Characterization of the genomic sequence of a circo-like virus and of three chaphamaparvoviruses detected in mute swan (Cygnus olor).

We report the complete genomes of four ssDNA viruses: a circular replication-associated protein-encoding single-stranded DNA virus belonging to a clade previously detected only in mammals, and three chaphamaparvoviruses, which were detected by viromic surveillance of mute swan (Cygnus olor) fecal samples from the United Kingdom.

Genetic diversity, recombination and cross-species transmission of a waterbird gammacoronavirus in the wild.

Viruses emerging from wildlife can cause outbreaks in humans and domesticated animals. Predicting the emergence of future pathogens and mitigating their impacts requires an understanding of what shapes virus diversity and dynamics in wildlife reservoirs. In order to better understand coronavirus ecology in wild species, we sampled birds within a coastal freshwater lagoon habitat across 5 years, focussing on a large population of mute swans (Cygnus olor) and the diverse species that they interact with. We discovered and characterised the full genome of a divergent gammacoronavirus belonging to the Goose coronavirus CB17 species. We investigated the genetic diversity and dynamics of this gammacoronavirus using untargeted metagenomic sequencing of 223 faecal samples from swans of known age and sex, and RT-PCR screening of 1632 additional bird samples. The virus circulated persistently within the bird community; virus prevalence in mute swans exhibited seasonal variations, but did not change with swan age-class or epidemiological year. One whole genome was fully characterised, and revealed that the virus originated from a recombination event involving an undescribed gammacoronavirus species. Multiple lineages of this gammacoronavirus co-circulated within our study population. Viruses from this species have recently been detected in aquatic birds from both the Anatidae and Rallidae families, implying that host species habitat sharing may be important in shaping virus host range. As the host range of the Goose coronavirus CB17 species is not limited to geese, we propose that this species name should be updated to 'Waterbird gammacoronavirus 1'. Non-invasive sampling of bird coronaviruses may provide a tractable model system for understanding the evolutionary and cross-species dynamics of coronaviruses.

Disentangling the causes of age-assortative mating in bird populations with contrasting life-history strategies.

Age shapes fundamental processes related to behaviour, survival and reproduction, where age influences reproductive success, non-random mating with respect to age can magnify or mitigate such effects. Consequently, the correlation in partners' age across a population may influence its productivity. Despite widespread evidence for age-assortative mating, little is known about what drives this assortment and its variation. Specifically, the relative importance of active (same-age mate preference) and passive processes (assortment as a consequence of other spatial or temporal effects) in driving age assortment is not well understood. In this paper, we compare breeding data from a great tit and mute swan population (51- and 31-year datasets, respectively) to tease apart the contributions of pair retention, cohort age structure and active age-related mate selection to age assortment in species with contrasting life histories. Both species show age-assortative mating and variable assortment between years. However, we demonstrate that the drivers of age assortment differ between the species, as expected from their life histories and resultant demographic differences. In great tits, pair fidelity has a weak effect on age-assortative mating through pair retention; variation in age assortment is primarily driven by fluctuations in age structure from variable juvenile recruitment. Age-assortative mating is, therefore, largely passive, with no evidence consistent with active age-related mate selection. In mute swans, age assortment is partly explained by pair retention, but not population age structure, and evidence exists for active age-assortative pairing. This difference is likely to result from shorter life-spans in great tits compared with mute swans, leading to fundamental differences in their population age structure, whereby a larger proportion of great tit populations consist of a single age cohort. In mute swans, age-assortative pairing through mate selection may also be driven by greater age-dependent variation in fitness. The study highlights the importance of considering how different life histories and demographic differences arising from these affect population processes that appear congruent across species. We suggest that future research should focus on uncovering the proximate mechanisms that lead to variation in active age-assortative mate selection (as seen in mute swans); and the consequences of variation in age structure on the ecological and social functioning of wild populations.

Impact of host age on viral and bacterial communities in a waterbird population.

Wildlife harbour pathogens that can harm human or livestock health and are the source of most emerging infectious diseases. It is rarely considered how changes in wildlife population age-structures or how age-stratified behaviours might alter the level of pathogen detection within a species, or risk of spillover to other species. Micro-organisms that occur in healthy animals can be an important model for understanding and predicting the dynamics of pathogens of greater health concern, which are hard to study in wild populations due to their relative rarity. We therefore used a metagenomic approach to jointly characterise viral and prokaryotic carriage in faeces collected from a healthy wild bird population (Cygnus olor; mute swan) that has been subject to long-term study. Using 223 samples from known individuals allowed us to compare differences in prokaryotic and eukaryotic viral carriage between adults and juveniles at an unprecedented level of detail. We discovered and characterised 77 novel virus species, of which 21% belong putatively to bird-infecting families, and described the core prokaryotic microbiome of C. olor. Whilst no difference in microbiota diversity was observed between juveniles and adult individuals, 50% (4/8) of bird-infecting virus families (picornaviruses, astroviruses, adenoviruses and bornaviruses) and 3.4% (9/267) of prokaryotic families (including Helicobacteraceae, Spirochaetaceae and Flavobacteriaceae families) were differentially abundant and/or prevalent between juveniles and adults. This indicates that perturbations that affect population age-structures of wildlife could alter circulation dynamics and spillover risk of microbes, potentially including pathogens.

Sampling strategies for species with high breeding-site fidelity: A case study in burrow-nesting seabirds.

Sampling approaches used to census and monitor populations of flora and fauna are diverse, ranging from simple random sampling to complex hierarchal stratified designs. Usually the approach taken is determined by the spatial and temporal distribution of the study population, along with other characteristics of the focal species. Long-term monitoring programs used to assess seabird population trends are facilitated by their high site fidelity, but are often hampered by large and difficult to access colonies, with highly variable densities that require intensive survey. We aimed to determine the sampling effort required to (a) estimate population size with a high degree of confidence, and (b) detect different scenarios of population change in a regionally important species in the Atlantic, the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus). Analyses were carried out using data collected from tape-playback surveys on four islands in the North Atlantic. To explore how sampling effort influenced confidence around abundance estimates, we used the heuristic approach of imagining the areas sampled represented the total population, and bootstrapped varying proportions of subsamples. This revealed that abundance estimates vary dramatically when less than half of all plots (n dependent on the size of the site) is randomly subsampled, leading to an unacceptable lack of confidence in population estimates. Confidence is substantially improved using a multi-stage stratified approach based on previous information on distribution in the colonies. In reality, this could lead to reducing the number of plots required by up to 80%. Furthermore, power analyses suggested that random selection of monitoring plots using a matched pairs approach generates little power to detect overall population changes of 10%, and density-dependent changes as large as 50%, because variation in density between plots is so high. Current monitoring programs have a high probability of failing to detect population-level changes due to inappropriate sampling efforts. Focusing sampling in areas of high density with low plot to plot variance dramatically increases the power to detect year to year population change, albeit at the risk of not detecting increases in low density areas, which may be an unavoidable strategy when resources are limited. We discuss how challenging populations with similar features to seabirds might be censused and monitored most effectively.

Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population.

Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in wild birds is crucial for guiding effective surveillance and control measures. The spread of H5 HPAIV has been well characterized over large geographical and temporal scales. However, information about the detailed dynamics and demographics of individual outbreaks in wild birds is rare and important epidemiological parameters remain unknown. We present data from a wild population of long-lived birds (mute swans; Cygnus olor) that has experienced three outbreaks of related H5 HPAIVs in the past decade, specifically, H5N1 (2007), H5N8 (2016) and H5N6 (2017). Detailed demographic data were available and intense sampling was conducted before and after the outbreaks; hence the population is unusually suitable for exploring the natural epidemiology, evolution and ecology of HPAIV in wild birds. We show that key epidemiological features remain remarkably consistent across multiple outbreaks, including the timing of virus incursion and outbreak duration, and the presence of a strong age-structure in morbidity that likely arises from an equivalent age-structure in immunological responses. The predictability of these features across a series of outbreaks in a complex natural population is striking and contributes to our understanding of HPAIV in wild birds. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.

Antibody responses to avian influenza viruses in wild birds broaden with age.

For viruses such as avian influenza, immunity within a host population can drive the emergence of new strains by selecting for viruses with novel antigens that avoid immune recognition. The accumulation of acquired immunity with age is hypothesized to affect how influenza viruses emerge and spread in species of different lifespans. Despite its importance for understanding the behaviour of avian influenza viruses, little is known about age-related accumulation of immunity in the virus's primary reservoir, wild birds. To address this, we studied the age structure of immune responses to avian influenza virus in a wild swan population (Cygnus olor), before and after the population experienced an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in 2008. We performed haemagglutination inhibition assays on sampled sera for five avian influenza strains and show that breadth of response accumulates with age. The observed age-related distribution of antibody responses to avian influenza strains may explain the age-dependent mortality observed during the highly pathogenic H5N1 outbreak. Age structures and species lifespan are probably important determinants of viral epidemiology and virulence in birds.

Dual foraging and pair coordination during chick provisioning by Manx shearwaters: empirical evidence supported by a simple model.

The optimal allocation of time and energy between one's own survival and offspring survival is critical for iteroparous animals, but creates a conflict between what maximises the parent's fitness and what maximises fitness of the offspring. For central-place foragers, provisioning strategies may reflect this allocation, while the distance between central-places and foraging areas may influence the decision. Nevertheless, few studies have explored the link between life history and foraging in the context of resource allocation. Studying foraging behaviour alongside food load rates to chicks provides a useful system for understanding the foraging decisions made during parent-offspring conflict. Using simultaneously deployed GPS and time-depth recorders, we examined the provisioning strategies in free-living Manx shearwaters Puffinus puffinus, which were caring for young. Our results showed a bimodal pattern, where birds alternate short and long trips. Short trips were associated with higher feeding frequency and larger meals than long trips, suggesting that long trips were performed for self-feeding. Furthermore, most foraging was carried out within 100 km of sea fronts. A simple model based on patch quality and travel time shows that for Manx shearwaters combining chick feeding and self-maintenance, bimodal foraging trip durations optimise feeding rates.

Who wears the pants in a mute swan pair? Deciphering the effects of male and female age and identity on breeding success.

Traditionally, many breeding traits (e.g. the timing and size of clutches) were considered to be female-only traits in that males played little-to-no role in their expression. Although the contribution of males to such breeding traits, as well as other aspects of reproduction, is increasingly recognized, few studies have demonstrated the effects of male age and life history on breeding traits and, importantly, whether these effects are underlined by additive-genetic variation. Here, we take advantage of a long-term data set on mute swans (Cygnus olor) to demonstrate that the ages of both the male and female parents play significant roles in the timing and size of clutches, although recruitment success did not show similar effects. Individual males varied significantly in their influence on the timing of egg laying. We decomposed this variation using an 'animal model'; competing models that were the source of this variation as additive-genetic or permanent-environmental variation was not statistically distinguishable. Our results add to the growing evidence that reproductive performance should be considered as a product of the identity and condition of both parents.

Evolutionary response to selection on clutch size in a long-term study of the mute swan.

Life-history traits in wild populations are often regarded as being subject to directional selection, and the existence of substantial variation and microevolutionary stasis of these characters is therefore a problem in need of explanation. Avian clutch size is an archetypal life-history trait in this context, and many studies have sought to test explanations for stasis in clutch size. Surprisingly, there are many fewer studies that used long-term data to ask how selection acts on clutch size, particularly in a multivariate framework. In this article, we report selection, inheritance, and evolution of clutch size over 25 years in a colony of mute swans using a multivariate quantitative genetic framework to control for correlations with breeding time. We show that clutch size is influenced by both additive genetic and permanent environmental effects and that selection acts on clutch size in combination with breeding time. Natural selection on clutch size is strongly directional, favoring larger clutches, and we observe an increase in clutch size of 0.35 standard deviations, consistent with the expected response based on selection and inheritance of clutch size. We hypothesize that these changes result from recent relaxation of food constraints and predation risks experienced by this colony.

Quantitative genetics of age at reproduction in wild swans: support for antagonistic pleiotropy models of senescence.

Why do individuals stop reproducing after a certain age, and how is this age determined? The antagonistic pleiotropy theory for the evolution of senescence predicts that increased early-life performance should be accompanied by earlier (or faster) senescence. Hence, an individual that has started to breed early should also lose its reproductive capacities early. We investigate here the relationship between age at first reproduction (AFR) and age at last reproduction (ALR) in a free-ranging mute swan (Cygnus olor) population monitored for 36 years. Using multivariate analyses on the longitudinal data, we show that both traits are strongly selected in opposite directions. Analysis of the phenotypic covariance between these characters shows that individuals vary in their inherent quality, such that some individuals have earlier AFR and later ALR than expected. Quantitative genetic pedigree analyses show that both traits possess additive genetic variance but also that AFR and ALR are positively genetically correlated. Hence, although both traits display heritable variation and are under opposing directional selection, their evolution is constrained by a strong evolutionary tradeoff. These results are consistent with the theory that increased early-life performance comes with faster senescence because of genetic tradeoffs.

Age-dependent genetic variance in a life-history trait in the mute swan.

Genetic variance in characters under natural selection in natural populations determines the way those populations respond to that selection. Whether populations show temporal and/or spatial constancy in patterns of genetic variance and covariance is regularly considered, as this will determine whether selection responses are constant over space and time. Much less often considered is whether characters show differing amounts of genetic variance over the life-history of individuals. Such age-specific variation, if present, has important potential consequences for the force of natural selection and for understanding the causes of variation in quantitative characters. Using data from a long-term study of the mute swan Cygnus olor, we report the partitioning of phenotypic variance in timing of breeding (subject to strong natural selection) into component parts over 12 different age classes. We show that the additive genetic variance and heritability of this trait are strongly age-dependent, with higher additive genetic variance present in young and, particularly, old birds, but little evidence of any genetic variance for birds of intermediate ages. These results demonstrate that age can have a very important influence on the components of variation of characters in natural populations, and consequently that separate age classes cannot be assumed to be equivalent, either with respect to their evolutionary potential or response.