Cure models, survival probabilities, and solid organ transplantation for patients with colorectal cancer.

A previous cancer diagnosis can preclude patients from consideration for solid organ transplantation. Statistical models may improve candidate selection. We fitted statistical cure models and estimated five-year cancer-specific survival (5yCSS) for colorectal cancer patients in the United States using registry data. The median cure probability at cancer diagnosis for patients in the general population was 0.67. Among 956 colorectal cancer patients who underwent solid organ transplantation, the median time since diagnosis was 6.3 years and the median 5yCSS at transplantation was 0.96. Patients with a 5yCSS below 0.90 had increased posttransplant cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio 3.31, 95% confidence interval 1.52-7.21). Compared with recently published guidelines, our models suggested shorter wait times for some groups of colorectal cancer patients (e.g., stage IIA cancers) and longer wait times for others (stages IIB, IIIB, IIIC, IV). In conclusion, colorectal cancer patients undergoing solid organ transplantation had excellent prognoses, reflecting selection incorporating existing guidelines and clinical judgement. Nonetheless, 5yCSS probabilities estimated from cure models offer additional prognostic information for patients considered for transplantation and identify situations where current guidelines might be revised. We developed a web-based tool for clinicians to calculate 5yCSS probabilities for use in transplant evaluation for individual colorectal cancer patients (https://dceg.cancer.gov/tools/risk-assessment/calculator-of-colorectal-cancer-survival-probability).

Neighborhood Archetypes and Cardiovascular Health in Black Breast Cancer Survivors.

Background: Maintaining cardiovascular health (CVH) is critical for breast cancer (BC) survivors, particularly given the potential cardiotoxic effects of cancer treatments. Poor CVH among Black BC survivors may be influenced by various area-level social determinants of health, yet the impact of neighborhood archetypes in CVH among this population remains understudied. Objectives: This study aimed to characterize the neighborhood archetypes where Black BC survivors resided at diagnosis and evaluate their associations with CVH. Methods: We assessed CVH 24 months post-diagnosis in 713 participants diagnosed between 2012 and 2017 in the Women's Circle of Health Follow-Up Study, a population-based study of Black BC survivors in New Jersey. Neighborhood archetypes, identified via latent class analysis based on 16 social and built environment features, were categorized into tertiles. Associations between neighborhood archetypes and CVH scores were estimated using polytomous logistic regression. Results: CVH scores were assessed categorically (low, moderate, and optimal) and as continuous variables. On average, Black BC survivors achieved only half of the recommended score for optimal CVH. Among the 4 identified archetypes, women in the Mostly Culturally Black and Hispanic/Mixed Land Use archetype showed the lowest CVH scores. Compared to this archetype, Black BC survivors in the Culturally Diverse/Mixed Land Use archetype were nearly 3 times as likely to have optimal CVH (relative risk ratio: 2.92; 95% CI: 1.58-5.40), with a stronger association observed in younger or premenopausal women. No significant CVH differences were noted for the other 2 archetypes with fewer built environment features. Conclusions: Neighborhood archetypes, integrating social and built environment factors, may represent crucial targets for promoting CVH among BC survivors.

Sex differences in cancer incidence among solid organ transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Males have 2-3-fold greater risk of cancer than females at most shared anatomic sites, possibly reflecting enhanced immune surveillance against cancer in females. We examined whether these sex differences remained among immunocompromised adults. METHODS: Using the Transplant Cancer Match (TCM) study, we estimated the male-to-female incidence rate ratio in TCM (M:F IRRTransplant) for 15 cancer sites diagnosed between 1995 and 2017 using Poisson regression. Male to female IRRs in the general population (M:F IRRGP) were calculated using expected cancer counts from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, standardized to the transplant population on age, race and ethnicity, and diagnosis year. Male to female IRRs were compared using a chi-square test. RESULTS: Among 343 802 solid organ transplants, 211 206 (61.4%) were among men and 132 596 (38.6%) among women. An excess cancer incidence in males was seen in transplant recipients, but the sex difference was attenuated for cancers of the lip (M:F IRRTransplant: 1.81 vs M:F IRRGP: 3.96; P < .0001), stomach (1.51 vs 2.09; P = .002), colorectum (0.98 vs 1.43; P < .0001), liver (2.39 vs 3.44; P = .002), kidney (1.67 vs 2.24; P < .0001), bladder (2.02 vs 4.19; P < .0001), Kaposi sarcoma (1.79 vs 3.26; P = .0009), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (1.34 vs 1.64; P < .0001). The M:F IRRTransplant was not statistically different from the M:F IRRGP for other cancer sites. CONCLUSIONS: Although male solid organ transplant recipients have higher cancer incidence than female recipients, the attenuation in the male to female ratio for many cancers studied relative to the general population might suggest the importance of immunosurveillance, with some loss of advantage in female recipients due to immunosuppression after transplantation.

Survival by sex and HIV status in patients with anal cancer in the USA between 2001 and 2019: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of anal cancer is increased among people with HIV, particularly men who have sex with men. Estimating survival by HIV status and sex and identifying groups at high risk is crucial for documenting prognostic differences between populations. We aimed to compare all-cause and anal cancer-specific survival in patients with anal cancer with and without HIV, stratified by sex, and to identify predictors of survival, stratified by HIV status. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study of 13 population-based HIV and cancer registries throughout the USA. We included individuals aged 20-79 years diagnosed with invasive anal cancer between 2001 and 2019. To estimate associations between HIV status and both all-cause and anal cancer-specific mortality overall, we used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for year of and age at diagnosis, sex, race and ethnicity, histology, cancer stage, region, and treatment. We also calculated sex-specific adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). By HIV status, we identified characteristics associated with mortality. Models among people with HIV were further adjusted for AIDS status and HIV transmission risk group. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, 1161 (43·6%) of 2662 patients with anal cancer and HIV and 7722 (35·4%) of 21 824 patients without HIV died. HIV was associated with a 1·35 times (95% CI 1·24-1·47) increase in all-cause mortality among male patients and a 2·47 times (2·10-2·90) increase among female patients. Among patients with HIV, all-cause mortality was increased among non-Hispanic Black individuals (adjusted HR 1·19, 95% CI 1·04-1·38), people with AIDS (1·36, 1·10-1·68), people who inject drugs (PWID; 1·49, 1·17-1·90), patients with adenocarcinoma (2·74, 1·82-4·13), and those with no or unknown surgery treatment (1·34, 1·18-1·53). HIV was associated with anal cancer-specific mortality among female patients only (1·52, 1·18-1·97). Among patients with HIV, anal cancer-specific mortality was increased among patients with adenocarcinoma (3·29, 1·89-5·72), those with no or unknown treatment (1·59, 1·17-2·17), and PWID (1·60, 1·05-2·44). INTERPRETATION: HIV was associated with all-cause mortality among patients with anal cancer, especially women. Anal cancer-specific mortality was elevated among female patients with HIV. As screening for anal cancer becomes more widespread, examining the effects of screening on survival by HIV status and sex is crucial. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute Intramural Research Program.

Severe anal intraepithelial neoplasia trends and subsequent invasive anal cancer in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III is a precursor to squamous cell carcinoma of the anus for which rates are nearly 20-fold higher in people with HIV than in the general population in the United States. We describe trends in anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis and risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III by HIV status and sex. METHODS: We used data from a population-based linkage between cancer and HIV registries in 11 US states; Puerto Rico; and Washington, DC, during 1996-2019. We identified all individuals with a diagnosis of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III and determined their HIV status. We estimated the average annual percentage change of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III using Poisson regression stratified by HIV status and sex. We estimated the 5-year cumulative incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following an anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis stratified by sex, HIV status, and prior AIDS diagnosis. RESULTS: Among people with HIV, average annual percentage changes for anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III were 15% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 12% to 17%) per year among females and 12% (95% CI = 11% to 14%) among males. Average annual percentage changes for those without HIV were 8% (95% CI = 7% to 8%) for females and 8% (95% CI = 6% to 9%) for males. Among people with HIV, a prior AIDS diagnosis was associated with a 2.7-fold (95% CI = 2.23 to 3.40) and 1.9-fold (95% CI = 1.72 to 2.02) increased risk of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis for females and males, respectively. Five-year cumulative incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the anus following anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III for people with HIV with a prior AIDS diagnosis were 3.4% and 3.7% for females and males, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnoses have increased since 1996, particularly for people with HIV, likely influenced by increased screening. A prior AIDS diagnosis was strongly associated with risk of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade III diagnosis.

Association of Cigarette Smoking and Alcohol Consumption With Subsequent Mortality Among Black Breast Cancer Survivors in New Jersey.

Importance: There are limited data about how lifestyle factors are associated with breast cancer prognosis among Black or African American women because most of the evidence is based on studies of White breast cancer survivors. Objective: To examine the association of prediagnostic cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption with all-cause mortality and breast cancer-specific mortality in a cohort of Black breast cancer survivors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study included 1926 Black or African American breast cancer survivors who received a diagnosis from June 6, 2005, to May 21, 2019, identified in 10 counties in New Jersey through rapid case ascertainment by the New Jersey State Cancer Registry. Statistical analysis was conducted from January 1, 2021, to August 1, 2022. Exposures: Information on prediagnostic cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and additional covariates was collected during in-person interviews. The covariates examined included smoking status at the time of breast cancer diagnosis (currently smoking at the time of breast cancer diagnosis, formerly smoking, or never smoking), smoking duration (number of years smoking), smoking intensity (cigarettes smoked per day), number of pack-years of smoking, and regular alcohol consumption the year before diagnosis (categorized as nondrinkers, ≤3 drinks per week, or >3 drinks per week). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes included breast cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality. Results: Among the 1926 women in the study, the mean (SD) age at breast cancer diagnosis was 54.4 (10.8) years. During 13 464 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up, 6.7 years [range, 0.5-16.0 years]), there were 337 deaths, of which 187 (55.5%) were breast cancer related. Compared with never smokers, current smokers at the time of breast cancer diagnosis had a 52% increased risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52; 95% CI, 1.15-2.02), which was most pronounced for those with 10 or more pack-years of smoking (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.34-2.53). Similar findings were observed for breast cancer-specific mortality (current smokers vs never smokers: HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.87-1.85), although they were not statistically significant. There was no statistically significant association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality (>3 drinks per week vs nondrinkers: HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.73-1.51) or breast cancer-specific mortality (>3 drinks per week vs nondrinkers: HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.67-1.67). Conclusions and Relevance: This population-based cohort study of Black breast cancer survivors suggests that current smoking at the time of diagnosis was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, particularly among women with greater pack-years of smoking.

Impact of HIV on Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Rates in the United States, 2001-2015.

BACKGROUND: Incidence of anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) has increased in the United States. People living with HIV (PLWH) have an elevated risk of anal SCC, and changes in the number of anal SCCs among PLWH may have influenced general population trends. METHODS: Data were obtained from a linkage of HIV and cancer registries in 12 US regions. The proportion of anal SCCs occurring among PLWH was estimated by sex, age group, and race and ethnicity. To assess the impact of anal SCCs among PLWH on general population trends, annual percent changes (APCs) in incidence rates including and excluding anal SCCs among PLWH were estimated. RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2015, 14.5% of 16 110 anal SCC diagnoses occurred in PLWH. In 2013-2015, 35% of anal SCCs among men occurred in PLWH, but only 2% among women. The proportion of anal SCCs among PLWH was highest among 20- to 49-year-olds and Black and Hispanic individuals. General population anal SCC trends among men were strongly influenced by anal SCCs among PLWH: rates increased 4.6%/y (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4% to 8.0%) from 2001 to 2009 followed by a statistically non-significant decline (APC = -2.7%/y, 95% CI = -7.1% to 2.0%) from 2009 to 2015, but without anal SCCs among PLWH, rates were stable (APC = 0.7%/y, 95% CI = -0.8% to 2.3%). Anal SCC rates among women increased 3.8%/y (95% CI = 3.2% to 4.4%) during 2001-2012 and then declined statistically non-significantly (APC = -3.8%/y, 95% CI = -6.9% to -0.6%), and anal SCCs among PLWH had little impact on these trends. CONCLUSIONS: During 2001-2015, anal SCCs among PLWH contributed strongly to changes in incidence trends in the general US population among men, but not women.

Cancer risk in living kidney donors.

Living kidney donors are screened for transmissible diseases including cancer. Outcomes following donation are excellent, but concern exists regarding development of chronic kidney disease, and cancer risk is unknown. We used linked transplant and cancer registry data to identify incident cancers among 84,357 kidney donors in the United States (1995-2017). We compared risk with the general population using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). For selected cancers, we used Poisson regression to compare donors with 47,451 Adventist Health Study 2 (AHS-2) participants, who typically have healthy lifestyles. During follow-up, 2843 cancers were diagnosed in donors, representing an overall deficit (SIR 0.79, 95%CI 0.76-0.82). None of 46 specified cancer sites occurred in excess relative to the general population, and 15 showed significant deficits (SIR < 1.00). Compared with AHS-2 participants, donors had similar incidence of liver cancer, melanoma, breast cancer, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma but, starting 7 years after donation, elevated incidence of colorectal cancer (adjusted incidence rate ratio 2.07, 95%CI 1.54-2.79) and kidney cancer (2.97, 1.58-5.58, accounting for the presence of a single kidney in donors). Elevated kidney cancer incidence may reflect adverse processes in donors' remaining kidney. Nonetheless, cancer risk is lower than in the general population, suggesting that enhanced screening is unnecessary.

Multilevel Factors for Adiposity Change in a Population-Based Prospective Study of Black Breast Cancer Survivors.

PURPOSE: Unfavorable weight change after breast cancer diagnosis increases the risk of mortality, but individual and neighborhood risk factors affecting postdiagnosis weight and body fat changes are unclear among Black women, who have higher rates of obesity and mortality than any other racial/ethnic group. METHODS: Adiposity changes during the period approximately 10 months-24 months after diagnosis were evaluated among 785 women diagnosed between 2012 and 2018 and enrolled in the Women's Circle of Health Follow-Up Study, a population-based prospective cohort of Black breast cancer survivors in New Jersey. Multilevel factors for weight and fat mass change (with gain or loss defined as a relative difference of 3% or more, and considering whether changes were intentional or unintentional) were estimated using multivariable polytomous logistic regressions and multilevel models. RESULTS: Adiposity gain was prevalent: 28% and 47% gained weight and body fat, respectively, despite a high baseline prevalence of overweight or obesity (86%). Risk factors for fat mass gain included receiving chemotherapy (relative risk ratio: 1.59, 95% CI, 1.08 to 2.33) and residing in neighborhoods with a greater density of fast-food restaurants (relative risk ratio comparing highest with lowest tertile: 2.18, 95% CI, 1.38 to 3.46); findings were similar for weight gain. Only 9% of women had intentional weight loss, and multilevel risk factors differed vastly from unintentional loss. CONCLUSION: Both individual and neighborhood factors were associated with adiposity change among Black breast cancer survivors. Residential environment characteristics may offer clinically meaningful information to identify cancer survivors at higher risk for unfavorable weight change and to address barriers to postdiagnosis weight management.

Life-years lost due to cancer among solid organ transplant recipients in the United States, 1987 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: Solid organ transplant recipients have an elevated risk of cancer. Quantifying the life-years lost (LYL) due to cancer provides a complementary view of the burden of cancer distinct from other metrics and may identify subgroups of transplant recipients who are most affected. METHODS: Linked transplant and cancer registry data were used to identify incident cancers and deaths among solid organ transplant recipients in the United States (1987-2014). Data on LYL due to cancer within 10 years posttransplant were derived using mean survival estimates from Cox models. RESULTS: Among 221,962 transplant recipients, 13,074 (5.9%) developed cancer within 10 years of transplantation. During this period, the mean LYL due to cancer were 0.16 years per transplant recipient and 2.7 years per cancer case. Cancer was responsible for a loss of 1.9% of the total life-years expected in the absence of cancer in this population. Lung recipients had the highest proportion of total LYL due to cancer (0.45%) followed by heart recipients (0.29%). LYL due to cancer increased with age, from 0.5% among those aged birth to 34 years at transplant to 3.2% among those aged 50 years and older. Among recipients overall, lung cancer was the largest contributor, accounting for 24% of all LYL due to cancer, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma had the next highest contribution (15%). CONCLUSIONS: Transplant recipients have a shortened lifespan after developing cancer. Lung cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma contribute strongly to LYL due to cancer within the first 10 years after transplant, highlighting opportunities to reduce cancer mortality through prevention and screening.

Oral Cyanobacteria and Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Gut microbial alterations have been linked to chronic liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The role of the oral microbiome in liver cancer development has not been widely investigated. METHODS: Bacterial 16S rRNA sequences were evaluated in oral samples from 90 HCC cases and 90 controls who were a part of a larger U.S. case-control study of HCC among patients diagnosed from 2011 to 2016. RESULTS: The oral microbiome of HCC cases showed significantly reduced alpha diversity compared with controls (Shannon P = 0.002; Simpson P = 0.049), and beta diversity significantly differed (weighted Unifrac P = 0.004). The relative abundance of 30 taxa significantly varied including Cyanobacteria, which was enriched in cases compared with controls (P = 0.018). Cyanobacteria was positively associated with HCC [OR, 8.71; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.22-62.00; P = 0.031] after adjustment for age, race, birthplace, education, smoking, alcohol, obesity, type 2 diabetes, Hepatitis C virus (HCV), Hepatitis B virus (HBV), fatty liver disease, aspirin use, other NSAID use, laboratory batch, and other significant taxa. When stratified by HCC risk factors, significant associations of Cyanobacteria with HCC were exclusively observed among individuals with negative histories of established risk factors as well as females and college graduates. Cyanobacterial genes positively associated with HCC were specific to taxa producing microcystin, the hepatotoxic tumor promotor, and other genes known to be upregulated with microcystin exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides novel evidence that oral Cyanobacteria may be an independent risk factor for HCC. IMPACT: These findings support future studies to further examine the causal relationship between oral Cyanobacteria and HCC risk.

Pathways between objective and perceived neighborhood factors among Black breast cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: Mounting evidence supports associations between objective neighborhood disorder, perceived neighborhood disorder, and health, yet alternative explanations involving socioeconomic and neighborhood social cohesion have been understudied. We tested pathways between objective and perceived neighborhood disorder, perceived neighborhood social cohesion, and socioeconomic factors within a longitudinal cohort. METHODS: Demographic and socioeconomic information before diagnosis was obtained at interviews conducted approximately 10 months post-diagnosis from participants in the Women's Circle of Health Follow-up Study - a cohort of breast cancer survivors self-identifying as African American or Black women (n = 310). Neighborhood perceptions were obtained during follow-up interviews conducted approximately 24 months after diagnosis. Objective neighborhood disorder was from 9 items audited across 23,276 locations using Google Street View and scored to estimate disorder values at each participant's residential address at diagnosis. Census tract socioeconomic and demographic composition covariates were from the 2010 U.S. Census and American Community Survey. Pathways to perceived neighborhood disorder were built using structural equation modelling. Model fit was assessed from the comparative fit index and root mean square error approximation and associations were reported as standardized coefficients and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Higher perceived neighborhood disorder was associated with higher objective neighborhood disorder (ß = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.33), lower neighborhood social cohesion, and lower individual-level socioeconomic factors (final model root mean square error approximation 0.043 (90% CI: 0.013, 0.068)). Perceived neighborhood social cohesion was associated with individual-level socioeconomic factors and objective neighborhood disorder (ß = - 0.11, 95% CI: - 0.24, 0.02). CONCLUSION: Objective neighborhood disorder might be related to perceived disorder directly and indirectly through perceptions of neighborhood social cohesion.

Predicted Cure and Survival Among Transplant Recipients With a Previous Cancer Diagnosis.

PURPOSE: A previous cancer diagnosis is a negative consideration in evaluating patients for possible solid organ transplantation. Statistical models may improve selection of patients with cancer evaluated for transplantation. METHODS: We fitted statistical cure models for patients with cancer in the US general population using data from 13 cancer registries. Patients subsequently undergoing solid organ transplantation were identified through the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. We estimated cure probabilities at diagnosis (for all patients with cancer) and transplantation (transplanted patients). We used Cox regression to assess associations of cure probability at transplantation with subsequent cancer-specific mortality. RESULTS: Among 10,524,326 patients with 17 cancer types in the general population, the median cure probability at diagnosis was 62%. Of these patients, 5,425 (0.05%) subsequently underwent solid organ transplantation and their median cure probability at transplantation was 94% (interquartile range, 86%-98%). Compared with the tertile of transplanted patients with highest cure probability, those in the lowest tertile more frequently had lung or breast cancers and less frequently colorectal, testicular, or thyroid cancers; more frequently had advanced-stage cancer; were older (median 57 v 51 years); and were transplanted sooner after cancer diagnosis (median 3.6 v 8.6 years). Patients in the low-cure probability tertile had increased cancer-specific mortality after transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.48 to 2.93; v the high tertile), whereas those in the middle tertile did not differ. CONCLUSION: Patients with cancer who underwent solid organ transplantation exhibited high cure probabilities, reflecting selection on the basis of existing guidelines and clinical judgment. Nonetheless, there was a range of cure probabilities among transplanted patients and low probability predicted increased cancer-specific mortality after transplantation. Cure probabilities may facilitate guideline development and evaluating individual patients for transplantation.

Association of Body Mass Index, Central Obesity, and Body Composition With Mortality Among Black Breast Cancer Survivors.

IMPORTANCE: Obesity disproportionately affects Black women, who also have a higher risk of death after a breast cancer diagnosis compared with women of other racial/ethnic groups. However, few studies have evaluated the association of measures of adiposity with mortality among Black breast cancer survivors. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of measures of adiposity with survival after a breast cancer diagnosis among Black women. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective population-based cohort study comprised 1891 women with stage 0 to IV breast cancer who self-identified as African American or Black and were ages 20 to 75 years. The New Jersey State Cancer Registry was used to identify women living in 10 counties in New Jersey who were recruited from March 1, 2006, to February 29, 2020, and followed up until September 2, 2020. EXPOSURES: Measures of adiposity, including body mass index, body fat distribution (waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio), and body composition (percent body fat and fat mass index), were collected during in-person interviews at approximately 10 months after breast cancer diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality. RESULTS: Among 1891 women, the mean (SD) age at breast cancer diagnosis was 54.5 (10.8) years. During a median follow-up of 5.9 years (range, 0.5-14.8 years), 286 deaths were identified; of those, 175 deaths (61.2%) were associated with breast cancer. A total of 1060 women (56.1%) had obesity, and 1291 women (68.3%) had central obesity. Higher adiposity, particularly higher waist-to-hip ratio, was associated with worse survival. Women in the highest quartile of waist-to-hip ratio had a 61% increased risk of dying from any cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% CI, 1.12-2.33) and a 68% increased risk of breast cancer death (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.04-2.71) compared with women in the lowest quartile. The risks of all-cause and breast cancer-specific death were similarly high among women in the highest quartile for waist circumference (HR, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.26-2.41] and 1.64 [95% CI, 1.08-2.48], respectively), percent body fat (HR, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.09-2.15] and 1.81 [95% CI, 1.17-2.80]), and fat mass index (HR, 1.57 [95% CI, 1.11-2.22] and 1.74 [95% CI, 1.10-2.75]); however, the risk was less substantial for body mass index (HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 0.89-1.79] and 1.33 [95% CI, 0.84-2.10]). In analyses stratified by estrogen receptor status, menopausal status, and age, a higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a higher risk of all-cause death among women who had estrogen receptor-negative tumors (HR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.14-4.41), women who were postmenopausal (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.28-3.61), and women who were 60 years or older at diagnosis (HR per 0.10-U increase, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.37-2.26). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this population-based cohort study, central obesity and higher adiposity were associated with higher all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality among Black breast cancer survivors. Simple measures of body fat distribution and body composition were found to be useful tools for identifying Black women with a higher risk of death after a breast cancer diagnosis.

Cervical cancer incidence stratified by age in women with HIV compared with the general population in the United States, 2002-2016.

OBJECTIVE: Recommendations for the age of initiating screening for cervical cancer in women with HIV (WWH) in the United States have not changed since 1995 when all women (regardless of immune status) were screened for cervical cancer from the age of onset of sexual activity, which often occurs in adolescence. By 2009, recognizing the lack of benefit as well as harms in screening young women, guidelines were revised to initiate cervical cancer screening for the general population at age 21 years. By comparing cervical cancer incidence in young WWH to that of the general population, we assessed the potential for increasing the recommended age of initiating cervical cancer screening in WWH. DESIGN: We compared age-specific invasive cervical cancer (ICC) rates among WWH to the general population in the United States HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study. METHODS: We estimated standardized incidence ratios as the observed number of cervical cancer cases among WWH divided by the expected number, standardized to the general population by age, race/ethnicity, registry, and calendar year. RESULTS: ICC rates among WWH were elevated across all age groups between ages 25 and 54 years (SIR = 3.80; 95% CI 3.48--4.15) but there were zero cases among ages less than 25 years. CONCLUSION: The absence of ICC among WWH less than 25 years supports initiating cervical cancer screening at age 21 years, rather than adolescence, to prevent cancers in WWH at ages with higher risk of ICC.

Solid Organ Transplantation and Survival among Individuals with a History of Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The success of immunotherapy highlights a possible role for immunity in controlling cancer during remission for patients with cancer in the general population. A prior cancer diagnosis is common among solid organ transplant candidates, and immunosuppressive medications administered to transplant recipients may increase recurrence risk. METHODS: Using linked data from the United States solid organ transplant registry and 13 cancer registries, we compared overall and cancer-specific survival among patients with cancer who did versus did not receive subsequent transplantation. We used Cox regression in cohort and matched analyses, controlling for demographic factors, cancer stage, and time since cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: The study included 10,524,326 patients with cancer, with 17 cancer types; 5,425 (0.05%) subsequently underwent solid organ transplantation. The median time from cancer diagnosis to transplantation was 5.7 years. Transplantation was associated with reduced overall survival for most cancers, especially cervical, testicular, and thyroid cancers [adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for overall mortality, 3.43-4.88]. In contrast, transplantation was not associated with decreased cancer-specific survival for any cancer site, and we observed inverse associations for patients with breast cancer (aHRs for cancer-specific mortality, 0.65-0.67), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (0.50-0.51), and myeloma (0.39-0.42). CONCLUSIONS: Among U.S. patients with cancer, subsequent organ transplantation was associated with reduced overall survival, likely due to end-stage organ disease and transplant-related complications. However, we did not observe adverse associations with cancer-specific survival, partly reflecting careful candidate selection. IMPACT: These results do not demonstrate a detrimental effect of immunosuppression on cancer-specific survival and support current management strategies for transplant candidates with previous cancer diagnoses.

The Impact of Liver Transplantation on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Mortality in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) carries a poor prognosis. Liver transplantation (LT) is potentially curative for localized HCC. We evaluated the impact of LT on U.S. general population HCC-specific mortality rates. METHODS: The Transplant Cancer Match Study links the U.S. transplant registry with 17 cancer registries. We calculated age-standardized incidence (1987-2017) and incidence-based mortality (IBM) rates (1991-2017) for adult HCCs. We partitioned population-level IBM rates by cancer stage and calculated counterfactual IBM rates assuming transplanted cases had not received a transplant. RESULTS: Among 129,487 HCC cases, 45.9% had localized cancer. HCC incidence increased on average 4.0% annually [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.6-4.5]. IBM also increased for HCC overall (2.9% annually; 95% CI = 1.7-4.2) and specifically for localized stage HCC (4.8% annually; 95% CI = 4.0-5.5). The proportion of HCC-related transplants jumped sharply from 6.7% (2001) to 18.0% (2002), and further increased to 40.0% (2017). HCC-specific mortality declined among both nontransplanted and transplanted cases over time. In the absence of transplants, IBM for localized HCC would have increased at 5.3% instead of 4.8% annually. CONCLUSIONS: LT has provided survival benefit to patients with localized HCC. However, diagnosis of many cases at advanced stages, limited availability of donor livers, and improved mortality for patients without transplants have limited the impact of transplantation on general population HCC-specific mortality rates. IMPACT: Although LT rates continue to rise, better screening and treatment modalities are needed to halt the rising HCC mortality rates in the United States.See related commentary by Zhang and Thrift, p. 435.

Visual cues of the built environment and perceived stress among a cohort of black breast cancer survivors.

We investigated relationships between independently observed, visual cues of residential environments and subsequent participant-reported stress within a population-based cohort of Black breast cancer survivors (n = 476). Greater visual cues of engagement - presence of team sports, yard decorations, outdoor seating - (compared to less engagement) was marginally associated with lower perceived stress in univariate models, but attenuated towards null with adjustment for socio-demographic, behavioral, and health-related covariates. Similarly, physical disorder and perceived stress were not associated in adjusted models. Relationships between observed built environment characteristics and perceived stress might be influenced by socioeconomic and health behavior factors, which longitudinal studies should investigate.

Trends in short-term survival from distant-stage cutaneous melanoma in the United States, 2001-2013 (CONCORD-3).

BACKGROUND: Survival from metastatic cutaneous melanoma is substantially lower than for localized disease. Treatments for metastatic melanoma have been limited, but remarkable clinical improvements have been reported in clinical trials in the last decade. We described the characteristics of US patients diagnosed with cutaneous melanoma during 2001-2013 and assessed trends in short-term survival for distant-stage disease. METHODS: Trends in 1-year net survival were estimated using the Pohar Perme estimator, controlling for background mortality with life tables of all-cause mortality rates by county of residence, single year of age, sex, and race for each year 2001-2013. We fitted a flexible parametric survival model on the log-hazard scale to estimate the effect of race on the hazard of death because of melanoma and estimated 1-year net survival by race. RESULTS: Only 4.4% of the 425 915 melanomas were diagnosed at a distant stage, cases diagnosed at a distant stage are more commonly men, older patients, and African Americans. Age-standardized, 1-year net survival for distant-stage disease was stable at approximately 43% during 2001-2010. From 2010 onward, survival improved rapidly, reaching 58.9% (95% confidence interval = 56.6% to 61.2%) for patients diagnosed in 2013. Younger patients experienced the largest improvement. Survival for distant-stage disease increased in both Blacks and Whites but was consistently lower in Blacks. CONCLUSIONS: One-year survival for distant-stage melanoma improved during 2001-2013, particularly in younger patients and those diagnosed since 2010. This improvement may be a consequence of the introduction of immune-checkpoint-inhibitors and other targeted treatments for metastatic and unresectable disease. Persistent survival inequalities exist between Blacks and Whites, suggesting differential access to treatment.

Cancer-attributable mortality among solid organ transplant recipients in the United States: 1987 through 2014.

BACKGROUND: Solid organ transplant recipients have an elevated risk of cancer. Quantifying deaths attributable to cancer can inform priorities to reduce cancer burden. METHODS: Linked transplantation and cancer registry data were used to identify incident cancers and deaths among solid organ transplant recipients in the United States (1987-2014). Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of deaths due to cancer and corresponding cancer-attributable mortality rates were estimated using Cox models. RESULTS: Among 221,962 solid organ transplant recipients, 15,012 developed cancer. Approximately 13% of deaths (PAF, 13.2%) were attributable to cancer, corresponding to a cancer-attributable mortality rate of 516 per 100,000 person-years. Lung cancer was the largest contributor to mortality (PAF, 3.1%), followed by non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL; PAF, 1.9%), colorectal cancer (PAF, 0.7%), and kidney cancer (PAF, 0.5%). Cancer-attributable mortality rates increased with age at transplantation, reaching 1229 per 100,000 person-years among recipients aged ≥65 years. NHL was the largest contributor among children (PAF, 4.1%) and lung cancer was the largest contributor among recipients aged ≥50 years (PAFs, 3.7%-4.3%). Heart recipients had the highest PAF (16.4%), but lung recipients had the highest cancer-attributable mortality rate (1241 per 100,000 person-years). Overall, mortality attributable to cancer increased steadily with longer time since transplantation, reaching 15.7% of deaths (810 per 100,000 person-years) at ≥10 years after transplantation. Comparison of cancer-attributable mortality rates with specified causes of death indicated that some deaths recorded as other causes might instead be caused by cancer or its treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer is a substantial cause of mortality among solid organ transplant recipients, with major contributions reported from lung cancer and NHL. Cancer-attributable mortality increases with age and time since transplantation, and therefore cancer deaths will become an increasing burden as recipients live longer.