Public transport use and mortality among older adults in England: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Most evidence on transport use and mortality has focused on the commute to work. This study aims to fill a gap by assessing relationships between public transport use and mortality among older adults. METHODS: Data come from a cohort of 10,186 individuals aged 50 or older who participated in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), with survey data linked to mortality records over 16 years (2002-2018). We assessed a binary measure of public transport use and frequency of use from 'every day or nearly every day' to 'never'. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between public transport use and mortality. Analyses were adjusted for a range of covariates including socio-demographic factors, chronic disease, and self-reported problems with daily living activities. RESULTS: Overall, 3371 participants (33.1%) died within the study period. Mortality was lower among public transport users (21.3%) compared with non-users (64.2%). Adjusted analyses found that users had 34% lower mortality than non-users (HR 0.66 (95% CI 0.61;0.71)). Adjusted analyses showed similar association sizes across frequencies of public transport use, with those using public transport every day or nearly every day having 41% lower mortality than never users (HR 0.59 (0.49;0.71)). Associations were similar among those with and without a longstanding illness. CONCLUSION: The use of public transport among older adults is linked to lower levels of mortality. Reductions in provision of public transport services could be detrimental to both transportation and population health.

Exploring residential relocation- differences between newcomers and settled residents in health, travel behaviour and neighbourhood perceptions.

This study explores whether people who have recently moved to an area differ from longer-term residents in their health, travel behaviour, and perceptions of the environment. Using a large, representative sample from the UKHLS, Newcomers demonstrate significantly lower mental and physical health, reduced car commuting, and a higher likelihood of liking their neighbourhood. Area deprivation, urbanicity, household income, and age emerge as influential moderators with i.e. Newcomers in affluent areas experiencing lower physical health than Settled Residents, and rural Newcomers expressing less neighbourhood satisfaction. Our findings highlight that Newcomers' perceptions of their environment diverge and environmental influences vary among population segments, potentially impacting related health behaviours such as active travel. Furthermore, residential relocation introduces Newcomers with distinct characteristics into areas, affecting the context in which potential population health interventions aiming to influence health behaviours operate. This necessitates a deeper understanding of what influences reactions to the environment as well as ongoing adaptation of environmental interventions to respond to changing contexts within the same location over time.

Children's experiences of care on walking and cycling journeys between home and school in Healthy New Towns: Reframing active school travel.

The Healthy New Town programme in England set out to 'put health into place' by supporting the design and construction of healthy places to live, including by creating safe environments for active travel. To explore the impact of this approach, this study examined how children and their families experienced school journeys in two contrasting Healthy New Towns in England, one an affluent new town in the early stages of construction and the other more economically deprived and established. We undertook photo-elicitation and go-along interviews with 24 children aged 7-12 years and semi-structured interviews with 17 caregivers. We found that experiences of care were important for children's school travel. In the 'deprived' town, opportunities for children to care and to be cared for were enjoyed, facilitated by routes with limited traffic, pockets of 'nature', and possibilities to encounter meaningful others. For families living in a town under construction, the need to negotiate unfinished travel infrastructure, and a sense of being 'in limbo', was experienced as an absence of care by planners and developers. Interventions to promote children's active travel should consider the role of care-full planning in facilitating walking and cycling journeys.

Explaining differential socioeconomic effects in population health interventions: development and application of a new tool to classify intervention agentic demand.

BACKGROUND: The agentic demand of population health interventions (PHIs) might influence how interventions work. Highly agentic interventions (eg, information campaigns) rely on recipients noticing and responding to the intervention. Resources required for individuals to benefit from highly agentic interventions have a socioeconomical pattern, thus agentic demand might affect intervention effectiveness and equity. Systematic evidence exploring these associations is missing due to the absence of adequate tools to classify agentic demands. We aimed to develop such a tool and test its application. METHODS: Our iterative development process involved: (1) systematic identification of diet and physical activity PHIs; (2) coding of intervention actors and actions; (3) data synthesis; (4) expert qualitative feedback; and (5) reliability assessment. We searched nine databases for articles published between Jan 1, 2010, and Aug 17, 2020. For all included articles, we coded the actors (people required to act within an intervention) and their actions (what they were required to do for the intervention to have its intended effects). We combined these codes for similar intervention types to develop overarching schematic flow chart diagrams used to identify concepts, and we organised these into a draft tool. After expert feedback, and we assessed inter-rater reliability of the final version. We applied the final tool in a proof-of-concept review, extracting studies from three existing equity-focused systematic reviews on tool category, overall intervention effect, and differential socioeconomic effects and visualised findings. FINDINGS: We identified three concepts affecting agentic demands of intervention components: exposure, two levels (how recipients encounter the intervention); mechanism of action, five levels; and engagement, two levels (how recipients respond to the intervention). We then combined these concepts to form 20 categories that grouped together interventions with similar agentic demands. In the review, we applied the tool to 26 PHIs that included 163 components. Intervention components were concentrated in a small number of categories, and their categorisation was related to intervention equity but not to effectiveness. INTERPRETATION: We present a novel tool to classify the agentic demand of PHIs and demonstrate its feasibility within a systematic review. Linking intervention types to their effect on inequalities enables these factors to be considered when designing or selecting interventions. Users of the tool can avoid implementing intervention types that are likely to widen inequalities or implement them alongside counter-strategies to minimise any adverse equity effects. Applying this tool within future research, policy, and practice to design, select, evaluate, and synthesise evidence from PHIs has the potential to advance our understanding of how interventions work and their effect on socioeconomic inequalities. FUNDING: Public Health Policy Research Unit (PH-PRU), National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Policy Research Programme.

Neighbourhood Walkability and Its Influence on Physical Activity and Cardiometabolic Disease: A Cross-Sectional Study in a Caribbean Small Island Developing State.

Introduction Cities and neighborhoods may provide opportunities for population-level environmental interventions to reduce physical inactivity and cardiometabolic risk. In this study, we describe the association between neighborhood walkability, physical activity (PA), and cardiometabolic outcomes, by linking data from a nationally representative survey of adults (25 years and older) collected in 2012-2013 with spatial data on built environment features in Barbados. Methods We estimated a walkability index for 45 neighborhoods using objectively measured built environment features (residential density, street connectivity, and land use mix). We used the Recent Physical Activity Questionnaire to capture time spent in outdoor walking, active commuting, moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA), and total PA. Our primary cardiometabolic outcome was a predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk (CVD) score, estimated using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled cohort equation. Our secondary cardiometabolic outcomes were hypertension and diabetes. We explored the effect of neighborhood walkability on PA and cardiometabolic outcomes using several multivariable regression models (tobit and linear and logistic multi-level mixed effects), with the model choice depending on the structure of the outcome.  Results The average time spent walking weekly for any purpose among participants was 75 minutes/week, time spent on active commuting was 15 minutes/week, and MVPA was 221 minutes/week. We estimated that the average 10-year CVD risk in the study population was 11.7% (95%CI 10.9-12.5). Our confounder-adjusted analyses showed positive linear relationships between neighborhood walkability and each PA outcome (p<0.05 in all cases), and a negative relationship between walkability and predicted 10-year CVD risk (p<0.001). Conclusion In our setting, adults residing in higher walkability neighborhoods spent more time engaged in PA, had a lower predicted 10-year CVD risk, and were less likely to have diabetes. Urban planners may consider shorter-term interventions, such as those on a microscale, which may provide additional ways to increase activity in a mostly fixed macroscale environment.

Mode of transport, genetic susceptibility, and incidence of coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Car use has been associated with higher risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). However, whether the associations of transport modes with CHD vary by genetic susceptibility to CHD are unknown. This study aims to investigate the associations of genetic susceptibility and modes of transport with incidence of CHD. METHODS: We included 339,588 white British participants from UK Biobank with no history of CHD or stroke at baseline or within two years of follow-up (52.3% in work). Genetic susceptibility to CHD was quantified through weighted polygenic risk scores derived from 300 single-nucleotide polymorphisms related to CHD risk. Categories of transport mode included exclusive car use and alternatives to the car (e.g., walking, cycling and public transport), separately for non-commuting (e.g., getting about [n=339,588] excluding commuting for work), commuting (in the sub-set in work [n=177,370] who responded to the commuting question), and overall transport (transport mode for both commuting and non-commuting [n=177,370]). We used Cox regression with age as the underlying timescale to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of CHD (n=13,730; median 13.8-year follow-up) and tested the interaction between genetic susceptibility and travel modes with adjustment for confounders. RESULTS: Compared to those using alternatives to the car, hazards of CHD were higher for exclusive use of cars for overall transport (HR: 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-1.25), non-commuting (HR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04-1.12) and commuting (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.09-1.23), after adjusting for confounders plus genetic susceptibility. HRs of CHD were 1.45 (95% CI: 1.38-1.52) and 2.04 (95% CI: 1.95-2.12) for the second and third tertile of genetic susceptibility to CHD, respectively, compared to the first. There was, in general, no strong evidence of interactions between genetic susceptibility and categories of overall, non-commuting and commuting transport. Estimated 10-year absolute risk of CHD was lower for the alternatives to the car across strata of genetic susceptibility, compared with exclusive use of cars for overall, non-commuting and commuting transport. CONCLUSION: Exclusive use of cars was associated with a relatively higher risk of CHD across all strata of genetic susceptibility. Using alternatives to the car should be encouraged for prevention of CHD for the general population including individuals at high genetic risk.

Equity impacts of cycling investment in England: A natural experimental study using longitudinally linked individual-level Census data.

Background: Cycling is beneficial for health and the environment but the evidence on the overall and differential impacts of interventions to promote cycling is limited. Here we assess the equity impacts of funding awarded to support cycling in 18 urban areas between 2005 and 2011. Methods: We used longitudinally linked 2001 and 2011 census data from 25,747 individuals in the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales. Logistic regression was used to assess the impacts of funding on commute mode as the interaction between time and area (intervention/comparison) in individual-level difference-in-difference analyses, adjusting for a range of potential confounding factors. Differential impacts were examined by age, gender, education and area-level deprivation, and uptake and maintenance of cycling were examined separately. Results: Difference-in-difference analyses showed no intervention impact on cycle commuting prevalence in the whole sample (AOR = 1.08; 95% CI 0.92, 1.26) or among men (AOR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.76, 1.10) but found an intervention effect among women (AOR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.16, 2.10). The intervention promoted uptake of cycling commuting in women (AOR = 2.13; 95% CI 1.56, 2.91) but not men (AOR = 1.19; 95% CI 0.93, 1.51). Differences in intervention effects by age, education and area-level deprivation were less consistent and more modest in magnitude. Conclusions: Living in an intervention area was associated with greater uptake of cycle commuting among women but not men. Potential gender differences in the determinants of transport mode choice should be considered in the design and evaluation of future interventions to promote cycling.

The physical activity implications of retirement across occupational activity groups.

Retirement is an important later life transition which may represent a critical period for physical activity in older age. Past findings on the association between retirement and physical activity are inconclusive and there is some evidence that the physical activity implications of retirement may differ by occupational activity level. This study used data from waves 4-9 (June 2008-July 2019) of the English Longitudinal Study on Aging to evaluate whether there is an association between retirement and physical activity, and whether this varies across occupational activity groups. Retirement was associated with a significant increase in physical activity (n = 10,693; ß: 0.602 METhrs/wk. [95% CI: 0.490, 0.713], p < 0.001). There were significant interactions between retirement and past occupational activity level (n = 5109; X2 (3)=32.59, p < 0.001), such that people retiring from sedentary or standing occupations experienced a significant increase in physical activity with retirement but retirement from an occupation involving heavy manual labour was associated with a decrease in physical activity. This study quantified the importance of retirement for later life physical activity. With demographic aging, the population health importance of later life physical activity will likely become more important. These findings should inform the design of public health interventions to increase physical activity around the retirement transition.

A longitudinal area classification of migration in Great Britain: Testing the application of Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Modelling.

The migration of people affects the geographical distribution of the population and the demographic composition of areas over the short, medium and long terms. To recognise and respond to the corresponding needs and challenges, including consequences for service provision, social cohesion and population health, there is a continuing need to understand migration patterns of the past and present. Area classifications are a useful tool to simplify the inherently complex data on migration flows and characteristics. Yet, existing classifications often lack direct migration measures or focus solely on cross-sectional data. This study addresses these limitations by employing Group-Based Multi-Trajectory Modelling (GBMTM) to create a longitudinal, migration-specific classification of Great Britain's wards from 1981 to 2011, using six migration indicators. Using U.K. census data, we reveal six distinct migration clusters that highlight the rapid growth in studentifying neighbourhoods, the continuous influx of migrants into inner cities, and a noticeable North-South divide in terms of movers' tenure enforced by persisting income selectivity. Additionally, the geographical distribution of clusters shows a common pattern in urban areas irrespective of size or location. The longitudinal perspective of our GBMTM classification highlights trends and changes in migration patterns that are not well reflected in either the general purpose or the cross-sectional migration classification that we used as comparators. We conclude that the method presented and the classification generated offer a novel lens on migration and provide new opportunities to explore the effects of migration on a variety of outcomes and at various scales.

Shifting towards healthier transport: carrots or sticks? Systematic review and meta-analysis of population-level interventions.

BACKGROUND: Promoting active travel can be beneficial for both health and the environment. However, evidence about the most effective strategies is inconsistent. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of interventions with positive (ie, carrot), negative (ie, stick), or a combination of strategies on changing population-level travel behaviour. We also aimed to identify which intervention functions, or mechanisms of how interventions seek to alter behaviour (eg, by addressing safety or accessibility), affect transport outcomes. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched eight online databases for studies published before March 28, 2022: Web of Science, MEDLINE, Scopus, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, Global Health, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and Transport Research International Documentation. We did not restrict searches by language or publication date. We included controlled before-and-after studies of population-level interventions and travel behaviours (ie, driving, public transport, walking, and cycling) from adults in the general population. We categorised interventions according to their function. Depending on whether gains or losses due to intervention function could occur, we classified interventions as carrot (eg, new bike-share programmes), stick (eg, congestion charging), or combined carrot-and-stick interventions (eg, pedestrianising areas by use of reallocated parking space). We used harvest plots to summarise the findings and guide narrative synthesis. Where possible, we converted outcomes into standardised mean differences and did random-effects meta-analyses. FINDINGS: From 38 916 records screened, 102 reports describing 121 interventions met the inclusion criteria. 79 interventions were carrots, 22 were carrot-and-sticks, and 20 were sticks. Results for carrot interventions were less consistent than for stick or combined interventions. Findings from the meta-analysis (64 reports describing 67 interventions) agreed with those in the narrative synthesis; although effects were statistically non-significant, for driving outcomes, interventions with stick strategies (standardised mean difference [SMD] -0·17, 95% CI -0·36 to 0·02) and combined carrot-and-stick strategies (-0·13, -0·47 to 0·20) had point estimates of greater magnitude than those for interventions with carrot strategies (-0·10, -0·23 to 0·03). Likewise, for active travel outcomes, combined carrot-and-stick strategies had a higher point estimate (0·33, -0·01 to 0·68) compared with carrot interventions (0·08, -0·05 to 0·21). Functions thought to change behaviour using financial means were effective at decreasing driving behaviour, whereas those improving access, safety, and space were effective for increasing active travel outcomes. INTERPRETATION: This Article found that, although transport interventions with only positive strategies are more commonly evaluated, interventions that combine both positive and negative strategies might be more effective at encouraging alternatives to driving at the population level. Further research is needed for interventions involving a stick strategy, which remain less widely implemented or well studied than those with only carrot strategies. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Cambridge Trust.

Impacts of new cycle infrastructure on cycling levels in two French cities: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cities globally have started to make substantial investment in more sustainable forms of transportation. We aimed to evaluate whether the construction of new cycling infrastructure in Paris and Lyon, France, affected population cycling activity along new or improved routes. METHODS: Routinely collected cycle count data from January 2014 to March 2020 were acquired for the cities of Paris and Lyon. Improvements were identified at 15 locations with 6 months of pre- and post-intervention data. Comparison streets were chosen within Paris or Lyon for which pre-intervention trends in cycling were similar to those at intervention sites. Controlled interrupted time series analyses and autocorrelation were performed adjusting for seasonality. Random-effects meta-analysis combined results across streets within each city and overall. RESULTS: On average, cycling counts/day increased on both intervention and control streets in Paris and Lyon. In general, results of the ITS analysis indicated no significant change in the level or trend as a result of the improvements in either city. Meta-analysis suggested that intervention streets in Paris had a larger positive pooled effect size for level change (218 cycle counts, 95% CI -189, 626, I2 = 0%) compared to Lyon (34, 95% CI -65, 133, I2 = 14%); however, confidence intervals for both cities were wide and included no effect. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that improving or constructing new cycle lanes may be necessary but not sufficient to induce significant changes in cycling levels. There is a need to understand how context, intervention design and other complementary interventions can improve the effectiveness of new cycling infrastructure.

Trends and inequalities in distance to and use of nearest natural space in the context of the 20-min neighbourhood: A 4-wave national repeat cross-sectional study, 2013 to 2019.

The 20-min neighbourhood is a policy priority for governments worldwide; a key feature of this policy is providing access to natural space (NS) within 800 m of home. The study aims were to (1) examine the association between distance to nearest NS and frequent use over time and (2) examine whether frequent use and changes in use were patterned by income and housing tenure over time. Bi-annual Scottish Household Survey data were obtained for 2013 to 2019 (n:42128 aged 16+). Adults were asked the walking distance to their nearest NS, the frequency of visits to this space and their housing tenure, as well as age, sex and income. We examined the association between distance from home of nearest NS, housing tenure, and the likelihood of frequent NS use (visited once a week or more). Two-way interaction terms were further applied to explore variation in the association between tenure and frequent NS use over time. We found that 87% of respondents lived within 10 min walk of a NS, meeting the policy specification for a 20-min neighbourhood. Greater proximity to NS was associated with increased use; individuals living a 6-10 min walk and over 10 min walk were respectively 53% and 78% less likely to report frequent NS use than those living within a 5 min walk. Housing tenure was an important predictor of frequent NS use; private renters and homeowners were more likely to report frequent NS use than social renters. Our findings provide evidence that proximity to NS is a strong predictor of frequent use. Our study provides important evidence that time-based access measures alone do not consider deep-rooted socioeconomic variation in use of NS. Policy makers should ensure a nuanced lens is applied to operationalising and monitoring the 20-min neighbourhood to safeguard against exacerbating existing inequalities.

Children's experiences of the journey between home and school: A qualitative synthesis using meta-ethnography.

This paper uses meta-ethnography to synthesise qualitative and ethnographic studies of children's (aged 5-13) experiences of socio-material environments on their school journey. Most of the 21 papers (18 studies) identified from the systematic search were from high-income countries and used self-report qualitative methods. Our synthesis shows children can feel vulnerable, but also negotiate journeys and manage risks, enjoy shared and solitary mobility, and explore their material environments. School journeys offer children a place to learn and develop agency within their socio-material environments. Attending to these wider benefits of school journeys, alongside supporting children to develop active modes attuned to the risks associated with these journeys, could improve the reach and impact of active school travel initiatives.

The socio-ecological determinants of change in school travel mode over the transition from childhood to adolescence and the association with physical activity intensity.

School active travel contributes to young people's physical activity levels, yet the prevalence is low, and declines with age. Based on determinants from the social-ecological model we investigated changes in school travel behaviour over the transition from childhood to adolescence in participants from the baseline and four-year follow-up of the SPEEDY cohort. Descriptive analysis examined how travel behaviours changed and were related to physical activity. Multinomial logistic regression investigated determinants. Some 38% of participants changed travel mode; 66% from active to passive. Passively traveling participants at follow-up showed a decrease in physical activity. Several social-ecological domains were associated with change. Findings suggest multicomponent interventions are required to support active travel in youth.

Sharing believable stories: A qualitative study exploring the relevance of case studies for influencing the creation of healthy environments.

Case study examples can inform policy recommendations and action to create healthy environments. This qualitative study, using semi-structured interviews with nine cross-sectoral stakeholders in England, explored the role of context in case study examples. We found that case studies can not only be a 'practical example' but also used as a 'believable story' with the power to influence decision-making. Case studies may be deemed believable if similar and locally relevant, but judgements can be inherently political and politicised. Metrics used to measure case study outcomes can differ in believability. Storytellers who understand different audiences can be used to build support.

Cross-sectional and prospective associations between active living environments and accelerometer-assessed physical activity in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

The environments in which young and middle-aged adults live may influence their physical activity (PA) behaviours. These associations are less clear among older adults. We estimated cross-sectional and prospective associations of population density, junction density, and land use mix and perceived active living environments with accelerometer-assessed PA in a cohort of older adults. Adults living in more dense and mixed neighbourhoods had less optimal activity profiles at baseline and less optimal changes in activity. Better perceptions were associated with more overall PA at baseline. Interventions for older adults may wish to target individuals living in more dense and mixed neighbourhoods.

Making sense of the evidence in population health intervention research: building a dry stone wall.

To effectively tackle population health challenges, we must address the fundamental determinants of behaviour and health. Among other things, this will entail devoting more attention to the evaluation of upstream intervention strategies. However, merely increasing the supply of such studies is not enough. The pivotal link between research and policy or practice should be the cumulation of insight from multiple studies. If conventional evidence synthesis can be thought of as analogous to building a wall, then we can increase the supply of bricks (the number of studies), their similarity (statistical commensurability) or the strength of the mortar (the statistical methods for holding them together). However, many contemporary public health challenges seem akin to herding sheep in mountainous terrain, where ordinary walls are of limited use and a more flexible way of combining dissimilar stones (pieces of evidence) may be required. This would entail shifting towards generalising the functions of interventions, rather than their effects; towards inference to the best explanation, rather than relying on binary hypothesis-testing; and towards embracing divergent findings, to be resolved by testing theories across a cumulated body of work. In this way we might channel a spirit of pragmatic pluralism into making sense of complex sets of evidence, robust enough to support more plausible causal inference to guide action, while accepting and adapting to the reality of the public health landscape rather than wishing it were otherwise. The traditional art of dry stone walling can serve as a metaphor for the more 'holistic sense-making' we propose.

The social and physical workplace environment and commute mode: A natural experimental study.

Despite strong evidence for health benefits from active travel, levels remain low in many countries. Changes to the physical and social workplace environment might encourage active travel but evaluation has been limited. We explored associations between changes in the physical and social workplace environment and changes in commute mode over one year among 419 participants in the Commuting and Health in Cambridge study. In adjusted analyses, an increase in the presence of one physical characteristic (e.g. bicycle parking or shower facilities) was associated with a 3.3% (95% confidence interval 1.0-5.6) reduction in the proportion of commutes by private motor vehicle and a 4.4% (95% CI 1.2-7.7) increase in the proportion of trips including active modes among men. These associations were not seen in women. A change to a more favourable social environment for walking or cycling among workplace management was associated with an increased proportion of commutes including active modes in women (4.5%, 95% CI 1.4-7.5) but not men. However, in both genders a change to more a favourable social environment for cycling among colleagues was associated with a reduced proportion of commutes by exclusively active modes (-2.8%, 95% CI -5.0 to -0.6). This study provides longitudinal evidence for gender differences in the associations between workplace environment and commute mode. A more supportive physical environment was associated with more active commuting in men, while the social environment appeared to have more complex associations that were stronger among women.