Effects of simulated sample sizes on mortality estimates-Protocol for a study in 3 randomised ICU trials.

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of trials are stopped earlier than originally planned. It has been suggested that trials stopped pre-maturely overestimate the treatment effect. With the outlined observational study, we aim to simulate the results of stopping trials before they reach their planned sample size to assess the effects on mortality estimates. METHODS AND STATISTICS: Based on 3 international, randomised clinical trials (RCTs) in critical care: Scandinavian Starch for Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock (6S) trial, the Transfusion Requirements in Septic Shock (TRISS) trial and the Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit (SUP-ICU) trial, we will estimate relative risks with 95% confidence intervals for the primary outcome 90-day mortality after the inclusion of each individual patient in each RCT. This will be presented graphically with the primary outcome as a function of the number of included patients. DISCUSSION: The outlined study will provide important knowledge about the effects of stopping critical care trials early. This may have important implications for patients, relatives, clinicians, researchers, guideline committee members and policy makers. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We will use data from consenting patients enrolled in RCTs approved by the relevant ethical committees; this study requires no further permissions. We will report the results in accordance with the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement and submit the final approved manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal.

Intensive care doctors' preferences for arterial oxygen tension levels in mechanically ventilated patients.

BACKGROUND: Oxygen is liberally administered in intensive care units (ICUs). Nevertheless, ICU doctors' preferences for supplementing oxygen are inadequately described. The aim was to identify ICU doctors' preferences for arterial oxygenation levels in mechanically ventilated adult ICU patients. METHODS: In April to August 2016, an online multiple-choice 17-part-questionnaire was distributed to 1080 ICU doctors in seven Northern European countries. Repeated reminder e-mails were sent. The study ended in October 2016. RESULTS: The response rate was 63%. When evaluating oxygenation 52% of respondents rated arterial oxygen tension (PaO2 ) the most important parameter; 24% a combination of PaO2 and arterial oxygen saturation (SaO2 ); and 23% preferred SaO2 . Increasing, decreasing or not changing a default fraction of inspired oxygen of 0.50 showed preferences for a PaO2 around 8 kPa in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, a PaO2 around 10 kPa in patients with healthy lungs, acute respiratory distress syndrome or sepsis, and a PaO2 around 12 kPa in patients with cardiac or cerebral ischaemia. Eighty per cent would accept a PaO2 of 8 kPa or lower and 77% would accept a PaO2 of 12 kPa or higher in a clinical trial of oxygenation targets. CONCLUSION: Intensive care unit doctors preferred PaO2 to SaO2 in monitoring oxygen treatment when peripheral oxygen saturation was not included in the question. The identification of PaO2 as the preferred target and the thorough clarification of preferences are important when ascertaining optimal oxygenation targets. In particular when designing future clinical trials of higher vs lower oxygenation targets in ICU patients.

Timing of onset of gastrointestinal bleeding in the ICU: Protocol for a preplanned observational study.

BACKGROUND: Critically ill patients are at risk of gastrointestinal bleeding, but clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding is rare. The majority of intensive care unit (ICU) patients receive stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP), despite uncertainty concerning the balance between benefit and harm. For approximately half of ICU patients with gastrointestinal bleeding, onset is early, ie within the first two days of the ICU stay. The aetiology of gastrointestinal bleeding and consequently the balance between benefit and harm of SUP may differ between patients with early vs late gastrointestinal bleeding. METHODS: This is a protocol and statistical analysis plan for a preplanned exploratory substudy of the Stress Ulcer Prophylaxis in the Intensive Care Unit (SUP-ICU) randomized clinical trial, comparing intravenous pantoprazole (40 mg once daily) with placebo in 3350 acutely ill adult ICU patients. We will describe baseline characteristics and assess the time to onset of the first clinically important episode of GI bleeding accounting for survival status and allocation to SUP or placebo. In addition, we will describe differences in therapeutic and diagnostic procedures used in patients with clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding according to early vs late bleeding and 90-day vital status. CONCLUSIONS: The study outlined in this protocol will provide detailed information on patient characteristics and the timing of onset of gastrointestinal bleeding in the patients enrolled in the SUP-ICU trial. This may provide additional knowledge and incentives for future studies on which patients benefit from SUP.

Corticosteroids and risk of gastrointestinal bleeding in critically ill adults: Protocol for a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Corticosteroids are frequently prescribed to critically ill patients. However, their use may increase the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, which is associated with morbidity and mortality. Accordingly, we aim to assess whether continued administration of corticosteroids for >24 hours increases the rate of GI bleeding in adult critically ill patients compared to placebo or no treatment. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a systematic review of randomized clinical trials with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis. The participants will be adult (as defined in the included trials) critically ill patients. The intervention will be any corticosteroid administered systematically for >24 hours and the comparator will be placebo or no treatment. The primary outcome will be rate of clinically important GI bleeding. We will systematically search EMBASE, MEDLINE, Medline In-Process, Cochrane Library, Epistemonikos and trial registries for relevant literature, as well as perform a hand search. We will follow the recommendations by the Cochrane Collaboration and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. The risk of systematic errors (bias) and random errors will be assessed and the overall quality of evidence will be evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. DISCUSSION: The risk of GI bleeding in adult critically ill patients treated with corticosteroids is unknown. Hence, there is need for a robust systematic review to assess this risk and provide clinicians with a clearer understanding of the strength and limitations of existing data.

Oxygen supplementation for critically ill patients-A protocol for a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: In critically ill patients, hypoxaemia is a common clinical manifestation of inadequate gas exchange in the lungs. Supplemental oxygen is therefore given to all critically ill patients. This can result in hyperoxaemia, and some observational studies have identified harms with hyperoxia. The objective of this systematic review is to critically assess the evidence of randomised clinical trials on the effects of higher versus lower inspiratory oxygen fractions or targets of arterial oxygenation in critically ill adult patients. METHODS: We will search for randomised clinical trials in major international databases. Two authors will independently screen and select references for inclusion using Covidence, extract data and assess the methodological quality of the included randomised clinical trials using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Any disagreement will be resolved by consensus. We will analyse the extracted data using Review Manager and Trial Sequential Analysis. To assess the quality of the evidence, we will create a 'Summary of Findings' table containing our primary and secondary outcomes using the GRADE assessment. DISCUSSION: Supplemental oxygen administration is widely recommended in international guidelines despite lack of robust evidence of its effectiveness. To our knowledge, no systematic review of randomised clinical trials has investigated the effects of oxygen supplementation in critically ill patients. This systematic review will provide reliable evidence to better inform future trialists and decision-makers on clinical practice on supplemental oxygen administration in critically ill patients.

Forced fluid removal in intensive care patients with acute kidney injury: The randomised FFAKI feasibility trial.

BACKGROUND: Accumulation of fluids is frequent in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with acute kidney injury and may be associated with increased mortality and decreased renal recovery. We present the results of a pilot trial assessing the feasibility of forced fluid removal in ICU patients with acute kidney injury and fluid accumulation of more than 10% ideal bodyweight. METHODS: The FFAKI-trial was a pilot trial of forced fluid removal vs standard care in adult ICU patients with moderate to high risk acute kidney injury and 10% fluid accumulation. Fluid removal was done with furosemide and/or continuous renal replacement therapy aiming at net negative fluid balance > 1 mL/kg ideal body weight/hour until cumulative fluid balance calculated from ICU admission reached less than 1000 mL. RESULTS: After 20 months, we stopped the trial prematurely due to a low inclusion rate with 23 (2%) included patients out of the 1144 screened. Despite the reduced sample size, we observed a marked reduction in cumulative fluid balance 5 days after randomisation (mean difference -5814 mL, 95% CI -2063 to -9565, P = .003) with forced fluid removal compared to standard care. While the trial was underpowered for clinical endpoints, no point estimates suggested harm from forced fluid removal. CONCLUSIONS: Forced fluid removal aiming at 1 mL/kg ideal body weight/hour may be an effective treatment of fluid accumulation in ICU patients with acute kidney injury. A definitive trial using our inclusion criteria seems less feasible based on our inclusion rate of only 2%.

Fluid therapy in neurointensive care patients: ESICM consensus and clinical practice recommendations

Objective To report the ESICM consensus and clinical practice recommendations on fluid therapy in neurointensive care patients. Design A consensus committee comprising 22 international experts met in October 2016 during ESICM LIVES2016. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussions between the members of the committee subsequently served to discuss and develop the consensus process. Methods Population, intervention, comparison, and outcomes (PICO) questions were reviewed and updated as needed, and evidence profiles generated. The consensus focused on three main topics: (1) general fluid resuscitation and maintenance in neurointensive care patients, (2) hyperosmolar fluids for intracranial pressure control, (3) fluid management in delayed cerebral ischemia after subarachnoid haemorrhage. After an extensive literature search, the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system were applied to assess the quality of evidence (from high to very low), to formulate treatment recommendations as strong or weak, and to issue best practice statements when applicable. A modified Delphi process based on the integration of evidence provided by the literature and expert opinions­using a sequential approach to avoid biases and misinterpretations­was used to generate the final consensus statement. Results The final consensus comprises a total of 32 statements, including 13 strong recommendations and 17 weak recommendations. No recommendations were provided for two statements. Conclusions We present a consensus statement and clinical practice recommendations on fluid therapy for neurointensive care patients.

Stress ulcer prophylaxis in adult intensive care unit patients - a protocol for a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: In the intensive care unit (ICU), stress ulcer prophylaxis with proton pump inhibitors or histamine-2-receptor antagonists is standard of care although gastrointestinal bleeding remains uncommon. It remains unknown whether its use is associated with benefits or harms and the quality of evidence supporting the use of stress ulcer prophylaxis has been questioned. Accordingly, the objective of this systematic review was to critically assess the evidence from randomized clinical trials on the benefits and harms of stress ulcer prophylaxis vs. placebo or no prophylaxis in adult ICU patients. METHODS: We will systematically search for randomized clinical trials in major international databases. Two authors will independently screen and select trials for inclusion, extract data and assess the methodological quality using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Any disagreement will be resolved by consensus. We will perform conventional meta-analyses using Review Manager, and STATA 15, and we will assess the risk of random errors using Trial Sequential Analysis. Also, we will assess and report the overall quality of evidence for all outcomes according to GRADE. DISCUSSION: The evidence on the benefits and harms of stress ulcer prophylaxis in adult ICU patients is unclear and an updated systematic review is warranted as new trials have been published. To control risks of systematic and random errors, we will use Cochrane and GRADE methodology and Trial Sequential Analysis. Our ambition with this systematic review is to provide updated, reliable and precise data to better inform decision makers on the use of stress ulcer prophylaxis in adult ICU patients.

Fluid accumulation during acute kidney injury in the intensive care unit.

INTRODUCTION: Fluid therapy is a ubiquitous intervention in patients admitted to the intensive care unit, but positive fluid balance may be associated with poor outcomes and particular in patients with acute kidney injury. Studies describing this have defined fluid overload either at specific time points or considered patients with a positive mean daily fluid balance as fluid overloaded. We wished to detail this further and performed joint model analyses of the association between daily fluid balance and outcome represented by mortality and renal recovery in patients admitted with acute kidney injury. METHOD: We did a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to the intensive care unit with acute kidney injury during a 2-year observation period. We used serum creatinine measurements to identify patients with acute kidney injury and collected sequential daily fluid balance during the first 5 days of admission to the intensive care unit. We used joint modelling techniques to correlate the development of fluid overload with survival and renal recovery adjusted for age, gender and disease severity. RESULTS: The cohort contained 863 patients with acute kidney injury of whom 460 (53%) and 254 (29%) developed 5% and 10% fluid overload, respectively. We found that both 5% and 10% fluid overload was correlated with reduced survival and renal recovery. CONCLUSION: Joint model analyses of fluid accumulation in patients admitted to the intensive care unit with acute kidney injury confirm that even a modest degree of fluid overload (5%) may be negatively associated with both survival and renal recovery.

Empirical metronidazole for patients with severe bacterial infection: protocol for a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Anaerobic bacteria are believed to be common pathogens in severe infections. Yet, they are difficult to culture and consequently often unrecognised in clinical infections. Metronidazole is often used empirically for potential anaerobic infections, as the resistance to metronidazole is low. However, disadvantages of metronidazole use exist, including drug interactions, side effects and economical expenses. Currently, the balance between the benefits and harms of empirical metronidazole for severe bacterial infections is unknown. We aim to assess patient-important benefits and harms of empirical metronidazole vs. placebo or no treatment in adult patients with severe bacterial infection of any origin in a systematic review of randomised clinical trials with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol provides details on the planned systematic review, which will be prepared according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement, the Cochrane Handbook, and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes include adverse events, secondary infections, use of life support, antibiotic resistance and hospital length of stay. We will conduct conventional meta-analyses, including predefined subgroup- and sensitivity analyses. Additionally, we will assess the risk of random errors by trial sequential analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not needed, as the outlined review exclusively will include previously published data. We aim to publish in an international, peer-reviewed journal.

Scandinavian SSAI clinical practice guideline on choice of inotropic agent for patients with acute circulatory failure.

BACKGROUND: Adult critically ill patients often suffer from acute circulatory failure and those with low cardiac output may be treated with inotropic agents. The aim of this Scandinavian Society of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine guideline was to present patient-important treatment recommendations on this topic. METHODS: This guideline was developed according to GRADE. We assessed the following subpopulations of patients with shock: (1) shock in general, (2) septic shock, (3) cardiogenic shock, (4) hypovolemic shock, (5) shock after cardiac surgery, and (6) other types of shock, including vasodilatory shock. We assessed patient-important outcome measures, including mortality and serious adverse reactions. RESULTS: For all patients, we suggest against the routine use of any inotropic agent, including dobutamine, as compared to placebo/no treatment (very low quality of evidence). For patients with shock in general, and in those with septic and other types of shock, we suggest using dobutamine rather than levosimendan or epinephrine (very low quality of evidence). For patients with cardiogenic shock and in those with shock after cardiac surgery, we suggest using dobutamine rather than milrinone (very low quality of evidence). For the other clinical questions, we refrained from giving any recommendations or suggestions. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest against the routine use of any inotropic agent in adult patients with shock. If used, we suggest using dobutamine rather than other inotropic agents for the majority of patients, however, the quality of evidence was very low, implying high uncertainty on the balance between the benefits and harms of inotropic agents.

Haloperidol for delirium in critically ill patients - protocol for a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: In the intensive care unit, the prevalence of delirium is high. Delirium has been associated with morbidity and mortality including more ventilator days, longer intensive care unit stay, increased long-term mortality, and cognitive impairment. Thus, the burden of delirium for patients, relatives, and societies is considerable. The objective of this systematic review was to critically access the evidence of randomised clinical trials on the effects of haloperidol vs. placebo or any other agents for delirium in critically ill patients. METHODS: We will search for randomised clinical trials in the following databases: Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index, BIOSIS, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature, and Allied and Complementary Medicine Database. Two authors will independently screen and select references for inclusion using Covidence, extract data and assess the methodological quality of the included randomised clinical trials using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Any disagreement will be resolved by consensus. We will analyse the extracted data using Review Manager, STATA 15, and Trial Sequential. ANALYSIS: The aim of this study was to assess the quality of the evidence, we will create a 'Summary of Findings' table containing our primary and secondary outcomes using the GRADE assessment. DISCUSSION: Our ambition with this systematic review is to provide reliable and powered evidence to better inform decision makers on the use of or future trials with haloperidol for the management of delirium in critically ill patients.

Changes in colloid solution sales in Nordic countries.

BACKGROUND: Administration of resuscitation fluid is a common intervention in the treatment of critically ill patients, but the right choice of fluid is still a matter of debate. Changes in medical practice are based on new evidence and guidelines as well as traditions and personal preferences. Official warnings against the use of hydroxyl-ethyl-starch (HES) solutions have been issued. Nordic guidelines have issued several strong recommendations favouring crystalloids over colloids in all patient groups. Our objective was to describe the patterns of colloid use in Nordic countries from 2012 to 2016. METHODS: The data were obtained from companies that provide pharmaceutical statistics in different countries. The data are sales figures from pharmaceutical companies to pharmacies and health institutions. RESULTS: We found a 56% reduction in the total sales of all colloids in Nordic countries over a 5-year period. These findings were mainly related to a 92% reduction in the sales of HES solutions. A reduction in sales of other synthetic colloids has also occurred. During the same period, we found a 46% increase in albumin sales, but these numbers varied between Nordic countries. CONCLUSION: The general reduction in colloid sales likely reflects the recommendation that colloids should be used only in special circumstances. The dramatic reduction in the sales of HES solutions was expected given evidence of harm and the official warnings. The steady increase in albumin sales and the notable differences between the five Nordic countries cannot be explained.

Development and internal validation of the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU).

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU) mortality prediction scores deteriorate over time, and their complexity decreases clinical applicability and commonly causes problems with missing data. We aimed to develop and internally validate a new and simple score that predicts 90-day mortality in adults upon acute admission to the ICU: the Simplified Mortality Score for the Intensive Care Unit (SMS-ICU). METHODS: We used data from an international cohort of 2139 patients acutely admitted to the ICU and 1947 ICU patients with severe sepsis/septic shock from 2009 to 2016. We performed multiple imputations for missing data and used binary logistic regression analysis with variable selection by backward elimination, followed by conversion to a simple point-based score. We assessed the apparent performance and validated the score internally using bootstrapping to present optimism-corrected performance estimates. RESULTS: The SMS-ICU comprises seven variables available in 99.5% of the patients: two numeric variables: age and lowest systolic blood pressure, and five dichotomous variables: haematologic malignancy/metastatic cancer, acute surgical admission and use of vasopressors/inotropes, respiratory support and renal replacement therapy. Discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71-0.74), overall performance (Nagelkerke's R2 ) was 0.19 and calibration (intercept and slope) was 0.00 and 0.99, respectively. Optimism-corrected performance was similar to apparent performance. CONCLUSIONS: The SMS-ICU predicted 90-day mortality with reasonable and stable performance. If performance remains adequate after external validation, the SMS-ICU could prove a valuable tool for ICU clinicians and researchers because of its simplicity and expected very low number of missing values.