Development of a Multivariable Model to Predict the Need for Bone Marrow Sampling in Persons With Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance : A Cohort Study Nested in a Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) are asymptomatic precursor conditions to multiple myeloma and related disorders. Smoldering multiple myeloma is distinguished from MGUS by 10% or greater bone marrow plasma cells (BMPC) on sampling, has a higher risk for progression, and requires specialist management. OBJECTIVE: To develop a multivariable prediction model that predicts the probability that a person with presumed MGUS has 10% or greater BMPC (SMM or worse by bone marrow criteria) to inform the decision to obtain a bone marrow sample and compare its performance to the Mayo Clinic risk stratification model. DESIGN: iStopMM (Iceland Screens, Treats or Prevents Multiple Myeloma), a prospective population-based screening study of MGUS. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03327597). SETTING: Icelandic population of adults aged 40 years or older. PATIENTS: 1043 persons with IgG, IgA, light-chain, and biclonal MGUS detected by screening and an interpretable bone marrow sample. MEASUREMENTS: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance isotype; monoclonal protein concentration; free light-chain ratio; and total IgG, IgM, and IgA concentrations were used as predictors. Bone marrow plasma cells were categorized as 0% to 4%, 5% to 9%, 10% to 14%, or 15% or greater. RESULTS: The c-statistic for SMM or worse was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.82 to 0.88), and calibration was excellent (intercept, -0.07; slope, 0.95). At a threshold of 10% predicted risk for SMM or worse, sensitivity was 86%, specificity was 67%, positive predictive value was 32%, and negative predictive value was 96%. Compared with the Mayo Clinic model, the net benefit for the decision to refer for sampling was between 0.13 and 0.30 higher over a range of plausible low-risk thresholds. LIMITATION: The prediction model will require external validation. CONCLUSION: This accurate prediction model for SMM or worse was developed in a population-based cohort of persons with presumed MGUS and may be used to defer bone marrow sampling and referral to hematology. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: International Myeloma Foundation and the European Research Council.

Optimization and validation of a UPLC-MS/MS assay for simultaneous quantification of 2,8-dihydroxyadenine, adenine, allopurinol, oxypurinol and febuxostat in human plasma.

Adenine phosphoribosyltransferase (APRT) deficiency is a rare , hereditary disorder characterized by renal excretion of 2,8-dihydroxyadenine (DHA), leading to kidney stone formation and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Treatment with a xanthine oxidoreductase inhibitor, allopurinol or febuxostat, reduces urinary DHA excretion and slows the progression of CKD. The method currently used for therapeutic monitoring of APRT deficiency lacks specificity and thus, a more reliable measurement technique is needed. In this study, an ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method for simultaneous quantification of DHA, adenine, allopurinol, oxypurinol and febuxostat in human plasma was optimized and validated. Plasma samples were prepared with protein precipitation using acetonitrile followed by evaporation. The chemometric approach design of experiments was implemented to optimize gradient steepness, amount of organic solvent, flow rate, column temperature, cone voltage, desolvation temperature and desolvation flow rate. Experimental screening was conducted using fractional factorial design with addition of complementary experiments at the axial points for optimization of peak area, peak resolution and peak width. The assay was validated according to the US Food and Drug Administration guidelines for bioanalytical method validation over the concentration range of 50 to 5000 ng/mL for DHA, allopurinol and febuxostat, 100 to 5000 ng/mL for adenine and 50 to 12,000 ng/mL for oxypurinol, with r2 ≥ 0.99. The analytical assay achieved acceptable performance of accuracy (-10.8 to 8.3 %) and precision (CV < 15 %). DHA, adenine, allopurinol, oxypurinol and febuxostat were stable in plasma samples after five freeze-thaw cycles at -80 °C and after storage at -80 °C for 12 months. The assay was evaluated for quantification of the five analytes in clinical plasma samples from six APRT deficiency patients and proved to be both efficient and accurate. The proposed assay will be valuable for guiding pharmacotherapy and thereby contribute to improved and more personalized care for patients with APRT deficiency.

Incidence and outcomes of kidney replacement therapy for end-stage kidney disease due to primary glomerular disease in Europe: findings from the ERA Registry.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Primary glomerular disease (PGD) is a major cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) leading to kidney replacement therapy (KRT). We aimed to describe incidence (trends) in individuals starting KRT for ESKD due to PGD and to examine their survival and causes of death. METHODS: We used data from the European Renal Association (ERA) Registry on 69 854 patients who started KRT for ESKD due to PGD between 2000 and 2019. ERA primary renal disease codes were used to define six PGD subgroups. We examined age and sex standardized incidence, trend of the incidence, and survival. RESULTS: The standardized incidence of KRT for ESKD due to PGD was 16.6 per million population (pmp), ranging from 8.6 pmp in Serbia to 20.0 pmp in France. IgA nephropathy (IgAN) and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) had the highest incidence of 4.6 pmp and 2.6 pmp, respectively. Histologically non-examined PGDs represented over 50% of cases in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Romania and were also common in Greece, Estonia, Belgium, and Sweden. The incidence declined from 18.6 pmp in 2000 to 14.5 pmp in 2013, after which it stabilized. All PGD subgroups had five-year survival probabilities above 50%, with crescentic glomerulonephritis having the highest risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.6-1.9]) compared with IgAN. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of death (33.9%). CONCLUSION: The incidence of KRT for ESKD due to PGD showed large differences between countries and was highest and increasing for IgAN and FSGS. Lack of kidney biopsy facilities in some countries may have affected accurate assignment of the cause of ESKD. The recognition of the incidence and outcomes of KRT among different PGD subgroups may contribute to a more individualized patient care approach.

The epidemiology and outcomes of acute kidney injury following orthopaedic procedures: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious complication following major surgery. This study examined the incidence and risk factors of AKI following orthopaedic surgeries in an Icelandic cohort, as well as the association between AKI and patient- and surgery-related factors. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study comprised all patients 18 years and older who underwent orthopaedic surgeries at Landspitali - The National University Hospital in the years 2006-2018 with available serum creatinine (SCr) measurements adjacent to the surgery to stage AKI. AKI was defined according to SCr portion of the KDIGO criteria. Logistic regression was used to identify patient- and surgical factors related to progression of AKI and Poisson-regression was used to explore changes in incidence. RESULTS: A total of 222 cases of AKI following 3208 surgeries (6.9%) were identified in the study period with a rise in the incidence by about 17% per year. Higher age (odds ratio (OR), 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01-1.04 per year) and underlying reduction in kidney function (OR 1.93 (1.30-2.81), 3.24 (2.08-4.96) and 4.08 (2.35-6.96) for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30-59, 15-29 and <15 mL/min/1.73 m2 compared with eGFR >60 mL/min/1.73 m2 ) were associated with higher risk of AKI, but female sex was associated with decreased odds (OR = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.54-0.98). After correcting for age, sex, preoperative kidney function, emergency surgery and underlying comorbidities and frailty, there was an increased risk of long-term mortality in patients with AKI (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.08-1.85), and patients who developed AKI also had accelerated progression of chronic kidney disease compared with patients who did not develop AKI. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of AKI following orthopaedic surgeries is increasing and is associated with adverse outcomes. It is important that elderly individuals and patients who have reduced kidney function receive adequate monitoring and surveillance in the perioperative period.

Trends of perceived disruption in healthcare services during the pandemic: findings from the COVID-19 National Resilience Cohort in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused major disruptions in healthcare services worldwide. Yet, little is known about the association between perceived disruption in healthcare services and socio-demographic factors, pre-existing health conditions as well as concurrent physical and psychological symptoms. METHODS: Leveraging data from the Icelandic COVID-19 National Resilience Cohort, we performed a repeated measure analysis among 15 754 participants who responded to the question on perceived disruption in healthcare services from December 2020 to July 2021, to explore its association with socio-demographic factors, health indicators and conditions. Furthermore, we performed a longitudinal analysis among 7848 participants with two repeated measures to explore the association between timing and duration of perceived disruption in healthcare services and changes in depression, anxiety, sleep quality and somatic symptoms. RESULTS: The prevalence of perceived disruption in healthcare services slightly decreased over time (P < 0.01). Perceived disruption in healthcare services was more prevalent among individuals with pre-existing health conditions, i.e. history of psychiatric disorders (prevalence ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval 1.48-1.72) and chronic somatic conditions [1.40 (1.30-1.52)]. However, no increase in the prevalence of perceived disruption in healthcare services was observed among individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 [0.99 (0.84-1.18)]. Moreover, we found that emerging perceived disruption in healthcare services was associated with an increase in symptoms of mental illness during the pandemic (ßs 0.06-0.68). CONCLUSIONS: A disruption in healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic was reported by vulnerable groups, while the Icelandic healthcare system managed to maintain accessible services to individuals with COVID-19.

COVID-19 illness severity and 2-year prevalence of physical symptoms: an observational study in Iceland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark.

Background: Although the persistence of physical symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection is a major public health concern, evidence from large observational studies beyond one year post diagnosis remain scarce. We aimed to assess the prevalence of physical symptoms in relation to acute illness severity up to more than 2-years after diagnosis of COVID-19. Methods: This multinational study included 64,880 adult participants from Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and Norway with self-reported data on COVID-19 and physical symptoms from April 2020 to August 2022. We compared the prevalence of 15 physical symptoms, measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-15), among individuals with or without a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, by acute illness severity, and by time since diagnosis. We additionally assessed the change in symptoms in a subset of Swedish adults with repeated measures, before and after COVID-19 diagnosis. Findings: During up to 27 months of follow-up, 34.5% participants (22,382/64,880) were diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals who were diagnosed with COVID-19, compared to those not diagnosed, had an overall 37% higher prevalence of severe physical symptom burden (PHQ-15 score ≥15, adjusted prevalence ratio [PR] 1.37 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.52]). The prevalence was associated with acute COVID-19 severity: individuals bedridden for seven days or longer presented with the highest prevalence (PR 2.25 [1.85-2.74]), while individuals never bedridden presented with similar prevalence as individuals not diagnosed with COVID-19 (PR 0.92 [0.68-1.24]). The prevalence was statistically significantly elevated among individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 for eight of the fifteen measured symptoms: shortness of breath, chest pain, dizziness, heart racing, headaches, low energy/fatigue, trouble sleeping, and back pain. The analysis of repeated measurements rendered similar results as the main analysis. Interpretation: These data suggest an elevated prevalence of some, but not all, physical symptoms during up to more than 2 years after diagnosis of COVID-19, particularly among individuals suffering a severe acute illness, highlighting the importance of continued monitoring and alleviation of these targeted core symptoms. Funding: This work was mainly supported by grants from NordForsk (COVIDMENT, grant number 105668 and 138929) and Horizon 2020 (CoMorMent, 847776). See Acknowledgements for further details on funding.

Were cancer patients worse off than the general population during the COVID-19 pandemic? A population-based study from Norway, Denmark and Iceland during the pre-vaccination era.

Background: In a population-based setting, we investigated the risks of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and developing severe COVID-19 outcomes among cancer patients compared with the general population. Methods: In nationwide cohorts, we identified all individuals in Norway, Denmark and Iceland who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 or had a severe COVID-19 outcome (hospitalisation, intensive care, and death) from March until December 2020, using data from national health registries. We estimated standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing cancer patients with the general population. Findings: During the first wave of the pandemic, cancer patients in Norway and Denmark had higher risks of testing SARS-CoV-2 positive compared to the general population. Throughout 2020, recently treated cancer patients were more likely to test SARS-CoV-2 positive. In Iceland, cancer patients experienced no increased risk of testing positive. The risk of COVID-19-related hospitalisation was higher among cancer patients diagnosed within one year of hospitalisation (Norway: SIR = 2.43, 95% CI 1.89-3.09; Denmark: 2.23, 1.96-2.54) and within five years (Norway: 1.58, 1.35-1.83; Denmark: 1.54, 1.42-1.66). Risks were higher in recently treated cancer patients and in those diagnosed with haematologic malignancies, colorectal or lung cancer. Risks of COVID-19-related intensive care and death were higher among cancer patients. Interpretation: Cancer patients were at increased risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the first pandemic wave when testing availability was limited, while relative risks of severe COVID-19 outcomes remained increased in cancer patients throughout 2020. Recent cancer treatment and haematologic malignancy were the strongest risk factors. Funding: Nordic Cancer Union.

Association of eGFR and mortality with use of a joint model: results of a nationwide study in Iceland.

OBJECTIVES: Prior studies on the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and mortality have failed to include methods to account for repeated eGFR determinations. The aim of this study was to estimate the association between eGFR and mortality in the general population in Iceland employing a joint model. METHODS: We obtained all serum creatinine and urine protein measurements from all clinical laboratories in Iceland in the years 2008-16. Clinical data were obtained from nationwide electronic medical records. eGFR was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation and categorized as follows: 0-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60-74, 75-89, 90-104 and >104 mL/min/1.73 m2. A multiple imputation method was used to account for missing urine protein data. A joint model was used to assess risk of all-cause mortality. RESULTS: We obtained 2 120 147 creatinine values for 218 437 individuals, of whom 84 364 (39%) had proteinuria measurements available. Median age was 46 (range 18-106) years and 47% were men. Proteinuria associated with increased risk of death for all eGFR categories in persons of all ages. In persons ≤65 years, the lowest risk was observed for eGFR of 75-89 mL/min/1.73 m2 without proteinuria. For persons aged >65 years, the lowest risk was observed for eGFR of 60-74 mL/min/1.73 m2 without proteinuria. eGFR of 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m2 without proteinuria did not associate with increased mortality risk in this age group. eGFR >104 mL/min/1.73 m2 associated with increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These results lend further support to the use of age-adapted eGFR thresholds for defining chronic kidney disease. Very high eGFR needs to be studied in more detail with regard to mortality.

Trends in kidney transplantation rate across Europe: study from the ERA Registry.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to identify trends in total, deceased donor (DD) and living donor (LD) kidney transplantation (KT) rates in European countries. METHODS: The European Renal Association (ERA) Registry and the Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation (GODT) databases were used to obtain the number of KTs in individual European countries between 2010 and 2018. General population counts were obtained from Eurostat or the national bureaus of statistics. The KT rate per million population (p.m.p.) and the average annual percentage change (APC) were calculated. RESULTS: The total KT rate in the 40 participating countries increased with 1.9% annually  [95%  confidence  interval  (CI) 1.5, 2.2] from 29.6 p.m.p. in 2010 to 34.7 p.m.p. in 2018, reflecting an increase of 3.4 p.m.p. in the DD-KT rate (from 21.6 p.m.p. to 25.0 p.m.p.; APC 1.9%; 95% CI 1.3, 2.4) and of 1.5 p.m.p. in the LD-KT rate (from 8.1 p.m.p. to 9.6 p.m.p.; APC 1.6%; 95% CI 1.0, 2.3). The trends in KT rate varied widely across European countries. An East-West gradient was observed for DD-KT rate, with Western European countries performing more KTs. In addition, most countries performed fewer LD-KTs. In 2018, Spain had the highest DD-KT rate (64.6 p.m.p.) and Turkey the highest LD-KT rate (37.0 p.m.p.). CONCLUSIONS: The total KT rate increased due to a rise in the KT rate from DDs and to a lesser extent from LDs, with large differences between individual European countries.

Increasing numbers and improved overall survival of patients on kidney replacement therapy over the last decade in Europe: an ERA Registry study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to describe the trends in the incidence, prevalence and survival of patients on kidney replacement therapy (KRT) for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) across Europe from 2008 to 2017. METHODS: Data from renal registries in 9 countries and 16 regions that provided individual patient data to the ERA Registry from 2008 to 2017 were included. These registries cover 34% of the general population in Europe. Crude and standardized incidence and prevalence per million population (pmp) were determined. Trends over time were studied using Joinpoint regression. Survival probabilities were estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: The standardized incidence of KRT was stable [annual percentage change (APC): -1.48 (-3.15; 0.21)] from 2008 (146.0 pmp) to 2011 (141.6 pmp), followed by a slight increase [APC: 1.01 (0.43; 1.60)] to 148.0 pmp in 2017, although trends in incidence varied across countries. This increase was primarily due to a rise in the incidence of KRT in men older than 65 years. Moreover, as a cause of kidney failure, diabetes mellitus is increasing. The standardized prevalence increased from 2008 (990.0 pmp) to 2017 (1166.8 pmp) [APC: 1.82 (1.75; 1.89)]. Patient survival on KRT improved in the time period 2011-13 compared with 2008-[adjusted HR: 0.94 (0.93; 0.95)]. CONCLUSION: This study showed an overall increase in the incidence and prevalence of KRT for ESKD as well as an increase in the KRT patient survival over the last decade in Europe.

Physicians' responsibility toward environmental degradation and climate change: A position paper of the European Federation of Internal Medicine.

The current data on climate change and environmental degradation are dramatic. The consequences of these changes are already having a significant impact on people's health. Physicians - as advocates of the patients, but also as citizens - have an ethical obligation to be involved in efforts to stop these changes. The European Federation of Internal Medicine (EFIM) strongly encourages the Internal Medicine societies and internists across Europe to play an active role in matters related to climate change and environmental degradation. At a national level, this includes advocating the adoption of measures that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and environmental degradation and contributing to policy decisions related to these issues. At a hospital level and in clinical practice, supporting actions by the health sector to reduce its ecological footprint is vital. At the level of EFIM and its associated internal societies, promoting educational activities and developing a toolkit to prepare internists to better care for citizens who suffer from the consequences of climate change. In addition to advocating and implementing effective actions to reduce the ecological footprint of the health industry, recommending the introduction of these themes in scientific programs of Internal Medicine meetings and congresses and the pre- and postgraduate medical training. At a personal level, internists must be active agents in advocating sustainable practices for the environment, increasing the awareness of the community about the health risks of climate change and environmental degradation, and being role models in the adoption of environmentally friendly behaviour.

Development of a prognostic model of COVID-19 severity: a population-based cohort study in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies from asymptomatic state to severe respiratory failure and the clinical course is difficult to predict. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in unvaccinated adults at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: All SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in Iceland were prospectively enrolled into a telehealth service at diagnosis. A multivariable proportional-odds logistic regression model was derived from information obtained during the enrollment interview of those diagnosed between February 27 and December 31, 2020 who met the inclusion criteria. Outcomes were defined on an ordinal scale: (1) no need for escalation of care during follow-up; (2) need for urgent care visit; (3) hospitalization; and (4) admission to intensive care unit (ICU) or death. Missing data were multiply imputed using chained equations and the model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Decision curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The prognostic model was derived from 4756 SARS-CoV-2-positive persons. In total, 375 (7.9%) only required urgent care visits, 188 (4.0%) were hospitalized and 50 (1.1%) were either admitted to ICU or died due to complications of COVID-19. The model included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, underlying conditions, and symptoms and clinical severity score at enrollment. On internal validation, the optimism-corrected Nagelkerke's R2 was 23.4% (95%CI, 22.7-24.2), the C-statistic was 0.793 (95%CI, 0.789-0.797) and the calibration slope was 0.97 (95%CI, 0.96-0.98). Outcome-specific indices were for urgent care visit or worse (calibration intercept -0.04 [95%CI, -0.06 to -0.02], Emax 0.014 [95%CI, 0.008-0.020]), hospitalization or worse (calibration intercept -0.06 [95%CI, -0.12 to -0.03], Emax 0.018 [95%CI, 0.010-0.027]), and ICU admission or death (calibration intercept -0.10 [95%CI, -0.15 to -0.04] and Emax 0.027 [95%CI, 0.013-0.041]). CONCLUSION: Our prognostic model can accurately predict the later need for urgent outpatient evaluation, hospitalization, and ICU admission and death among unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in the general population at the time of diagnosis, using information obtained by telephone interview.

HLA alleles, disease severity, and age associate with T-cell responses following infection with SARS-CoV-2.

Memory T-cell responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection have been extensively investigated but many studies have been small with a limited range of disease severity. Here we analyze SARS-CoV-2 reactive T-cell responses in 768 convalescent SARS-CoV-2-infected (cases) and 500 uninfected (controls) Icelanders. The T-cell responses are stable three to eight months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, irrespective of disease severity and even those with the mildest symptoms induce broad and persistent T-cell responses. Robust CD4+ T-cell responses are detected against all measured proteins (M, N, S and S1) while the N protein induces strongest CD8+ T-cell responses. CD4+ T-cell responses correlate with disease severity, humoral responses and age, whereas CD8+ T-cell responses correlate with age and functional antibodies. Further, CD8+ T-cell responses associate with several class I HLA alleles. Our results, provide new insight into HLA restriction of CD8+ T-cell immunity and other factors contributing to heterogeneity of T-cell responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Defining new reference intervals for serum free light chains in individuals with chronic kidney disease: Results of the iStopMM study.

Serum free light chain (FLC) concentration is greatly affected by kidney function. Using a large prospective population-based cohort, we aimed to establish a reference interval for FLCs in persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD). A total of 75422 participants of the iStopMM study were screened with serum FLC, serum protein electrophoresis and immunofixation. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated from serum creatinine. Central 99% reference intervals were determined, and 95% confidence intervals calculated. Included were 6461 (12%) participants with measured FLCs, eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, not receiving renal replacement therapy, and without evidence of monoclonality. Using current reference intervals, 60% and 21% had kappa and lambda FLC values outside the normal range. The FLC ratio was outside standard reference interval (0.26-1.65) in 9% of participants and outside current kidney reference interval (0.37-3.10) in 0.7%. New reference intervals for FLC and FLC ratio were established. New reference intervals for the FLC ratio were 0.46-2.62, 0.48-3.38, and 0.54-3.30 for eGFR 45-59, 30-44, and < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 groups, respectively. The crude prevalence of LC-MGUS in CKD patients was 0.5%. We conclude that current reference intervals for FLC and FLC ratio are inaccurate in CKD patients and propose new eGFR based reference intervals to be implemented.

Complement-Binding Donor-Specific Anti-HLA Antibodies: Biomarker for Immunologic Risk Stratification in Pediatric Kidney Transplantation Recipients.

Antibody-mediated rejection is a common cause of early kidney allograft loss but the specifics of antibody measurement, therapies and endpoints have not been universally defined. In this retrospective study, we assessed the performance of risk stratification using systematic donor-specific antibody (DSA) monitoring. Included in the study were children who underwent kidney transplantation between January 1, 2010 and March 1, 2018 at Stanford, with at least 12-months follow-up. A total of 233 patients were included with a mean follow-up time of 45 (range, 9-108) months. Median age at transplant was 12.3 years, 46.8% were female, and 76% had a deceased donor transplant. Fifty-two (22%) formed C1q-binding de novo donor-specific antibodies (C1q-dnDSA). After a standardized augmented immunosuppressive protocol was implemented, C1q-dnDSA disappeared in 31 (58.5%). Graft failure occurred in 16 patients at a median of 54 (range, 5-83) months, of whom 14 formed dnDSA. The 14 patients who lost their graft due to rejection, all had persistent C1q-dnDSA. C1q-binding status improved the individual risk assessment, with persistent; C1q binding yielding the strongest independent association of graft failure (hazard ratio, 45.5; 95% confidence interval, 11.7-177.4). C1q-dnDSA is more useful than standard dnDSA as a noninvasive biomarker for identifying patients at the highest risk of graft failure.

Patterns in Tacrolimus Variability and Association with De Novo Donor-Specific Antibody Formation in Pediatric Kidney Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: High tacrolimus intrapatient variability has been associated with inferior graft outcomes in patients with kidney transplants. We studied baseline patterns of tacrolimus intrapatient variability in pediatric patients with kidney transplants and examined these patterns in relation to C1q-binding de novo donor-specific antibodies. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: All tacrolimus levels in participants who underwent kidney-only transplantation at a single pediatric center from 2004 to 2018 (with at least 12-month follow-up, followed until 2019) were analyzed to determine baseline variability. Intrapatient variability was defined using the coefficient of variation (SD/mean ×100%) of all samples in a 6-month moving window. Routine de novo donor-specific antibody measurements were available for a subgroup of patients transplanted in 2010-2018. Cox proportional hazards models using tacrolimus intrapatient variability as a time-varying variable were used to examine the association between intrapatient variability and graft outcomes. The primary outcome of interest was C1q-binding de novo donor-specific antibody formation. RESULTS: Tacrolimus intrapatient variability developed a steady-state baseline of 30% at 10 months post-transplant in 426 patients with a combined 31,125 tacrolimus levels. Included in the outcomes study were 220 patients, of whom 51 developed C1q-binding de novo donor-specific antibodies. De novo donor-specific antibody formers had higher intrapatient variability, with a median of 38% (interquartile range, 28%-48%) compared with 28% (interquartile range, 20%-38%) for nondonor-specific antibody formers (P<0.001). Patients with high tacrolimus intrapatient variability (coefficient of variation >30%) had higher risk of de novo donor-specific antibody formation (hazard ratio, 5.35; 95% confidence interval, 2.45 to 11.68). Patients in the top quartile of tacrolimus intrapatient variability (coefficient of variation >41%) had the strongest association with C1q-binding de novo donor-specific antibody formation (hazard ratio, 11.81; 95% confidence interval, 4.76 to 29.27). CONCLUSIONS: High tacrolimus intrapatient variability was strongly associated with de novo donor-specific antibody formation.