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AIM: To estimate scenarios for survival for patients with estrogen receptor (ER) positive, metastatic breast cancer (MBC) and to help communicate prognosis to patients starting endocrine therapy (ET) METHODS: We searched for randomized trials of ET for ER-positive MBC and extracted the following percentiles (representative survival scenarios) from each overall survival (OS) curve: 90th (worst-case), 75th (lower-typical), 50th (median), 25th (upper-typical), and 10th (best-case). We then assessed the accuracy of estimating these percentiles for each OS curve by multiplying the median OS by four simple multiples: 0.25 (to estimate the 90th percentile), 0.5 (75th), 2 (25th), and 3 (10th). Estimates were deemed accurate if it fell within 0.75-1.33 times the actual value. RESULTS: We identified 25 trials with 10,566 patients. The median OS (interquartile range) was: 61.3 months (53.4-64.8) for first-line ET with cyclin-dependant kinase 4/6 inhibitors (four treatment groups); 42.6 months (40.9-50.4) for first-line ET alone (21 treatment groups) and 29.2 months (24.8-33.4) for subsequent line ET (19 treatment groups). Simple multiples of the median OS accurately estimated the 90th percentile in 80%; 75th percentile in 93%; and 25th percentile in 76% of curves. The 10th percentile was only available for four OS curves and could not be evaluated. CONCLUSION: Simple multiples of the median OS are a helpful and accurate method to assist in estimating and discussing scenarios for survival for MBC patients starting ET. Longer follow-up of trials is required to help clinicians estimate the best-case scenario.
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Introduction: Spinal epidural metastases (SEM) are an uncommon phenomenon and traditionally occur as a preterminal event in heavily pre-treated patients. The introduction of novel anti-androgen therapies, such as enzalutamide and abiraterone acetate, has greatly improved the survival of patients with metastatic prostate cancer but may be changing the pattern of disease. Case Presentation: Four patients diagnosed with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) were commenced on enzalutamide prior to chemotherapy. Baseline scans in all patients demonstrated extensive bony disease and lymph node involvement. All patients experienced a moderate initial PSA response to treatment (median PSA at baseline 53.5 ng/mL to median nadir 24.5 ng/mL). In all four cases, clinical presentation of spinal cord compression was unexpected with no prodromal neurological symptoms, PSA levels either stable or slowly rising, and CT scans and whole-body bone scans showing stable disease at other metastatic sites. Whole-spine MRI on presentation of neurological deficits showed epidural and dural metastases on the background of stable bone disease. Spinal cord compression occurred at a median of 11.4 months after starting enzalutamide. Conclusion: Clinicians should be aware of this change in the pattern of CRPC in patients treated with novel anti-androgen therapy. Onset of "silent" spinal cord compression due to SEM rather than bone metastases, can occur relatively early with minimal warning despite stable disease on PSA and standard imaging. Differential progression in nontraditional sites suggests that research into the androgen microenvironment in a wide range of tissue sites should be undertaken, and may explain why prostate cancer metastasizes preferentially to bone and lymph nodes.
