acquisition of porB alleles associated with further reduction in ceftriaxone susceptibility. Transmission of the strain was significantly reduced in Norway in 2019, but our results indicate the existence of a recently established global reservoir. The worrisome drug-resistance profile and rapid emergence of PC-7827 calls for close monitoring of the situation.