Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for osteopenia in Chinese middle-aged and elderly men: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients at risk of osteopenia is an essential step in reducing the population at risk for fractures. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for osteopenia in Chinese middle-aged and elderly men that provides individualized risk estimates. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 1109 patients who attend regular physical examinations in the Second Medical Centre of Chinese PLA General Hospital were enrolled from 2015.03 to 2015.09. The baseline risk factors included dietary habits, exercise habits, medical histories and medication records. Osteopenia during follow-up were collected from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) and telephone interviews. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping to correct the optimism. The independent sample T-test analysis, Mann_Whitney U test, Chi-Square Test and multivariable Cox regression analysis were utilized to identify predictive factors for osteopenia in Chinese middle-aged and elderly men. A nomogram based on the seven variables was built for clinical use. Concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the efficiency of the nomogram. RESULTS: The risk factors included in the prediction model were bone mineral density at left femoral neck (LNBMD), hemoglobin (Hb), serum albumin (ALB), postprandial blood glucose (PBG), fatty liver disease (FLD), smoking and tea consumption. The C-index for the risk nomogram was 0.773 in the prediction model, which presented good refinement. The AUC of the risk nomogram at different time points ranged from 0.785 to 0.817, exhibiting good predictive ability and performance. In addition, the DCA showed that the nomogram had a good clinical application value. The nomogram calibration curve indicated that the prediction model was consistent. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides a novel nomogram and a web calculator that can effectively predict the 7-year incidence risk of osteopenia in Chinese middle-aged and elderly men. It is convenient for clinicians to prevent fragility fractures in the male population.

Age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index is associated with the risk of osteoporosis in older fall-prone men: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence linking the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (aCCI), an assessment tool for multimorbidity, to fragility fracture and fracture-related postoperative complications. However, the role of multimorbidity in osteoporosis has not yet been thoroughly evaluated. We aimed to investigate the association between aCCI and the risk of osteoporosis in older adults at moderate to high risk of falling. METHODS: A total of 947 men were included from January 2015 to August 2022 in a hospital in Beijing, China. The aCCI was calculated by counting age and each comorbidity according to their weighted scores, and the participants were stratified into two groups by aCCI: low (aCCI < 5), and high (aCCI ≥5). The Kaplan Meier method was used to assess the cumulative incidence of osteoporosis by different levels of aCCI. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate the association of aCCI with the risk of osteoporosis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was adapted to assess the performance for aCCI in osteoporosis screening. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean age of all patients was 75.7 years, the mean BMI was 24.8 kg/m2, and 531 (56.1%) patients had high aCCI while 416 (43.9%) were having low aCCI. During a median follow-up of 6.6 years, 296 participants developed osteoporosis. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that participants with high aCCI had significantly higher cumulative incidence of osteoporosis compared with those had low aCCI (log-rank test: P < 0.001). When aCCI was examined as a continuous variable, the multivariable-adjusted model showed that the osteoporosis risk increased by 12.1% (HR = 1.121, 95% CI 1.041-1.206, P = 0.002) as aCCI increased by one unit. When aCCI was changed to a categorical variable, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios associated with different levels of aCCI [low (reference group) and high] were 1.00 and 1.557 (95% CI 1.223-1.983) for osteoporosis (P <  0.001), respectively. The aCCI (cutoff ≥5) revealed an area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.566 (95%CI 0.527-0.605, P = 0.001) in identifying osteoporosis in older fall-prone men, with sensitivity of 64.9% and specificity of 47.9%. CONCLUSIONS: The current study indicated an association of higher aCCI with an increased risk of osteoporosis among older fall-prone men, supporting the possibility of aCCI as a marker of long-term skeletal-related adverse clinical outcomes.

Effect of colchicine on inflammatory markers in patients with coronary artery disease: A meta-analysis of clinical trials.

Whether colchicine reduces the levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) remains uncertain. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to evaluate the overall effect of colchicine treatment on hs-CRP and IL-6 levels in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). PubMed/Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for studies published before October 2021. Clinical trials in patients with CAD with reports of hs-CRP and IL-6 level changes before and after colchicine intervention were included. In total, 11 trials on hs-CRP and two trials on IL-6 were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with that in the control group, colchicine treatment was significantly associated with decreased hs-CRP levels (weighted mean differences [WMDs], -0.81 mg/L; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.34 to -0.28 mg/L; P = 0.003) in patients with CAD. Besides, the levels of IL-6 were significantly reduced in colchicine users compared to that of placebo (WMD, -1.28 pg/mL; 95% CI, -2.35 to -0.21 pg/mL; P = 0.02). In a subgroup analysis, colchicine led to a significant reduction in hs-CRP levels in studies with duration of intervention >7 days (WMD, -0.65 mg/L; 95% CI, -1.08 to -0.21 mg/L; P = 0.004) and studies with baseline hs-CRP levels ≥3.0 mg/L (WMD, -0.99 mg/L; 95% CI, -1.92 to -0.06 mg/L; P = 0.04). Colchicine intervention was associated with a reduction in hs-CRP and IL-6 levels in patients with CAD. Future investigations are required to verify the effect of colchicine on inflammatory markers and clarify the potential mechanisms of the cross talk between colchicine, inflammation, and cardiovascular outcomes.