A comprehensive analysis of APOE genotype effects on human brain structure in the UK Biobank.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk is increased in carriers of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele and decreased in ε2 allele carriers compared with the ε3ε3 genotype. The aim of this study was to determine whether: the APOE genotype affects brain grey (GM) or white matter (WM) structure; and if differences exist, the age when they become apparent and whether there are differential effects by sex. We used cross-sectional magnetic resonance imaging data from ~43,000 (28,494 after pre-processing) white British cognitively healthy participants (7,446 APOE ε4 carriers) aged 45-80 years from the UK Biobank cohort and investigated image-derived phenotypes (IDPs). We observed no statistically significant effects of APOE genotype on GM structure volumes or median T2* in subcortical structures, a measure related to iron content. The volume of white matter hyperintensities differed significantly between APOE genotype groups with higher volumes in APOE ε4ε4 (effect size 0.14 standard deviations [SD]) and ε3ε4 carriers (effect size 0.04 SD) but no differences in ε2 carriers compared with ε3ε3 carriers. WM integrity measures in the dorsal (mean diffusivity [MD]) and ventral cingulum (MD and intracellular volume fraction), posterior thalamic radiation (MD and isotropic volume fraction) and sagittal stratum (MD) indicated lower integrity in APOE ε4ε4 carriers (effect sizes around 0.2-0.3 SD) and ε3ε4 (effect sizes around 0.05 SD) carriers but no differences in ε2 carriers compared with the APOE ε3ε3 genotype. Effects did not differ between men and women. APOE ε4 homozygotes had lower WM integrity specifically at older ages with a steeper decline of WM integrity from the age of 60 that corresponds to around 5 years greater "brain age". APOE genotype affects various white matters measures, which might be indicative of preclinical AD processes. This hypothesis can be assessed in future when clinical outcomes become available.

Accuracy of heart failure ascertainment using routinely collected healthcare data: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ascertainment of heart failure (HF) hospitalizations in cardiovascular trials is costly and complex, involving processes that could be streamlined by using routinely collected healthcare data (RCD). The utility of coded RCD for HF outcome ascertainment in randomized trials requires assessment. We systematically reviewed studies assessing RCD-based HF outcome ascertainment against "gold standard" (GS) methods to study the feasibility of using such methods in clinical trials. METHODS: Studies assessing International Classification of Disease (ICD) coded RCD-based HF outcome ascertainment against GS methods and reporting at least one agreement statistic were identified by searching MEDLINE and Embase from inception to May 2021. Data on study characteristics, details of RCD and GS data sources and definitions, and test statistics were reviewed. Summary sensitivities and specificities for studies ascertaining acute and prevalent HF were estimated using a bivariate random effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was evaluated using I2 statistics and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curves. RESULTS: A total of 58 studies of 48,643 GS-adjudicated HF events were included in this review. Strategies used to improve case identification included the use of broader coding definitions, combining multiple data sources, and using machine learning algorithms to search free text data, but these methods were not always successful and at times reduced specificity in individual studies. Meta-analysis of 17 acute HF studies showed that RCD algorithms have high specificity (96.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 91.5-98.3), but lacked sensitivity (63.5%, 95% CI 51.3-74.1) with similar results for 21 prevalent HF studies. There was considerable heterogeneity between studies. CONCLUSIONS: RCD can correctly identify HF outcomes but may miss approximately one-third of events. Methods used to improve case identification should also focus on minimizing false positives.

Thromboxane biosynthesis and future events in diabetes: the ASCEND trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Thromboxane (TX) A2, released by activated platelets, plays an important role in atherothrombosis. Urinary 11-dehydro-TXB2 (U-TXM), a stable metabolite reflecting the whole-body TXA2 biosynthesis, is reduced by ∼70% by daily low-dose aspirin. The U-TXM represents a non-invasive biomarker of in vivo platelet activation and is enhanced in patients with diabetes. This study assessed whether U-TXM is associated with the risk of future serious vascular events or revascularizations (SVE-R), major bleeding, or cancer in patients with diabetes. METHODS: The U-TXM was measured pre-randomization to aspirin or placebo in 5948 people with type 1 or 2 diabetes and no cardiovascular disease, in the ASCEND trial. Associations between log U-TXM and SVE-R (n = 618), major bleed (n = 206), and cancer (n = 700) during 6.6 years of follow-up were investigated by Cox regression; comparisons of these associations with the effects of randomization to aspirin were made. RESULTS: Higher U-TXM was associated with older age, female sex, current smoking, type 2 diabetes, higher body size, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio of ≥3 mg/mmol, and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate. After adjustment for these, U-TXM was marginally statistically significantly associated with SVE-R and major bleed but not cancer [hazard ratios per 1 SD higher log U-TXM (95% confidence interval): 1.09 (1.00-1.18), 1.16 (1.01-1.34), and 1.06 (0.98-1.14)]. The hazard ratio was similar to that implied by the clinical effects of randomization to aspirin for SVE-R but not for major bleed. CONCLUSIONS: The U-TXM was log-linearly independently associated with SVE-R in diabetes. This is consistent with the involvement of platelet TXA2 in diabetic atherothrombosis.

ASCEND-Eye: Effects of Aspirin on Diabetic Retinopathy.

PURPOSE: Preclinical studies support a protective role for aspirin in early diabetic retinopathy (DR), but the findings from randomized trials are limited. We present randomized evidence for the efficacy and safety of aspirin on DR outcomes. DESIGN: A substudy of the A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes (ASCEND) double-masked, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of 100 mg aspirin daily for the primary prevention of serious cardiovascular events in people with diabetes. PARTICIPANTS: Fifteen thousand four hundred eighty United Kingdom adults at least 40 years of age with diabetes. METHODS: Linkage to electronic National Health Service Diabetic Eye Screening Programme records in England and Wales and confirmation of participant-reported eye events via medical record review were carried out. Log-rank methods were used for intention-to-treat analyses of time until the first primary efficacy and safety outcomes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary efficacy end point was the first record of referable disease after randomization, a composite of referable retinopathy or referable maculopathy based on the grading criteria defined by the United Kingdom National Screening Committee. The primary safety outcome was the first sight-threatening eye bleed, defined as clinically significant bleeding in the eye that resulted in unresolved visual loss or required an urgent intervention such as laser photocoagulation, vitreoretinal surgery, intraocular injection, or a combination thereof. RESULTS: Linkage data were obtained for 7360 participants (48% of those randomized in ASCEND). During the mean follow-up of 6.5 years, 539 participants (14.6%) experienced a referable disease event in the aspirin group, compared with 522 participants (14.2%) in the placebo group (rate ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.16; P = 0.64). No statistically significant between-group difference was found in the proportions of sight-threatening eye bleed events (57 participants [0.7%] and 64 participants [0.8%], respectively; rate ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.62-1.27). DISCUSSION: These data exclude any clinically meaningful benefits of aspirin for DR, but give reassurance regarding the ophthalmologic safety of aspirin. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

ASCEND-Eye: Effects of Omega-3 Fatty Acids on Diabetic Retinopathy.

PURPOSE: Preclinical studies support a protective role for omega-3 fatty acids (FAs) on diabetic retinopathy (DR), but these observations have not been confirmed in randomized trials. We present randomized evidence for the effects of omega-3 FAs on DR outcomes. DESIGN: A substudy of the A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes (ASCEND) double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of 1 g omega-3 fatty acids (containing 460 mg eicosapentaenoic acid and 380 mg docosahexaenoic acid) daily for the primary prevention of serious cardiovascular events, in 15 480 UK adults at least 40 years of age, with diabetes. PARTICIPANTS: Fifteen thousand four hundred eighty adults at least 40 years of age from the United Kingdom with diabetes from the ASCEND cohort. METHODS: Linkage to electronic National Health Service Diabetic Eye Screening Programme records in England and Wales and confirmation of participant-reported eye events via medical record review. Log-rank and stratified log-rank methods were used for intention-to-treat analyses of time until the main outcomes of interest. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary efficacy endpoint was time to the first postrandomization recording of referable disease, a composite of referable retinopathy (R2 or R3a/s) or referable maculopathy (M1) based on the grading criteria defined by the United Kingdom National Screening Committee. Secondary and tertiary outcomes included the referable disease outcome stratified by the severity of DR at baseline, any progression in retinopathy grade, and incident diabetic maculopathy. RESULTS: Linkage data were obtained for 7360 participants (48% of those who were randomized in ASCEND). During their mean follow-up of 6.5 years, 548 participants (14.8%) had a referable disease event in the omega-3 FAs group, compared with 513 participants (13.9%) in the placebo group (rate ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.95-1.20; P = 0.29). There were no statistically significant between-group differences in the proportion of events for either of the secondary or tertiary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Representing the largest prospective test of its kind to date, these data exclude any clinically meaningful benefits of 1 g daily omega-3 FAs on DR. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

MTHFR and risk of stroke and heart disease in a low-folate population: a prospective study of 156 000 Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: The relevance of folic acid for stroke prevention in low-folate populations such as in China is uncertain. Genetic studies of the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T polymorphism, which increases plasma homocysteine (tHcy) levels, could clarify the causal relevance of elevated tHcy levels for stroke, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and other diseases in populations without folic acid fortification. METHODS: In the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank, 156 253 participants were genotyped for MTHFR and 12 240 developed a stroke during the 12-year follow-up. Logistic regression was used to estimate region-specific odds ratios (ORs) for total stroke and stroke types, IHD and other diseases comparing TT genotype for MTHFR C677T (two thymine alleles at position 677 of MTHFR C677T polymorphism) vs CC (two cytosine alleles) after adjustment for age and sex, and these were combined using inverse-variance weighting. RESULTS: Overall, 21% of participants had TT genotypes, but this varied from 5% to 41% across the 10 study regions. Individuals with TT genotypes had 13% (adjusted OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09-1.17) higher risks of any stroke [with a 2-fold stronger association with intracerebral haemorrhage (1.24, 1.17-1.32) than for ischaemic stroke (1.11, 1.07-1.15)] than the reference CC genotype. In contrast, MTHFR C677T was unrelated to risk of IHD or any other non-vascular diseases, including cancer, diabetes and chronic obstructive lung disease. CONCLUSIONS: In Chinese adults, the MTHFR C677T polymorphism was associated with higher risks of stroke. The findings warrant corroboration by further trials of folic acid and implementation of mandatory folic acid fortification programmes for stroke prevention in low-folate populations.

ASCEND-Eye: Rationale, design and baseline characteristics for a sub-study of the ASCEND randomised trial, exploring the effects of aspirin and omega-3 fatty acids on diabetic retinopathy and age-related macular degeneration.

Background: Aspirin and omega-3 fatty acids (FAs) have potential disease-modifying roles in diabetic retinopathy (DR) and age-related macular degeneration (AMD), but randomized evidence of these effects is limited. We present the rationale and baseline characteristics of ASCEND-Eye, a sub-study of the double-blind, 2x2 factorial design, randomized placebo-controlled ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes) trial of 100 mg aspirin daily and, separately, 1g omega-3 FAs daily for the primary prevention of serious cardiovascular events, in 15,480 British adults, aged 40 years or older with diabetes. Methods: Eye events will be derived from three sources: 1) participant follow-up questionnaires from ASCEND, 2) electronic NHS Diabetic Eye Screening Programme (DESP) data and 3) responses to the National Eye Institute's Visual Function Questionnaire-25 (NEI-VFQ-25) sent to a subset of participants after the main trial ended. Analytic cohorts and outcomes relevant to these data sources are described. The primary outcome is referable diabetic eye disease, a secondary outcome is incident AMD events. Results: Participant-reported events were ascertained for the full cohort of randomized individuals who were followed up over 7.4 years in ASCEND (n = 15,480). Linked DESP data were available for 48% of those (n = 7360), and 57% completed the NEI-VFQ-25 (n = 8839). The baseline characteristics of these three cohorts are presented. Discussion: Establishing the risks and benefits of drugs commonly taken by people with diabetes, the elderly, or both, and finding new treatments for DR and AMD is important. ASCEND-Eye provides the opportunity to evaluate the effect of aspirin and, separately, omega-3 FAs for both conditions. Study registration: Eudract No. 2004-000991-15; Multicentre Research Ethics Committee Ref No. 03/8/087; ClinicalTrials.gov No. NCT00135226; ISRCTN No. ISRCTN60635500.

Reliability of major bleeding events in UK routine data versus clinical trial adjudicated follow-up data.

OBJECTIVE: To assess how reliable UK routine data are for ascertaining major bleeding events compared with adjudicated follow-up. METHODS: The ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes) primary prevention trial randomised 15 480 UK people with diabetes to aspirin versus matching placebo. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding (including intracranial haemorrhage, sight-threatening eye bleeding, serious gastrointestinal bleeding and other major bleeding (epistaxis, haemoptysis, haematuria, vaginal and other bleeding)) ascertained by direct-participant mail-based follow-up, with >90% of outcomes undergoing adjudication. Nearly all participants were linked to routinely collected hospitalisation and death data (ie, routine data). An algorithm categorised bleeding events from routine data as major/minor. Kappa statistics were used to assess agreement between data sources, and randomised comparisons were re-run using routine data. RESULTS: When adjudicated follow-up and routine data were compared, there was agreement for 318 major bleeding events, with routine data identifying 281 additional-potential events, and not identifying 241 participant-reported events (kappa 0.53, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.57). Repeating ASCEND's randomised comparisons using routine data only found estimated relative and absolute effects of allocation to aspirin versus placebo on major bleeding similar to adjudicated follow-up (adjudicated follow-up: aspirin 314 (4.1%) vs placebo 245 (3.2%); rate ratio (RR) 1.29, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.52; absolute excess +6.3/5000 person-years (mean SE±2.1); vs routine data: 327 (4.2%) vs 272 (3.5%); RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.41; absolute excess +5.0/5000 (±2.2)). CONCLUSIONS: Analyses of the ASCEND randomised trial found that major bleeding events ascertained via UK routine data sources provided relative and absolute treatment effects similar to adjudicated follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN60635500; NCT00135226.

Effect of low-dose aspirin on urinary 11-dehydro-thromboxane B2 in the ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events iN Diabetes) randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Aspirin is widely used for cardioprotection with its antiplatelet effects due to the blocking of thromboxane A2 production. However, it has been suggested that platelet abnormalities in those with diabetes prevent adequate suppression with once daily aspirin. METHODS: In the ASCEND randomized double-blind trial of aspirin 100 mg once daily versus placebo in participants with diabetes but no history of cardiovascular disease, suppression was assessed by measuring 11-dehydro-thromboxane B2 excretion in urine (U-TXM) in a randomly selected sample of 152 participants (76 aspirin arm, 74 placebo arm), plus 198 (93 aspirin arm, 105 placebo arm) adherent to study drugs and selected to maximize the numbers ingesting their last tablet 12-24 h before urine sampling. U-TXM was assayed using a competitive ELISA assay in samples mailed a mean of 2 years after randomization, with time since taking last aspirin/placebo tablet recorded at the time of sample provision. Effective suppression (U-TXM < 1500 pg/mg creatinine) and percentage reductions in U-TXM by aspirin allocation were compared. RESULTS: In the random sample, U-TXM was 71% (95% CI 64-76%) lower among aspirin vs placebo-allocated participants. Among adherent participants in the aspirin arm, U-TXM was 72% (95% CI 69-75%) lower than in the placebo arm and 77% achieved effective suppression overall. Suppression was similar among those who ingested their last tablet more than 12 h before urine sampling with levels in the aspirin arm 72% (95% CI 67-77%) lower than in the placebo arm and 70% achieving effective suppression. CONCLUSIONS: Daily aspirin significantly reduces U-TXM in participants with diabetes, including at 12-24 h after ingestion. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN ISRCTN60635500. Registered on 1 Sept 2005; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00135226. Registered on 24 Aug 2005.

Genetically Predicted Differences in Systolic Blood Pressure and Risk of Cardiovascular and Noncardiovascular Diseases: A Mendelian Randomization Study in Chinese Adults.

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomization studies of systolic blood pressure (SBP) can assess the shape and strength of the associations of genetically predicted differences in SBP with major disease outcomes and are less constrained by biases in observational analyses. This study aimed to compare the associations of usual and genetically predicted SBP with major cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes, overall and by levels of SBP, age, and sex. METHODS: The China Kadoorie Biobank involved a 12-year follow-up of a prospective study of 489 495 adults aged 40 to 79 years with no prior CVD and 86 060 with genetic data. Outcomes included major vascular events (59 490/23 151 in observational/genetic analyses), and its components (ischemic stroke [n=39 513/12 043], intracerebral hemorrhage [7336/5243], and major coronary events [7871/4187]). Genetically predicted SBP used 460 variants obtained from European ancestry genome-wide studies. Cox regression estimated adjusted hazard ratios for incident CVD outcomes down to usual SBP levels of 120 mm Hg. RESULTS: Both observational and genetic analyses demonstrated log-linear positive associations of SBP with major vascular event and other major CVD types in the range of 120 to 170 mm Hg. Consistent with the observational analyses, the hazard ratios per 10 mm Hg higher genetically predicted SBP were 2-fold greater for intracerebral hemorrhage (1.71 [95% CI, 1.58-1.87]) than for ischemic stroke (1.37 [1.30-1.45]) or major coronary event (1.29 [1.18-1.42]). Genetic analyses also demonstrated 2-fold greater hazard ratios for major vascular event in younger (1.69 [95% CI, 1.54-1.86]) than in older people (1.28 [1.18-1.38]). CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide support for initiation of blood pressure-lowering treatment at younger ages and below the conventional cut-offs for hypertension to maximize CVD prevention, albeit the absolute risks of CVD are far greater in older people.

Weight loss in a cardiovascular trial population identifies people at future risk of dementia.

Introduction: Populations at increased risk of dementia need to be identified for well-powered trials of preventive interventions. Weight loss, which often occurs in pre-clinical dementia, could identify a population at sufficiently high dementia risk. Methods: In 12,975 survivors in the Heart Protection Study statin trial of people with, or at high risk of, cardiovascular disease, the association of weight change over 5 years during the trial with post-trial dementia recorded in electronic hospital admission and death records (n = 784) was assessed, after adjustment for age, sex, treatment allocation, and deprivation measures. Results: Among the 60% without substantial weight gain (≤2 kg weight gain), each 1 kg weight loss was associated with a risk ratio for dementia of 1.04 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.07). Weight loss ≥4 kg and cognitive function below the mean identified participants aged ≥67 years with a 13% 10-year dementia risk. Discussion: The combination of weight loss and high vascular risk identified individuals at high risk of dementia who could be recruited to dementia prevention trials.

Genetic associations of adult height with risk of cardioembolic and other subtypes of ischemic stroke: A mendelian randomization study in multiple ancestries.

BACKGROUND: Taller adult height is associated with lower risks of ischemic heart disease in mendelian randomization (MR) studies, but little is known about the causal relevance of height for different subtypes of ischemic stroke. The present study examined the causal relevance of height for different subtypes of ischemic stroke. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Height-associated genetic variants (up to 2,337) from previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were used to construct genetic instruments in different ancestral populations. Two-sample MR approaches were used to examine the associations of genetically determined height with ischemic stroke and its subtypes (cardioembolic stroke, large-artery stroke, and small-vessel stroke) in multiple ancestries (the MEGASTROKE consortium, which included genome-wide studies of stroke and stroke subtypes: 60,341 ischemic stroke cases) supported by additional cases in individuals of white British ancestry (UK Biobank [UKB]: 4,055 cases) and Chinese ancestry (China Kadoorie Biobank [CKB]: 10,297 cases). The associations of genetically determined height with established cardiovascular and other risk factors were examined in 336,750 participants from UKB and 58,277 participants from CKB. In MEGASTROKE, genetically determined height was associated with a 4% lower risk (odds ratio [OR] 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94, 0.99; p = 0.007) of ischemic stroke per 1 standard deviation (SD) taller height, but this masked a much stronger positive association of height with cardioembolic stroke (13% higher risk, OR 1.13 [95% CI 1.07, 1.19], p < 0.001) and stronger inverse associations with large-artery stroke (11% lower risk, OR 0.89 [0.84, 0.95], p < 0.001) and small-vessel stroke (13% lower risk, OR 0.87 [0.83, 0.92], p < 0.001). The findings in both UKB and CKB were directionally concordant with those observed in MEGASTROKE, but did not reach statistical significance: For presumed cardioembolic stroke, the ORs were 1.08 (95% CI 0.86, 1.35; p = 0.53) in UKB and 1.20 (0.77, 1.85; p = 0.43) in CKB; for other subtypes of ischemic stroke in UKB, the OR was 0.97 (95% CI 0.90, 1.05; p = 0.49); and for other nonlacunar stroke and lacunar stroke in CKB, the ORs were 0.89 (0.80, 1.00; p = 0.06) and 0.99 (0.88, 1.12; p = 0.85), respectively. In addition, genetically determined height was also positively associated with atrial fibrillation (available only in UKB), and with lean body mass and lung function, and inversely associated with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol in both British and Chinese ancestries. Limitations of this study include potential bias from assortative mating or pleiotropic effects of genetic variants and incomplete generalizability of genetic instruments to different populations. CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide support for a causal association of taller adult height with higher risk of cardioembolic stroke and lower risk of other ischemic stroke subtypes in diverse ancestries. Further research is needed to understand the shared biological and physical pathways underlying the associations between height and stroke risks, which could identify potential targets for treatments to prevent stroke.

Effects of aspirin on dementia and cognitive function in diabetic patients: the ASCEND trial.

AIMS: Aspirin is widely used in cardiovascular disease prevention but is also associated with an increased risk of bleeding. The net effect of aspirin on dementia and cognitive impairment is uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the ASCEND trial, 15 480 people from the UK with diabetes and no history of cardiovascular disease were randomized to aspirin 100 mg daily or matching placebo for a mean of 7.4 years. The 15 427 ASCEND participants with no recorded dementia prior to baseline were included in this cognitive study with a primary pre-specified outcome of 'broad dementia', comprising dementia, cognitive impairment, or confusion. This was ascertained through participant, carer, or general practitioner report or hospital admission diagnosis, by 31 March 2019 (∼2 years beyond the scheduled treatment period). The broad dementia outcome occurred in a similar percentage of participants in the aspirin group and placebo group: 548 participants (7.1%) vs. 598 (7.8%), rate ratio 0.91 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.81-1.02]. Thus, the CI excluded proportional hazards of >2% and proportional benefits of >19%. CONCLUSION: Aspirin does not have a large proportional effect on the risk of dementia. Trials or meta-analyses with larger total numbers of incident dementia cases to increase statistical power are needed to assess whether any modest proportional 10-15% benefits of 5-7 years of aspirin use on dementia exist. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN60635500; ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00135226.

Editor's Choice - Effect of Carotid Endarterectomy on 20 Year Incidence of Recorded Dementia: A Randomised Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Stroke and carotid atherosclerosis are associated with dementia. Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) reduces stroke risk, although its effect on later dementia is uncertain. Participants in the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial (ACST-1), randomly allocated to immediate vs. deferral of CEA (i.e., no intervention unless or until triggered by ipsilateral transient ischaemic attack or stroke), were followed, to study effects on dementia. METHODS: From 1993 to 2003, ACST-1 included 3 120 participants with asymptomatic tight carotid stenosis. All UK and Swedish patients (n = 1 601; 796 immediate vs. 805 deferral) were followed with trial records, national electronic health record linkage, and (UK only) by post and telephone. Cumulative incidence and competing risk analyses were used to measure the effects of risk factors and CEA on dementia risk. Intention to treat analyses yielded hazard ratios (HRs; immediate vs. deferral) of dementia. RESULTS: The median follow up was 19.4 years (interquartile range 16.9 - 21.7). Dementia was recorded in 107 immediate CEA patients and 115 allocated delayed surgery; 1 290 patients died (1 091 [538 vs. 536] before any dementia diagnosis). Dementia incidence rose with age and with female sex (men: 8.3% aged < 70 years at trial entry vs. 15.1% aged ≥ 70; women: 15.1% aged < 70 years at trial entry vs. 22.4% aged ≥ 70 years) and was higher in those with pre-existing cerebral infarction (silent or with prior symptoms; 20.2% vs. 13.6%). Dementia risk was similar in both randomised groups: 6.7% vs. 6.6% at 10 years and 14.3% vs. 15.5% at 20 years, respectively. The dementia HR was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75 - 1.28; p = .89), with no heterogeneity in the neutral effect of immediate CEA on dementia related to age, carotid stenosis, blood pressure, diabetes, country of residence, or medical treatments at trial entry (heterogeneity values p > .05). CONCLUSION: CEA was not associated with significant reductions in the long term hazards of dementia, but the CI did not exclude a proportional benefit or hazard of about 25%.

Adiposity and risks of vascular and non-vascular mortality among Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes: a 10-year prospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Among individuals with diabetes, high adiposity has been associated with lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality (the so-called 'obesity paradox' phenomenon) in Western populations, for reasons that are still not fully elucidated. Moreover, little is known about such phenomena in Chinese adults with diabetes among whom very few were obese. We aimed to assess the associations of adiposity with vascular and non-vascular mortality among individuals with diabetes, and compare these with associations among individuals without diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In 2004-2008, the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank recruited >512 000 adults from 10 areas in China. After ~10 years of follow-up, 3509 deaths (1431 from CVD) were recorded among 23 842 individuals with diabetes but without prior major diseases at baseline. Cox regression yielded adjusted HRs associating adiposity with mortality. RESULTS: Among people with diabetes, body mass index (BMI) (mean 25.0 kg/m2) was positively log linearly associated with CVD incidence (n=9943; HR=1.19 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.22) per 5 kg/m2), but showed U-shaped associations with CVD and overall mortality, with lowest risk at 22.5-24.9 kg/m2. At lower BMI, risk of death (n=671) within 28 days of CVD onset was particularly elevated, with an HR of 3.26 (95% CI 2.29 to 4.65) at <18.5 kg/m2 relative to 22.5-24.9 kg/m2, but no higher mortality risk at BMI ≥25.0 kg/m2. These associations were similar in self-reported and screen-detected diabetes, and persisted after extensive attempts to address reverse causality and confounding. Among individuals without diabetes (mean BMI 23.6 kg/m2; n=23 305 deaths), there were less extreme excess mortality risks at low BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Among relatively lean Chinese adults with diabetes, there were contrasting associations of adiposity with CVD incidence and with mortality. The high mortality risk at low and high BMI levels highlights, if causal, the importance of maintaining normal weight among people with diabetes.

Independent effects of adiposity measures on risk of atrial fibrillation in men and women: a study of 0.5 million individuals.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a higher prevalence in men than in women and is associated with measures of adiposity and lean mass (LM). However, it remains uncertain whether the risks of AF associated with these measures vary by sex. METHODS: Among 477 904 UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 without prior AF, 23 134 incident AF cases were identified (14 400 men, 8734 women; median follow-up 11.1 years). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the covariate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) describing the association of AF with weight, measures of adiposity [fat mass (FM), waist circumference (WC)] and LM, and their independent relevance, by sex. RESULTS: Weight and WC were independently associated with risk of AF [HR: 1.25 (1.23-1.27) per 10 kg, HR: 1.11 (1.09-1.14) per 10 cm, respectively], with comparable effects in both sexes. The association with weight was principally driven by LM, which, per 5 kg, conferred double the risk of AF compared with FM when mutually adjusted [HR: 1.20 (1.19-1.21), HR: 1.10 (1.09-1.11), respectively]; however, the effect of LM was weaker in men than in women (p-interaction = 4.3 x 10-9). Comparing the relative effects of LM, FM and WC identified different patterns within each sex; LM was the strongest predictor for both, whereas WC was stronger than FM in men but not in women. CONCLUSIONS: LM and FM (as constituents of weight) and WC are risk factors for AF. However, the independent relevance of general adiposity for AF was more limited in men than in women. The relevance of both WC and LM suggests a potentially important role for visceral adiposity and muscle mass in AF development.

Gender differences in modifiable risk factors for hip fracture: 10-year follow-up of a prospective study of 0.5 million Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the incidence rates and importance of major modifiable risk factors for hip and major osteoporotic fractures in low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the age- and sex-specific incidence of hip, major osteoporotic, and any fractures and their associated risk factors in Chinese adults. METHODS: This was a prospective study of 512,715 adults, aged 30-79 years, recruited from 10 diverse areas in China from 2004 to 2008 and followed up for 10 years. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were estimated, and Cox regression was used to yield adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and population attributable fractions for risk factors. RESULTS: The incidence rates of hip fracture in Chinese adults were 5.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.0-5.3) per 10,000 person-years; they were higher in women than in men and increased by two- to threefold per 10-year older age. Among men, five risk factors for hip fracture, including low education (HR = 1.23; 95% CI 1.04-1.45), regular smoker (1.22, 1.03-1.45), lower weight (1.59, 1.34-1.88), alcohol drinker (1.18, 1.02-1.36), and prior fracture (1.62, 1.33-1.98), accounted for 44.3% of hip fractures. Among women, lower weight (1.30, 1.15-1.46), low physical activity (1.22, 1.10-1.35), diabetes (1.62, 1.41-1.86), prior fracture (1.54, 1.33-1.77), and self-rated poor health (1.29, 1.13-1.47) accounted for 24.9% of hip fractures. Associations of risk factors with major osteoporotic or any fractures were weaker than those with hip fractures. CONCLUSIONS: The age- and sex-specific incidence rates of hip fracture in Chinese adults were comparable with those in Western populations. Five potentially modifiable factors accounted for half of the hip fractures in men and one quarter in women.

Comparison of the Accuracy and Completeness of Records of Serious Vascular Events in Routinely Collected Data vs Clinical Trial-Adjudicated Direct Follow-up Data in the UK: Secondary Analysis of the ASCEND Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Routinely collected data could substantially decrease the cost of conducting trials. Objective: To assess the accuracy and completeness of UK routine data for ascertaining serious vascular events (SVEs) compared with adjudicated follow-up data. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial. From June 24, 2005, to July 28, 2011, the ASCEND (A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes) primary prevention trial used mail-based methods to randomize people with diabetes without evidence of atherosclerotic vascular disease using a 2 × 2 factorial design to aspirin and/or ω-fatty acids vs matching placebo in the UK. Direct participant mail-based follow-up was the main source of outcome data, with more than 90% of the primary outcome events undergoing adjudication. Follow-up was completed on July 31, 2017. In parallel, more than 99% of participants were linked to routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data (ie, routine data), enabling post hoc randomized comparisons of different sources of outcome data (conducted from September 1, 2018, to October 1, 2021). Interventions: Random allocation to 100 mg of aspirin once daily vs matching placebo and separately to 1 g of ω-3 fatty acids once daily vs placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome consisted of SVEs (a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack [TIA], or vascular death, excluding hemorrhagic stroke). Results: A total of 15 480 participants were randomized (mean [SD] age, 63 [9] years; 9684 [62.6%] men) and followed up for a mean (SD) of 7.4 (1.8) years. For SVEs, agreement between adjudicated direct follow-up and routine data sources was strong (1401 vs 1127 events; κ = 0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.80]; sensitivity, 72.0% [95% CI, 69.7%-74.4%]; specificity, 99.2% [95% CI, 99.0%-99.3%]), and sensitivity improved for SVEs excluding transient ischemic attack (1129 vs 1026 events; sensitivity, 80.6% [95% CI, 78.3%-82.9%]). Rate ratios for the aspirin-randomized comparison for adjudicated direct follow-up vs follow-up solely through routine data alone were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.79-0.97) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.02) for the primary outcome and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.82-1.03) vs 0.91 (95% CI, 0.80-1.02) for SVEs excluding TIA. Results were similar for the ω-3 fatty acid comparison, and adjudication did not seem to markedly change rate ratios. Conclusions and Relevance: Post hoc analyses of the ASCEND trial suggest that routinely collected hospital admission and death registry data in the UK could be used as the sole method of follow-up for myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke resulting in hospitalization, vascular death, and arterial revascularization in primary prevention cardiovascular trials, without the need for verification by clinical adjudication.

A Biomarker-based Biological Age in UK Biobank: Composition and Prediction of Mortality and Hospital Admissions.

BACKGROUND: Chronological age is the strongest risk factor for most chronic diseases. Developing a biomarker-based age and understanding its most important contributing biomarkers may shed light on the effects of age on later-life health and inform opportunities for disease prevention. METHODS: A subpopulation of 141 254 individuals healthy at baseline were studied, from among 480 019 UK Biobank participants aged 40-70 recruited in 2006-2010, and followed up for 6-12 years via linked death and secondary care records. Principal components of 72 biomarkers measured at baseline were characterized and used to construct sex-specific composite biomarker ages using the Klemera Doubal method, which derived a weighted sum of biomarker principal components based on their linear associations with chronological age. Biomarker importance in the biomarker ages was assessed by the proportion of the variation in the biomarker ages that each explained. The proportions of the overall biomarker and chronological age effects on mortality and age-related hospital admissions explained by the biomarker ages were compared using likelihoods in Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Reduced lung function, kidney function, reaction time, insulin-like growth factor 1, hand grip strength, and higher blood pressure were key contributors to the derived biomarker age in both men and women. The biomarker ages accounted for >65% and >84% of the apparent effect of age on mortality and hospital admissions for the healthy and whole populations, respectively, and significantly improved prediction of mortality (p < .001) and hospital admissions (p < 1 × 10-10) over chronological age alone. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that a broader, multisystem approach to research and prevention of diseases of aging warrants consideration.

Independent risk factors for simvastatin-related myopathy and relevance to different types of muscle symptom.

AIMS: Statins are widely used to prevent cardiovascular events, but little is known about the impact of different risk factors for statin-related myopathy or their relevance to reports of other types of muscle symptom. METHODS AND RESULTS: An observational analysis was undertaken of 171 clinically adjudicated cases of myopathy (defined as unexplained muscle pain or weakness with creatine kinase >10× upper limit of normal) and, separately, of 15 208 cases of other muscle symptoms among 58 390 individuals with vascular disease treated with simvastatin for a mean of 3.4 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent predictors of myopathy. The rate of myopathy was low: 9 per 10 000 person-years of simvastatin therapy. Independent risk factors for myopathy included: simvastatin dose, ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, medically treated diabetes, concomitant use of niacin-laropiprant, verapamil, beta-blockers, diltiazem and diuretics. In combination, these risk factors predicted more than a 30-fold risk difference between the top and bottom thirds of a myopathy risk score (hazard ratio : 34.35, 95% CI: 12.73-92.69, P across thirds = 9·1 × 10-48). However, despite the strong association with myopathy, this score was not associated with the other reported muscle symptoms (P across thirds = 0.93). Likewise, although SLCO1B1 genotype was associated with myopathy, it was not associated with other muscle symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The absolute risk of simvastatin-related myopathy is low, but individuals at higher risk can be identified to help guide patient management. The lack of association of the myopathy risk score with other muscle symptoms reinforces randomized placebo-controlled evidence that statins do not cause the vast majority of reported muscle symptoms.