Higher loss of livelihood and impoverishment in households affected by tuberculosis compared to non-tuberculosis affected households in Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional study.

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) disproportionally affects poor people, leading to income and non-income losses. Measures of socioeconomic impact of TB, e.g. impoverishment and patient costs are inadequate to capture non-income losses. We applied impoverishment and a multidimensional measure on TB and non-TB affected households in Zimbabwe. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study in 270 households: 90 non-TB; 90 drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB), 90 drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021). Household data included ownership of assets, number of household members, income and indicators on five capital assets: financial, human, social, natural and physical. We determined proportions of impoverished households for periods 12 months prior and at the time of the interview. Households with incomes below US$1.90/day were considered to be impoverished. We used principal component analysis on five capital asset indicators to create a binary outcome variable indicating loss of livelihood. Log-binomial regression was used to determine associations between loss of livelihood and type of household. Results: TB-affected households reported higher previous episodes of TB and household members requiring care than non-TB households. Households that were impoverished 12 months prior to the study were: 21 non-TB (23%); 40 DS-TB (45%); 37 DR-TB (41%). The proportions increased to 81%, 88% and 94%, respectively by the time of interview. Overall, 56% (152/270) of households sold assets: 44% (40/90) non-TB, 58% (52/90) DS-TB and 67% (60/90) DR-TB. Children's education was affected in 31% (56/180) of TB-affected compared to 13% (12/90) non-TB households. Overall, 133(50%) households experienced loss of livelihood, with TB-affected households twice as likely to experience loss of livelihood; adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR=2.02 (95%CI:1.35-3.03)). The effect of TB on livelihood was most pronounced in poorest households (aPR=2.64, (95%CI:1.29-5.41)). Conclusions: TB-affected households experienced greater socioeconomic losses compared to non-TB households. Multidimensional measures of TB are crucial to inform multisectoral approaches to mitigate impacts of TB and other shocks.

Coping with drug resistant tuberculosis alongside COVID-19 and other stressors in Zimbabwe: A qualitative study.

Households in low-resource settings are more vulnerable to events which adversely affect their livelihoods, including shocks e.g. death of family members, droughts and more recently COVID-19. Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (DR-TB) is another shock that inflicts physical, psychological and socioeconomic burden on individuals and households. We describe experiences and coping strategies among people affected by DR-TB and their households in Zimbabwe during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020-2021. We purposively selected 16 adults who had just completed or were completing treatment for DR-TB for in-depth interviews. We transcribed audio-recordings verbatim and translated the transcripts into English. Data were coded both manually and using NVivo 12 (QSR International), and were analysed thematically. Health seeking from providers outside the public sector, extra-pulmonary TB and health system factors resulted in delayed DR-TB diagnosis and treatment and increased financial drain on households. DR-TB reduced productive capacity and narrowed job opportunities leading to income loss that continued even after completion of treatment. Household livelihood was further adversely affected by lockdowns due to COVID-19, outbreaks of bird flu and cattle disease. Stockouts of DR-TB medicines, common during COVID-19, exacerbated loss of productive time and transport costs as medication had to be accessed from other clinics. Reversible coping strategies included: reducing number of meals; relocating in search of caregivers and/or family support; spending savings; negotiating with school authorities to keep children in school. Some households adopted irreversible coping strategies e.g. selling productive assets and withdrawing children from school. DR-TB combined with COVID-19 and other stressors and pushed households into deeper poverty and vulnerability. Multisectoral approaches that combine health systems and socioeconomic interventions are crucial to mitigate diagnostic delays and suffering, and meaningfully support people with DR-TB and their households to compensate the loss of livelihoods during and post DR-TB treatment.

Use of a Sustainable Livelihood Framework-Based Measure to Estimate Socioeconomic Impact of Tuberculosis on Households.

Tuberculosis (TB) disproportionally affects impoverished members of society. The adverse socioeconomic impact of TB on households is mostly measured using money-centric approaches, which have been criticized as one-dimensional and risk either overestimating or underestimating the true socioeconomic impacts of TB. We propose the use of the sustainable livelihood framework, which includes 5 household capital assets (human, financial, physical, natural, and social) and conceptualizes that households employ accumulative strategies in times of plenty and coping (survival) strategies in response to shocks such as TB. The proposed measure ascertains to what extent the 5 capital assets are available to households affected by TB as well as the coping costs (reversible and nonreversible) that are incurred by households at different time points (intensive, continuation, and post-TB treatment phase). We assert that our approach is holistic and multidimensional and draws attention to multisectoral responses to mitigate the socioeconomic impact of TB on households.

Coping with drug resistant tuberculosis alongside COVID-19 and other stressors in Zimbabwe: a qualitative study.

Background: Households in low-resource settings are more vulnerable to events which adversely affect their livelihoods, including shocks such as the death of a family member, inflation, droughts and more recently COVID-19. Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (DR-TB) is also another shock that inflicts physical, psychological and socioeconomic burden on individuals and households. We describe experiences and coping strategies among people affected by DR-TB and their households in Zimbabwe during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 to 2021. Methods: We conducted 16 in-depth interviews with adults who had just completed or were completing treatment. Interview themes included health seeking behaviour, impact of DR-TB on livelihoods and coping strategies adopted during treatment. We analysed data using thematic analyses. Results: Health seeking from providers outside the public sector, extra-pulmonary TB and health system factors resulted in delayed DR-TB diagnosis and treatment and increased financial drain on households. DR-TB reduced productive capacity and narrowed job opportunities leading to income loss that continued even after completion of treatment. Household livelihood was further adversely affected by lockdowns due to COVID-19, outbreaks of bird flu and cattle disease. Stockouts of DR-TB medicines, common during COVID-19, exacerbated loss of productive time and transport costs as medication had to be accessed from other clinics that were further away. Reversible coping strategies included: reducing number of meals; relocating in search of caregivers and/or family support; spending savings; negotiating with school authorities to keep children in school. Some households had to adopt irreversible coping strategies such as selling productive assets and withdrawing children from school. Conclusion: DR-TB combined with COVID-19 and other stressors pushed households into deeper poverty, and vulnerability. Multi-sectoral approaches that combine health systems, psychosocial and economic interventions are crucial to mitigate diagnostic delays and suffering, and meaningfully support people with DR-TB and their households to compensate the loss of livelihoods during and post DR-TB treatment.

Effectiveness and safety of bedaquiline-based, modified all-oral 9-11-month treatment regimen for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in Vietnam.

OBJECTIVES: World Health Organization recommends a 7-drug 9-11-month rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) short treatment regimen (STR). To reduce the pill burden, we assessed the safety and effectiveness of a 5-drug 9-11-month modified STR (mSTR). METHODS: Prospective cohort study of an all-oral mSTR (comprising bedaquiline, levofloxacin, linezolid [LZD], clofazimine, and/or pyrazinamide) for patients with RR-TB without confirmed fluoroquinolone resistance, enrolled in Vietnam between 2020-2021. RESULTS: A total of 108 patients were enrolled in this study. Overall, 63 of 74 (85%) achieved culture conversion at 2 months. Of 106 evaluated, 95 (90%) were successfully treated, six (6%) were lost-to-follow-up, one (1%) died, and four (4%) had treatment failure, including three with permanent regimen change owing to adverse events (AE) and one with culture reversion. Of 108, 32 (30%) patients encountered at least one AE. Of 45 AEs recorded, 13 (29%) were serious (hospitalization, life threatening, or death). The median time to AE was 3 months (IQR: 2-5). A total of 26 AEs led to regimen adaptation: either dose reduction (N = 1), drug temporary interruption (N = 19), or drug permanent discontinuation (N = 6, 4 attributed to LZD). CONCLUSION: The high treatment success of 5-drug mSTR might replace the 7-drug regimen in routine care. AEs were frequent, but manageable in most patients. Active AEs monitoring is essential, particularly when using LZD throughout.

Coverage and effectiveness of conditional cash transfer for people with drug resistant tuberculosis in Zimbabwe: A mixed methods study.

The End TB strategy recommends social protection to mitigate socio-economic impacts of tuberculosis. Zimbabwe started implementing a conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme for people on drug resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) treatment in 2013. We aimed to determine the proportion of people receiving CCT and effectiveness of CCT in improving treatment outcomes, explore their experiences with registering for CCT and understand the impact of CCT from the perspective of beneficiaries. Data from 2014-2021 were extracted from TB registers and CCT payment records within the National TB Programme. Sixteen in-depth interviews were conducted with people who were completing treatment or had completed treatment within two months. Poisson regression, adjusted for province, year of treatment, age and sex was used to investigate associations between receiving CCT and successful treatment outcomes among people who were in DR-TB care for ≥3 months after treatment initiation. Qualitative data were analyzed using thematic analysis. A total of 481 people were included in the quantitative study. Of these, 53% (254/481) received CCT at some point during treatment. People who exited DR-TB care within three months were 73% less likely to receive CCT than those who did not (prevalence ratio (PR) = 0.27 [95%CI: 0.18-0.41]). Among those who were alive and in care three months after treatment initiation, CCT recipients were 32% more likely to have successful outcomes than those who did not (adjusted PR = 1.32, [95%CI: 1.00-1.75]). Qualitative results revealed lack of knowledge about availability of CCT among people with DR-TB and missed opportunities by healthcare providers to provide information about availability of CCT. Delays and inconsistencies in disbursements of CCT were frequent themes. CCT were associated with successful treatment outcomes. Improvements in coverage, timeliness and predictability of disbursements are recommended.

Lifetime burden of disease due to incident tuberculosis: a global reappraisal including post-tuberculosis sequelae.

BACKGROUND: Many individuals who survive tuberculosis disease face ongoing disability and elevated mortality risks. However, the impact of post-tuberculosis sequelae is generally omitted from policy analyses and disease burden estimates. We therefore estimated the global burden of tuberculosis, inclusive of post-tuberculosis morbidity and mortality. METHODS: We constructed a hypothetical cohort of individuals developing tuberculosis in 2019, including pulmonary and extrapulmonary disease. We simulated lifetime health outcomes for this cohort, stratified by country, age, sex, HIV status, and treatment status. We used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to summarise fatal and non-fatal health losses attributable to tuberculosis, during the disease episode and afterwards. We estimated post-tuberculosis mortality and morbidity based on the decreased lung function caused by pulmonary tuberculosis disease. FINDINGS: Globally, we estimated 122 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 98-151) million DALYs due to incident tuberculosis disease in 2019, with 58 (38-83) million DALYs attributed to post-tuberculosis sequelae, representing 47% (95% UI 37-57) of the total burden estimate. The increase in burden from post-tuberculosis varied substantially across countries and regions, driven largely by differences in estimated case fatality for the disease episode. We estimated 12·1 DALYs (95% UI 10·0-14·9) per incident tuberculosis case, of which 6·3 DALYs (5·6-7·0) were from the disease episode and 5·8 DALYs (3·8-8·3) were from post-tuberculosis. Per-case post-tuberculosis burden estimates were greater for younger individuals, and in countries with high incidence rates. The burden of post-tuberculosis was spread over the remaining lifetime of tuberculosis survivors, with almost a third of total DALYs (28%, 95% UI 23-34) accruing 15 or more years after incident tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Post-tuberculosis sequelae add substantially to the overall disease burden caused by tuberculosis. This hitherto unquantified burden has been omitted from most previous policy analyses. Future policy analyses and burden estimates should take better account of post-tuberculosis, to avoid the potential misallocation of funding, political attention, and research effort resulting from continued neglect of this issue. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Catastrophic costs among tuberculosis-affected households in Zimbabwe: A national health facility-based survey.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence and major drivers of catastrophic costs among TB-affected households in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We conducted a nationally representative health facility-based survey with random cluster sampling among consecutively enrolled drug-susceptible (DS-TB) and drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) patients. Costs incurred and income lost due to TB illness were captured using an interviewer-administered standardised questionnaire. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the risk factors for experiencing catastrophic costs. RESULTS: A total of 841 patients were enrolled and were weighted to 900 during data analysis. There were 500 (56%) males and 46 (6%) DR-TB patients. Thirty-five (72%) DR-TB patients were HIV co-infected. Overall, 80% (95% CI: 77-82) of TB patients and their households experienced catastrophic costs. The major cost driver pre-TB diagnosis was direct medical costs. Nutritional supplements were the major cost driver post-TB diagnosis, with a median cost of US$360 (IQR: 240-600). Post-TB median diagnosis costs were three times higher among DR-TB (US$1,659 [653-2,787]) than drug DS-TB-affected households (US$537 [204-1,134]). Income loss was five times higher among DR-TB than DS-TB patients. In multivariable analysis, household wealth was the only covariate that remained significantly associated with catastrophic costs: The poorest households had 16 times the odds of incurring catastrophic costs versus the wealthiest households (adjusted odds ratio [aOR: 15.7 95% CI: 7.5-33.1]). CONCLUSION: The majority of TB-affected households, especially those affected by DR-TB, experienced catastrophic costs. Since the major cost drivers fall outside the healthcare system, multi-sectoral approaches to TB control and linking TB patients to social protection may reduce catastrophic costs.

Does Ghana's National Health Insurance Scheme provide financial protection to tuberculosis patients and their households?

Financial barriers are a key limitation to accessing health services, such as tuberculosis (TB) care in resource-poor settings. In Ghana, the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), established in 2003, officially offers free TB care to those enrolled. Using data from the first Ghana's national TB patient cost survey, we address two key questions 1) what are the key determinants of costs and affordability for TB-affected households, and 2) what would be the impact on costs for TB-affected households of expanding NHIS to all TB patients? We reported the level of direct and indirect costs, the proportion of TB-affected households experiencing catastrophic costs (defined as total TB-related costs, i.e., direct and indirect, exceeding 20% of their estimated pre-diagnosis annual household income), and potential determinants of costs, stratified by insurance status. Regression models were used to determine drivers of costs and affordability. The effect of enrolment into NHIS on costs was investigated through Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting Analysis. Higher levels of education and income, a bigger household size and an multi-drug resistant TB diagnosis were associated with higher direct costs. Being in a low wealth quintile, living in an urban setting, losing one's job and having MDR-TB increased the odds of experiencing catastrophic costs. There was no evidence to suggest that enrolment in NHIS defrayed medical, non-medical, or total costs, nor mitigated income loss. Even if we expanded NHIS to all TB patients, the analyses suggest no evidence for any impact of insurance on medical cost, income loss, or total cost. An expansion of the NHIS programme will not relieve the financial burden for TB-affected households. Social protection schemes require enhancement if they are to protect TB patients from financial catastrophe.

Can economic indicators predict infectious disease spread? A cross-country panel analysis of 13 European countries.

Aims: It is unclear how economic factors impact on the epidemiology of infectious disease. We evaluated the relationship between incidence of selected infectious diseases and economic factors, including economic downturn, in 13 European countries between 1970 and 2010. Methods: Data were obtained from national communicable disease surveillance centres. Negative binomial forms of the generalised additive model (GAM) and the generalised linear model were tested to see which best reflected transmission dynamics of: diphtheria, pertussis, measles, meningococcal disease, hepatitis B, gonorrhoea, syphilis, hepatitis A and salmonella. Economic indicators were gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc), unemployment rates and (economic) downturn. Results: GAM models produced the best goodness-of-fit results. The relationship between GDPpc and disease incidence was often non-linear. Strength and directions of association between population age, tertiary education levels, GDPpc and unemployment were disease dependent. Overdispersion for almost all diseases validated the assumption of a negative binomial relationship. Downturns were not independently linked to disease incidence. Conclusions: Social and economic factors can be correlated with many infections. However, the trend is not always in the same direction, and these associations are often non-linear. Economic downturn or recessions as indicators of increased disease risk may be better replaced by GDPpc or unemployment measures.

Trends and risk factors for death and excess all-cause mortality among notified tuberculosis patients in the UK: an analysis of surveillance data.

INTRODUCTION: In the UK, several hundred patients notified with tuberculosis (TB) die every year. The aim of this article is to describe trends in deaths among notified TB patients, explore risk factors associated with death and compare all-cause mortality in TB patients with age-specific mortality rates in the general UK population. METHODS: We used 2001-2014 data from UK national TB surveillance to explore trends and risk factors for death, and population mortality data to compare age-specific death rates among notified TB patients with annual death rates in the UK general population. RESULTS: The proportion of TB patients in the UK who died each year declined steadily from 7.1% in 2002 to 5.5% in 2014. One in five patients (21.3%) was diagnosed with TB post-mortem. Where information was available, almost half of the deaths occurred within 2 months of starting treatment. Risk factors for death included demographic, disease-specific and social risk factors. Age had by far the largest effect, with patients aged ≥80 years having a 70 times increased risk of death compared with those aged <15 years. In contrast, excess mortality determined by incidence ratios comparing all-cause mortality among TB patients with that of the general population was highest among children and the working-age population (15-64 years old). CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to control TB and improve diagnosis and treatment outcomes in the UK need to be sustained. Control efforts need to focus on socially deprived and vulnerable groups. There is a need for further in-depth analysis of deaths of TB patients in the UK to identify potentially preventable factors.

Investigating the impact of TB case-detection strategies and the consequences of false positive diagnosis through mathematical modelling.

BACKGROUND: Increasing case notifications is one of the top programmatic priorities of National TB Control Programmes (NTPs). To find more cases, NTPs often need to consider expanding TB case-detection activities to populations with increasingly low prevalence of disease. Together with low-specificity diagnostic algorithms, these strategies can lead to an increasingly high number of false positive diagnoses, which has important adverse consequences. METHODS: We apply TIME, a widely-used country-level model, to quantify the expected impact of different case-finding strategies under two scenarios. In the first scenario, we compare the impact of implementing two different diagnostic algorithms (higher sensitivity only versus higher sensitivity and specificity) to reach programmatic screening targets. In the second scenario, we examine the impact of expanding coverage to a population with a lower prevalence of disease. Finally, we explore the implications of modelling without taking into consideration the screening of healthy individuals. Outcomes considered were changes in notifications, the ratio of additional false positive to true positive diagnoses, the positive predictive value (PPV), and incidence. RESULTS: In scenario 1, algorithm A of prolonged cough and GeneXpert yielded fewer additional notifications compared to algorithm B of any symptom and smear microscopy (n = 4.0 K vs 13.8 K), relative to baseline between 2017 and 2025. However, algorithm A resulted in an increase in PPV, averting 2.4 K false positive notifications thus resulting in a more efficient impact on incidence. Scenario 2 demonstrated an absolute decrease of 11% in the PPV as intensified case finding activities expanded into low-prevalence populations without improving diagnostic accuracy, yielding an additional 23 K false positive diagnoses for an additional 1.3 K true positive diagnoses between 2017 and 2025. Modelling the second scenario without taking into account screening amongst healthy individuals overestimated the impact on cases averted by a factor of 6. CONCLUSION: Our findings show that total notifications can be a misleading indicator for TB programme performance, and should be interpreted carefully. When evaluating potential case-finding strategies, NTPs should consider the specificity of diagnostic algorithms and the risk of increasing false-positive diagnoses. Similarly, modelling the impact of case-finding strategies without taking into account potential adverse consequences can overestimate impact and lead to poor strategic decision-making.

How affordable is TB care? Findings from a nationwide TB patient cost survey in Ghana.

OBJECTIVES: Tuberculosis (TB) is known as a disease of the poor. Despite TB diagnosis and care usually being offered for free, TB patients can still face substantial costs, especially in the context of multi-drug resistance (MDR). The End TB Strategy calls for zero TB-affected families incurring 'catastrophic' costs due to TB by 2025. This paper examines, by MDR status, the level and composition of costs incurred by TB-affected households during care seeking and treatment; assesses the affordability of TB care using catastrophic and impoverishment measures; and describes coping strategies used by TB-affected households to pay for TB care. METHODS: A nationally representative survey of TB patients at public health facilities across Ghana. RESULTS: We enrolled 691 patients (66 MDR). The median expenditure for non-MDR TB was US$429.6 during treatment, vs. US$659.0 for MDR patients (P-value = 0.001). Catastrophic costs affected 64.1% of patients. MDR patients were pushed significantly further over the threshold for catastrophic payments than DS patients. Payments for TB care led to a significant increase in the proportion of households in the study sample that live below the poverty line at the time of survey compared to pre-TB diagnosis. Over half of patients undertook coping strategies. CONCLUSION: TB patients in Ghana incur substantial costs, despite free diagnosis and treatment. High rates of catastrophic costs and coping strategies in both non-MDR and MDR patients show that new policies are urgently needed to ensure TB care is actually affordable for TB patients.

Towards cash transfer interventions for tuberculosis prevention, care and control: key operational challenges and research priorities.

BACKGROUND: Cash transfer interventions are forms of social protection based on the provision of cash to vulnerable households with the aim of reduce risk, vulnerability, chronic poverty and improve human capital. Such interventions are already an integral part of the response to HIV/AIDS in some settings and have recently been identified as a core element of World Health Organization's End TB Strategy. However, limited impact evaluations and operational evidence are currently available to inform this policy transition. DISCUSSION: This paper aims to assist national tuberculosis (TB) programs with this new policy direction by providing them with an overview of concepts and definitions used in the social protection sector and by reviewing some of the most critical operational aspects associated with the implementation of cash transfer interventions. These include: 1) the various implementation models that can be used depending on the context and the public health goal of the intervention; 2) the main challenges associated with the use of conditionalities and how they influence the impact of cash transfer interventions on health-related outcomes; 3) the implication of targeting diseases-affected households and or individuals versus the general population; and 4) the financial sustainability of including health-related objectives within existing cash transfer programmes. We aimed to appraise these issues in the light of TB epidemiology, care and prevention. For our appraisal we draw extensively from the literature on cash transfers and build upon the lessons learnt so far from other health outcomes and mainly HIV/AIDS. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of cash transfer interventions in the context of TB is still hampered by important knowledge gaps. Initial directions can be certainly derived from the literature on cash transfers schemes and other public health challenges such as HIV/AIDS. However, the development of a solid research agenda to address persisting unknowns on the impact of cash transfers on TB epidemiology and control is vital to inform and support the adoption of the post-2015 End TB strategy.

Towards better guidance on caseload thresholds to promote positive tuberculosis treatment outcomes: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In low-incidence countries, clinical experience of tuberculosis is becoming more limited, with potential consequences for patient outcomes. In 2007, the Department of Health released a guidance 'toolkit' recommending that tuberculosis patients in England should not be solely managed by clinicians who see fewer than 10 cases per year. This caseload threshold was established to try to improve treatment outcomes and reduce transmission, but was not evidence based. We aimed to assess the association between clinician or hospital caseload and treatment outcomes, as well as the relative suitability of making recommendations using each caseload parameter. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data for tuberculosis cases in England notified to Public Health England's Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system between 2003 and 2012 were extracted. Mean clinician and hospital caseload over the past 3 years were calculated and treatment outcomes grouped into good/neutral and unfavourable. Caseloads over time and their relationship with outcomes were described and analysed using random effects logistic regression, adjusted for clustering. RESULTS: In a fully adjusted multivariable model (34,707 cases)there was very strong evidence that management of tuberculosis by clinicians with fewer than 10 cases per year was associated with greater odds of an unfavourable outcome compared to clinicians who managed greater numbers of cases (cluster-specific odds ratio, 1.14; 95 % confidence interval, 1.05-1.25; P = 0.002). The relationship between hospital caseload and treatment outcomes was more complex and modified by a patient's place of birth and ethnicity. The clinician caseload association held after adjustment for hospital caseload and when the clinician caseload threshold was reduced down to one. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the relative ease of making recommendations at the hospital level and the greater reliability of recorded hospital versus named clinician, our results suggest that clinician caseload thresholds are more suitable for clinical guidance. The current recommended clinician caseload threshold is functional. Sensitivity analyses reducing the threshold indicated that clinical experience is pertinent even at very low average caseloads, which is encouraging for low burden settings.

Mind the gap: TB trends in the USA and the UK, 2000-2011.

BACKGROUND: TB remains a major public health concern, even in low-incidence countries like the USA and the UK. Over the last two decades, cases of TB reported in the USA have declined, while they have increased substantially in the UK. We examined factors associated with this divergence in TB trends between the two countries. METHODS: We analysed all cases of TB reported to the US and UK national TB surveillance systems from 1 January 2000 through 31 December 2011. Negative binominal regression was used to assess potential demographic, clinical and risk factor variables associated with differences in observed trends. FINDINGS: A total of 259,609 cases were reported. From 2000 to 2011, annual TB incidence rates declined from 5.8 to 3.4 cases per 100,000 in the USA, whereas in the UK, TB incidence increased from 11.4 to 14.4 cases per 100,000. The majority of cases in both the USA (56%) and the UK (64%) were among foreign-born persons. The number of foreign-born cases reported in the USA declined by 15% (7731 in 2000 to 6564 in 2011) while native-born cases fell by 54% (8442 in 2000 to 3883 in 2011). In contrast, the number of foreign-born cases reported in the UK increased by 80% (3380 in 2000 to 6088 in 2011), while the number of native-born cases remained largely unchanged (2158 in 2000 to 2137 in 2011). In an adjusted negative binomial regression model, significant differences in trend were associated with sex, age, race/ethnicity, site of disease, HIV status and previous history of TB (p<0.01). Among the foreign-born, significant differences in trend were also associated with time since UK or US entry (p<0.01). INTERPRETATION: To achieve TB elimination in the UK, a re-evaluation of current TB control policies and practices with a focus on foreign-born are needed. In the USA, maintaining and strengthening control practices are necessary to sustain the progress made over the last 20 years.

Does antiretroviral therapy reduce HIV-associated tuberculosis incidence to background rates? A national observational cohort study from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Whether the incidence of tuberculosis in HIV-positive people receiving long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains above background population rates is unclear. We compared tuberculosis incidence in people receiving ART with background rates in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. METHODS: We analysed a national cohort of HIV-positive individuals linked to the national tuberculosis register. Tuberculosis incidence in the HIV-positive cohort (2007-11) was stratified by ethnic origin and time on ART and compared with background rates (2009). Ethnic groups were defined as follows: the black African group included all individuals of black African origin, including those born in the UK and overseas; the white ethnic group included all white individuals born in the UK and overseas; the south Asian group included those of Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi origin, born in the UK and overseas; and the other ethnic group included all other ethnic origins, including black Afro-Caribbeans. FINDINGS: The HIV-positive cohort comprised 79 919 individuals, in whom there were 1550 incident cases in 231 664 person-years of observation (incidence 6·7 cases per 1000 person-years). Incidence of tuberculosis in the HIV-positive cohort was 13·6 per 1000 person-years in black Africans and 1·7 per 1000 person-years in white individuals. Incidence of tuberculosis during long-term ART (≥5 years) in black Africans with HIV was 2·4 per 1000 person-years, similar to background rates of 1·9 per 1000 person-years in this group (rate ratio 1·2, 95% CI 0·96-1·6; p=0·083); but in white individuals with HIV on long-term ART the incidence of 0·5 per 1000 person-years was higher than the background rate of 0·04 per 1000 person-years (rate ratio 14·5, 9·4-21·3; p<0·0001). The increased incidence relative to background in white HIV-positive individuals persisted when analysis was restricted to person-time accrued on ART with CD4 counts of at least 500 cells per µL and when white HIV-positive individuals born abroad were excluded. INTERPRETATION: Tuberculosis incidence is unacceptably high irrespective of HIV status in black Africans. In white individuals with HIV, tuberculosis incidence is significantly higher than background rates in white people despite long-term ART. Expanded testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection to all HIV-infected adults, irrespective of ART status and CD4 cell count, might be warranted. FUNDING: Public Health England.