Natural capital approaches for the optimal design of policies for nature recovery.

By embedding a spatially explicit ecosystem services modelling tool within a policy simulator we examine the insights that natural capital analysis can bring to the design of policies for nature recovery. Our study is illustrated through a case example of policies incentivising the establishment of new natural habitat in England. We find that a policy mirroring the current practice of offering payments per hectare of habitat creation fails to break even, delivering less value in improved flows of ecosystem services than public money spent and only 26% of that which is theoretically achievable. Using optimization methods, we discover that progressively more efficient outcomes are delivered by policies that optimally price activities (34%), quantities of environmental change (55%) and ecosystem service value flows (81%). Further, we show that additionally attaining targets for unmonetized ecosystem services (in our case, biodiversity) demands trade-offs in delivery of monetized services. For some policy instruments it is not even possible to achieve the targets. Finally, we establish that extending policy instruments to offer payments for unmonetized services delivers target-achieving and value-maximizing policy designs. Our findings reveal that policy design is of first-order importance in determining the efficiency and efficacy of programmes pursuing nature recovery. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

Potential decline in the distribution and food provisioning services of the mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) in southern Africa.

The mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) is an edible insect distributed across southern Africa. As a culturally important source of food, the mopane worm provides nutrition, livelihoods and improves wellbeing for rural communities across its range. However, this is strong evidence that insect populations are declining worldwide, and climate change is likely to cause many insect species to shift in their distributions. For these reasons, we aimed to model how the ecosystem service benefits of the mopane worm are likely to change in the coming decades. We modelled the distribution of the mopane worm under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Moreover, given that the mopane worm shows strong interactions with other species, particularly trees, we incorporated biotic interactions in our models using a Bayesian network. Our models project significant contraction across the species' range, with up to 70% decline in habitat by the 2080s. Botswana and Zimbabwe are predicted to be the most severely impacted countries, with almost all habitat in Botswana and Zimbabwe modelled to be lost by the 2080s. Decline of mopane worm habitat would likely have negative implications for the health of people in rural communities due to loss of an important source of protein as well as household income provided by their harvest. Biogeographic shifts therefore have potential to exacerbate food insecurity, socio-economic inequalities, and gender imbalance (women are the main harvesters), with cascading effects that most negatively impact poor rural communities dependent on natural resources.

Limited evidence for quantitative contribution of rare and endangered species to agricultural production.

Biodiversity underpins ecosystem functions that provide benefits to people, yet the role of rare and endangered species (RES) in supporting ecosystem services is unclear. Thus, it remains controversial whether arguments for conservation that focus on ecosystem services align with the protection of RES. We designed a systematic review protocol to critically assess the evidence for quantitative contributions of RES to terrestrial agricultural production, which is a key driver of biodiversity change and, simultaneously, could suffer from the loss of ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Our review search criteria required that studies: 1) provide information on RES, 2) focus on an ecosystem service relevant for agriculture; and 3) include a quantitative measure of agricultural production. Surprisingly, we found only four studies that fulfilled these criteria, which was insufficient to perform a meta-analysis of results. Thus, we highlight here the gap in quantitative research, discuss the implications of this knowledge gap for the conservation of RES, and suggest future research directions. We conclude that further quantitative research is urgently needed to better inform conservation and agricultural policies, including research that focuses specifically on RES, incorporates more ecosystem services, and covers a wider range of climatic and socioeconomic contexts.

Climate change, land cover change, and overharvesting threaten a widely used medicinal plant in South Africa.

Medicinal plants contribute substantially to the well-being of people in large parts of the world, providing traditional medicine and supporting livelihoods from trading plant parts, which is especially significant for women in low-income communities. However, the availability of wild medicinal plants is increasingly threatened; for example, the Natal Lily (Clivia miniata), which is one of the most widely traded plants in informal medicine markets in South Africa, lost over 40% of individuals over the last 90 years. Understanding the species' response to individual and multiple pressures is essential for prioritizing and planning conservation actions. To gain this understanding, we simulated the future range and abundance of C. miniata by coupling Species Distribution Models with a metapopulation model (RAMAS-GIS). We contrasted scenarios of climate change (RCP2.6 vs. RCP8.5), land cover change (intensification vs. expansion), and harvesting (only juveniles vs. all life-stages). All our scenarios pointed to continuing declines in suitable habitat and abundance by the 2050s. When acting independently, climate change, land cover change, and harvesting each reduced the projected abundance substantially, with land cover change causing the most pronounced declines. Harvesting individuals from all life stages affected the projected metapopulation size more negatively than extracting only juveniles. When the three pressures acted together, declines of suitable habitat and abundance accelerated but uncertainties were too large to identify whether pressures acted synergistically, additively, or antagonistically. Our results suggest that conservation should prioritize the protection of suitable habitat and ensure sustainable harvesting to support a viable metapopulation under realistic levels of climate change. Inadequate management of C. miniata populations in the wild will likely have negative consequences for the well-being of people relying on this ecosystem service, and we expect there may be comparable consequences relating to other medicinal plants in different parts of the world.

Evidence for ecological processes driving speciation among endemic lizards of Madagascar.

Although genetic patterns produced by population isolation during speciation are well documented, the biogeographic and ecological processes that trigger speciation remain poorly understood. Alternative hypotheses for the biogeography and ecology of speciation include geographic isolation combined with niche conservation (soft allopatry) or parapatric distribution on an environmental gradient with niche divergence (ecological speciation). Here, we use species' distributions, environmental data, and two null models (the Random Translation and Rotation and the Background Similarity Test) to test these alternative hypotheses among 28 sister pairs of microendemic lizards in Madagascar. Our results demonstrate strong bimodal peaks along a niche divergence-conservation spectrum, with at least 25 out of 28 sister pairs exhibiting either niche conservation or divergence, and the remaining pairs showing weak ecological signals. Yet despite these significant results, we do not find strong associations of niche conservation with allopatric distributions or niche divergence with parapatric distributions. Our findings thus provide strong evidence of a role for ecological processes driving speciation, rather than the classic expectation of speciation through geographic isolation, but demonstrate that the link between ecological speciation and parapatry is complex and requires further analysis of a broader taxonomic sample to fully resolve.

Potential for positive biodiversity outcomes under diet-driven land use change in Great Britain.

Background: A shift toward human diets that include more fruit and vegetables, and less meat is a potential pathway to improve public health and reduce food system-related greenhouse gas emissions. Associated changes in land use could include conversion of grazing land into horticulture, which makes more efficient use of land per unit of dietary energy and frees-up land for other uses. Methods: Here we use Great Britain as a case study to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity from converting grazing land to a mixture of horticulture and natural land covers by fitting species distribution models for over 800 species, including pollinating insects and species of conservation priority. Results: Across several land use scenarios that consider the current ratio of domestic fruit and vegetable production to imports, our statistical models suggest a potential for gains to biodiversity, including a tendency for more species to gain habitable area than to lose habitable area. Moreover, the models suggest that climate change impacts on biodiversity could be mitigated to a degree by land use changes associated with dietary shifts. Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that options exist for changing agricultural land uses in a way that can generate win-win-win outcomes for biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and public health.

Impacts of detritivore diversity loss on instream decomposition are greatest in the tropics.

The relationship between detritivore diversity and decomposition can provide information on how biogeochemical cycles are affected by ongoing rates of extinction, but such evidence has come mostly from local studies and microcosm experiments. We conducted a globally distributed experiment (38 streams across 23 countries in 6 continents) using standardised methods to test the hypothesis that detritivore diversity enhances litter decomposition in streams, to establish the role of other characteristics of detritivore assemblages (abundance, biomass and body size), and to determine how patterns vary across realms, biomes and climates. We observed a positive relationship between diversity and decomposition, strongest in tropical areas, and a key role of abundance and biomass at higher latitudes. Our results suggest that litter decomposition might be altered by detritivore extinctions, particularly in tropical areas, where detritivore diversity is already relatively low and some environmental stressors particularly prevalent.

Association of Sports Participation With Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The association between participating in sport and osteoarthritis is not fully understood. PURPOSE: To investigate the association between osteoarthritis and participating in sports not listed in previous reviews: American football, archery, baseball, bobsleigh, curling, handball, ice hockey, shooting, skeleton, speed skating, and wrestling. STUDY DESIGN: Systematic review; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: We searched 4 electronic databases and hand searched recent/in-press editions of relevant journals. The criteria for study selection were case-control studies, cohort studies, nested case-control studies, and randomized trials with a control group that included adults to examine the effect of exposure to any of the included sports on the development of osteoarthritis. RESULTS: The search returned 6197 articles after deduplication. Nine studies were included in the final review, covering hip, knee, and ankle osteoarthritis. There were no studies covering archery, baseball, skeleton, speed skating, or curling. The 6 sports included in the review were analyzed as a collective; the results of the meta-analysis indicated that participation in the sports analyzed was associated with an increased risk of developing osteoarthritis of the hip (relative risk [RR] = 1.67 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15-2.41]; P = .04), knee (RR = 1.60 [95% CI, 1.23-2.08]; P < .001), and ankle (RR = 7.08 [95% CI, 1.24-40.51]; P = .03) as compared with controls. Meta-analysis suggested a significantly increased likelihood of developing hip osteoarthritis through participating in wrestling (RR = 1.78 [95% CI, 1.20-2.64]; P = .004) and ice hockey (RR = 1.70 [95% CI, 1.27-2.29]; P < .001), while there was no significant difference through participating in handball (RR = 2.50 [95% CI, 0.85-7.36]; P = .10). Likelihood of developing knee osteoarthritis was significantly increased in wrestling (RR = 2.22 [95% CI, 1.59-3.11]) and ice hockey (RR = 1.52 [95% CI, 1.18-1.96]; both P < .002). According to the meta-analysis, shooting did not have a significant effect on the RR of knee osteoarthritis as compared with other sports (RR = 0.43 [95% CI, 0.06-2.99]; P = .39). CONCLUSION: The likelihood of developing hip and knee osteoarthritis was increased for ice hockey and wrestling athletes, and the risk of developing hip osteoarthritis was increased for handball athletes. The study also found that participation in the sports examined, as a collective, resulted in an increased risk of developing hip, knee, and ankle osteoarthritis.

Latitude dictates plant diversity effects on instream decomposition.

Running waters contribute substantially to global carbon fluxes through decomposition of terrestrial plant litter by aquatic microorganisms and detritivores. Diversity of this litter may influence instream decomposition globally in ways that are not yet understood. We investigated latitudinal differences in decomposition of litter mixtures of low and high functional diversity in 40 streams on 6 continents and spanning 113° of latitude. Despite important variability in our dataset, we found latitudinal differences in the effect of litter functional diversity on decomposition, which we explained as evolutionary adaptations of litter-consuming detritivores to resource availability. Specifically, a balanced diet effect appears to operate at lower latitudes versus a resource concentration effect at higher latitudes. The latitudinal pattern indicates that loss of plant functional diversity will have different consequences on carbon fluxes across the globe, with greater repercussions likely at low latitudes.

Fresh waters and estuaries of the Great Barrier Reef catchment: Effects and management of anthropogenic disturbance on biodiversity, ecology and connectivity.

We review the literature on the ecology, connectivity, human impacts and management of freshwater and estuarine systems in the Great Barrier Reef catchment (424,000 km2), on the Australian east coast. The catchment has high biodiversity, with substantial endemicity (e.g., lungfish). Freshwater and estuarine ecosystems are closely linked to the land and are affected by human disturbance, including climate change, flow management, land clearing, habitat damage, weed invasion, and excessive sediments, nutrients and pesticides. They require holistic integrated management of impacts, interactions, and land-sea linkages. This requirement is additional to land management aimed at reducing pollutant delivery to reef waters. Despite advances in research and management over recent decades, there are substantial deficiencies that need addressing, including understanding of physical and biological processes and impacts in ground waters, large rivers and estuaries; ecological effects of pesticides; management and mitigation for invasive species and climate change; and explicit protection of non-marine waters.

Do constrained immigration rates and high ß diversity explain contrasting productivity-diversity patterns measured at different scales?

The relationship between productivity and diversity is controversial because of disparity between unimodal and monotonic patterns, especially when occurring simultaneously at different scales. We used stream-side artificial channels to investigate how the availability of a major resource (leaf litter) affected stream invertebrate abundance and diversity at leaf-pack and whole-channel scales. At the larger scale, invertebrate diversity increased monotonically with increasing litter resource density, whereas at the smaller scale the relationship was hump-shaped, in keeping with reports in the literature. This divergence at higher resource levels suggests that multiple mechanisms may be operating. Our results indicate that consistently high species turnover (ß diversity) caused the monotonic pattern because of a species-area or "sampling effect" in which new species accumulate with increasing number of samples. The hump-shaped pattern was due to constrained immigration because of a "dilution effect" in which a limited number of immigrants is spread out among the increasing number of available patches. We propose that the relationship between productivity or resource availability and α diversity is generally hump-shaped and the scale-dependent contrast in the relationship only arises where the species pool is large and ß diversity is high. Differences in ß diversity may, therefore, explain some of the contrasting patterns in the productivity-diversity relationship previously reported.We suggest that continuing immigration by rare taxa is important in sustaining species diversity when productivity is high. The hump-shaped pattern has implications for the impact of anthropogenic ecosystem enrichment on species diversity.

Nasal Administration and Plasma Pharmacokinetics of Parathyroid Hormone Peptide PTH 1-34 for the Treatment of Osteoporosis.

Nasal delivery of large peptides such as parathyroid 1-34 (PTH 1-34) can benefit from a permeation enhancer to promote absorption across the nasal mucosa into the bloodstream. Previously, we have published an encouraging bioavailability (78%), relative to subcutaneous injection in a small animal preclinical model, for a liquid nasal spray formulation containing the permeation enhancer polyethylene glycol (15)-hydroxystearate (Solutol® HS15). We report here the plasma pharmacokinetics of PTH 1-34 in healthy human volunteers receiving the liquid nasal spray formulation containing Solutol® HS15. For comparison, data for a commercially manufactured teriparatide formulation delivered via subcutaneous injection pen are also presented. Tc-99m-DTPA gamma scintigraphy monitored the deposition of the nasal spray in the nasal cavity and clearance via the inferior meatus and nasopharynx. The 50% clearance time was 17.8 min (minimum 10.9, maximum 74.3 min). For PTH 1-34, mean plasma Cmax of 5 pg/mL and 253 pg/mL were obtained for the nasal spray and subcutaneous injection respectively; relative bioavailability of the nasal spray was ≤1%. Subsequently, we investigated the pharmacokinetics of the liquid nasal spray formulation as well as a dry powder nasal formulation also containing Solutol® HS15 in a crossover study in an established ovine model. In this preclinical model, the relative bioavailability of liquid and powder nasal formulations was 1.4% and 1.0% respectively. The absolute bioavailability of subcutaneously administered PTH 1-34 (mean 77%, range 55-108%) in sheep was in agreement with published human data for teriparatide (up to 95%). These findings have important implications in the search for alternative routes of administration of peptides for the treatment of osteoporosis, and in terms of improving translation from animal models to humans.

Research priorities for maintaining biodiversity's contributions to people in Latin America.

Maintaining biodiversity is crucial for ensuring human well-being. The authors participated in a workshop held in Palenque, Mexico, in August 2018, that brought together 30 mostly early-career scientists working in different disciplines (natural, social and economic sciences) with the aim of identifying research priorities for studying the contributions of biodiversity to people and how these contributions might be impacted by environmental change. Five main groups of questions emerged: (1) Enhancing the quantity, quality, and availability of biodiversity data; (2) Integrating different knowledge systems; (3) Improved methods for integrating diverse data; (4) Fundamental questions in ecology and evolution; and (5) Multi-level governance across boundaries. We discuss the need for increased capacity building and investment in research programmes to address these challenges.

Negative biotic interactions drive predictions of distributions for species from a grassland community.

Understanding the factors that determine species' geographical distributions is important for addressing a wide range of biological questions, including where species will be able to maintain populations following environmental change. New methods for modelling species distributions include the effects of biotic interactions alongside more commonly used abiotic variables such as temperature and precipitation; however, it is not clear which types of interspecific relationship contribute to shaping species distributions and should therefore be prioritized in models. Even if some interactions are known to be influential at local spatial scales, there is no guarantee they will have similar impacts at macroecological scales. Here we apply a novel method based on information theory to determine which types of interspecific relationship drive species distributions. Our results show that negative biotic interactions such as competition have the greatest effect on model predictions for species from a California grassland community. This knowledge will help focus data collection and improve model predictions for identifying at-risk species. Furthermore, our methodological approach is applicable to any kind of species distribution model that can be specified with and without interspecific relationships.

Rapid warming is associated with population decline among terrestrial birds and mammals globally.

Animal populations have undergone substantial declines in recent decades. These declines have occurred alongside rapid, human-driven environmental change, including climate warming. An association between population declines and environmental change is well established, yet there has been relatively little analysis of the importance of the rates of climate warming and its interaction with conversion to anthropogenic land use in causing population declines. Here we present a global assessment of the impact of rapid climate warming and anthropogenic land use conversion on 987 populations of 481 species of terrestrial birds and mammals since 1950. We collated spatially referenced population trends of at least 5 years' duration from the Living Planet database and used mixed effects models to assess the association of these trends with observed rates of climate warming, rates of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, and protected area coverage. We found that declines in population abundance for both birds and mammals are greater in areas where mean temperature has increased more rapidly, and that this effect is more pronounced for birds. However, we do not find a strong effect of conversion to anthropogenic land use, body mass, or protected area coverage. Our results identify a link between rapid warming and population declines, thus supporting the notion that rapid climate warming is a global threat to biodiversity.

In vitro and preclinical assessment of an intranasal spray formulation of parathyroid hormone PTH 1-34 for the treatment of osteoporosis.

Osteoporosis treatment with PTH 1-34 injections significantly reduces the incidence of bone fracture. Potential further reductions in fracture rate should be observed through nasal spray delivery to address the poor compliance associated with patient dislike of repeated PTH 1-34 subcutaneous injections. In vitro human osteoblast-like Saos-2 cell intracellular cAMP levels were used to define PTH 1-34 nasal spray formulation bioactivity. The chemically synthesised PTH 1-34 had an EC50 of 0.76nM. Absorption enhancers polyethylene glycol (15)-hydroxystearate (Solutol® HS15), poloxamer 407, chitosan or sodium hyaluronate did not diminish the bioactivity of PTH 1-34 within an in vitro cell culture model (p >0.05). We also demonstrated the effectiveness of the transmucosal absorption enhancer Solutol® HS15 in a nasal spray formulation using a preclinical pharmacokinetic model. In Sprague-Dawley rats without the absorption enhancer the uptake of PTH 1-34 into the blood via intranasal delivery produced a Cmax of 2.1±0.5ng/ml compared to 13.7±1.6ng/ml with Solutol® HS15 enhancer (p=0.016) and a Cmax14.8±8ng/ml in subcutaneous injections. Together these data illustrate that the nasal spray formulation bioactivity in vitro is not affected by the nasal spray absorption enhancers investigated, and the Solutol® HS15 nasal spray formulation had an equivalent pharmacokinetic profile to subcutaneous injection in the rat model. The Solutol® HS15 formulation therefore demonstrated potential as a PTH 1-34 nasal spray formulation for the treatment of osteoporosis.

Riparian plant litter quality increases with latitude.

Plant litter represents a major basal resource in streams, where its decomposition is partly regulated by litter traits. Litter-trait variation may determine the latitudinal gradient in decomposition in streams, which is mainly microbial in the tropics and detritivore-mediated at high latitudes. However, this hypothesis remains untested, as we lack information on large-scale trait variation for riparian litter. Variation cannot easily be inferred from existing leaf-trait databases, since nutrient resorption can cause traits of litter and green leaves to diverge. Here we present the first global-scale assessment of riparian litter quality by determining latitudinal variation (spanning 107°) in litter traits (nutrient concentrations; physical and chemical defences) of 151 species from 24 regions and their relationships with environmental factors and phylogeny. We hypothesized that litter quality would increase with latitude (despite variation within regions) and traits would be correlated to produce 'syndromes' resulting from phylogeny and environmental variation. We found lower litter quality and higher nitrogen:phosphorus ratios in the tropics. Traits were linked but showed no phylogenetic signal, suggesting that syndromes were environmentally determined. Poorer litter quality and greater phosphorus limitation towards the equator may restrict detritivore-mediated decomposition, contributing to the predominance of microbial decomposers in tropical streams.

Linking macroecology and community ecology: refining predictions of species distributions using biotic interaction networks.

Macroecological models for predicting species distributions usually only include abiotic environmental conditions as explanatory variables, despite knowledge from community ecology that all species are linked to other species through biotic interactions. This disconnect is largely due to the different spatial scales considered by the two sub-disciplines: macroecologists study patterns at large extents and coarse resolutions, while community ecologists focus on small extents and fine resolutions. A general framework for including biotic interactions in macroecological models would help bridge this divide, as it would allow for rigorous testing of the role that biotic interactions play in determining species ranges. Here, we present an approach that combines species distribution models with Bayesian networks, which enables the direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions to be modelled as propagating conditional dependencies among species' presences. We show that including biotic interactions in distribution models for species from a California grassland community results in better range predictions across the western USA. This new approach will be important for improving estimates of species distributions and their dynamics under environmental change.

Resection and Resolution of Bone Marrow Lesions Associated with an Improvement of Pain after Total Knee Replacement: A Novel Case Study Using a 3-Tesla Metal Artefact Reduction MRI Sequence.

We present our case report using a novel metal artefact reduction magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequence to observe resolution of subchondral bone marrow lesions (BMLs), which are strongly associated with pain, in a patient after total knee replacement surgery. Large BMLs were seen preoperatively on the 3-Tesla MRI scans in a patient with severe end stage OA awaiting total knee replacement surgery. Twelve months after surgery, using a novel metal artefact reduction MRI sequence, we were able to visualize the bone-prosthesis interface and found complete resection and resolution of these BMLs. This is the first reported study in the UK to use this metal artefact reduction MRI sequence at 3-Tesla showing that resection and resolution of BMLs in this patient were associated with an improvement of pain and function after total knee replacement surgery. In this case it was associated with a clinically significant improvement of pain and function after surgery. Failure to eradicate these lesions may be a cause of persistent postoperative pain that is seen in up to 20% of patients following TKR surgery.