Bayesian evaluation of temporal changes in sensitivity and specificity of three serological tests for multiple circulating strains of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus.

Competition and indirect ELISAs are currently being used to monitor rabbit haemorrhagic disease viruses (RHDV1 and RHDV2) in rabbits worldwide. Temporal changes in the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of RHDV1 competition-ELISA (cELISA1), RHDV2 competition-ELISA (cELISA2), and RHDV1 Immunoglobulin G (IgG1) ELISA, were investigated using Bayesian Latent Class models (BCLM) in the Australian wild rabbit population where both viruses circulate simultaneously and a long-term serological dataset exists. When cELISA1 was compared to IgG1 ELISA, the Se of cELISA1 improved while the Sp of IgG1 ELISA declined over the 2011-21. This corresponded with a decline in the true RHDV1 prevalence in 2018-21, suggesting that a large proportion of RHDV1 exposed rabbits survived the introduction and dominance of RHDV2 up to approximately 2017/2018, after which they died and were not replaced. The Se and Sp estimates for 2014-15 for both cELISA1 and IgG1 ELISA, and the true prevalence when analysing all three tests together were similar to those obtained from the analysis of cELISA1/IgG1 ELISA. The same was also true for the Se and Sp of cELISA2 and IgG1 ELISA estimates from 2018 onwards. This suggests that RHDV1 was the dominant infection type in 2014-15, but RHDV2 was the dominant infection type in 2018-21. Further, the increase in Se of cELISA2 and the low Sp of IgG1 ELISA in the cELISA2/IgG1 ELISA analysis, compared to the Se of cELISA2 and Sp of IgG1 ELISA when analysing all three tests together suggests that the underlying infection status was more influenced by RHDV2 and that the higher Se of IgG1 ELISA is due to cross-reaction of RHDV2 antibodies on IgG1 ELISA. The true prevalence data suggest that RHDV2 exposure peaked in 2017. Our findings show that test characteristics changed in response to the changing virus prevalences over time. IgG1 ELISA, currently having a high Se, should be used to monitor both viruses and will perform better than both cELISAs.

Cross-protection, infection and case fatality rates in wild European rabbits experimentally challenged with different rabbit haemorrhagic disease viruses.

Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2) is now the dominant calicivirus circulating in wild rabbit populations in Australia. This study compared the infection and case fatality rates of RHDV2 and two RHDVs in wild rabbits, as well as their ability to overcome immunity to the respective other strains. Wild rabbits were allocated to groups either blindly or based on pre-screening for RHDV/RHDV2 antibodies at capture. Rabbits were monitored regularly until their death or humane killing at 7 days post infection. Liver and eyeball samples were collected for lagovirus testing and aging rabbits, respectively. At capture, rabbits showed high seroprevalence to RHDV2 but not to RHDV. In RHDV/RHDV2 seronegative rabbits at capture, infection rates were highest in those inoculated with RHDV2 (81.8%, 18 out of 22), followed by K5 (53.8%, seven out of 13) and CZECH (40.0%, two out of five), but these differences were not statistically significant. In rabbits with previous exposure to RHDV2 at capture, infection rates were highest when inoculated with K5 (59.6%, 31 out of 52) followed by CZECH (46.0%, 23 out of 50), with infection rates higher in younger rabbits for both viruses. In RHDV/RHDV2 seronegative rabbits at capture, case fatality rates were highest for those inoculated with K5 (71.4%), followed by RHDV2 (50.0%) and CZECH (50.0%). In rabbits with previous exposure to RHDV2 at capture, case fatality rates were highest in rabbits inoculated with K5 (12.9%) followed by CZECH (8.7%), with no case fatalities following RHDV2 inoculation. Case fatality rates did not differ significantly between inoculums in either serostatus group at capture. Based on multivariable modelling, time to death post RHDV inoculation increased in rabbits with recent RHDV2 exposure compared with seronegative rabbits and with age. The results suggest that RHDV2 may cause higher mortalities than other variants in seronegative rabbit populations but that K5 may be more effective in reducing rabbit populations in an RHDV2-dominant landscape.

Steady as he goes: at-sea movement of adult male Australian sea lions in a dynamic marine environment.

The southern coastline of Australia forms part of the worlds' only northern boundary current system. The Bonney Upwelling occurs every austral summer along the south-eastern South Australian coastline, a region that hosts over 80% of the worlds population of an endangered endemic otariid, the Australian sea lion. We present the first data on the movement characteristics and foraging behaviour of adult male Australian sea lions across their South Australian range. Synthesizing telemetric, oceanographic and isotopic datasets collected from seven individuals enabled us to characterise individual foraging behaviour over an approximate two year time period. Data suggested seasonal variability in stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes that could not be otherwise explained by changes in animal movement patterns. Similarly, animals did not change their foraging patterns despite fine-scale spatial and temporal variability of the upwelling event. Individual males tended to return to the same colony at which they were tagged and utilized the same at-sea regions for foraging irrespective of oceanographic conditions or time of year. Our study contrasts current general assumptions that male otariid life history strategies should result in greater dispersal, with adult male Australian sea lions displaying central place foraging behaviour similar to males of other otariid species in the region.