Hydroclimate footprint of pan-Asian monsoon water isotope during the last deglaciation.

Oxygen isotope speleothem records exhibit coherent variability over the pan-Asian summer monsoon (AM) region. The hydroclimatic representation of these oxygen isotope records for the AM, however, has remained poorly understood. Here, combining an isotope-enabled Earth system model in transient experiments with proxy records, we show that the widespread AM δ18Oc signal during the last deglaciation (20 to 11 thousand years ago) is accompanied by a continental-scale, coherent hydroclimate footprint, with spatially opposite signs in rainfall. This footprint is generated as a dynamically coherent response of the AM system primarily to meltwater forcing and secondarily to insolation forcing and is further reinforced by atmospheric teleconnection. Hence, widespread δ18Op depletion in the AM region is accompanied by a northward migration of the westerly jet and enhanced southwesterly monsoon wind, as well as increased rainfall from South Asia (India) to northern China but decreased rainfall in southeast China.

Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates.

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129-116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.

Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth's dominant source of interannual climate variability, but its response to global warming remains highly uncertain. To improve our understanding of ENSO's sensitivity to external climate forcing, it is paramount to determine its past behaviour by using palaeoclimate data and model simulations. Palaeoclimate records show that ENSO has varied considerably since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago), and some data sets suggest a gradual intensification of ENSO over the past ∼6,000 years. Previous attempts to simulate the transient evolution of ENSO have relied on simplified models or snapshot experiments. Here we analyse a series of transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations forced by changes in greenhouse gasses, orbital forcing, the meltwater discharge and the ice-sheet history throughout the past 21,000 years. Consistent with most palaeo-ENSO reconstructions, our model simulates an orbitally induced strengthening of ENSO during the Holocene epoch, which is caused by increasing positive ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. During the early deglaciation, ENSO characteristics change drastically in response to meltwater discharges and the resulting changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and equatorial annual cycle. Increasing deglacial atmospheric CO2 concentrations tend to weaken ENSO, whereas retreating glacial ice sheets intensify ENSO. The complex evolution of forcings and ENSO feedbacks and the uncertainties in the reconstruction further highlight the challenge and opportunity for constraining future ENSO responses.

A major advance of tropical Andean glaciers during the Antarctic cold reversal.

The Younger Dryas stadial, a cold event spanning 12,800 to 11,500 years ago, during the last deglaciation, is thought to coincide with the last major glacial re-advance in the tropical Andes. This interpretation relies mainly on cosmic-ray exposure dating of glacial deposits. Recent studies, however, have established new production rates for cosmogenic (10)Be and (3)He, which make it necessary to update all chronologies in this region and revise our understanding of cryospheric responses to climate variability. Here we present a new (10)Be moraine chronology in Colombia showing that glaciers in the northern tropical Andes expanded to a larger extent during the Antarctic cold reversal (14,500 to 12,900 years ago) than during the Younger Dryas. On the basis of a homogenized chronology of all (10)Be and (3)He moraine ages across the tropical Andes, we show that this behaviour was common to the northern and southern tropical Andes. Transient simulations with a coupled global climate model suggest that the common glacier behaviour was the result of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability superimposed on a deglacial increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. During the Antarctic cold reversal, glaciers advanced primarily in response to cold sea surface temperatures over much of the Southern Hemisphere. During the Younger Dryas, however, northern tropical Andes glaciers retreated owing to abrupt regional warming in response to reduced precipitation and land-surface feedbacks triggered by a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Conversely, glacier retreat during the Younger Dryas in the southern tropical Andes occurred as a result of progressive warming, probably influenced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Considered with evidence from mid-latitude Andean glaciers, our results argue for a common glacier response to cold conditions in the Antarctic cold reversal exceeding that of the Younger Dryas.

Transient simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for Bolling-Allerod warming.

We conducted the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Bølling-Allerød (BA) warming. Our model reproduces several major features of the deglacial climate evolution, suggesting a good agreement in climate sensitivity between the model and observations. In particular, our model simulates the abrupt BA warming as a transient response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden termination of freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic before the BA. In contrast to previous mechanisms that invoke AMOC multiple equilibrium and Southern Hemisphere climate forcing, we propose that the BA transition is caused by the superposition of climatic responses to the transient CO(2) forcing, the AMOC recovery from Heinrich Event 1, and an AMOC overshoot.