Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil-mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study.

Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being.

Modelling environmental variation in Young's modulus for Pinus radiata and implications for determination of critical buckling height.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although density-specific stiffness, E/rho, (where E is Young's modulus and rho is wood density) is often assumed constant by the elastic similarity model, and in determination of critical buckling height (H(crit)), few studies have tested this assumption within species. Here this assumption is tested for Pinus radiata growing across an environmental gradient, and theory is combined with data to develop a model of Young's modulus. METHODS: Analyses use an extensive series of environmental plots covering the range of climatic and edaphic conditions over which P. radiata is grown in New Zealand. Reduced major axis regression was used to determine scaling exponents between log-log plots of H(crit) vs. groundline diameter (D), and E/rho vs. D. Path analysis was used to identify significant direct and indirect (through stem slenderness) edaphic and climatic influences on E. KEY RESULTS: Density-specific stiffness exhibited 3-fold variation. As E/rho scaled positively with D, the exponent of 0.95 between H(crit) and D exceeded the assumed value of 0.67 under constant E/rho. The final path analysis model included mean air temperature in early autumn (T(aut)) and slenderness as significant (P < 0.05) positive direct influences on E. Tree leaf area index and T(aut) were indirectly associated with E through their significant (P < 0.05) positive direct relationship with stem slenderness. Young's modulus was most sensitive to T(aut), followed by stem slenderness then leaf area index, and the final model explained 76 % of the variance in E. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that within species E/rho variation may influence H(crit) and the scaling exponent between D and H(crit) so important in assumptions regarding allometric relationships. The model presented may provide a useful means of determining variation in E, E/rho and H(crit) across environmental gradients.

Rapid development of phosphorus limitation in temperate rainforest along the Franz Josef soil chronosequence.

The aim of this study was to examine how shifts in soil nutrient availability along a soil chronosequence affected temperate rainforest vegetation. Soil nutrient availability, woody plant diversity, composition and structure, and woody species leaf and litter nutrient concentrations were quantified along the sequence through ecosystem progression and retrogression. In this super-wet, high leaching environment, the chronosequence exhibited rapid soil development and decline within 120000 years. There were strong gradients of soil pH, N, P and C, and these had a profound effect on vegetation. N:P(leaf) increased along the chronosequence as vegetation shifted from being N- to P- limited. However, high N:P(leaf) ratios, which indicate P-limitation, were obtained on soils with both high and low soil P availability. This was because the high N-inputs from an N-fixing shrub caused vegetation to be P-limited in spite of high soil P availability. Woody species nutrient resorption increased with site age, as availability of N and P declined. Soil P declined 8-fold along the sequence and P resorption proficiency decreased from 0.07 to 0.01%, correspondingly. N resorption proficiency decreased from 1.54 to 0.26%, corresponding to shifts in mineralisable N. Woody plant species richness, vegetation cover and tree height increased through ecosystem progression and then declined. During retrogression, the forest became shorter, more open and less diverse, and there were compositional shifts towards stress-tolerant species. Conifers (of the Podocarpaceae) were the only group to increase in richness along the sequence. Conifers maintained a lower N:P(leaf) than other groups, suggesting superior acquisition of P on poor soils. In conclusion, there was evidence that P limitation and retrogressive forests developed on old soils, but N limitation on very young soils was not apparent because of inputs from an abundant N-fixing shrub.