Seroprevalence of Protective Antibodies Against Influenza and the Reduction of the Influenza Incidence Rate: An Annual Repeated Cross-Sectional Study From 2014 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Seroepidemiological studies provide estimates of population-level immunity, prevalence/incidence of infections, and evaluation of vaccination programs. We assessed the seroprevalence of protective antibodies against influenza and evaluated the correlation of seroprevalence with the cumulative annual influenza incidence rate. METHODS: We conducted an annual repeated cross-sectional seroepidemiological survey, during June-August, from 2014 to 2019, in Portugal. A total of 4326 sera from all age groups, sex, and regions was tested by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Seroprevalence and geometric mean titers (GMT) of protective antibodies against influenza were assessed by age group, sex, and vaccine status (65+ years old). The association between summer annual seroprevalence and the difference of influenza incidence rates between one season and the previous one was measured by Pearson correlation coefficient (r). RESULTS: Significant differences in seroprevalence of protective antibodies against influenza were observed in the population. Higher seroprevalence and GMT for A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) were observed in children (5-14); influenza B seroprevalence in adults 65+ was 1.6-4.4 times than in children (0-4). Vaccinated participants (65+) showed significant higher seroprevalence/GMT for influenza. A strong negative and significant correlation was found between seroprevalence and ILI incidence rate for A(H1N1)pdm09 in children between 5 and 14 (r = -0.84; 95% CI, -0.98 to -0.07); a weak negative correlation was observed for A(H3N2) and B/Yamagata (r ≤ -0.1). CONCLUSIONS: The study provides new insight into the anti-influenza antibodies seroprevalence measured in summer on the ILI incidence rate in the next season and the need for adjusted preventive health care measures to prevent influenza infection and transmission.

Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.

Fluctuating risk of acute kidney injury-related mortality for four weeks after exposure to air pollution: A multi-country time-series study in 6 countries.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported that air pollution is related to kidney diseases. However, the global evidence on the risk of death from acute kidney injury (AKI) owing to air pollution is limited. Therefore, we investigated the association between short-term exposure to air pollution-particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-and AKI-related mortality using a multi-country dataset. METHODS: This study included 41,379 AKI-related deaths in 136 locations in six countries during 1987-2018. A novel case time-series design was applied to each air pollutant during 0-28 lag days to estimate the association between air pollution and AKI-related deaths. Moreover, we calculated AKI deaths attributable to non-compliance with the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines. RESULTS: The relative risks (95% confidence interval) of AKI-related deaths are 1.052 (1.003, 1.103), 1.022 (0.994, 1.050), and 1.022 (0.982, 1.063) for 5, 10, and 10 µg/m3 increase in lag 0-28 days of PM2.5, warm-season O3, and NO2, respectively. The lag-distributed association showed that the risk appeared immediately on the day of exposure to air pollution, gradually decreased, and then increased again reaching the peak approximately 20 days after exposure to PM2.5 and O3. We also found that 1.9%, 6.3%, and 5.2% of AKI deaths were attributed to PM2.5, warm-season O3, and NO2 concentrations above the WHO guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that public health policies to reduce air pollution may alleviate the burden of death from AKI and suggests the need to investigate the several pathways between air pollution and AKI death.

Coarse Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality: A Global Study in 205 Cities.

Rationale: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality are not fully understood on a global scale. Objectives: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide. Methods: We collected daily mortality (total, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and air pollution data from 205 cities in 20 countries/regions. Concentrations of PM2.5-10 were computed as the difference between inhalable and fine PM. A two-stage time-series analytic approach was applied, with overdispersed generalized linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. We fitted two-pollutant models to test the independent effect of PM2.5-10 from copollutants (fine PM, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Exposure-response relationship curves were pooled, and regional analyses were conducted. Measurements and Main Results: A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5-10 concentration on lag 0-1 day was associated with increments of 0.51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18%-0.84%), 0.43% (95% CI, 0.15%-0.71%), and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.06%-0.77%) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations varied by country and region. These associations were robust to adjustment by all copollutants in two-pollutant models, especially for PM2.5. The exposure-response curves for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were positive, with steeper slopes at lower exposure ranges and without discernible thresholds. Conclusions: This study provides novel global evidence on the robust and independent associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting the need to establish a unique guideline or regulatory limit for daily concentrations of PM2.5-10.

Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of influenza-associated mortality are important for national and international decision making on public health priorities. Previous estimates of 250 000-500 000 annual influenza deaths are outdated. We updated the estimated number of global annual influenza-associated respiratory deaths using country-specific influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates from 1999-2015. METHODS: We estimated country-specific influenza-associated respiratory excess mortality rates (EMR) for 33 countries using time series log-linear regression models with vital death records and influenza surveillance data. To extrapolate estimates to countries without data, we divided countries into three analytic divisions for three age groups (<65 years, 65-74 years, and ≥75 years) using WHO Global Health Estimate (GHE) respiratory infection mortality rates. We calculated mortality rate ratios (MRR) to account for differences in risk of influenza death across countries by comparing GHE respiratory infection mortality rates from countries without EMR estimates with those with estimates. To calculate death estimates for individual countries within each age-specific analytic division, we multiplied randomly selected mean annual EMRs by the country's MRR and population. Global 95% credible interval (CrI) estimates were obtained from the posterior distribution of the sum of country-specific estimates to represent the range of possible influenza-associated deaths in a season or year. We calculated influenza-associated deaths for children younger than 5 years for 92 countries with high rates of mortality due to respiratory infection using the same methods. FINDINGS: EMR-contributing countries represented 57% of the global population. The estimated mean annual influenza-associated respiratory EMR ranged from 0·1 to 6·4 per 100 000 individuals for people younger than 65 years, 2·9 to 44·0 per 100 000 individuals for people aged between 65 and 74 years, and 17·9 to 223·5 per 100 000 for people older than 75 years. We estimated that 291 243-645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0-8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually. The highest mortality rates were estimated in sub-Saharan Africa (2·8-16·5 per 100 000 individuals), southeast Asia (3·5-9·2 per 100 000 individuals), and among people aged 75 years or older (51·3-99·4 per 100 000 individuals). For 92 countries, we estimated that among children younger than 5 years, 9243-105 690 influenza-associated respiratory deaths occur annually. INTERPRETATION: These global influenza-associated respiratory mortality estimates are higher than previously reported, suggesting that previous estimates might have underestimated disease burden. The contribution of non-respiratory causes of death to global influenza-associated mortality should be investigated. FUNDING: None.

Cross-protection to new drifted influenza A(H3) viruses and prevalence of protective antibodies to seasonal influenza, during 2014 in Portugal.

INTRODUCTION: Immune profile for influenza viruses is highly changeable over time. Serological studies can assess the prevalence of influenza, estimate the risk of infection, highlight asymptomatic infection rate and can also provide data on vaccine coverage. The aims of the study were to evaluate pre-existing cross-protection against influenza A(H3) drift viruses and to assess influenza immunity in the Portuguese population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed a cross-sectional study based on a convenience sample of 626 sera collected during June 2014, covering all age groups, both gender and all administrative health regions of Portugal. Sera antibody titers for seasonal and new A(H3) drift influenza virus were evaluated by hemagglutination inhibition assay (HI). Seroprevalence to each seasonal influenza vaccine strain virus and to the new A(H3) drift circulating strain was estimated by age group, gender and region and compared with seasonal influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence rates before and after the study period. RESULTS: Our findings suggest that seroprevalences of influenza A(H3) (39.9%; 95% CI: 36.2-43.8) and A(H1)pdm09 (29.7%; 95% CI: 26.3-33.4) antibodies were higher than for influenza B, in line with high ILI incidence rates for A(H3) followed by A(H1)pdm09, during 2013/2014 season. Low pre-existing cross-protection against new A(H3) drift viruses were observed in A(H3) seropositive individuals (46%). Both against influenza A(H1)pdm09 and A(H3) seroprotection was highest in younger than 14-years old. Protective antibodies against influenza B were highest in those older than 65years old, especially for B/Yamagata lineage, 33.3% (95% CI: 25.7-41.9). Women showed a high seroprevalence to influenza, although without statistical significance, when compared to men. A significant decreasing trend in seroprotection from north to south regions of Portugal mainland was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Our results emphasize that low seroprotection increases the risk of influenza infection in the following winter season. Seroepidemiological studies can inform policy makers on the need for vaccination and additional preventive measures.