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The rapid expansion of coronavirus (COVID-19) has been observed in many parts of the world. Many newly reported cases of this new coronavirus during early outbreak phases have been associated with travel history from an epidemic region (identified as imported cases). For those cases without travel history, the risk of wider spreads through community contact is even higher. However, most population models assume a homogeneous infected population without considering that the imported and secondary cases contracted by the imported cases can pose a different risk to community spread. We have developed an "easy-to-use" mathematical framework extending from a meta-population model embedding city-to-city connections to stratify the dynamics of transmission waves caused by imported, secondary, and others from an outbreak source region when control measures are considered. Using the dynamics of the secondary cases, we are able to determine the probability of community spread. Using the top 10 visiting cities from Wuhan in China as an example, we first demonstrated that the arrival time and the dynamics of the outbreaks at these cities can be successfully predicted under the reproductive number R0 = 2.92 and latent period{tau} = 5.2 days. Next, we showed that although control measures can gain extra 32.5 and 44.0 days in arrival time through a high intensive border control measure and a shorter time to quarantine under a low R0 (1.4), if the R0 is higher (2.92), only 10 extra days can be gained for each of the same measures. This suggests the importance of lowering the incidence at source regions together with infectious disease control measures in susceptible regions. The study allows us to assess the effects of border control and quarantine measures on the emergence and the global spread in a fully connected world using the dynamics of the secondary cases.
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As of February 11, 2020, all prefecture-level cities in mainland China have reported confirmed cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), but the city-level epidemical dynamics is unknown. The aim of this study is to model the current dynamics of 2019-nCoV at city level and predict the trend in the next 30 days under three possible scenarios in mainland China. We developed a spatially explicit epidemic model to consider the unique characteristics of the virus transmission in individual cities. Our model considered that the rate of virus transmission among local residents is different from those with Wuhan travel history due to the self-isolation policy. We introduced a decay rate to quantify the effort of each city to gradually control the disease spreading. We used mobile phone data to obtain the number of individuals in each city who have travel history to Wuhan. This city-level model was trained using confirmed cases up to February 10, 2020 and validated by new confirmed cases on February 11, 2020. We used the trained model to predict the future dynamics up to March 12, 2020 under different scenarios: the current trend maintained, control efforts expanded, and person-to-person contact increased due to work resuming. We estimated that the total infections in mainland China would be 72172, 54348, and 149774 by March 12, 2020 under each scenario respectively. Under the current trend, all cities will show the peak point of daily new infections by February 21. This date can be advanced to February 14 with control efforts expanded or postponed to February 26 under pressure of work resuming. Except Wuhan that cannot eliminate the disease by March 12, our model predicts that 95.4%, 100%, and 75.7% cities will have no new infections by the end of February under three scenarios. The spatial pattern of our prediction could help the government allocate resources to cities that have a more serious epidemic in the next 30 days.
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A novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) was identified in Wuhan, China and has been causing an unprecedented outbreak in China. The spread of this novel virus can eventually become an international emergency. During the early outbreak phase in Wuhan, one of the most important public health tasks is to prevent the spread of the virus to other cities. Therefore, full-scale border control measures to prevent the spread of virus have been discussed in many nearby countries. At the same time, lockdown in Wuhan cityu (border control from leaving out) has been imposed. The challenge is that many people have traveled from Wuhan to other cities before the border control. Thus, it is difficult to forecast the number of imported cases at different cities and estimate their risk on outbreak emergence. Here, we have developed a mathematical framework incorporating city-to-city connections to calculate the number of imported cases of the novel virus from an outbreak source, and the cumulative number of secondary cases generated by the imported cases. We used this number to estimate the arrival time of outbreak emergence using air travel frequency data from Wuhan to other cities, collected from the International Air Transport Association database. In addition, a meta-population compartmental model was built based on a classical SIR approach to simulate outbreaks at different cities. We consider the scenarios under three basic reproductive number (R0) settings using the best knowledge of the current findings, from high (2.92), mild (1.68), to a much lower numbers (1.4). The mean arrival time of outbreak spreading has been determined. Under the high R0, the critical time is 17.9 days after December 31, 2019 for outbreak spreading. Under the low R0, the critical time is between day 26.2 to day 35 after December 31, 2019. To make an extra 30 days gain, under the low R0 (1.4), the control measures have to reduce 87% of the connections between the source and target cities. Under the higher R0 (2.92), the effect on reducing the chance of outbreak emergence is generally low until the border control measure was enhanced to reduce more than 95% of the connections.
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Objective To systematically evaluate the efficacy and safety of brachytherapy (BT) combined with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and EBRT alone for prostate cancer.Methods Databases including PubMed,Web of Science,Cochrane Library,CNKI,WanFang Data and VIP were searched from the inception to July 2018 to collect the clinical trials which comparatively analyzed the efficacy and safety between EBRT plus BT and EBRT alone for prostate cancer.According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,data of the included studies were extracted and the methodological quality was evaluated.Then,a meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.3.Results Ten studies of 23 393 patients were included,in which 6 were randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and the other 4 were non-RCTs.The 3-year biochemical progression-free survival (b-PFS)[OR=2.03(95％CI:1.11 to 3.73),P=0.02] and the 5-year b-PFS of intermediate-risk patients[OR=2.27(95％CI:1.49 to 3.45),P＜0.01] in the EBRT+BT group were significantly higher compared with those in the EBRT group.The 3-and 5-year b-PFS,5-year overall survival and 5-year metastasis-free survival did not differ between two groups.in the incidence of ≥ grade 2 acute[OR=1.44(95％CI:1.11 to 1.38),P＜0.01] and chronic genitourinary adverse reactions [OR=3.06(95％CI:1.37 to 6.80),P＜0.01],≥ grade 3 acute[OR=1.75 (95％CI:1.14 to 2.69),P=0.01] and chronic genitourinary adverse reactions[OR=3.41(95％CI:2.42 to 4.82),P＜0.01] in the EBRT group were significantly lower than those in the EBRT+BT group.The incidence of gastrointestinal adverse reactions did not significantly differ between two groups.Conclusion Compared with EBRT alone,EBRT combined with BT can effectively improve the 3-and 5-year b-PFS,whereas increase the incidence of genitourinary adverse reactions for patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer.
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Objective To compare the dose distribution between volumetric-modulated arc therapy ( VMAT ) and intensity-modulated radiotherapy ( IMRT ) in patients with brain metastases receiving hippocampus-sparing whole brain radiotherapy. Methods Forty-six patients with brain metastases admitted to our hospital from 2013 to 2016 were recruited in this study. After fusing the CT and MRI images, the hippocampus was delineated on the fusion images. The three-grade hippocampal avoidance regions were created by using a volumetric expansion of 3,5 and 10 mm surrounding the hippocampus. The planning target volume ( PTV) was calculated by subtracting the 5-mm expansion surrounding the hippocampus from the whole brain. The prescription dose was 30 Gy/10 fractions. The 7-field IMRT and single arc VMAT were designed for each case. The dose distribution of PTV,hippocampus and other organs at risk ( OARs) were evaluated in both plans. Results The PTV was statistically compared between VMAT and IMRT:V95:95. 90％ and 94. 97％( P=0. 000 );V90:98. 17％ and 97. 48％( P=0. 000 );CI:0. 825 and 0. 813 ( P=0. 013);HI:0. 277 and 0. 289(P=0. 025).The hippocampal dose was also compared between VMAT and IMRT:the Dmax of hippocampus was 1698. 9 cGy for VMAT and 1784. 9 cGy for IMRT (P=0. 002).TheDmean of hippocampus was 1183. 8 cGy for VMAT and 1112. 7 cGy for IMRT (P=0. 000).No statistical significance was observed between IMRT and VMAT in protecting the OARs except the chiasma opticum ( 3262. 6 cGy and 3529. 3 cGy,P=0. 000).The MU and treatment time of VMAT and IMRT were 651 and 2768( P=0. 000) ,and 188 s and 504 s ( P=0. 000) . Conclusions The dose distribution of PTV in VMAT is significantly better than that in IMRT. VMAT is advantageous in protecting the hippocampus than IMRT. VMAT can significantly shorten treatment time and MU and enhance the equipment utilization. Besides, VMAT can achieve the goal of protecting the hippocampus and meet the prescription dose requirement of PTV.
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Objective To investigate the dosimetric comparison of target volumes and organs at risk (OAR) between volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for esophageal cancer by a meta-analysis.Methods A literature search was performed to collect the clinical studies on dosimetric comparison between VMAT and IMRT.The primary endpoints of interest were dosimetric parameters of target volumes and OAR, number of monitor units (MUs), and treatment time (TT).Results A total of 17 studies involving 323 patients were included in this meta-analysis.When the total dose was>50.4 Gy, VMAT showed significantly lower mean dose (Dmean) of gross tumor volume (GTV) and maximum dose (Dmax) of planning target volume (PTV) than IMRT (P=0.009;P=0.039).There were no significant differences in Dmean, V30, and V40 of the heart, Dmax of the spinal cord, and V5, V10, and Dmean of the lung between VMAT and IMRT (P>0.05).VMAT showed significantly lower V15, V20, and V30 of the lung than IMRT (P=0.001;P=0.000;P=0.023).When the single dose was 1.8 Gy and 2.0 Gy, VMAT showed significantly lower TT (reduced by 323.5 s and 193.7 s) and number of MUs (reduced by 275.4 MU and 134.2 MU) than IMRT (P=0.000 and 0.009;P=0.000 and 0.022).Conclusions VMAT can significantly reduce TT, MUs, irradiation dose to the lung, and the risk of radiation pneumonitis, and improve the utilization rate of equipment.Compared with IMRT, VMAT has no significant advantages in protection of the spinal cord and the heart and dosimetric parameters of target volumes except Dmean of PTV and Dmean and Dmax of GTV when the total dose was ≤50.4 Gy.
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Objective To compare the effects of positioning robustness on dose distribution between intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) for head and neck tumor,and to evaluate their needs for image-based guidance.Methods Thirty patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma undergoing IMRT were enrolled as subjects.The VMAT plans were designed according to the clinical dosimetric requirements and the dose calculation was made by the AAA method.For the two plans in each patient,the isocenters were shifted by ±1.0,±3.0,and ±5.0 mm along the original x,y,and z axes to simulate the impacts of positioning errors in left-right (LR),superior-inferior (SI),and anterior-posterior (AP) directions,respectively,on dose distribution.The dose-volume histogram parameters were analyzed in 60 references and 1080 re-calculated plans.Comparison was made by paired t-test.Results When the error was 1 mm,the average deviations of gross tumor volume (GTV) D98,clinical target volume (CTV) D95 and heterogeneity index,and planning gross tumor volume (PGTV) V95 were＜0.5％.When the error was 3 mm,the average dose deviations of GTV and CTV were＜1.0％ and significantly larger in VMAT than in IMRT;the average dose deviation of PGTV was large (GTV D98,P=0.00;CTV D95,P=0.00);the average deviations of PGTVnxV95 and PGTVndV95 were significantly smaller in IMRT than in VMAT (1.64％vs.1.95％,P=0.01;1.73％ vs.2.63％,P=0.00).The deviations of parameters became larger with the increasing positioning error and were significantly larger in VMAT than in IMRT (GTV D98,P=0.00;CTV D95,P=0.00;CTV HI;P=0.00;PGTV V95;P=0.01).Compared with the target volume,Dmax to the spinal cord and brain stem had larger deviations.However,there were no significant differences in Dmax to the spinal cord and brain stem between IMRT and VMAT.Conclusions The IMRT and VMAT plans are both robust when the positioning error is small (＜3 mm).Compared with IMRT,VAMT is more sensitive to the positioning error,mainly in the target volume.The difference between the two plans becomes larger with the increasing positioning error.An increase in the frequency of image-based guidance is recommended for patients undergoing VMAT.
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Objective To perform a systematic review and Meta-analysis on volumetric and dosimetric changes in target volumes and organs at risk (OARs) in adaptive radiotherapy (ART) for patients with head and neck cancer (HNC),and to investigate the role of ART in the treatment of HNC.Methods Literature retrieval was performed to include related studies,and the parameters of primary tumor,GTV-T and GTV-N,parotid volume,D95 and Dmean of target volumes,Dmean of ipsilateral and contralateral parotid volume (I-PG and C-PG),and Dmax of the spinal cord and brainstem.Results A total of 17 studies involving 336 patients were included in the meta-analysis.Primary tumor and parotid volume changed significantly.The volumes of GTV-T,GTV-N,and I-PG were significantly reduced during the 15-20th radiotherapy and after the 20th radiotherapy (P＜0.05),and the C-PG was significantly reduced after the 20th radiotherapy (P=0.004).The analysis of actual dose showed that the D95 and Dmean of primary tumor showed no significant differences,and during the 15-20th radiotherapy,the Dmax of the spinal cord was increased by 2.26 Gy (P=0.000),while the Dmax of the brainstem showed no significant changes before the 20th radiotherapy and was increased by 1.78 Gy after the 25th radiotherapy (P=0.020).In addition,the Dmean of I-PG was increased by 2 Gy during the 20-25th radiotherapy (P =0.0001),and the D of C-PG was increased before the 20th radiotherapy and showed no significant changes after the 25thradiotherapy (P=0.110).The dosimetric analysis of ART showed that the Dmax of the spinal cord and brainstem was reduced significantly (spinal cord:MD =-2.15,95％ CI-3.12 to-1.18,P=0.000;brainstem:MD =-2.20,95％ CI-3.32 to-1.09,P=0.000).The Dmean of I-PG was reduced by about 3.5 Gy,and the sensitivity analysis revealed that the results of Dmean of C-PG were unstable.Conclusions The volumes of primary tumors and parotid glands change significantly,and the actual doses of OARs (Dmax of the spinal cord and brainstem and Dmean of the parotid glands) significantly increase,while the doses of GTV-T and GTV-N show no significant changes.ART can effectively protect the OARs,and patients with locally advanced HNC who receive concurrent chemoradiotherapy can obtain good dose gains from ART plan performed during the 15-20th radiotherapy and at about the 25th radiotherapy.
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MATLAB Image Processing Toolbox (IPT) was used to analyze the filtered images and draw the gray value contrast curve respectively between cancerous and normal regions of liver tissue,and also detect the edge of the cancerous tissue region. Cancerous and normal region of 30 subjects were assessed with gray value curve. The change of cancerous region was significantly higher than the normal one. The gray value curve can effectively quantify the gray information of the image. Quantitative image parameters have an important reference value on the clinical diagnosis of liver cancer.
