The impact of lowering the study design significance threshold to 0.005 on sample size in randomized cancer clinical trials.

The proposal of improving reproducibility by lowering the significance threshold to 0.005 has been discussed, but the impact on conducting clinical trials has yet to be examined from a study design perspective. The impact on sample size and study duration was investigated using design setups from 125 phase II studies published between 2015 and 2022. The impact was assessed using percent increase in sample size and additional years of accrual with the medians being 110.97% higher and 2.65 years longer respectively. The results indicated that this proposal causes additional financial burdens that reduce the efficiency of conducting clinical trials.

AKTIP loss is enriched in ERα-positive breast cancer for tumorigenesis and confers endocrine resistance.

Recurrent deletion of 16q12.2 is observed in luminal breast cancer, yet the causal genomic alterations in this region are largely unknown. In this study, we identify that loss of AKTIP, which is located on 16q12.2, drives tumorigenesis of estrogen receptor alpha (ERα)-positive, but not ERα-negative, breast cancer cells and is associated with poor prognosis of patients with ERα-positive breast cancer. Intriguingly, AKTIP-depleted tumors have increased ERα protein level and activity. Cullin-associated and neddylation-dissociated protein 1 (CAND1), which regulates the cullin-RING E3 ubiquitin ligases, protects ERα from cullin 2-dependent proteasomal degradation. Apart from ERα signaling, AKTIP loss triggers JAK2-STAT3 activation, which provides an alternative survival signal when ERα is inhibited. AKTIP-depleted MCF7 cells and ERα-positive patient-derived organoids are more resistant to ERα antagonists. Importantly, the resistance can be overcome by co-inhibition of JAK2/STAT3. Together, our results highlight the subtype-specific functional consequences of AKTIP loss and provide a mechanistic explanation for the enriched AKTIP copy-number loss in ERα-positive breast cancer.

A multicenter retrospective cohort study on predicting the risk for amiodarone pulmonary toxicity.

BACKGROUND: Amiodarone is one of the most commonly used anti-arrhythmic agents. Amiodarone pulmonary toxicity is a potentially fatal adverse effect associated with amiodarone use. Previous studies on the epidemiology and risk factors for amiodarone pulmonary toxicity showed diverse results. METHODS: A multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted to identify clinic-epidemiologic markers associated with amiodarone pulmonary toxicity for development of a prediction rule. Patients taking amiodarone who were managed in 3 centres in Hong Kong from 2005 to 2015 were included in this study. Penalized logistic regression was used to model the outcome as it is rare. RESULTS: A total of 34 cases with amiodarone pulmonary toxicity were identified among 1786 patients taking amiodarone for at least 90 days from 2005 to 2015. The incidence of amiodarone pulmonary toxicity was estimated to be 1.9%. The risk factors for amiodarone pulmonary toxicity included advanced age (OR 1.047, 95% CI 1.010-1.085, p = 0.013), ventricular arrhythmia (OR 2.703, 95% CI 1.053-6.935, p = 0.039), underlying lung disease (OR 2.511, 95% CI 1.146-5.501, p = 0.021) and cumulative dose of amiodarone (OR 4.762, 95% CI 1.310-17.309 p = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of amiodarone pulmonary toxicity in Chinese patients in Hong Kong is estimated to be 1.9% in this study. Age, underlying lung disease, ventricular arrhythmia and cumulative dose of amiodarone are associated with the development of amiodarone pulmonary toxicity. A prediction rule was developed to inform the risk of developing amiodarone pulmonary toxicity.

Prospective Study of Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma on Waitlist for Liver Transplant.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There are no prospective data on stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) as a bridge to liver transplantation for HCC. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of SBRT as bridging therapy, with comparison with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients were prospectively enrolled for SBRT under a standardized protocol from July 2015 and compared with a retrospective cohort of patients who underwent TACE or HIFU from 2010. The primary endpoint was tumor control rate at 1 year after bridging therapy. Secondary endpoints included cumulative incidence of dropout, toxicity, and posttransplant survival. During the study period, 150 patients were evaluated (SBRT, n = 40; TACE, n = 59; HIFU, n = 51). The tumor control rate at 1 year was significantly higher after SBRT compared with TACE and HIFU (92.3%, 43.5%, and 33.3%, respectively; P = 0.02). With competing risk analysis, the cumulative incidence of dropout at 1 and 3 years after listing was lower after SBRT (15.1% and 23.3%) compared with TACE (28.9% and 45.8%; P = 0.034) and HIFU (33.3% and 45.1%; P = 0.032). Time-to-progression at 1 and 3 years was also superior after SBRT (10.8%, 18.5% in SBRT, 45%, 54.9% in TACE, and 47.6%, 62.8% in HIFU; P < 0.001). The periprocedural toxicity was similar, without any difference in perioperative complications and patient and recurrence-free survival rates after transplant. Pathological complete response was more frequent after SBRT compared with TACE and HIFU (48.1% vs. 25% vs. 17.9%, respectively; P = 0.037). In multivariable analysis, tumor size <3 cm, listing alpha-fetoprotein <200 ng/mL, Child A, and SBRT significantly reduced the risk of dropout. CONCLUSIONS: SBRT was safe, with a significantly higher tumor control rate, reduced the risk of waitlist dropout, and should be used as an alternative to conventional bridging therapies.

The 12-month prevalence of psychotic experiences and their association with clinical outcomes in Hong Kong: an epidemiological and a 2-year follow up studies.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between the subtypes of psychotic experiences (PEs) and common mental health symptoms remains unclear. The current study aims to establish the 12-month prevalence of PEs in a representative sample of community-dwelling Chinese population in Hong Kong and explore the relationship of types of PEs and common mental health symptoms. METHOD: This is a population-based two-phase household survey of Chinese population in Hong Kong aged 16-75 (N = 5719) conducted between 2010 and 2013 and a 2-year follow-up study of PEs positive subjects (N = 152). PEs were measured with Psychosis Screening Questionnaire (PSQ) and subjects who endorsed any item on the PSQ without a clinical diagnosis of psychotic disorder were considered as PE-positive. Types of PEs were characterized using a number of PEs (single v. multiple) and latent class analysis. All PE-positive subjects were assessed with common mental health symptoms and suicidal ideations at baseline and 2-year follow-up. PE status was also assessed at 2-year follow-up. RESULTS: The 12-month prevalence of PEs in Hong Kong was 2.7% with 21.1% had multiple PEs. Three latent classes of PEs were identified: hallucination, paranoia and mixed. Multiple PEs and hallucination latent class of PEs were associated with higher levels of common mental health symptoms. PE persistent rate at 2-year follow-up was 15.1%. Multiple PEs was associated with poorer mental health at 2-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Results highlighted the transient and heterogeneous nature of PEs, and that multiple PEs and hallucination subtype of PEs may be specific indices of poorer common mental health.

Analysis of Survival Benefits of Living Versus Deceased Donor Liver Transplant in High Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Hepatorenal Syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous recommendations suggested living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) should not be considered for patients with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) > 25 and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients who were listed with MELD > 25 from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed with intention-to-treat (ITT) basis retrospectively. Patients who had a potential live donor were analyzed as ITT-LDLT, whereas those who had none belonged to ITT-deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) group. ITT-overall survival (OS) was analyzed from the time of listing. Three hundred twenty-five patients were listed (ITT-LDLT n = 212, ITT-DDLT n = 113). The risk of delist/death was lower in the ITT-LDLT group (43.4% vs. 19.8%, P < 0.001), whereas the transplant rate was higher in the ITT-LDLT group (78.3% vs. 52.2%, P < 0.001). The 5-year ITT-OS was superior in the ITT-LDLT group (72.6% vs. 49.5%, P < 0.001) for patients with MELD > 25 and patients with both MELD > 25 and HRS (56% vs. 33.8%, P < 0.001). Waitlist mortality was the highest early after listing, and the distinct alteration of slope at survival curve showed that the benefits of ITT-LDLT occurred within the first month after listing. Perioperative outcomes and 5-year patient survival were comparable for patients with MELD > 25 (88% vs. 85.4%, P = 0.279) and patients with both MELD > 25 and HRS (77% vs. 76.4%, P = 0.701) after LDLT and DDLT, respectively. The LDLT group has a higher rate of renal recovery by 1 month (77.4% vs. 59.1%, P = 0.003) and 3 months (86.1% vs, 74.5%, P = 0.029), whereas the long-term estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was similar between the 2 groups. ITT-LDLT reduced the hazard of mortality (hazard ratio = 0.387-0.552) across all MELD strata. CONCLUSIONS: The ITT-LDLT reduced waitlist mortality and allowed an earlier access to transplant. LDLT in patients with high MELD/HRS was feasible, and they had similar perioperative outcomes and better renal recovery, whereas the long-term survival and eGFR were comparable with DDLT. LDLT should be considered for patients with high MELD/HRS, and the application of LDLT should not be restricted with a MELD cutoff.

Hepatitis B Virus Seropositivity Is a Poor Prognostic Factor of Pediatric Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Population-Based Study in Hong Kong and Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a rare hepatic malignancy in children. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a key predisposing factor in endemic regions but its impact on outcome has not been studied. We aim to evaluate the prognostic implication of HBV seropositivity and role of cancer surveillance in children with HCC from East Asian populations with national HBV vaccination. METHODS: Review of population-based databases for patients (< 18 years old) diagnosed with HCC from 1993 to 2017 in two Southeast Asian regions with universal HBV vaccination (instituted since 1988 and 1987 in Hong Kong and Singapore, respectively). RESULTS: Thirty-nine patients were identified (Hong Kong, 28; Singapore, 11). Thirty were male; median age at diagnosis was 10.8 years (range, 0.98-16.6). Abdominal pain was the commonest presentation while five patients were diagnosed through surveillance for underlying condition. Alpha-fetoprotein was raised in 36 patients (mean, 500,598 ng/ml). Nineteen had bilobar involvement, among the patients in whom pretreatment extent of disease (PRETEXT) staging could retrospectively be assigned, 3 had stage I, 13 had stage II, 4 had stage III, and 11 had stage IV disease. Seventeen had distant metastasis. HBsAg was positive in 19 of 38 patients. Two patients had fibrolamellar HCC. Upfront management involved tumor resection in 16 (liver transplantation, 2), systemic chemotherapy in 21, interventional procedures in 6 [transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), 5, radiofrequency ablation (RFA), 1], and radiotherapy in 4 (selective internal radiation, 3, external beam radiation, 1). Five-year event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were 15.4 ± 6.0 and 26.1 ± 7.2%, respectively. Patient's HBsAg positivity, metastatic disease and inability to undergo definitive resection represent poor prognostic factors in univariate and multivariable analyses. Patients diagnosed by surveillance had significantly better outcome. CONCLUSION: Pediatric HCC has poor outcome. HBV status remains relevant in the era of universal HBV vaccination. HBV carrier has inferior outcome and use of surveillance may mitigate disease course.

Radiomics analysis using stability selection supervised component analysis for right-censored survival data.

Radiomics is a newly emerging field that involves the extraction of massive quantitative features from biomedical images by using data-characterization algorithms. Distinctive imaging features identified from biomedical images can be used for prognosis and therapeutic response prediction, and they can provide a noninvasive approach for personalized therapy. So far, many of the published radiomics studies utilize existing out of the box algorithms to identify the prognostic markers from biomedical images that are not specific to radiomics data. To better utilize biomedical images, we propose a novel machine learning approach, stability selection supervised principal component analysis (SSSuperPCA) that identifies stable features from radiomics big data coupled with dimension reduction for right-censored survival outcomes. The proposed approach allows us to identify a set of stable features that are highly associated with the survival outcomes in a simple yet meaningful manner, while controlling the per-family error rate. We evaluate the performance of SSSuperPCA using simulations and real data sets for non-small cell lung cancer and head and neck cancer, and compare it with other machine learning algorithms. The results demonstrate that our method has a competitive edge over other existing methods in identifying the prognostic markers from biomedical imaging data for the prediction of right-censored survival outcomes.

National action to combat AMR: a One-Health approach to assess policy priorities in action plans.

Little is known about the overall trend and prioritisations of past and current antimicrobial resistance (AMR) policies. Here we introduce a quantitative method to analyse AMR policies. The AMR-Policy Analysis Coding Toolkit (AMR-PACT) uses several categorical variables. Thirteen AMR action plans from five countries (China, Japan, Norway, the UK and the USA) were used to develop the tool and identify possible values for each variable. The scope and capability of AMR-PACT is demonstrated through the 2015 WHO's Global Action Plan and 2017 Hong Kong AMR Action Plan (HKAP). Majority of policies were aimed at either human or animal sector with less attention given to the environment, plant or food sector. Both plans shared the same two strategic focus areas, namely the conservation of antibiotics and the improved surveillance of resistance. There were no policies dedicated to improving access to antibiotics in the HKAP. These empirical results provide useful insights into the priorities and gaps of AMR policies. The method proposed here can help understand countries' priorities regarding AMR, support the creation of AMR policy database and foster innovative policymaking.

Myeloproliferative neoplasms treated with hydroxyurea, pegylated interferon alpha-2A or ruxolitinib: clinicohematologic responses, quality-of-life changes and safety in the real-world setting.

Introduction: Real-world data of responses, quality-of-life (QOL) changes and adverse events in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) on conventional therapy (hydroxyurea ± anagrelide), pegylated interferon alpha-2A (PEG-IFNα-2A) or ruxolitinib are limited. Methods: We prospectively studied MPN patients receiving conventional therapy, PEG-IFNα-2A or ruxolitinib. Next-generation sequencing of 69 myeloid-related genes was performed. Clinicohematologic responses, adverse events, and QOL (determined by the Myeloproliferative Neoplasm Symptom Assessment Form Total Symptom Score, MPN-SAF TSS) were evaluated. Results: Seventy men and fifty-five women with polycythemia vera (PV) (N = 23), essential thrombocythemia (ET) (N = 56) and myelofibrosis (MF) (N = 46) were studied for a median of 36 (range: 19-42) months. In PV, responses were comparable for different modalities. CREBBP mutations were associated with inferior responses. In ET, PEG-IFNα-2A resulted in superior clinicohematologic complete responses (CHCR) (P = 0.045). In MF, superior overall response rates (ORR) were associated with ruxolintib (P = 0.018) and JAK2V617F mutation (P = 0.04). For the whole cohort, ruxolitinib led to rapid and sustained reduction in spleen size within the first 6 months, and significant improvement of QOL as reflected by reduction in MPN-SAF TSS (P < 0.001). Adverse events of grades 1-2 were observed in 44%, 62% and 20% of patients receiving conventional therapy, PEG-IFNα-2A and ruxolitinib respectively; and of grade 3-4 in 7% and 9% of patients receiving PEG-IFNα-2A and ruxolitinib. Conclusions: Conventional therapy, PEG-IFNα-2A and ruxolitinib induced responses in all MPN subtypes. PEG-IFNα-2A led to superior CHCR in ET; whereas ruxolitinib resulted in superior ORR in MF, and significant reduction in spleen size and improvement in QOL.

Ten-year trajectory and outcomes of negative symptoms of patients with first-episode schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

This study explored the 10-year trajectories and outcomes of negative symptoms in patients with first-episode schizophrenia-spectrum disorder. Patients were from the historical control study comparing 10-year outcomes between standard care and early intervention services. A total of 298 patients were identified, 214 were successfully interviewed at 10-year follow-up for clinical and functional outcomes and 209 patients were included for final analyses. Information from clinical records were obtained systematically using standardized data entry forms. These information including negative symptoms, hospitalization and employment, monthly for year 1-3 and trimonthly for the year 4-10. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to explore the 10-year negative symptom clusters. Demographics and early clinical characteristics related to the cluster memberships and different components of negative symptom at 10-year follow-up were further explored. The cluster analysis identified three longitudinal clusters of negative symptoms and 15% of patients were in the relapsed group. There was no difference in cluster membership between the intervention groups. Male gender and duration of hospitalizations in year four were found to be significant determinants of relapse negative symptoms. Lower education level, higher year-one negative symptom score and more months of unemployment during the first 3 years predicted overall negative symptoms at 10-year follow-up. Male gender was found to be a predictor only for avolition and anhedonia and duration of untreated psychosis only predicted anhedonia. These results highlighted the heterogeneity of longitudinal outcomes and the importance of personalized interventions.

Effect of machine learning re-sampling techniques for imbalanced datasets in 18F-FDG PET-based radiomics model on prognostication performance in cohorts of head and neck cancer patients.

PURPOSE: Biomedical data frequently contain imbalance characteristics which make achieving good predictive performance with data-driven machine learning approaches a challenging task. In this study, we investigated the impact of re-sampling techniques for imbalanced datasets in PET radiomics-based prognostication model in head and neck (HNC) cancer patients. METHODS: Radiomics analysis was performed in two cohorts of patients, including 166 patients newly diagnosed with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in our centre and 182 HNC patients from open database. Conventional PET parameters and robust radiomics features were extracted for correlation analysis of the overall survival (OS) and disease progression-free survival (DFS). We investigated a cross-combination of 10 re-sampling methods (oversampling, undersampling, and hybrid sampling) with 4 machine learning classifiers for survival prediction. Diagnostic performance was assessed in hold-out test sets. Statistical differences were analysed using Monte Carlo cross-validations by post hoc Nemenyi analysis. RESULTS: Oversampling techniques like ADASYN and SMOTE could improve prediction performance in terms of G-mean and F-measures in minority class, without significant loss of F-measures in majority class. We identified optimal PET radiomics-based prediction model of OS (AUC of 0.82, G-mean of 0.77) for our NPC cohort. Similar findings that oversampling techniques improved the prediction performance were seen when this was tested on an external dataset indicating generalisability. CONCLUSION: Our study showed a significant positive impact on the prediction performance in imbalanced datasets by applying re-sampling techniques. We have created an open-source solution for automated calculations and comparisons of multiple re-sampling techniques and machine learning classifiers for easy replication in future studies.

Clofarabine, cytarabine, and mitoxantrone in refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukemia: High response rates and effective bridge to allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Clofarabine is active in refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In this phase 2 study, we treated 18- to 65-year-old AML patients refractory to first-line 3 + 7 daunorubicin/cytarabine induction or relapsing after 3 + 7 induction and high-dose cytarabine consolidation, with clofarabine (30 mg/m2 /d, Days 1-5), cytarabine (750 mg/m2 /d, Days 1-5), and mitoxantrone (12 mg/m2 /d, Days 3-5) (CLAM). Patients achieving remission received up to two consolidation cycles of 50% CLAM, with eligible cases bridged to allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). The mutational profile of a 69-gene panel was evaluated. Twenty-six men and 26 women at a median age of 46 (22-65) years were treated. The overall response rate after the first cycle of CLAM was 90.4% (complete remission, CR: 69.2%; CR with incomplete hematologic recovery, CRi: 21.2%). Twenty-two CR/CRi patients underwent allo-HSCT. The 2-year overall survival (OS), relapse-free survival (RFS), and event-free survival (EFS) were 65.8%, 45.7%, and 40.2%, respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that superior OS was associated with CR after CLAM (P = .005) and allo-HSCT (P = .005), and superior RFS and EFS were associated with allo-HSCT (P < .001). Remarkably, CR after CLAM and allo-HSCT resulted in 2-year OS of 84.3% and 90%, respectively. Karyotypic aberrations and genetic mutations did not influence responses or survivals. Grade 3/4 neutropenia/thrombocytopenia and grade 3 febrile neutropenia occurred in all cases. Other nonhematologic toxicities were mild and uncommon. There was no treatment-related mortality and the performance of allo-HSCT was not compromised. Clofarabine, cytarabine, and mitoxantrone was highly effective and safe in refractory/relapsed AML. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02686593).

Ten-year employment patterns of patients with first-episode schizophrenia-spectrum disorders: comparison of early intervention and standard care services.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about long-term employment outcomes for patients with first-episode schizophrenia-spectrum (FES) disorders who received early intervention services. AIMS: We compared the 10-year employment trajectory of patients with FES who received early intervention services with those who received standard care. Factors differentiating the employment trajectories were explored. METHOD: Patients with FES (N = 145) who received early intervention services in Hong Kong between 1 July 2001 and 30 June 2002 were matched with those who entered standard care 1 year previously. We used hierarchical clustering analysis to explore the 10-year employment clusters for both groups. We used the mixed model test to compare cluster memberships and piecewise regression analysis to compare the employment trajectories of the two groups. RESULTS: There were significantly more patients who received the early intervention service in the good employment cluster (early intervention: N = 98 [67.6%]; standard care: N = 76 [52.4%]; P = 0.009). In the poor employment cluster, there was a significant difference in the longitudinal pattern between early intervention and standard care for years 1-5 (P < 0.0001). The number of relapses during the first 3 years, months of full-time employment during the first year and years of education were significant in differentiating the clusters of the early intervention group. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest there was an overall long-term benefit of early intervention services on employment. However, the benefit was not sustained for all patients. Personalisation of the duration of the early intervention service with a focus on relapse prevention and early vocational reintegration should be considered for service enhancement.

Machine Learning Interpretation of Extended Human Papillomavirus Genotyping by Onclarity in an Asian Cervical Cancer Screening Population.

This study aimed (i) to compare the performance of the BD Onclarity human papillomavirus (HPV) assay with the Cobas HPV test in identifying cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2/3 or above (CIN2/3+) in an Asian screening population and (ii) to explore improving the cervical cancer detection specificity of Onclarity by machine learning. We tested 605 stratified random archived samples of cervical liquid-based cytology samples with both assays. All samples had biopsy diagnosis or repeated negative cytology follow-up. Association rule mining (ARM) was employed to discover coinfection likely to give rise to CIN2/3+. Outcome classifiers interpreting the extended genotyping results of Onclarity were built with different underlying models. The sensitivities (Onclarity, 96.32%; Cobas, 95.71%) and specificities (Onclarity, 46.38%; Cobas, 45.25%) of the high-risk HPV (hrHPV) components of the two tests were not significantly different. When HPV16 and HPV18 were used to further interpret hrHPV-positive cases, Onclarity displayed significantly higher specificity (Onclarity, 87.10%; Cobas, 80.77%). Both hrHPV tests achieved the same sensitivities (Onclarity, 90.91%; Cobas, 90.91%) and similar specificities (Onclarity, 48.46%; Cobas, 51.98%) when used for triaging atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance. Positivity in both HPV16 and HPV33/58 of the Onclarity channels entails the highest probability of developing CIN2/3+. Incorporating other hrHPVs into the outcome classifiers improved the specificity of identifying CIN2/3 to up to 94.32%. The extended genotyping of Onclarity therefore can help to highlight patients having the highest risk of developing CIN2/3+, with the potential to reduce unnecessary colposcopy and negative psychosocial impact on women receiving the reports.

A simplified prediction model for early intrahepatic recurrence after hepatectomy for patients with unilobar hepatocellular carcinoma without macroscopic vascular invasion: An implication for adjuvant therapy and postoperative surveillance.

BACKGROUND: An accurate prediction model of early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy is important to ascertain the postoperative adjuvant treatment and surveillance. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study including 1125 patients with HCC underwent curative hepatic resection. They were randomly divided into training (n = 562) and validation (n = 563) sets. Early intrahepatic recurrence within 18 months from surgery is the primary outcome. In the training set, a prediction scoring model (Recurrent Liver Cancer Score RLCS) was developed, which was legitimised in the validation set. RESULTS: RLCS was developed based on four clinicopathologic risk factors (serum alpha fetoprotein, tumor size, multiple tumors or satellite nodules, and microvascular invasion). Low-risk and high-risk groups had statistically significant differences in early recurrence rates (18% vs. 43.8%). The 5-year recurrence-free survival rates of low risk and high risk groups were 52.9% and 27.8%, respectively. This model showed good calibration and discriminatory ability in the validation set (c-index of 0.647). CONCLUSION: RLCS is a user-friendly prediction scoring model which can accurately predict the occurrence of early intrahepatic recurrence of HCC. It establishes the basis of postoperative adjuvant treatment and surveillance in future studies.

Global comparison of cancer outcomes: standardization and correlation with healthcare expenditures.

BACKGROUND: Cancer outcomes vary widely among different countries. However, comparisons of cost-effectiveness and cost-efficiency of different systems are complex because the incidences of different cancers vary across countries and their chances of cure also differ substantially. We aim to propose a new standardized method for global comparison and to explore its relationship with economic indicators. METHODS: Cancer statistics from all 184 countries and 27 cancers listed in GLOBOCAN 2012 were analyzed. The complement of age-standardized mortality/incidence ratio [1 - (ASM/ASI)] was taken as the proxy relative survival (RS). Accounting for various country-specific cancer patterns, the cancer site-standardized proxy RS (proxy SS-RS) of individual countries were calculated by weighting the proportion of specific cancer sites as compared with the global pattern of incidence. Economic indicators of different countries listed by the World Bank were correlated with corresponding proxy SS-RS. RESULTS: Substantial variation in site-specific survival and new case distribution supported the use of proxy SS-RS, which ranged from 0.124 to 0.622 (median 0.359). The median total health expenditure per capita (HEpc) increased from US$44 for countries with proxy SS-RS < 0.25, to US$4643 for countries with proxy SS-RS ≥0.55. Results from logarithmic regression model showed exponential increase in total HEpc for better outcome. The expenditure varied widely among different strata, with the widest difference observed among countries with SS-RS ≥0.55 (total HEpc US$1412-$9361). CONCLUSIONS: Similar to age-standardization, cancer site-standardization adjusted for variation in pattern of cancer incidence provides the best available and feasible strategies for comparing cancer survivals across countries globally. Furthermore, cancer outcome correlated significantly with economic indicators and the amount of HEpc escalated exponentially. Our findings call for more in-depth studies applying cancer-site standardization to provide essential data for sharing of experience and urgent actions by policy makers to develop comprehensive and financially sustainable cancer plan for greater equity.

Available evidence of antibiotic resistance from extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in paediatric patients in 20 countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To make a systematic review of risk factors, outcomes and prevalence of extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-associated infection in children and young adults in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. METHODS: Up to June 2018 we searched online databases for published studies of infection with extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in individuals aged 0-21 years. We included case-control, cohort, cross-sectional and observational studies reporting patients positive and negative for these organisms. For the meta-analysis we used random-effects modelling of risk factors and outcomes for infection, and meta-regression for analysis of subgroups. We mapped the prevalence of these infections in 20 countries and areas using available surveillance data. FINDINGS: Of 6665 articles scanned, we included 40 studies from 11 countries and areas in the meta-analysis. The pooled studies included 2411 samples testing positive and 2874 negative. A higher risk of infection with extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-producing bacteria was associated with previous hospital care, notably intensive care unit stays (pooled odds ratio, OR: 6.5; 95% confidence interval, CI: 3.04 to 13.73); antibiotic exposure (OR: 4.8; 95% CI: 2.25 to 10.27); and certain co-existing conditions. Empirical antibiotic therapy was protective against infection (OR: 0.29; 95% CI: 0.11 to 0.79). Infected patients had longer hospital stays (26 days; 95% CI: 12.81 to 38.89) and higher risk of death (OR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.82 to 5.80). The population prevalence of infection was high in these regions and surveillance data for children were scarce. CONCLUSION: Antibiotic stewardship policies to prevent infection and encourage appropriate treatment are needed in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.

Next-generation sequencing with a 54-gene panel identified unique mutational profile and prognostic markers in Chinese patients with myelofibrosis.

Current prognostication in myelofibrosis (MF) is based on clinicopathological features and mutations in a limited number of driver genes. The impact of other genetic mutations remains unclear. We evaluated for mutations in a myeloid panel of 54 genes using next-generation sequencing. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and leukaemia-free survival (LFS), based on mutations of these genes and relevant clinical and haematological features. One hundred and one patients (primary MF, N = 70; secondary MF, N = 31) with a median follow-up of 49 (1-256) months were studied. For the entire cohort, inferior OS was associated with male gender (P = 0.04), age > 65 years (P = 0.04), haemoglobin < 10 g/dL (P = 0.001), CUX1 mutation (P = 0.003) and TP53 mutation (P = 0.049); and inferior LFS was associated with male gender (P = 0.03), haemoglobin < 10 g/dL (P = 0.04) and SRSF2 mutations (P = 0.008). In primary MF, inferior OS was associated with male gender (P = 0.03), haemoglobin < 10 g/dL (P = 0.002), platelet count < 100 × 109/L (P = 0.02), TET2 mutation (P = 0.01) and CUX1 mutation (P = 0.01); and inferior LFS was associated with haemoglobin < 10 g/dL (P = 0.02), platelet count < 100 × 109/L (P = 0.02), TET2 mutations (P = 0.01) and CUX1 mutations (P = 0.04). These results showed that clinical and haematological features and genetic mutations should be considered in MF prognostication.

Toxicity Related to Radiotherapy Dose and Targeting Strategy: A Pooled Analysis of Cooperative Group Trials of Combined Modality Therapy for Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) was the standard treatment for locally advanced NSCLC (LA-NSCLC). This study was performed to examine thoracic radiotherapy (TRT) parameters and their impact on adverse events (AEs). METHODS: We collected individual patient data from 3600 patients with LA-NSCLC who participated in 16 cooperative group trials of concurrent CRT. The TRT parameters examined included field design strategy (elective nodal irradiation [ENI] versus involved-field [IF] TRT [IF-TRT]) and TRT dose (60 Gy versus ≥60 Gy). The primary end point of this analysis was the occurrence of AEs. ORs for AEs were calculated with univariable and multivariable logistic models. RESULTS: TRT doses ranged from 60 to 74 Gy. ENI was not associated with more grade 3 or higher AEs than IF-TRT was (multivariable OR = 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.543-1.102, p = 0.1545). Doses higher than 60 Gy (high-dose TRT) were associated with significantly more grade 3 or higher AEs (multivariable OR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.501-2.203, p < 0.0001). In contrast, ENI was associated with significantly more grade 4 or higher AEs (multivariable OR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.035-1.709, p = 0.0258). Doses higher than 60 Gy were also associated with more grade 4 or higher AEs (multivariate OR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.191-1.700, p = 0.0001). Grade 5 AEs plus treatment-related deaths were more frequent with higher-dose TRT (p = 0.0012) but not ENI (p = 0.099). CONCLUSIONS: For patients with LA-NSCLC treated with concurrent CRT, IF-TRT was not associated with the overall risk of grade 3 or higher AEs but was associated with significantly fewer grade 4 or higher AEs than ENI TRT. This is likely the result of irradiation of a lesser amount of adjacent critical normal tissue. Higher TRT doses were associated significantly with grade 3 or higher and grade 4 or higher AEs. On the basis of these findings and our prior report on survival, CRT using IF-TRT and 60 Gy (conventionally fractionated) were associated with more favorable patient survival and less toxicity than was the use of ENI or higher radiotherapy doses.