Hill numbers at the edge of a pandemic: rapid SARS-COV2 surveillance without alignments or trees

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the critical role of genomic surveillance for guiding policy and control strategies. Timeliness is key, but rapid deployment of existing surveillance is difficult because most approaches are based on sequence alignment and phylogeny. Millions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been assembled, the largest collection of sequence data in history. Phylogenetic methods are ill equipped to handle this sheer scale. We introduce a pan-genomic measure that examines the information diversity of a k-mer library drawn from a countrys complete set of clinical, pooled, or wastewater sequence. Quantifying diversity is central to ecology. Studies that measure the diversity of various environments increasingly use the concept of Hill numbers, or the effective number of species in a sample, to provide a simple metric for comparing species diversity across environments. The more diverse the sample, the higher the Hill number. We adopt this ecological approach and consider each k-mer an individual and each genome a transect in the pan-genome of the species. Applying Hill numbers in this way allows us to summarize the temporal trajectory of pandemic variants by collapsing each days assemblies into genomic equivalents. For pooled or wastewater sequence, we instead compare sets of days represented by survey sequence divorced from individual infections. We do both calculations quickly, without alignment or trees, using modern genome sketching techniques to accommodate millions of genomes or terabases of raw sequence in one condensed view of pandemic dynamics. Using data from the UK, USA, and South Africa, we trace the ascendance of new variants of concern as they emerge in local populations. Using data from San Diego wastewater, we monitor these same population changes from raw, unassembled sequence. This history of emerging variants senses all available data as it is sequenced, intimating variant sweeps to dominance or declines to extinction at the leading edge of the COVID19 pandemic.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the pediatric population of the United States

The evolution of SARS-CoV2 virus has led to the emergence of variants of concern (VOC). Children, particularly <12 years old not yet eligible for vaccines, continue to be important reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 yet VOC prevalence data in this population is lacking. We report data from a genomic surveillance program that includes 9 U.S. childrens hospitals. Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 2119 patients <19 years old between 03/20 to 04/21 identified 252 VOCs and 560 VOC signature mutations, most from 10/20 onwards. From 02/21 to 04/21, B.1.1.7 prevalence increased from 3.85% to 72.22% corresponding with the decline of B.1.429/B.1.427 from 51.82% to 16.67% at one institution. 71.74% of the VOC signature mutations detected were in children <12 years old, including 33 cases of B.1.1.7 and 119 of B.1.429/B.1.427. There continues to be a need for ongoing genomic surveillance, particularly among young children who will be the last groups to be vaccinated.

Early pandemic molecular diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in children

BackgroundIn the US, community circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus likely began in February 2020 after mostly travel-related cases. Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia began testing on 3/9/2020 for pediatric and adult patients, and for all admitted patients on 4/1/2020, allowing an early glimpse into the local molecular epidemiology of the virus. MethodsWe obtained 169 SARS-CoV-2 samples (83 from patients <21 years old) from March through May and produced whole genome sequences. We used genotyping tools to track variants over time and to test for possible genotype associated clinical presentations and outcomes in children. ResultsOur analysis uncovered 13 major lineages that changed in relative abundance as cases peaked in mid-April in Philadelphia. We detected at least 6 introductions of distinct viral variants into the population. As a group, children had more diverse virus genotypes than the adults tested. No strong differences in clinical variables were associated with genotypes. ConclusionsWhole genome analysis revealed unexpected diversity, and distinct circulating viral variants within the initial peak of cases in Philadelphia. Most introductions appeared to be local from nearby states. Although limited by sample size, we found no evidence that different genotypes had different clinical impacts in children in this study. SummaryUsing sequencing and a novel technique for quantifying SARS-CoV-2 diversity, we investigated 169 SARS-CoV-2 genomes (83 <21 years old). This analysis revealed unexpected diversity especially in children. No clear differences in clinical presentation were associated with the different virus lineages.