Ancient genomes reveal insights into ritual life at Chichén Itzá.

The ancient city of Chichén Itzá in Yucatán, Mexico, was one of the largest and most influential Maya settlements during the Late and Terminal Classic periods (AD 600-1000) and it remains one of the most intensively studied archaeological sites in Mesoamerica1-4. However, many questions about the social and cultural use of its ceremonial spaces, as well as its population's genetic ties to other Mesoamerican groups, remain unanswered2. Here we present genome-wide data obtained from 64 subadult individuals dating to around AD 500-900 that were found in a subterranean mass burial near the Sacred Cenote (sinkhole) in the ceremonial centre of Chichén Itzá. Genetic analyses showed that all analysed individuals were male and several individuals were closely related, including two pairs of monozygotic twins. Twins feature prominently in Mayan and broader Mesoamerican mythology, where they embody qualities of duality among deities and heroes5, but until now they had not been identified in ancient Mayan mortuary contexts. Genetic comparison to present-day people in the region shows genetic continuity with the ancient inhabitants of Chichén Itzá, except at certain genetic loci related to human immunity, including the human leukocyte antigen complex, suggesting signals of adaptation due to infectious diseases introduced to the region during the colonial period.

Extreme mortality during a historical measles outbreak on Rotuma is consistent with measles immunosuppression.

Until the early twentieth century, populations on many Pacific Islands had never experienced measles. As travel to the Pacific Islands by Europeans became more common, the arrival of measles and other pathogens had devastating consequences. In 1911, Rotuma in Fiji was hit by a measles epidemic, which killed 13% of the island population. Detailed records show two mortality peaks, with individuals reported as dying solely from measles in the first and from measles and diarrhoea in the second. Measles is known to disrupt immune system function. Here, we investigate whether the pattern of mortality on Rotuma in 1911 was a consequence of the immunosuppressive effects of measles. We use a compartmental model to simulate measles infection and immunosuppression. Whilst immunosuppressed, we assume that individuals are vulnerable to dysfunctional reactions triggered by either (i) a newly introduced infectious agent arriving at the same time as measles or (ii) microbes already present in the population in a pre-existing equilibrium state. We show that both forms of the immunosuppression model provide a plausible fit to the data and that the inclusion of immunosuppression in the model leads to more realistic estimates of measles epidemiological parameters than when immunosuppression is not included.

The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England.

In late 2020, the JCVI (the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which provides advice to the Department of Health and Social Care, England) made two important recommendations for the initial roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine. The first was that vaccines should be targeted to older and vulnerable people, with the aim of maximally preventing disease rather than infection. The second was to increase the interval between first and second doses from 3 to 12 weeks. Here, we re-examine these recommendations through a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England. We show that targeting the most vulnerable had the biggest immediate impact (compared to targeting younger individuals who may be more responsible for transmission). The 12-week delay was also highly beneficial, estimated to have averted between 32-72 thousand hospital admissions and 4-9 thousand deaths over the first ten months of the campaign (December 2020-September 2021) depending on the assumed interaction between dose interval and efficacy.

The erythrocyte membrane properties of beta thalassaemia heterozygotes and their consequences for Plasmodium falciparum invasion.

Malaria parasites such as Plasmodium falciparum have exerted formidable selective pressures on the human genome. Of the human genetic variants associated with malaria protection, beta thalassaemia (a haemoglobinopathy) was the earliest to be associated with malaria prevalence. However, the malaria protective properties of beta thalassaemic erythrocytes remain unclear. Here we studied the mechanics and surface protein expression of beta thalassaemia heterozygous erythrocytes, measured their susceptibility to P. falciparum invasion, and calculated the energy required for merozoites to invade them. We found invasion-relevant differences in beta thalassaemic cells versus matched controls, specifically: elevated membrane tension, reduced bending modulus, and higher levels of expression of the major invasion receptor basigin. However, these differences acted in opposition to each other with respect to their likely impact on invasion, and overall we did not observe beta thalassaemic cells to have lower P. falciparum invasion efficiency for any of the strains tested.

The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England.

By mid-May 2020, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1 June 2020. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is unclear. Here, we present work from mid-May 2020 that focused on the imminent opening of schools and consider what these results imply for future policy. We compared eight strategies for reopening primary and secondary schools in England. Modifying a transmission model fitted to UK SARS-CoV-2 data, we assessed how reopening schools affects contact patterns, anticipated secondary infections and the relative change in the reproduction number, R. We determined the associated public health impact and its sensitivity to changes in social distancing within the wider community. We predicted that reopening schools with half-sized classes or focused on younger children was unlikely to push R above one. Older children generally have more social contacts, so reopening secondary schools results in more cases than reopening primary schools, while reopening both could have pushed R above one in some regions. Reductions in community social distancing were found to outweigh and exacerbate any impacts of reopening. In particular, opening schools when the reproduction number R is already above one generates the largest increase in cases. Our work indicates that while any school reopening will result in increased mixing and infection amongst children and the wider population, reopening schools alone in June 2020 was unlikely to push R above one. Ultimately, reopening decisions are a difficult trade-off between epidemiological consequences and the emotional, educational and developmental needs of children. Into the future, there are difficult questions about what controls can be instigated such that schools can remain open if cases increase. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies.

Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a "stay at home" order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite period. Government agencies are presently analysing how best to develop an exit strategy from these measures and to determine how the epidemic may progress once measures are lifted. Mathematical models are currently providing short and long term forecasts regarding the future course of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK to support evidence-based policymaking. We present a deterministic, age-structured transmission model that uses real-time data on confirmed cases requiring hospital care and mortality to provide up-to-date predictions on epidemic spread in ten regions of the UK. The model captures a range of age-dependent heterogeneities, reduced transmission from asymptomatic infections and produces a good fit to the key epidemic features over time. We simulated a suite of scenarios to assess the impact of differing approaches to relaxing social distancing measures from 7th May 2020 on the estimated number of patients requiring inpatient and critical care treatment, and deaths. With regard to future epidemic outcomes, we investigated the impact of reducing compliance, ongoing shielding of elder age groups, reapplying stringent social distancing measures using region based triggers and the role of asymptomatic transmission. We find that significant relaxation of social distancing measures from 7th May onwards can lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 disease and the health system being quickly overwhelmed by a sizeable, second epidemic wave. In all considered age-shielding based strategies, we projected serious demand on critical care resources during the course of the pandemic. The reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, results in a long epidemic tail, until the second half of 2021, but ensures that the health service is protected by reintroducing social distancing measures for all individuals in a region when required. Our work confirms the effectiveness of stringent non-pharmaceutical measures in March 2020 to suppress the epidemic. It also provides strong evidence to support the need for a cautious, measured approach to relaxation of lockdown measures, to protect the most vulnerable members of society and support the health service through subduing demand on hospital beds, in particular bed occupancy in intensive care units.

Adaptive immunity selects against malaria infection blocking mutations.

The mutation responsible for Duffy negativity, which impedes Plasmodium vivax infection, has reached high frequencies in certain human populations. Conversely, mutations capable of blocking the more lethal P. falciparum have not succeeded in malarious zones. Here we present an evolutionary-epidemiological model of malaria which demonstrates that if adaptive immunity against the most virulent effects of malaria is gained rapidly by the host, mutations which prevent infection per se are unlikely to succeed. Our results (i) explain the rarity of strain-transcending P. falciparum infection blocking adaptations in humans; (ii) make the surprising prediction that mutations which block P. falciparum infection are most likely to be found in populations experiencing low or infrequent malaria transmission, and (iii) predict that immunity against some of the virulent effects of P. vivax malaria may be built up over the course of many infections.

Detection of neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 to determine population exposure in Scottish blood donors between March and May 2020.

BackgroundThe progression and geographical distribution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the United Kingdom (UK) and elsewhere is unknown because typically only symptomatic individuals are diagnosed. We performed a serological study of blood donors in Scotland in the spring of 2020 to detect neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 as a marker of past infection and epidemic progression.AimOur objective was to determine if sera from blood bank donors can be used to track the emergence and progression of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.MethodsA pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 virus microneutralisation assay was used to detect neutralising antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. The study comprised samples from 3,500 blood donors collected in Scotland between 17 March and 18 May 2020. Controls were collected from 100 donors in Scotland during 2019.ResultsAll samples collected on 17 March 2020 (n = 500) were negative in the pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 virus microneutralisation assay. Neutralising antibodies were detected in six of 500 donors from 23 to 26 March. The number of samples containing neutralising antibodies did not significantly rise after 5-6 April until the end of the study on 18 May. We found that infections were concentrated in certain postcodes, indicating that outbreaks of infection were extremely localised. In contrast, other areas remained comparatively untouched by the epidemic.ConclusionAlthough blood donors are not representative of the overall population, we demonstrated that serosurveys of blood banks can serve as a useful tool for tracking the emergence and progression of an epidemic such as the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

Detecting HLA-infectious disease associations for multi-strain pathogens.

Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) molecules play a vital role helping our immune system to detect the presence of pathogens. Previous work to try and ascertain which HLA alleles offer advantages against particular pathogens has generated inconsistent results. We have constructed an epidemiological model to understand why this may occur. The model captures the epidemiology of a multi strain pathogen for which the host's ability to generate immunological memory responses to particular strains depends on that host's HLA genotype. We find that an HLA allele's ability to protect against infection, as measured in a case control study, depends on the population frequency of that HLA allele. Furthermore, our capability to detect associations between HLA alleles and infection with a multi strain pathogen may be affected by the properties of the pathogen itself (i.e R0 and length of infectious period). Both host and pathogen genetics must be considered in order to identify true HLA associations. However, in the absence of detailed pathogen genetic information, a negative correlation between the frequency of an HLA type and its apparent protectiveness against disease caused by multi strain pathogen is a strong indication that the HLA type in question is well adapted to a subset of strains of that pathogen.

Diversity of HLA Class I and Class II blocks and conserved extended haplotypes in Lacandon Mayans.

Here we studied HLA blocks and haplotypes in a group of 218 Lacandon Maya Native American using a high-resolution next generation sequencing (NGS) method. We assessed the genetic diversity of HLA class I and class II in this population, and determined the most probable ancestry of Lacandon Maya HLA class I and class II haplotypes. Importantly, this Native American group showed a high degree of both HLA homozygosity and linkage disequilibrium across the HLA region and also lower class II HLA allelic diversity than most previously reported populations (including other Native American groups). Distinctive alleles present in the Lacandon population include HLA-A*24:14 and HLA-B*40:08. Furthermore, in Lacandons we observed a high frequency of haplotypes containing the allele HLA-DRB1*04:11, a relatively frequent allele in comparison with other neighboring indigenous groups. The specific demographic history of the Lacandon population including inbreeding, as well as pathogen selection, may have elevated the frequencies of a small number of HLA class II alleles and DNA blocks. To assess the possible role of different selective pressures in determining Native American HLA diversity, we evaluated the relationship between genetic diversity at HLA-A, HLA-B and HLA-DRB1 and pathogen richness for a global dataset and for Native American populations alone. In keeping with previous studies of such relationships we included distance from Africa as a covariate. After correction for multiple comparisons we did not find any significant relationship between pathogen diversity and HLA genetic diversity (as measured by polymorphism information content) in either our global dataset or the Native American subset of the dataset. We found the expected negative relationship between genetic diversity and distance from Africa in the global dataset, but no relationship between HLA genetic diversity and distance from Africa when Native American populations were considered alone.

Estimating the burden of α-thalassaemia in Thailand using a comprehensive prevalence database for Southeast Asia.

Severe forms of α-thalassaemia, haemoglobin H disease and haemoglobin Bart's hydrops fetalis, are an important public health concern in Southeast Asia. Yet information on the prevalence, genetic diversity and health burden of α-thalassaemia in the region remains limited. We compiled a geodatabase of α-thalassaemia prevalence and genetic diversity surveys and, using geostatistical modelling methods, generated the first continuous maps of α-thalassaemia mutations in Thailand and sub-national estimates of the number of newborns with severe forms in 2020. We also summarised the current evidence-base for α-thalassaemia prevalence and diversity for the region. We estimate that 3595 (95% credible interval 1,717-6,199) newborns will be born with severe α-thalassaemia in Thailand in 2020, which is considerably higher than previous estimates. Accurate, fine-scale epidemiological data are necessary to guide sustainable national and regional health policies for α-thalassaemia management. Our maps and newborn estimates are an important first step towards this aim. Editorial note: This article has been through an editorial process in which the authors decide how to respond to the issues raised during peer review. The Reviewing Editor's assessment is that all the issues have been addressed (see decision letter).

Reverse immunodynamics: a new method for identifying targets of protective immunity.

Despite a dramatic increase in our ability to catalogue variation among pathogen genomes, we have made far fewer advances in using this information to identify targets of protective immunity. Epidemiological models predict that strong immune selection can cause antigenic variants to structure into genetically discordant sets of antigenic types (e.g. serotypes). A corollary of this theory is that targets of immunity may be identified by searching for non-overlapping associations of amino acids among co-circulating antigenic variants. We propose a novel population genetics methodology that combines such predictions with phylogenetic analyses to identify genetic loci (epitopes) under strong immune selection. We apply this concept to the AMA-1 protein of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum and find evidence of epitopes among certain regions of low variability which could render them ideal vaccine candidates. The proposed method can be applied to a myriad of multi-strain pathogens for which vast amounts of genetic data has been collected in recent years.

The spatial epidemiology of sickle-cell anaemia in India.

Sickle-cell anaemia (SCA) is a neglected chronic disorder of increasing global health importance, with India estimated to have the second highest burden of the disease. In the country, SCA is particularly prevalent in scheduled populations, which comprise the most socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. We compiled a geodatabase of a substantial number of SCA surveys carried out in India over the last decade. Using generalised additive models and bootstrapping methods, we generated the first India-specific model-based map of sickle-cell allele frequency which accounts for the district-level distribution of scheduled and non-scheduled populations. Where possible, we derived state- and district-level estimates of the number of SCA newborns in 2020 in the two groups. Through the inclusion of an additional 158 data points and 1.3 million individuals, we considerably increased the amount of data in our mapping evidence-base compared to previous studies. Highest predicted frequencies of up to 10% spanned central India, whilst a hotspot of ~12% was observed in Jammu and Kashmir. Evidence was heavily biased towards scheduled populations and remained limited for non-scheduled populations, which can lead to considerable uncertainties in newborn estimates at national and state level. This has important implications for health policy and planning. By taking population composition into account, we have generated maps and estimates that better reflect the complex epidemiology of SCA in India and in turn provide more reliable estimates of its burden in the vast country. This work was supported by European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7//2007-2013)/European Research Council [268904 - DIVERSITY]; and the Newton-Bhabha Fund [227756052 to CH].

Detecting signatures of past pathogen selection on human HLA loci: are there needles in the haystack?

Human leucocyte antigens (HLAs) are responsible for the display of peptide fragments for recognition by T-cell receptors. The gene family encoding them is thus integral to human adaptive immunity, and likely to be under strong pathogen selection. Despite this, it has proved difficult to demonstrate specific examples of pathogen-HLA coevolution. Selection from multiple pathogens simultaneously could explain why the evolutionary signatures of particular pathogens on HLAs have proved elusive. Here, we present an individual-based model of HLA evolution in the presence of two mortality-causing pathogens. We demonstrate that it is likely that individual pathogen species causing high mortality have left recognizable signatures on the HLA genomic region, despite more than one pathogen being present. Such signatures are likely to exist at the whole-population level, and involve haplotypic combinations of HLA genes rather than single loci.

Kenny mediates selective autophagic degradation of the IKK complex to control innate immune responses.

Selective autophagy is a catabolic process with which cellular material is specifically targeted for degradation by lysosomes. The function of selective autophagic degradation of self-components in the regulation of innate immunity is still unclear. Here we show that Drosophila Kenny, the homolog of mammalian IKKγ, is a selective autophagy receptor that mediates the degradation of the IκB kinase complex. Selective autophagic degradation of the IκB kinase complex prevents constitutive activation of the immune deficiency pathway in response to commensal microbiota. We show that autophagy-deficient flies have a systemic innate immune response that promotes a hyperplasia phenotype in the midgut. Remarkably, human IKKγ does not interact with mammalian Atg8-family proteins. Using a mathematical model, we suggest mechanisms by which pathogen selection might have driven the loss of LIR motif functionality during evolution. Our results suggest that there may have been an autophagy-related switch during the evolution of the IKKγ proteins in metazoans.

Reproduction, infection and killer-cell immunoglobulin-like receptor haplotype evolution.

Killer-cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) are encoded by one of the most polymorphic families in the human genome. KIRs are expressed on natural killer (NK) cells, which have dual roles: (1) in fighting infection and (2) in reproduction, regulating hemochorial placentation. Uniquely among primates, human KIR genes are arranged into two haplotypic combinations: KIR A and KIR B. It has been proposed that KIR A is specialized to fight infection, whilst KIR B evolved to help ensure successful reproduction. Here we demonstrate that a combination of infectious disease selection and reproductive selection can drive the evolution of KIR B-like haplotypes from a KIR A-like founder haplotype. Continued selection to survive and to reproduce maintains a balance between KIR A and KIR B.

Sickle haemoglobin, haemoglobin C and malaria mortality feedbacks.

BACKGROUND: Sickle haemoglobin (HbS) and haemoglobin C (HbC) are both caused by point mutations in the beta globin gene, and both offer substantial malaria protection. Despite the fact that the blood disorder caused by homozygosity for HbC is much less severe than that caused by homozygosity for HbS (sickle cell anaemia), it is the sickle mutation which has come to dominate many old-world malarious regions, whilst HbC is highly restricted in its geographical distribution. It has been suggested that this discrepancy may be due to sickle cell heterozygotes enjoying a higher level of malaria protection than heterozygotes for HbC. A higher fitness of sickle cell heterozygotes relative to HbC heterozygotes could certainly have allowed the sickle cell allele to spread more rapidly. However, observations that carrying either HbC or HbS enhances an individual's capacity to transmit malaria parasites to mosquitoes could also shed light on this conundrum. METHODS: A population genetic model was used to investigate the evolutionary consequences of the strength of malaria selection being correlated with either HbS frequency or HbC frequency. RESULTS: If the selection pressure from malaria is positively correlated with the frequency of either HbS or HbC, it is easier for HbS to succeed in the competitive interaction between the two alleles. CONCLUSIONS: A feedback process whereby the presence of variant haemoglobins increases the level of malaria selection in a population could have contributed to the global success of HbS relative to HbC, despite the former's higher blood disorder cost.

Understanding the contrasting spatial haplotype patterns of malaria-protective ß-globin polymorphisms.

The malaria-protective ß-globin polymorphisms, sickle-cell (ß(S)) and ß(0)-thalassaemia, are canonical examples of human adaptation to infectious disease. Occurring on distinct genetic backgrounds, they vary markedly in their patterns of linked genetic variation at the population level, suggesting different evolutionary histories. ß(S) is associated with five classical restriction fragment length polymorphism haplotypes that exhibit remarkable specificity in their geographical distributions; by contrast, ß(0)-thalassaemia mutations are found on haplotypes whose distributions overlap considerably. Here, we explore why these two polymorphisms display contrasting spatial haplotypic distributions, despite having malaria as a common selective pressure. We present a meta-population genetic model, incorporating individual-based processes, which tracks the evolution of ß-globin polymorphisms on different haplotypic backgrounds. Our simulations reveal that, depending on the rate of mutation, a large population size and/or high population growth rate are required for both the ß(S)- and the ß(0)-thalassaemia-like patterns. However, whilst the ß(S)-like pattern is more likely when population subdivision is high, migration low and long-distance migration absent, the opposite is true for ß(0)-thalassaemia. Including gene conversion has little effect on the overall probability of each pattern; however, when inter-haplotype fitness variation exists, gene conversion is more likely to have contributed to the diversity of haplotypes actually present in the population. Our findings highlight how the contrasting spatial haplotype patterns exhibited by ß(S) and ß(0)-thalassaemia may provide important indications as to the evolution of these adaptive alleles and the demographic history of the populations in which they have evolved.

Vaccination Drives Changes in Metabolic and Virulence Profiles of Streptococcus pneumoniae.

The bacterial pathogen, Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus), is a leading cause of life-threatening illness and death worldwide. Available conjugate vaccines target only a small subset (up to 13) of >90 known capsular serotypes of S. pneumoniae and, since their introduction, increases in non-vaccine serotypes have been recorded in several countries: a phenomenon termed Vaccine Induced Serotype Replacement (VISR). Here, using a combination of mathematical modelling and whole genome analysis, we show that targeting particular serotypes through vaccination can also cause their metabolic and virulence-associated components to transfer through recombination to non-vaccine serotypes: a phenomenon we term Vaccine-Induced Metabolic Shift (VIMS). Our results provide a novel explanation for changes observed in the population structure of the pneumococcus following vaccination, and have important implications for strain-targeted vaccination in a range of infectious disease systems.

Epistasis and the sensitivity of phenotypic screens for beta thalassaemia.

Genetic disorders of haemoglobin, particularly the sickle cell diseases and the alpha and beta thalassaemias, are the commonest inherited disorders worldwide. The majority of affected births occur in low-income and lower-middle income countries. Screening programmes are a vital tool to counter these haemoglobinopathies by: (i) identifying individual carriers and allowing them to make informed reproductive choices, and (ii) generating population level gene-frequency estimates, to help ensure the optimal allocation of public health resources. For both of these functions it is vital that the screen performed is suitably sensitive. One popular first-stage screening option to detect carriers of beta thalassaemia in low-income countries is the One Tube Osmotic Fragility Test (OTOFT). Here we introduce a population genetic framework within which to quantify the likely sensitivity and specificity of the OTOFT in different epidemiological contexts. We demonstrate that interactions between the carrier states for beta thalassaemia and alpha thalassaemia, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency and Southeast Asian Ovalocytosis have the potential to reduce the sensitivity of OTOFTs for beta thalassaemia heterozygosity to below 70%. Our results therefore caution against the widespread application of OTOFTs in regions where these erythrocyte variants co-occur.