Adaptive designs in public health: Vaccine and cluster randomized trials go Bayesian.

Clinical trials in public health-particularly those conducted in low- and middle-income countries-often involve communicable and non-communicable diseases with high disease burden and unmet needs. Trials conducted in these regions often are faced with resource limitations, so improving the efficiencies of these trials is critical. Adaptive trial designs have the potential to save trial time and resources and reduce the number of patients receiving ineffective interventions. In this paper, we provide a detailed account of the implementation of vaccine and cluster randomized trials within the framework of Bayesian adaptive trials, with emphasis on computational efficiency and flexibility with regard to stopping rules and allocation ratios. We offer an educated approach to selecting prior distributions and a data-driven empirical Bayes method for plug-in estimates for nuisance parameters.

Matched vs Nonmatched Placebos in a Randomized Trial of COVID-19 Treatments.

Importance: Matched placebo interventions are complex and resource intensive. Recent evidence suggests matched placebos may not always be necessary. Previous studies have predominantly evaluated potential bias of nonmatched placebos (ie, differing on dose, frequency of administration, or formulation) in pain and mental health, but to date no systematic examination has been conducted in infectious disease. Objective: To test for differences between nonmatched and matched placebo arms with respect to clinical outcome measures across multiple therapeutics for COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: In a comparative effectiveness research study, a post hoc analysis was conducted of data on individual patients enrolled in a large, multiarm, platform randomized clinical trial in symptomatic adult outpatients with COVID-19 between January 15, 2021, to September 28, 2023, in which the outcomes of both matched and nonmatched placebo groups were reported. Bayesian and frequentist covariate-adjusted techniques were compared with 7 intervention-placebo pairs. Exposures: Seven matched and nonmatched placebo pairs (for a total of 7 comparisons) were evaluated throughout the primary platform trial. Comparisons were made between treatment and its associated matched (concurrent) placebo, as well as with nonmatched placebo (alone and in combination) assessed at a similar time point. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes assessed included hospitalizations, EuroQol 5-Dimension 5-level scores, and PROMIS Global-10 scores. Results: A total of 7 intervention-control pairs (N = 2684) were assessed, including 1620 (60.4%) women, with mean (SD) age, 47 (15.2) years; the most common comorbidities were obesity (41.9%) and hypertension (37.9%). In a meta-analysis with decoupled SEs, accounting for overlapping placebo patients, the overall odds ratio (OR) of nonmatched compared with matched placebo was 1.01 (95% credible interval, 0.77-1.32), with posterior probability of equivalence, defined as 0.8 ≤ OR ≤ 1.2 (a deviation from perfect equivalence ie, OR = 1, by no more than 0.2) of 85.4%, implying no significant difference. Unadjusted analysis of the event rate difference between all nonmatched and matched placebo groups did not identify any notable differences across all 7 treatment-placebo combinations assessed. Similar analysis that was conducted for patient-reported quality of life outcomes did not yield statistically significant differences. Conclusions and Relevance: In this post hoc study of a randomized clinical platform trial, pooling matched and nonmatched placebo patient data did not lead to inconsistencies in treatment effect estimation for any of the investigational drugs. These findings may have significant implications for future platform trials, as the use of nonmatched placebo may improve statistical power, or reduce barriers to placebo implementation.

Assessing the performance of group-based trajectory modeling method to discover different patterns of medication adherence.

It is well known that medication adherence is critical to patient outcomes and can decrease patient mortality. The Pharmacy Quality Alliance (PQA) has recognized and identified medication adherence as an important indicator of medication-use quality. Hence, there is a need to use the right methods to assess medication adherence. The PQA has endorsed the proportion of days covered (PDC) as the primary method of measuring adherence. Although easy to calculate, the PDC has however several drawbacks as a method of measuring adherence. PDC is a deterministic approach that cannot capture the complexity of a dynamic phenomenon. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) is increasingly proposed as an alternative to capture heterogeneity in medication adherence. The main goal of this paper is to demonstrate, through a simulation study, the ability of GBTM to capture treatment adherence when compared to its deterministic PDC analogue and to the nonparametric longitudinal K-means. A time-varying treatment was generated as a quadratic function of time, baseline, and time-varying covariates. Three trajectory models are considered combining a cat's cradle effect, and a rainbow effect. The performance of GBTM was compared to the PDC and longitudinal K-means using the absolute bias, the variance, the c-statistics, the relative bias, and the relative variance. For all explored scenarios, we find that GBTM performed better in capturing different patterns of medication adherence with lower relative bias and variance even under model misspecification than PDC and longitudinal K-means.

Developing the surgeon-machine interface: using a novel instance-segmentation framework for intraoperative landmark labelling.

Introduction: The utilisation of artificial intelligence (AI) augments intraoperative safety, surgical training, and patient outcomes. We introduce the term Surgeon-Machine Interface (SMI) to describe this innovative intersection between surgeons and machine inference. A custom deep computer vision (CV) architecture within a sparse labelling paradigm was developed, specifically tailored to conceptualise the SMI. This platform demonstrates the ability to perform instance segmentation on anatomical landmarks and tools from a single open spinal dural arteriovenous fistula (dAVF) surgery video dataset. Methods: Our custom deep convolutional neural network was based on SOLOv2 architecture for precise, instance-level segmentation of surgical video data. Test video consisted of 8520 frames, with sparse labelling of only 133 frames annotated for training. Accuracy and inference time, assessed using F1-score and mean Average Precision (mAP), were compared against current state-of-the-art architectures on a separate test set of 85 additionally annotated frames. Results: Our SMI demonstrated superior accuracy and computing speed compared to these frameworks. The F1-score and mAP achieved by our platform were 17% and 15.2% respectively, surpassing MaskRCNN (15.2%, 13.9%), YOLOv3 (5.4%, 11.9%), and SOLOv2 (3.1%, 10.4%). Considering detections that exceeded the Intersection over Union threshold of 50%, our platform achieved an impressive F1-score of 44.2% and mAP of 46.3%, outperforming MaskRCNN (41.3%, 43.5%), YOLOv3 (15%, 34.1%), and SOLOv2 (9%, 32.3%). Our platform demonstrated the fastest inference time (88ms), compared to MaskRCNN (90ms), SOLOV2 (100ms), and YOLOv3 (106ms). Finally, the minimal amount of training set demonstrated a good generalisation performance -our architecture successfully identified objects in a frame that were not included in the training or validation frames, indicating its ability to handle out-of-domain scenarios. Discussion: We present our development of an innovative intraoperative SMI to demonstrate the future promise of advanced CV in the surgical domain. Through successful implementation in a microscopic dAVF surgery, our framework demonstrates superior performance over current state-of-the-art segmentation architectures in intraoperative landmark guidance with high sample efficiency, representing the most advanced AI-enabled surgical inference platform to date. Our future goals include transfer learning paradigms for scaling to additional surgery types, addressing clinical and technical limitations for performing real-time decoding, and ultimate enablement of a real-time neurosurgical guidance platform.

Virtual student-led neuroscience conferencing: a UK multicentre prospective study investigating delegate outcomes and delivery mode.

BACKGROUND: Clinical neuroscience training programmes are becoming increasingly competitive to enter. UK university neuroscience societies act as a local environment for students to develop their career interests and provide portfolio building opportunities through hosting events such as annual conferences. Recently there has been a transition to more of these events being held online yet the impact of this, if any, remains unclear. This prospective study aimed to identify the impact of student-led neuroscience conferences on delegates and examine attitudes towards an online delivery approach. METHODS: Multi-centre prospective survey study using pre-conference, post-conference, and 6-month post-conference online questionnaires distributed at 6 virtual student-led neuroscience conferences in 2021. The questionnaires had five-domains: demographics, career aspirations, academic skillsets, an educational manipulation check (EMC) and mode of delivery preference. RESULTS: Nine hundred twenty-four surveys were completed across 559 conference attendances. 79.9% of delegates were medical students. Interest in a neuroscience career (p < 0.001), preparedness to undertake research (p < 0.001) and presentation (p < 0.001), as well as EMC scores (p < 0.001) increased immediately post conference. Most participants at 6 months post-attendance had completed an academic project (71.9%) or presentation (50.9%), although 88.8% were lost to follow up. Online format was preferred (65%) with reasons including elimination of travel and access to home facilities whilst lack of face-to-face interaction and engagement were recognised limitations. CONCLUSION: UK student-led online neuroscience conferences play a role in developing knowledge and may facilitate career interest, academic skillset and longer term portfolio building. A hybrid virtual and in-person experience would offer an ideal solution to future conferencing, providing options promoting engagement and interactivity whilst advocating sustainability, accessibility and widening participation.

National audit of pathways in epileptic seizure referrals (NAPIER): A national, multicentre audit of first seizure clinics throughout the UK and Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines set clinical standards for the management of suspected first seizures and epilepsy. We aimed to assess if these standards are being met across first seizure clinics nationally, to describe variations in care and identify opportunities for service delivery improvement. METHODS: Multicentre audit assessing the care of adults (≥16 years) referred to first seizure clinics from 31st December 2019 going backwards (30 consecutive patients per centre). Patients with pre-existing diagnosis of epilepsy were excluded. Anonymised referral, clinic, and follow-up data are reported with descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Data provided for 727 patients from 25 hospitals in the UK and Ireland (median age 41 years [IQR 26-59], 52% males). Median time to review was 48 days (IQR 26-86), with 13.8% (IQR 3.3%-24.0%) of patients assessed within 2 weeks. Seizure recurrence was seen in 12.7% (IQR 6.6%-17.4%) of patients awaiting first appointment. Documentation for witness accounts and driving advice was evident in 85.0% (IQR 74.0%-100%) and 79.7% (IQR 71.2%-96.4%) of first seizure/epilepsy patients, respectively. At first appointment, discussion of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy was documented in 30.1% (IQR 0%-42.5%) of patients diagnosed with epilepsy. In epilepsy patients, median time to MRI neuroimaging was 37 days [IQR 22-56] and EEG was 30 days [IQR 19-47]. 30.4% ([IQR 0%-59.5%]) of epilepsy patients were referred to epilepsy nurse specialists. CONCLUSIONS: There is variability nationally in the documented care of patients referred to first seizure clinics. Many patients are facing delays to assessment with epilepsy specialists with likely subsequent impact on further management.

Follow Your Heart: Trials and Tribulations of Sir Terence English and the First Successful Heart Transplant in the United Kingdom.

The journey of heart transplantation in the United Kingdom (UK) has been marked by challenges and triumphs. Following a series of unsuccessful transplant attempts in 1968, a moratorium was imposed on the procedure. However, in 1979, Sir Terence English broke the national ban, by performing the UK's first successful heart transplant at Papworth Hospital. This achievement opened doors for advancements in heart and lung transplantation and established the Papworth programme as a world leader in the field. Sir Terence's legacy stands as a testament to the transformative power of determination, perseverance and teamwork in overcoming the moratorium, lack of financial support, difficult colleagues and the failure of his first transplant attempt. Through a comprehensive review of the literature, qualitative interviews and Sir Terence's personal contributions, this article provides an account of his trials and tribulations, aiming to inspire and encourage physicians, surgeons and scientists in their pursuit of innovation in the field of medicine.

Extending the vision of adaptive point-of-care platform trials to improve targeted use of drug therapy regimens: An agile approach in the learning healthcare system toolkit.

OBJECTIVES: Improving the targeted use of drug regimens requires robust real-world evidence (RWE) to address the uncertainties that remain regarding their real-world performance following market entry. However, challenges in the current state of RWE production limit its impact on clinical decisions, as well as its operational scalability and sustainability. We propose an adaptive point-of-care (APoC) platform trial as an approach to RWE production that improves both clinical and operational efficiencies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We explored design innovations, operational challenges, and infrastructure needs within a multi-stakeholder consortium to evaluate the potential of an APoC platform trial for studying chronic disease treatment regimens using rheumatoid arthritis as a case study. The concept integrates elements from adaptive clinical trials (dynamic treatment regimen strategies) and point-of-care trials (research embedded into routine clinical care) under a perpetual platform infrastructure. The necessary components to implement an APoC platform trial within outpatient settings exist, and present an opportunity for a cross-disciplinary, multi-stakeholder approach. Effective engagement of key stakeholders involved in and impacted by the platform is critical to success. Our collaborative design process identified three high-impact stakeholder-engagement areas: (1) focus on research question(s), (2) design and implementation planning such that it is feasible and fit-for-purpose, and (3) measurement, or meaningful metrics for both clinical (patient outcomes) and system (operational efficiencies) impact. CONCLUSIONS: An APoC platform trial for rheumatoid arthritis integrating innovative design elements in a scalable infrastructure has the potential to reduce important uncertainties about the real-world performance of biomedical innovations and improve clinical decisions.

Treatment of primitive myxoid mesenchymal tumour of infancy: a management paradigm focusing on surgical nuances.

Primitive myxoid mesenchymal tumour of infancy (PMMTI) is a rare mesenchymal tumour that typically appears in those under 6 months of age and preferentially affects the deep soft tissues of the trunk and paravertebral spinal regions. PMMTI has only recently been described, and there is scarce literature reporting cases regarding the management paradigm of the tumour. We report the case of an 11-week-old male who presented with bilaterally reduced movement and brisk reflexes in his lower limbs, and irritability. Despite numerous radiological investigations, including MRI, PMMTI was only diagnosed upon biopsy and histopathology. Although PMMTI is known to be relatively unresponsive to chemotherapy, we observed a notable decrease in tumour size after a series of chemotherapy sessions. After two-staged surgical resection of the tumour, the patient is currently stable and under close follow-up. In this article, we aim to report on the patient's clinical presentation, investigations, diagnosis, and treatment, while also discussing the findings from a review of the literature pertaining to future approaches in managing PMMTI. Overall, this case highlights the importance of considering PMMTI in the differential diagnosis of deep soft tissue tumours in young infants and the potential for a combination of chemotherapy and surgical resection to be effective in treating this rare tumour.

Management and outcomes of myelomeningocele-associated hydrocephalus in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Hydrocephalus and myelomeningocele (MMC) place disproportionate burdens of disease on low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). MMC-associated hydrocephalus and its sequelae result in a spectrum of severely devastating clinical manifestations, for which LMICs are disproportionately unprepared in terms of human, capital and technological resources. This study aims to review and compare the management and outcomes of infant MMC-associated hydrocephalus in LMICs and high-income countries. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This systematic review and meta-analysis will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 guidelines. The following databases will be searched without restrictions on language, publication date or country of origin: EMBASE, MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, Global Index Medicus, African Journals Online and SciELO. All peer-reviewed studies of primary data reporting management and outcomes of infant MMC-associated hydrocephalus will be included. Where high-quality homogeneous studies exist, meta-analyses will be conducted to compare the management and outcomes of MMC-associated hydrocephalus across socioeconomic and geographical regions of the world. The primary outcome will be treatment failure of the first-line hydrocephalus treatment, which we defined operationally as the performance of a second intervention for the same reason as the first. Secondary outcomes include time to failure, rates of mortality and postoperative complications. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was not applicable because this study does not involve human participants. Dissemination strategies will include publication in a peer-reviewed journal, oral and poster presentations at conferences and an interactive web application to facilitate interaction with the findings and promote the discussion and sharing of findings on social media. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021285850.

A 5-year outcome of propranolol for the treatment of paediatric intracranial cavernoma: case report and a review of the literature.

We describe a case of a young male patient with KRIT1-driven familial cavernous malformation syndrome who developed multiple brain cavernomas, intracranial bleeding, and persistent seizures. Due to the relentless growth of cavernous malformations and recurrent intracranial bleeds, it was decided to enrol the patient in the "Propranolol for Intracranial Cavernoma" (PICC) pilot trial at our institution. Over the 5-year treatment period with 20 to 40-mg oral propranolol three times daily (TDS), we noted the near-complete arrest of the growth of cavernous malformations with no further evidence of intracranial bleeding or any further seizures. The observed outcome is consistent with the extremely limited published literature on the topic; thus, this case provides important evidence that supports the use of propranolol as a prophylactic treatment for paediatric intracranial cavernomas. We strongly encourage and recommend future prospective randomised controlled trials to definitively assess and characterize the therapeutic utility of propranolol in this patient population.

What is the quality of reporting in randomized controlled trials in spinal conditions.

Purpose: Substandard quality across published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) is a major concern. Imperfect reporting has the potential to distort the evidence landscape and waste valuable health-care resources. In this study, we aim to assess the current quality of reporting in the field of spine using a modified version of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) checklist. Materials and Methods: A list of published RCTs in the field of spine disease from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2020, was built. Two reviewers scored the published RCTs against a modified CONSORT checklist. The mean adjusted CONSORT scores for each study, reporting category, and checklist item were calculated. Results: The mean and median scores across all of the RCTs were 0.72 and 0.74 out of 1.00, respectively. The spectrum of scores was wide, ranging from 0.45 to 0.94. The reporting categories with the lowest score included randomization, blinding, and abstract. The items which were most under-reported included allocation sequence generation, type of randomization used, full trial protocol details, and abstract methodology. The inter-rater reliability between our reviewers was substantial (κ = 0.7, κ = 0.71). Conclusion: Our findings correlate with only a moderate level of compliance to the CONSORT criteria on the quality of reporting for RCTs in spinal conditions. This is in line with previous reports on compliance, both within and outside the field of spinal conditions. Further continued and sustained efforts are still required to enhance the quality and consistency of RCT reporting, ultimately reducing health-care resource wastage and improving patient safety.

Is there resource wastage in the research for spinal diseases? An observational analysis of discontinuation and non-publication in randomised controlled trials.

Introduction: The scale of waste in research funding systems is large and detrimental to research capacity. Both incompleteness and non-publication of Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) have been increasingly reported in the literature. This is a serious consequence as RCTs demand monumental amounts of healthcare resources leading to wastage. Most importantly, both under-reporting and non-publication can distort the evidence landscape and obscure rationale behind clinical decisions. Research question: We, therefore, aimed at conducting the first systematic assessment of registered trial discontinuation and non-publication in the field of spinal disorders. Material and methods: A list of RCTs was obtained from the U.S National Library of Medicine ClinicalTrials.gov database from January 1st, 2013, to December 31st, 2020. Two independent authors excluded all non-RCTs, trials unrelated to spinal diseases, and trials that are in or before the recruitment phase. We extracted the progress status, sources of funding, the number of centres, type of intervention, principal investigator's department affiliation, publication status, location, the reason for discontinuation, publication date, and subtopics. Results: 112 trials were included in the study. 25 (22%) trials were discontinued early, with slow recruitment being the major reason (38%). Only 56 (50%) of the trials were published in peer-reviewed journals. The publication rate amongst discontinued trials was significantly lower compared to completed trials (P â€‹< â€‹0·001). The trial discontinuation rate was much higher in trials registered in the United States (US) compared to other countries (P â€‹= â€‹0·009). Industry-sponsored studies had 11 trials (23·4%) that were discontinued whilst there was 20% of non-industry-sponsored studies that were unfinished. Only 20% of the trials were compliant with the FDA reporting requirements over the study period. Discussion and conclusion: Nearly a quarter of all trials in spinal disorders were discontinued. Half of the trials were unpublished. There was over a third of trials that were completed but not published. These rates remain worrisome from an ethical and financial perspective. Both under-reporting and non-publication adversely affect efforts in evidence synthesis and can compromise clinical guideline development.

Role of the glymphatic system in idiopathic intracranial hypertension.

This review discusses the potential significance of glymphatic system dysfunction in the pathophysiology of idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH). IIH is a clinical syndrome characterised by signs and symptoms which arise from raised intracranial pressure (ICP), in the absence of a clear primary cause of intracranial hypertension. The underlying pathophysiological mechanisms driving IIH remain unclear and raised cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) secretion, reduced fluid drainage, and elevated cerebral venous sinus pressure do not fully explain the condition's aetiology. There is a growing literature which implicates the glymphatic system, a mechanism by which fluid moves into the brain parenchyma via peri-arterial channels and out via perivenous spaces and brain lymphatics, in IIH pathogenesis. We propose that aquaporin-4 (AQP4) changes, neurogliovascular unit disruption, a pro-inflammatory CSF profile and impaired glymphatic outflow are the main mechanisms driving glymphatic dysfunction in IIH. However, it remains unclear which of these mechanisms are primary causes and which are secondary effects. Further studies using CSF tracers, electron microscopy, and immunohistochemistry are needed to better evaluate the cellular and molecular pathology associated with IIH at different timepoints in the disease course, which will help elucidate the mechanistic role of the glymphatic system in the condition's pathogenesis.

Economic Evaluation of Cost and Time Required for a Platform Trial vs Conventional Trials.

Importance: Platform trial design allows the introduction of new interventions after the trial is initiated and offers efficiencies to clinical research. However, limited guidance exists on the economic resources required to establish and maintain platform trials. Objective: To compare cost (US dollars) and time requirements of conducting a platform trial vs a series of conventional (nonplatform) trials using a real-life example. Design, Setting, and Participants: For this economic evaluation, an online survey was administered to a group of international experts (146 participants) with publication records of platform trials to elicit their opinions on cost and time to set up and conduct platform, multigroup, and 2-group trials. Using the reported entry dates of 10 interventions into Systemic Therapy in Advancing Metastatic Prostate Cancer: Evaluation of Drug Efficacy, the longest ongoing platform trial, 3 scenarios were designed involving a single platform trial (scenario 1), 1 multigroup followed by 5 2-group trials (scenario 2), and a series of 10 2-group trials (scenario 3). All scenarios started with 5 interventions, then 5 more interventions were either added to the platform or evaluated independently. Simulations with the survey results as inputs were used to compare the platform vs conventional trial designs. Data were analyzed from July to September 2021. Exposure: Platform trial design. Main Outcomes and Measures: Total trial setup and conduct cost and cumulative duration. Results: Although setup time and cost requirements of a single trial were highest for the platform trial, cumulative requirements of setting up a series of multiple trials in scenarios 2 and 3 were larger. Compared with the platform trial, there was a median (IQR) increase of 216.7% (202.2%-242.5%) in cumulative setup costs for scenario 2 and 391.1% (365.3%-437.9%) for scenario 3. In terms of total cost, there was a median (IQR) increase of 17.4% (12.1%-22.5%) for scenario 2 and 57.5% (43.1%-69.9%) for scenario 3. There was a median (IQR) increase in cumulative trial duration of 171.1% (158.3%-184.3%) for scenario 2 and 311.9% (282.0%-349.1%) for scenario 3. Cost and time reductions in the platform trial were observed in both the initial and subsequently evaluated interventions. Conclusions and Relevance: Although setting up platform trials can take longer and be costly, the findings of this study suggest that having a single infrastructure can improve efficiencies with respect to costs and efforts.

Social and psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on UK medical and nursing students: protocol for a national medical and nursing student survey.

INTRODUCTION: Healthcare students have played a significant role in the National Health Service during the COVID-19 pandemic. We captured data on the well-being of medical students during the acute phase of the pandemic with the Social and Psychological Impact of COVID-19 on medical students: a national survey Evaluation (SPICE-19) study. We will evaluate changes in mental health and well-being of medical and nursing students 1 year after SPICE-19, in a cross-sectional study, to understand the impact of the pandemic, and inform well-being policies. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will be a national, multi-institution, cross-discipline study. An online 53-item survey of demographics, mental health and well-being will be used to record responses. Students studying for a medical or nursing degree at any UK universities will be eligible to participate. The survey will be advertised through the Neurology and Neurosurgery Interest Group national network. Participation is anonymous and voluntary, with relevant mental health resources made available to participants. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was granted by the University of Oxford Central University Research Ethics Committee (R75719/RE001) on 21 May 2021. Study findings will be presented at national and international meetings, and submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.