Horse populations are severely underestimated in a region at risk of Hendra virus spillover.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the size and distribution of the horse population in the Northern Rivers Region of NSW, including changes from 2007 to 2021, to better understand populations at risk of Hendra virus transmission. METHODS: Census data from the 2007 Equine Influenza (EI) outbreak were compared with data collected annually by New South Wales Local Land Services (LLS) (2011-2021), and with field observations via road line transects (2021). RESULTS: The horse populations reported to LLS in 2011 (3000 horses; 0.77 horses/km2) was 145% larger than that reported during the EI outbreak in 2007 (1225 horses; 0.32 horses/km2). This was inconsistent with the 6% increase in horses recorded from 2011 to 2020 within the longitudinal LLS dataset. Linear modelling suggested the true horse population of this region in 2007 was at least double that reported at the time. Distance sampling in 2021 estimated the region's population at 10,185 horses (3.89 per km2; 95% CI = 4854-21,372). Field sampling and modelling identified higher horse densities in rural cropland, with the percentage of conservation land, modified grazing, and rural residential land identified as the best predictors of horse densities. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the 2007 EI outbreak no longer correlates to the current horse population in size or distribution and was likely not a true representation at the time. Current LLS data also likely underestimates horse populations. Ongoing efforts to further quantify and map horse populations in Australia are important for estimating and managing the risk of equine zoonoses.

Depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on mental health is still being unravelled. It is important to identify which individuals are at greatest risk of worsening symptoms. This study aimed to examine changes in depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms using prospective and retrospective symptom change assessments, and to find and examine the effect of key risk factors. METHOD: Online questionnaires were administered to 34 465 individuals (aged 16 years or above) in April/May 2020 in the UK, recruited from existing cohorts or via social media. Around one-third (n = 12 718) of included participants had prior diagnoses of depression or anxiety and had completed pre-pandemic mental health assessments (between September 2018 and February 2020), allowing prospective investigation of symptom change. RESULTS: Prospective symptom analyses showed small decreases in depression (PHQ-9: -0.43 points) and anxiety [generalised anxiety disorder scale - 7 items (GAD)-7: -0.33 points] and increases in PTSD (PCL-6: 0.22 points). Conversely, retrospective symptom analyses demonstrated significant large increases (PHQ-9: 2.40; GAD-7 = 1.97), with 55% reported worsening mental health since the beginning of the pandemic on a global change rating. Across both prospective and retrospective measures of symptom change, worsening depression, anxiety and PTSD symptoms were associated with prior mental health diagnoses, female gender, young age and unemployed/student status. CONCLUSIONS: We highlight the effect of prior mental health diagnoses on worsening mental health during the pandemic and confirm previously reported sociodemographic risk factors. Discrepancies between prospective and retrospective measures of changes in mental health may be related to recall bias-related underestimation of prior symptom severity.

Predicting prognosis for adults with depression using individual symptom data: a comparison of modelling approaches.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop, validate and compare the performance of models predicting post-treatment outcomes for depressed adults based on pre-treatment data. METHODS: Individual patient data from all six eligible randomised controlled trials were used to develop (k = 3, n = 1722) and test (k = 3, n = 918) nine models. Predictors included depressive and anxiety symptoms, social support, life events and alcohol use. Weighted sum scores were developed using coefficient weights derived from network centrality statistics (models 1-3) and factor loadings from a confirmatory factor analysis (model 4). Unweighted sum score models were tested using elastic net regularised (ENR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (models 5 and 6). Individual items were then included in ENR and OLS (models 7 and 8). All models were compared to one another and to a null model (mean post-baseline Beck Depression Inventory Second Edition (BDI-II) score in the training data: model 9). Primary outcome: BDI-II scores at 3-4 months. RESULTS: Models 1-7 all outperformed the null model and model 8. Model performance was very similar across models 1-6, meaning that differential weights applied to the baseline sum scores had little impact. CONCLUSIONS: Any of the modelling techniques (models 1-7) could be used to inform prognostic predictions for depressed adults with differences in the proportions of patients reaching remission based on the predicted severity of depressive symptoms post-treatment. However, the majority of variance in prognosis remained unexplained. It may be necessary to include a broader range of biopsychosocial variables to better adjudicate between competing models, and to derive models with greater clinical utility for treatment-seeking adults with depression.

Hendra in the Hunter Valley.

In June 2019 the first equine case of Hendra virus in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia was detected. An urgent human and animal health response took place, involving biosecurity measures, contact tracing, promotion of equine vaccinations and investigation of flying fox activity in the area. No human or additional animal cases occurred. Equine vaccination uptake increased by over 30-fold in the surrounding region in the three months following the case. Black flying fox and grey-headed flying fox species were detected in the Valley. The incident prompted review of Hendra virus resources at local and national levels. This event near the "horse capital of Australia", is the southernmost known equine Hendra case. Management of the event was facilitated by interagency collaboration involving human and animal health experts. Ongoing One Health partnerships are essential for successful responses to future zoonotic events.

Time of year, age class and body condition predict Hendra virus infection in Australian black flying foxes (Pteropus alecto).

Hendra virus (HeV) continues to cause fatal infection in horses and threaten infection in close-contact humans in eastern Australia. Species of Pteropus bats (flying-foxes) are the natural reservoir of the virus. We caught and sampled flying-foxes from a multispecies roost in southeast Queensland, Australia on eight occasions between June 2013 and June 2014. The effects of sample date, species, sex, age class, body condition score (BCS), pregnancy and lactation on HeV antibody prevalence, log-transformed median fluorescent intensity (lnMFI) values and HeV RNA status were assessed using unbalanced generalised linear models. A total of 1968 flying-foxes were sampled, comprising 1012 Pteropus alecto, 742 P. poliocephalus and 214 P. scapulatus. Sample date, species and age class were each statistically associated with HeV RNA status, antibody status and lnMFI values; BCS was statistically associated with HeV RNA status and antibody status. The findings support immunologically naïve sub-adult P. alecto playing an important role in maintaining HeV infection at a population level. The biological significance of the association between BCS and HeV RNA status, and BCS and HeV antibody status, is less clear and warrants further investigation. Contrary to previous studies, we found no direct association between HeV infection and pregnancy or lactation. The findings in P. poliocephalus suggest that HeV exposure in this species may not result in systemic infection and virus excretion, or alternatively, may reflect assay cross-reactivity with another (unidentified) henipavirus.

Conditions affecting the timing and magnitude of Hendra virus shedding across pteropodid bat populations in Australia.

Understanding infection dynamics in animal hosts is fundamental to managing spillover and emergence of zoonotic infections. Hendra virus is endemic in Australian pteropodid bat populations and can be lethal to horses and humans. However, we know little about the factors driving Hendra virus prevalence in resevoir bat populations, making spillover difficult to predict. We use Hendra virus prevalence data collected from 13 000 pooled bat urine samples across space and time to determine if pulses of prevalence are periodic and synchronized across sites. We also test whether site-specific precipitation and temperature affect the amplitude of the largest annual prevalence pulses. We found little evidence for a periodic signal in Hendra virus prevalence. Although the largest amplitude pulses tended to occur over winter, pulses could also occur in other seasons. We found that Hendra virus prevalence was weakly synchronized across sites over short distances, suggesting that prevalence is driven by local-scale effects. Finally, we found that drier conditions in previous seasons and the abundance of Pteropus alecto were positively correlated with the peak annual values of Hendra virus prevalence. Our results suggest that in addition to seasonal effects, bat density and local climatic conditions interact to drive Hendra virus infection dynamics.

Persistent infections support maintenance of a coronavirus in a population of Australian bats (Myotis macropus).

Understanding viral transmission dynamics within populations of reservoir hosts can facilitate greater knowledge of the spillover of emerging infectious diseases. While bat-borne viruses are of concern to public health, investigations into their dynamics have been limited by a lack of longitudinal data from individual bats. Here, we examine capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data from a species of Australian bat (Myotis macropus) infected with a putative novel Alphacoronavirus within a Bayesian framework. Then, we developed epidemic models to estimate the effect of persistently infectious individuals (which shed viruses for extensive periods) on the probability of viral maintenance within the study population. We found that the CMR data analysis supported grouping of infectious bats into persistently and transiently infectious bats. Maintenance of coronavirus within the study population was more likely in an epidemic model that included both persistently and transiently infectious bats, compared with the epidemic model with non-grouping of bats. These findings, using rare CMR data from longitudinal samples of individual bats, increase our understanding of transmission dynamics of bat viral infectious diseases.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations.

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.

Deciphering serology to understand the ecology of infectious diseases in wildlife.

The ecology of infectious disease in wildlife has become a pivotal theme in animal and public health. Studies of infectious disease ecology rely on robust surveillance of pathogens in reservoir hosts, often based on serology, which is the detection of specific antibodies in the blood and is used to infer infection history. However, serological data can be inaccurate for inference to infection history for a variety of reasons. Two major aspects in any serological test can substantially impact results and interpretation of antibody prevalence data: cross-reactivity and cut-off thresholds used to discriminate positive and negative reactions. Given the ubiquitous use of serology as a tool for surveillance and epidemiological modeling of wildlife diseases, it is imperative to consider the strengths and limitations of serological test methodologies and interpretation of results, particularly when using data that may affect management and policy for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in wildlife. Greater consideration of population age structure and cohort representation, serological test suitability and standardized sample collection protocols can ensure that reliable data are obtained for downstream modeling applications to characterize, and evaluate interventions for, wildlife disease systems.

Ecology of zoonotic infectious diseases in bats: current knowledge and future directions.

Bats are hosts to a range of zoonotic and potentially zoonotic pathogens. Human activities that increase exposure to bats will likely increase the opportunity for infections to spill over in the future. Ecological drivers of pathogen spillover and emergence in novel hosts, including humans, involve a complex mixture of processes, and understanding these complexities may aid in predicting spillover. In particular, only once the pathogen and host ecologies are known can the impacts of anthropogenic changes be fully appreciated. Cross-disciplinary approaches are required to understand how host and pathogen ecology interact. Bats differ from other sylvatic disease reservoirs because of their unique and diverse lifestyles, including their ability to fly, often highly gregarious social structures, long lifespans and low fecundity rates. We highlight how these traits may affect infection dynamics and how both host and pathogen traits may interact to affect infection dynamics. We identify key questions relating to the ecology of infectious diseases in bats and propose that a combination of field and laboratory studies are needed to create data-driven mechanistic models to elucidate those aspects of bat ecology that are most critical to the dynamics of emerging bat viruses. If commonalities can be found, then predicting the dynamics of newly emerging diseases may be possible. This modelling approach will be particularly important in scenarios when population surveillance data are unavailable and when it is unclear which aspects of host ecology are driving infection dynamics.

Bartonella species in bat flies (Diptera: Nycteribiidae) from western Africa.

Bat flies are obligate ectoparasites of bats and it has been hypothesized that they may be involved in the transmission of Bartonella species between bats. A survey was conducted to identify whether Cyclopodia greefi greefi (Diptera: Nycteribiidae) collected from Ghana and 2 islands in the Gulf of Guinea harbour Bartonella. In total, 137 adult flies removed from Eidolon helvum, the straw-coloured fruit bat, were screened for the presence of Bartonella by culture and PCR analysis. Bartonella DNA was detected in 91 (66·4%) of the specimens examined and 1 strain of a Bartonella sp., initially identified in E. helvum blood from Kenya, was obtained from a bat fly collected in Ghana. This is the first study, to our knowledge, to report the identification and isolation of Bartonella in bat flies from western Africa.

Energy relations of solute loading in sieve elements of willow.

Experiments are described which attempt to clarify the quantitative relationship between sieve-tube loading of sucrose, and ATP-turnover rates in the phloem of willow (Salix viminalis L.). Two experimental approaches have been made towards the solution of this problem. In the first of these the respiratory breakdown of (14)C-sugars was measured in segments of willow stem when no sieve-tube transport was taking place, and also under conditions where transport was occurring in response to the feeding of individuals of the aphid Tuberolachnus salignus (Gmelin). An increase in respiratory activity, measured by the output of (14)CO2, was found to occur as a consequence of transport. Since the rate of sieve-tube sugar loading could be measured by the production of honeydew from the aphids, and by making assumptions concerning the production of ATP in respiration, it was concluded that the stoichiometry of sucrose loading was 1.9 mol ATP · (mol sucrose)(-1). A somewhat higher value of 2.5 mol ATP · (mol sucrose)(-1) was found using the second approach. In this, attempts were made to measure ATP turnover rates using [(32)P]orthophosphate supplied to strips of willow bark which bore exuding aphid stylets.

Loading and source of sugars for the sieve elements in stems of willow.

Uniformly labelled [(14)C]glucose was introduced into the xylem of segments of willow stem. Forty-eight hours later sieve-tube sucrose was collected via servered aphid stylets, and the distribution of radioactivity in the hexose moieties of this was compared with the distribution in those of sucrose extracted from the segment. Very little correlation was found between the two sets of values, indicating possible inversion during loading. This lack of correlation could not be attributed to contributions to the sieve-tube sucrose from pools of labelled hexoses in the segment. Further experiments, however, showed quite high degrees of correlation between sieve-tube sucrose and sucrose extracted from the wood, indicating that the latter tissue was a major source of sieve-tube sucrose. This conclusion was substantiated in experiments in which sieve-tube exudate, obtained from stem segments, was compared with exudate obtained from the isolated bark of the segment. In other experiments, stylets were established on stem segments, then on isolated pieces of bark obtained from these segments. Sucrose and potassium exudation rates fell by as much as 50% on removing the bark from the segment. It was not possible to formulate a precise figure for the contribution of the wood to stylet exudation owing to injury effects and the complexity of the experimental system. No firm evidence could be found in support of the view that sucrose is inverted during loading of sieve elements from the storage cells of the stem.

Stimulation of sugar loading into sieve elements of willow by potassium and sodium salts.

Potassium as the chloride, nitrate or sulphate or sodium as the chloride, were applied at a concentration of 50 mM either to the xylem of stem segments or to the cambial surface of bark strips of willow. Potassium chloride increased the concentration of sucrose in sieve tube exudate collected via severed aphid stylets, without significantly affecting the volume flow rate, or the concentration of potassium in the exudate. The increase in the sucrose level in the sieve tube sap was shown to be due to a stimulation of loading, rather than to an enhancement of longitudinal transport. Potassium nitrate and sulphate or sodium chloride, were not as effective as potassium chloride in stimulating the loading of sucrose. It is suggested that uptake of the cation into cells supplying sugars to the sieve tube is linked to the rate of release of sugars by the supplying cells.

Evidence for solution flow in the phloem of willow.

Sucrose specific mass transfer measurements were made in a translocating willow shoot (Salix viminalis L.) by a steady state labelling technique and the translocate sucrose specific activity, concentration and velocity monitored by analysis of the honeydew from two colonies of the willow aphid Tuberolachnus salignus Gmelin. The values of sucrose SMT obtained were related to the simultaneous measurements of translocate concentration and velocity and to the gradients of sucrose concentration within the stem transport path to determine if transport was a bulk flow or a diffusional analogue. Estimates of potassium ion concentration in the sieve tubes were made, using aphid honeydew, and related to the sucrose SMT measured simultaneously. Correlations were found between translocate concentration, velocity and SMT which suggested that solution flow was occurring rather than a process analogous to diffusion. Evidence was obtained that velocity of flow was a valid concept and that the measured velocity was being lowered by leakage of tracer from the sieve tubes. The analysis of potassium concentration suggested that if solution flow was occurring then potassium must be very exchangeable down the transport path. A good correlation was observed between the SMT of sucrose and the combined gradient of sucrose and potassium concentration, though this gradient was in the opposite direction to transport in some cases.

Some evidence for the existence of turgor pressure gradients in the sieve tubes of willow.

Sieve tube sap was collected either from the severed stylets of Tuberolachnus salignus (Gmelin) or via incisions made into the phloem of small willow trees or potted cuttings. Measurements of the osmotic potential (O.P.) of sap samples showed a gradient to exist in the presumed direction of assimilate transport, ie from apex to base of the stem.In most experiments samples of phloem tissue were taken after the collection of sieve tube sap, the water potential of these pieces of tissue being measured in a psychometer. Although a water potential gradient existed in the opposite sense to the O.P. gradient in the sap (lowest water potential at the apex of the stem), the difference between O.P. and W.P. indicated the turgor of the sieve tubes to be higher at the apex than at the base of the stem. The magnitude of the turgor gradient measured in this way lay between 0.5 and 2.7 atm m(-1).In other experiments severed stylets only were used to determine whether a hydrostatic gradient can exist in willow sieve tubes. After measurement of flow rates from stylets sited at the apex and base of willow stems, the Poiseuille expression was used to calculate the pressure at the point of stylet puncture. These experiments gave values for the pressure gradient (in the presumed direction of assimilate flow) of between 1.9 and 4.7 atm m(-1).

A method for estimating the proportion of sieve tubes in the phloem of higher plants.

A statistical method has been developed for the estimation of the proportion of phloem area occupied by sieve tube lumen which is applicable to most higher plants. By simple probability, the number of sieve tubes in a given area of phloem is equal to the number of sieve plates present in a series of transverse sections whose total thickness equals the mean sieve element length. The case of oblique sieve plates, where the plate is divided and occurs in more than one section, has also been dealt with and a solution obtained. Estimates of the proportion of phloem area occupied by sieve tubes have been made by this method in willow (Salix viminalis L.), sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) and a cucurbit (Ecballium elaterium L.) and the values obtained discussed in relation to estimates made previously by other methods.

Some observations on the role of ATP in sieve tube translocation.

Using the aphid stylet technique (14)C ATP was shown to be readily taken up into the sieve elements of willow. At the same time this compound was found to be metabolised during uptake resulting in labelled ADP and AMP appearing in the stylet exudate. Longitudinal movement of labelled ATP was also found to occur.Measurement of the levels of ATP and ADP in stylet exudate showed that both were present in high concentrations. The ratio ATP/ADP varied between 2.0 and 5.3.The effect of certain inhibitors of oxidative phosphorylation (oligomycin and DNP) and glycolysis (fluoride) on the rate of stylet exudation was studied. All three inhibitors caused a cessation of exudation but this did not occur until several hours after inhibitor application. Oligomycin and DNP had no effect on the concentration of ATP in the sap. Fluoride however, appeared in some cases to reduce the ATP concentration to a low level an hour or more before exudation finally stopped.Incorporation of (32)Pi into organic phosphate esters present in stylet exudate was found to occur within 15 minutes of the application of the tracer to a bark strip. Labelling of organic phosphates also took place, at a slower rate, when (32)P inorganic phosphate was incubated with stylet exudate.

Uptake of maleic hydrazide and related compounds into willow. A comparison between molecular structure and biological activity.

A study has been made of a range of maleic hydrazide (MH) derivatives to compare their molecular structures with what has already been found concerning MH behaviour in willow (Salix viminalis L.). Use was made of two properties of MH, one of which was the ability to become concentrated into root apices of young willow roots (Coupland and Peel, 1971); the other was the ability of MH to inhibit the uptake of uracil into the sieve elements in bark strip material (Coupland and Peel, 1972). As a result of the present investigations it appears that an unsaturated heterocyclic ring system, including the grouping-CH=CH-CO-NH- is essential to retain the characteristics of the MH molecule.