Triglyceride Lowering with Pemafibrate to Reduce Cardiovascular Risk.

BACKGROUND: High triglyceride levels are associated with increased cardiovascular risk, but whether reductions in these levels would lower the incidence of cardiovascular events is uncertain. Pemafibrate, a selective peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α modulator, reduces triglyceride levels and improves other lipid levels. METHODS: In a multinational, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes, mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridemia (triglyceride level, 200 to 499 mg per deciliter), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels of 40 mg per deciliter or lower to receive pemafibrate (0.2-mg tablets twice daily) or matching placebo. Eligible patients were receiving guideline-directed lipid-lowering therapy or could not receive statin therapy without adverse effects and had low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels of 100 mg per deciliter or lower. The primary efficacy end point was a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, coronary revascularization, or death from cardiovascular causes. RESULTS: Among 10,497 patients (66.9% with previous cardiovascular disease), the median baseline fasting triglyceride level was 271 mg per deciliter, HDL cholesterol level 33 mg per deciliter, and LDL cholesterol level 78 mg per deciliter. The median follow-up was 3.4 years. As compared with placebo, the effects of pemafibrate on lipid levels at 4 months were -26.2% for triglycerides, -25.8% for very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) cholesterol, -25.6% for remnant cholesterol (cholesterol transported in triglyceride-rich lipoproteins after lipolysis and lipoprotein remodeling), -27.6% for apolipoprotein C-III, and 4.8% for apolipoprotein B. A primary end-point event occurred in 572 patients in the pemafibrate group and in 560 of those in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 1.15), with no apparent effect modification in any prespecified subgroup. The overall incidence of serious adverse events did not differ significantly between the groups, but pemafibrate was associated with a higher incidence of adverse renal events and venous thromboembolism and a lower incidence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes, mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridemia, and low HDL and LDL cholesterol levels, the incidence of cardiovascular events was not lower among those who received pemafibrate than among those who received placebo, although pemafibrate lowered triglyceride, VLDL cholesterol, remnant cholesterol, and apolipoprotein C-III levels. (Funded by the Kowa Research Institute; PROMINENT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03071692.).

Differences in Metabolomic Profiles Between Black and White Women and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease: an Observational Study of Women From Four US Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Racial differences in metabolomic profiles may reflect underlying differences in social determinants of health by self-reported race and may be related to racial disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) among women in the United States. However, the magnitude of differences in metabolomic profiles between Black and White women in the United States has not been well-described. It also remains unknown whether such differences are related to differences in CHD risk. METHODS: Plasma metabolomic profiles were analyzed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in the WHI-OS (Women's Health Initiative-Observational Study; 138 Black and 696 White women), WHI-HT trials (WHI-Hormone Therapy; 156 Black and 1138 White women), MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis; 114 Black and 219 White women), JHS (Jackson Heart Study; 1465 Black women with 107 incident CHD cases), and NHS (Nurses' Health Study; 2506 White women with 136 incident CHD cases). First, linear regression models were used to estimate associations between self-reported race and 472 metabolites in WHI-OS (discovery); findings were replicated in WHI-HT and validated in MESA. Second, we used elastic net regression to construct a racial difference metabolomic pattern (RDMP) representing differences in the metabolomic patterns between Black and White women in the WHI-OS; the RDMP was validated in the WHI-HT and MESA. Third, using conditional logistic regressions in the WHI (717 CHD cases and 719 matched controls), we examined associations of metabolites with large differences in levels by race and the RDMP with risk of CHD, and the results were replicated in Black women from the JHS and White women from the NHS. RESULTS: Of the 472 tested metabolites, levels of 259 (54.9%) metabolites, mostly lipid metabolites and amino acids, significantly differed between Black and White women in both WHI-OS and WHI-HT after adjusting for baseline characteristics, socioeconomic status, lifestyle factors, baseline health conditions, and medication use (false discovery rate <0.05); similar trends were observed in MESA. The RDMP, composed of 152 metabolites, was identified in the WHI-OS and showed significantly different distributions between Black and White women in the WHI-HT and MESA. Higher RDMP quartiles were associated with an increased risk of incident CHD (odds ratio=1.51 [0.97-2.37] for the highest quartile comparing to the lowest; Ptrend=0.02), independent of self-reported race and known CHD risk factors. In race-stratified analyses, the RDMP-CHD associations were more pronounced in White women. Similar patterns were observed in Black women from the JHS and White women from the NHS. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolomic profiles significantly and substantially differ between Black and White women and may be associated with CHD risk and racial disparities in US women.

Population median imputation was noninferior to complex approaches for imputing missing values in cardiovascular prediction models in clinical practice.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the validity and robustness of five methods for handling missing characteristics when using cardiovascular disease risk prediction models for individual patients in a real-world clinical setting. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The performance of the missing data methods was assessed using data from the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (n = 419,533) with external validation using the Scottish Care Information - diabetes database (n = 226,953). Five methods for handling missing data were compared. Two methods using submodels for each combination of available data, two imputation methods: conditional imputation and median imputation, and one alternative modeling method, called the naïve approach, based on hazard ratios and populations statistics of known risk factors only. The validity was compared using calibration plots and c-statistics. RESULTS: C-statistics were similar across methods in both development and validation data sets, that is, 0.82 (95% CI 0.82-0.83) in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry and 0.74 (95% CI 0.74-0.75) in Scottish Care Information-diabetes database. Differences were only observed after random introduction of missing data in the most important predictor variable (i.e., age). CONCLUSION: Validity and robustness of median imputation was not dissimilar to more complex methods for handling missing values, provided that the most important predictor variables, such as age, are not missing.

Adverse effects related to methotrexate polyglutamate levels: adjudicated results from the cardiovascular inflammation reduction trial.

OBJECTIVES: Methotrexate is widely used at low dosages (LD-MTX) for non-oncologic indications and is associated with a variety of adverse effects (AEs). We sought to determine whether concentrations of the active metabolite, MTX polyglutamates (MTX-PGs) 1-5, correlate with AEs. METHOD: We examined data from the LD-MTX arm of the randomized double-blind Cardiovascular Inflammation Reduction Trial (CIRT). All AEs were blindly adjudicated and monitoring laboratories were tested centrally. The MTX-PGs 1-5 were assessed in one reference laboratory using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Based on prior literature, MTX-PGs 3-5 were chosen as the exposure of interest and quartiles of MTX-PGs 3-5 were assessed for their relationship with all AEs and each pre-specified category of AE using adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Of the 2391 subjects randomized to LD-MTX, MTX-PG levels were available for 1319 subjects (median dosage 16.1 mg/week) from the 8 month visit. We followed these subjects for a median of 2.2 years [interquartile range (IQR) 1.5-2.9]. Higher MTX-PG3-5 levels were related to an increased risk of anaemia [compared with quartile 1 (Q1); hazard ratio (HR) for Q4 1.27 (95% CI 0.98, 1.65), P for trend = 0.05] and a decreased risk of thrombocytopenia [HR for Q4 0.52 (95% CI 0.32, 0.84), P for trend = 0.05]. MTX-PG3-5 levels >134 nmol/l were associated with an increased risk of liver abnormalities [HR 1.36 (95% CI 1.08, 1.72)]. CONCLUSIONS: Higher MTX- PG3-5 levels were modestly associated with LD-MTX AEs, including anaemia and liver function abnormalities, but a reduced risk of thrombocytopenia and haemorrhage. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01594333.

Testing the Effects of Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs on Vascular Inflammation in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Rationale and Design of the TARGET Trial.

Individuals with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at increased risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events relative to the general population, potentially mediated by atherosclerotic plaques that are more inflamed and rupture prone. We sought to address whether RA immunomodulators reduce vascular inflammation, thereby reducing ASCVD risk, and whether such reduction depends on the type of immunomodulator. The TARGET (Treatments Against RA and Effect on 18-Fluorodeoxyglucose [18 F-FDG] Positron Emission Tomography [PET]/Computed Tomography [CT]) trial (NCT02374021) will enroll 150 patients with RA with active disease and an inadequate response to methotrexate. Participants will be randomized to add either a tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor (etanercept or adalimumab) or sulfasalazine and hydroxychloroquine to their background methotrexate. Participants will undergo full-body 18 F-FDG-labelled PET scanning at baseline and after 6 months. Efficacy and safety evaluations will occur every 6 weeks, with therapy modified in a treat-to-target approach. The primary outcome is the comparison of change in arterial inflammation in the wall of the aorta and carotid arteries between the randomized treatment groups, specifically, the change in the mean of the maximum target-to-background ratio of arterial 18 F-FDG uptake in the most diseased segment of either the aorta and carotid arteries. A secondary analysis will compare the effects of achieving low disease activity or remission with those of moderate to high disease activity on vascular inflammation. The TARGET trial will test, for the first time, whether RA treatments reduce arterial inflammation and whether such reduction differs according to treatment strategy with either TNF inhibitors or a combination of nonbiologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs.

Adverse Effects of Low-Dose Methotrexate in a Randomized Double-Blind Placebo-Controlled Trial: Adjudicated Hematologic and Skin Cancer Outcomes in the Cardiovascular Inflammation Reduction Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Low-dose methotrexate (LD-MTX), a cornerstone in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, is associated with a moderately increased risk of anemia, leukopenia, and skin cancers, but the risks of myelosuppression and malignancy during LD-MTX use remain incompletely described. We examined the risks of cytopenias and skin cancers among patients taking LD-MTX versus placebo in a large randomized controlled trial (RCT). METHODS: We prespecified secondary analyses of a double-blind, placebo-controlled RCT that included adults with known cardiovascular disease and diabetes or metabolic syndrome in the United States and Canada. Subjects were randomly allocated to LD-MTX (20 mg/week maximum) or placebo. All subjects received folic acid (1 mg daily for 6days/week). We assessed the frequency of blindly adjudicated hematologic and malignant adverse events (AEs). RESULTS: A total of 2391 subjects were randomized to LD-MTX (mean dosage 14.9 mg/week), and 2395 were randomized to placebo. During follow-up, in the LD-MTX arm, simultaneous two-line cytopenias (n = 92 [3.9%]) or pancytopenia (n = 13 [0.54%]) were infrequent. Pancytopenia developed as soon as 4 months and as late as 3.5 years after beginning LD-MTX, though the latter subject had been recently diagnosed with multiple myeloma. Overall skin cancer risk was increased in users of LD-MTX compared with users of placebo, which driven largely by a statistically significant increased risk of squamous cell skin cancer (hazard ratio [HR] 3.31; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.63-6.71). Melanoma was increased in LD-MTX, but this was not statistically significant (HR 2.33; 95% CI 0.60-9.01). CONCLUSIONS: Among subjects using LD-MTX, simultaneous two-line cytopenias and pancytopenia were uncommon. We found more cases of skin cancer, particularly squamous cell carcinomas, in the LD-MTX arm than the placebo arm.

Metabolomic Effects of Hormone Therapy and Associations With Coronary Heart Disease Among Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: In the WHI-HT trials (Women's Health Initiative Hormone Therapy), treatment with oral conjugated equine estrogens and medroxyprogesterone acetate (CEE+MPA) resulted in increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), whereas oral conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) did not. METHODS: Four hundred eighty-one metabolites were measured at baseline and at 1-year in 503 and 431 participants in the WHI CEE and CEE+MPA trials, respectively. The effects of randomized HT on the metabolite profiles at 1-year was evaluated in linear models adjusting for baseline metabolite levels, age, body mass index, race, incident CHD, prevalent hypertension, and diabetes. Metabolites with discordant effects by HT type were evaluated for association with incident CHD in 944 participants (472 CHD cases) in the WHI-OS (Women's Health Initiative Observational Study), with replication in an independent cohort of 980 men and women at high risk for cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: HT effects on the metabolome were profound; 62% of metabolites significantly changed with randomized CEE and 52% with CEE+MPA (false discovery rate-adjusted P value<0.05) in multivariable models. Concerted increases in abundance were seen within various metabolite classes including triacylglycerols, phosphatidylethanolamines, and phosphatidylcholines; decreases in abundance was observed for acylcarnitines, lysophosphatidylcholines, quaternary amines, and cholesteryl/cholesteryl esters. Twelve metabolites had discordant effects by HT type and were associated with incident CHD in the WHI-OS; a metabolite score estimated in a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was associated with CHD risk with an odds ratio of 1.47 per SD increase (95% CI, 1.27-1.70, P<10-6). All twelve metabolites were altered in the CHD protective direction by CEE treatment. One metabolite (lysine) was significantly altered in the direction of increased CHD risk by CEE+MPA; the remaining 11 metabolites were not significantly changed by CEE+MPA. The CHD associations of a subset of 4 metabolites including C58:11 triacylglycerol, C54:9 triacylglycerol, C36:1 phosphatidylcholine and sucrose replicated in an independent dataset of 980 participants in the PREDIMED trial (Prevención con Dieta Mediterránea). CONCLUSIONS: Randomized treatment with oral HT resulted in large metabolome shifts that generally favored CEE alone over CEE+MPA in term of CHD risk. Discordant metabolite effects between HT regimens may partially mediate the differences in CHD risk between the 2 WHI-HT trials.

Pulmonary Adverse Events in Patients Receiving Low-Dose Methotrexate in the Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Cardiovascular Inflammation Reduction Trial.

OBJECTIVE: We previously reported that low-dose methotrexate (MTX) was associated with an increased risk of pulmonary adverse events (AEs) in a large randomized, placebo-controlled trial. Herein, we report details on the predictors and severity of pulmonary AEs. METHODS: We conducted a prespecified analysis of pulmonary AEs in the Cardiovascular Inflammation Reduction Trial. Adults with known cardiovascular disease and diabetes/metabolic syndrome were randomly allocated to receive low-dose MTX (target dose 15-20 mg/week) or placebo after a 6-8-week open-label run-in phase in which all patients received low-dose MTX. Individuals with systemic inflammatory diseases were excluded. Pulmonary AEs were adjudicated in a blinded manner. We described severe pulmonary AEs and examined associations of baseline characteristics with pulmonary AEs in patients receiving low-dose MTX. RESULTS: A total of 2,391 subjects were randomized to receive low-dose MTX and 2,395 to receive placebo. There were 13 severe pulmonary AEs (0.5%) and 7 cases of possible pneumonitis (0.3%) in the low-dose MTX group, compared to 8 (0.3%) and 1 (<0.1%), respectively, in the placebo group. Among those randomized to receive low-dose MTX, risk factors for any pulmonary AE included female sex (hazard ratio [HR] 1.69 versus male sex [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.16-2.45]), white race (HR 2.35 versus other race [95% CI 1.03-5.36]), and insulin use (HR 1.60 versus non-use [95% CI 1.11-2.30]). The only risk factor for severe pulmonary AEs was older age at baseline (HR 1.09 per year increase [95% CI 1.02-1.16]). CONCLUSION: In this large placebo-controlled trial, pulmonary AEs, including possible pneumonitis, were uncommon but were more likely to occur in those randomized to receive low-dose MTX. White race, older age, male sex, and insulin use were associated with an increased risk of pulmonary AEs in those receiving low-dose MTX.

External Validation of a Risk Score for Major Toxicity Among Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug Users: Real-World Application.

OBJECTIVE: We previously derived and validated a risk score for major nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) toxicity over 1 year among NSAID users in a randomized controlled trial. This work was extended to examine the risk score's performance in an external population using real-world data. METHODS: Patients enrolled in the Corrona Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Registry were included if they initiated use of an NSAID. We defined the original risk factors previously identified in the risk score for major NSAID toxicity: age; male sex; history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and diabetes; tobacco use; statin use; elevated serum creatinine and hematocrit values; and RA. Additionally, we defined the occurrence of major toxicity, including major adverse cardiovascular events, acute kidney injury, significant gastrointestinal events, and mortality. The original risk factors were assessed in Cox regression examining discrimination and calibration. Low (less than 1%), intermediate (1%-4%), and high (more than 4%) risk categories for 1-year risk were applied to the population. RESULTS: A total of 5231 patients from Corrona who had a new NSAID exposure period were included. The original risk score model showed good discrimination (C-index 0.70). Not all of the original variables were statistically significant in real-world data. Using the original risk score weights, 1363 (26.1%) patients had predicted risk of less than 1%, 3571 (68.3%) had predicted risk of 1% to 4%, and 297 (5.7%) had predicted risk of more than 4%. CONCLUSION: The original NSAID major toxicity risk score demonstrated good model fit characteristics in this external real-world cohort. These results suggest that such a risk score is valid in typical practice and could be considered for clinical care.

Adverse Effects of Low-Dose Methotrexate: A Randomized Trial.

Background: Low-dose methotrexate (LD-MTX) is the most commonly used drug for systemic rheumatic diseases worldwide and is the recommended first-line agent for rheumatoid arthritis. Despite extensive clinical use for more than 30 years, few data on adverse event (AE) rates derive from randomized, placebo-controlled trials, where both causality and magnitude of risk can be inferred. Objective: To investigate AE rates, risk, and risk differences comparing LD-MTX versus placebo. Design: Prespecified secondary analyses of a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01594333). Setting: North America. Participants: Adults with known cardiovascular disease and diabetes or metabolic syndrome. Intervention: Random allocation to LD-MTX (≤20 mg/wk) or placebo. All participants received folic acid, 1 mg/d, 6 days per week. Measurements: Risks for specific AEs of interest, as well as for all AEs, were compared across treatment groups after blinded adjudication. Results: After an active run-in period, 6158 patients were enrolled and 4786 randomly assigned to a group; median follow-up was 23 months and median dosage 15 mg/wk. Among the randomly assigned participants, 81.2% were male, median age was 65.7 years, and median body mass index was 31.5 kg/m2. Of 2391 participants assigned to LD-MTX, 2080 (87.0%) had an AE of interest, compared with 1951 of 2395 (81.5%) assigned to placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 1.17 [95% CI, 1.10 to 1.25]). The relative hazards of gastrointestinal (HR, 1.91 [CI, 1.75 to 2.10]), pulmonary (HR, 1.52 [CI, 1.16 to 1.98]), infectious (HR, 1.15 [CI, 1.01 to 1.30]), and hematologic (HR, 1.15 [CI, 1.07 to 1.23]) AEs were elevated for LD-MTX versus placebo. With the exception of increased risk for skin cancer (HR, 2.05 [CI, 1.28 to 3.28]), the treatment groups did not differ in risk for other cancer or mucocutaneous, neuropsychiatric, or musculoskeletal AEs. Renal AEs were reduced in the LD-MTX group (HR, 0.85 [CI, 0.78 to 0.93]). Limitation: The trial was done in patients without rheumatic disease who tolerated LD-MTX during an active run-in period. Conclusion: Use of LD-MTX was associated with small to moderate elevations in risks for skin cancer and gastrointestinal, infectious, pulmonary, and hematologic AEs, whereas renal AEs were decreased. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health.

Metabolomic profiles associated with all-cause mortality in the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Metabolomics profiling has shown promise in elucidating the biological pathways underpinning mortality, but there are limited data in female populations. METHODS: We applied a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry metabolomics platform to EDTA-plasma to measure 470 metabolites at baseline in a discovery set of 943 postmenopausal women (including 417 incident deaths, median time to death of 10.6 years) with validation in an independent set of 1355 postmenopausal women (including 685 deaths, median time to death of 9.1 years) in the Women's Health Initiative. RESULTS: Eight new metabolites were discovered to be associated with all-cause mortality. Findings included protective effects of increased levels of three amino acids (asparagine, homoarginine and tryptophan) and docosatrienoic acid; and detrimental effects of increased levels of C4-OH-carnitine, hexadecanedioate and two purine/pyrimidines (N2, N2-dimethylguanosine and N4-acetylcytidine). In addition, a set of nine previously published metabolite associations were replicated. A metabolite score comprising 17 metabolites was associated with mortality (P < 10-8) after adjustment for risk factors, with a hazard ratio of 1.95 (95% CI: 1.46-2.62) for women in the highest quartile compared with the lowest quartile of metabolite score. The score was robust among younger women and older women, for both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality, and associated with both early deaths (within the first 10 years of baseline) and later deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our study fills a gap in the literature by identifying eight novel metabolite associations with all-cause mortality in women, using a robust study design involving independent discovery and validation datasets.

Estimating the receiver operating characteristic curve in matched case control studies.

The matched case-control design is frequently used in the study of complex disorders and can result in significant gains in efficiency, especially in the context of measuring biomarkers; however, risk prediction in this setting is not straightforward. We propose an inverse-probability weighting approach to estimate the predictive ability associated with a set of covariates. In particular, we propose an algorithm for estimating the summary index, area under the curve corresponding to the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve associated with a set of pre-defined covariates for predicting a binary outcome. By combining data from the parent cohort with that generated in a matched case control study, we describe methods for estimation of the population parameters of interest and the corresponding area under the curve. We evaluate the bias associated with the proposed methods in simulations by considering a range of parameter settings. We illustrate the methods in two data applications: (1) a prospective cohort study of cardiovascular disease in women, the Women's Health Study, and (2) a matched case-control study nested within the Nurses' Health Study aimed at risk prediction of invasive breast cancer.

Low-Dose Methotrexate for the Prevention of Atherosclerotic Events.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is causally related to atherothrombosis. Treatment with canakinumab, a monoclonal antibody that inhibits inflammation by neutralizing interleukin-1ß, resulted in a lower rate of cardiovascular events than placebo in a previous randomized trial. We sought to determine whether an alternative approach to inflammation inhibition with low-dose methotrexate might provide similar benefit. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of low-dose methotrexate (at a target dose of 15 to 20 mg weekly) or matching placebo in 4786 patients with previous myocardial infarction or multivessel coronary disease who additionally had either type 2 diabetes or the metabolic syndrome. All participants received 1 mg of folate daily. The primary end point at the onset of the trial was a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. Near the conclusion of the trial, but before unblinding, hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization was added to the primary end point. RESULTS: The trial was stopped after a median follow-up of 2.3 years. Methotrexate did not result in lower interleukin-1ß, interleukin-6, or C-reactive protein levels than placebo. The final primary end point occurred in 201 patients in the methotrexate group and in 207 in the placebo group (incidence rate, 4.13 vs. 4.31 per 100 person-years; hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79 to 1.16). The original primary end point occurred in 170 patients in the methotrexate group and in 167 in the placebo group (incidence rate, 3.46 vs. 3.43 per 100 person-years; hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.25). Methotrexate was associated with elevations in liver-enzyme levels, reductions in leukocyte counts and hematocrit levels, and a higher incidence of non-basal-cell skin cancers than placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stable atherosclerosis, low-dose methotrexate did not reduce levels of interleukin-1ß, interleukin-6, or C-reactive protein and did not result in fewer cardiovascular events than placebo. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; CIRT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01594333.).

Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Factors for Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Type in Women.

Background Cardiovascular risk factors have differential effects on various manifestations of cardiovascular disease, but to date direct formal comparisons are scarce, have been conducted primarily in men, and include only traditional risk factors. Methods and Results Using data from the multi-ethnic Women's Health Initiative Observational Study, we used a case-cohort design to compare 1731 women with incident cardiovascular disease during follow-up to a cohort of 1914 women. The direction of effect of all 24 risk factors (including various apolipoproteins, hemoglobin A1c, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, and tissue plasminogen activator antigen) was concordant for coronary heart disease (CHD, defined as myocardial infarction and CHD death) and ischemic stroke; however, associations were generally stronger with CHD. Significant differences for multiple risk factors, including blood pressure, lipid levels, and measures of inflammation, were observed when comparing the effects on hemorrhagic stroke with those on ischemic outcomes. For instance, multivariable adjusted hazard ratios per standard deviation increase in non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.28) for CHD, 0.97 (0.88-1.07) for ischemic stroke, and 0.76 (0.63-0.91) for hemorrhagic stroke ( P<0.05 for equal association). Model discrimination was better for models predicting CHD or ischemic stroke than for models predicting hemorrhagic stroke or a combined end point. Conclusions Cardiovascular risk factors have largely similar effects on incidence of CHD and ischemic stroke in women, although the magnitude of association varies. Determinants of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke substantially differ, underscoring their distinct biology. Cardiovascular disease risk may be more accurately reflected when combined cardiovascular disease or cerebrovascular outcomes are broken down into different first manifestations, or when restricted to ischemic outcomes.

Rationale and design of the Pemafibrate to Reduce Cardiovascular Outcomes by Reducing Triglycerides in Patients with Diabetes (PROMINENT) study.

Observational, genetic, and experimental data indicate that triglyceride rich lipoproteins (TRLs) likely participate causally in atherothrombosis. Yet, robust clinical trial evidence that triglyceride (TG) lowering therapy reduces cardiovascular events remains elusive. The selective peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha modulator (SPPARM-α), pemafibrate, will be used to target residual cardiovascular risk remaining after treatment to reduce low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in individuals with the dyslipidemia of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2). The PROMINENT study will randomly allocate approximately 10,000 participants with T2D, mild-to-moderate hypertriglyceridemia (TG: 200-499 mg/dl; 2.26-5.64 mmol/l) and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (HDL-C: ≤40 mg/dl; 1.03 mmol/l) to either pemafibrate (0.2 mg twice daily) or matching placebo with an average expected follow-up period of 3.75 years (total treatment phase 5 years; 24 countries). At study entry, participants must be receiving either moderate-to-high intensity statin therapy or meet specified LDL-C criteria. The study population will be one-third primary and two-thirds secondary prevention (established cardiovascular disease). The primary endpoint is a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal ischemic stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina requiring urgent coronary revascularization, and cardiovascular death. This event-driven study will complete when 1092 adjudicated primary endpoints have accrued with at least 200 occurring in women. Statistical power is at least 90% to detect an 18% reduction in the primary endpoint. Pre-specified secondary and tertiary endpoints include all-cause mortality, hospitalization for heart failure, new or worsening peripheral artery disease, new or worsening diabetic retinopathy and nephropathy, and change in biomarkers including select lipid and non-lipid biomarkers, inflammatory and glycemic parameters.

Evaluation of the Pooled Cohort Risk Equations for Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in a Multiethnic Cohort From the Women's Health Initiative.

Importance: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) kills approximately 1 in every 3 US women. Current cholesterol, hypertension, and aspirin guidelines recommend calculating 10-year risk of ASCVD using the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE). However, numerous studies have reported apparent overestimation of risk with the PCE, and reasons for overestimation are unclear. Objective: We evaluated the predictive accuracy of the PCE in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI), a multiethnic cohort of contemporary US postmenopausal women. We evaluated the effects of time-varying treatments such as aspirin and statins, and ascertainment of additional ASCVD events by linkage with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) claims. Design, Setting, and Participants: The WHI recruited the largest number of US women (n = 161 808) with the racial/ethnic, geographic, and age diversity of the general population (1993-1998). For this study, we included women aged 50 to 79 (n = 19 995) participating in the WHI with data on the risk equation variables at baseline and who met the guideline inclusion and exclusion criteria. Median follow-up was 10 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: For this study, ASCVD was defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. Results: Among the 19 995 women (mean [SD] age, 64 [7.3] years; 8305 [41.5%] white, 7688 [38.5%] black, 3491 [17.5%] Hispanic, 103 [0.5%] American Indian, 321 [1.6%] Asian/Pacific Islander, and 87 [0.4%] other/unknown), a total of 1236 ASCVD events occurred in 10 years and were adjudicated through medical record review by WHI investigators. The WHI-adjudicated observed risks were lower than predicted. The observed (predicted) risks for baseline 10-year risk categories less than 5%, 5% to less than 7.5%, 7.5% to less than 10%, and 10% or more were 1.7 (2.8), 4.4 (6.2), 5.3 (8.7), and 12.4 (18.2), respectively. Small changes were noted after adjusting for time-dependent changes in statin and aspirin use. Among women 65 years or older enrolled in Medicare, WHI-adjudicated risks were also lower than predicted, but observed (predicted) risks became aligned after including events ascertained by linkage with CMS for additional surveillance for events: 3.8 (4.3), 7.1 (6.4), 8.3 (8.7), and 18.9 (18.7), respectively. Similar results were seen across ethnic/racial groups. Overall, the equations discriminated risk well (C statistic, 0.726; 95% CI, 0.714-0.738). Conclusions and Relevance: Without including surveillance for ASCVD events using CMS, observed risks in the WHI were lower than predicted by PCE as noted in several other US cohorts, but risks were better aligned after including CMS events. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00000611.

Metabolic Predictors of Incident Coronary Heart Disease in Women.

BACKGROUND: Although metabolomic profiling offers promise for the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD), and metabolic risk factors are more strongly associated with CHD in women than men, limited data are available for women. METHODS: We applied a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry metabolomics platform to measure 371 metabolites in a discovery set of postmenopausal women (472 incident CHD cases, 472 controls) with validation in an independent set of postmenopausal women (312 incident CHD cases, 315 controls). RESULTS: Eight metabolites, primarily oxidized lipids, were significantly dysregulated in cases after the adjustment for matching and CHD risk factors in both the discovery and validation data sets. One oxidized phospholipid, C34:2 hydroxy-phosphatidylcholine, remained associated with CHD after further adjustment for other validated metabolites. Subjects with C34:2 hydroxy-phosphatidylcholine levels in the highest quartile had a 4.7-fold increase in CHD odds in comparison with the lowest quartile; C34:2 hydroxy-phosphatidylcholine also significantly improved the area under the curve (P<0.01) for CHD. The C34:2 hydroxy-phosphatidylcholine findings were replicated in a third replication data set of 980 men and women (230 cardiovascular events) with a stronger association observed in women. CONCLUSIONS: These data replicate known metabolite predictors, identify novel markers, and support the relationship between lipid oxidation and subsequent CHD.

Reclassification calibration test for censored survival data: performance and comparison to goodness-of-fit criteria.

BACKGROUND: The risk reclassification table assesses clinical performance of a biomarker in terms of movements across relevant risk categories. The Reclassification-Calibration (RC) statistic has been developed for binary outcomes, but its performance for survival data with moderate to high censoring rates has not been evaluated. METHODS: We develop an RC statistic for survival data with higher censoring rates using the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino approach (RC-GND). We examine its performance characteristics and compare its performance and utility to the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test under various assumptions about the censoring rate and the shape of the baseline hazard. RESULTS: The RC-GND test was robust to high (up to 50%) censoring rates and did not exceed the targeted 5% Type I error in a variety of simulated scenarios. It achieved 80% power to detect better calibration with respect to clinical categories when an important predictor with a hazard ratio of at least 1.7 to 2.2 was added to the model, while the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit (gof) test had power of 5% in this scenario. CONCLUSIONS: The RC-GND test should be used to test the improvement in calibration with respect to clinically-relevant risk strata. When an important predictor is omitted, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test is usually not significant, while the RC-GND test is sensitive to such an omission.

Clinical risk reclassification at 10 years.

Three papers in this issue focus on the role of calibration in model fit statistics, including the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). This commentary reviews the development of such reclassification statistics along with more recent advances in our understanding of these measures. We show how the two-category NRI and the IDI are affected by changes in the event rate in theory and in an applied example. We also describe the role of calibration and how it may be assessed. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the event rate NRI for clinical use. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.