Recolonization following past persecution questions the importance of persistent snow cover as a range limiting factor for wolverines.

Globally, climate is changing rapidly, which causes shifts in many species' distributions, stressing the need to understand their response to changing environmental conditions to inform conservation and management. Northern latitudes are expected to experience strongest changes in climate, with milder winters and decreasing snow cover. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a circumpolar, threatened carnivore distributed in northern tundra, boreal, and subboreal habitats. Previous studies have suggested that wolverine distribution and reproduction are constrained by a strong association with persistent spring snow cover. We assess this hypothesis by relating spatial distribution of 1589 reproductive events, a fitness-related proxy for female reproduction and survival, to snow cover over two decades. Wolverine distribution has increased and number of reproductive events increased 20 times in areas lacking spring snow cover during our study period, despite low monitoring effort where snow is sparse. Thus, the relationship between reproductive events and persistent spring snow cover weakened during this period. These findings show that wolverine reproductive success and hence distribution are less dependent on spring snow cover than expected. This has important implications for projections of future habitat availability, and thus distribution, of this threatened species. Our study also illustrates how past persecution, or other factors, that have restricted species distribution to remote areas can mask actual effects of environmental parameters, whose importance reveals when populations expand beyond previously restricted ranges. Overwhelming evidence shows that climate change is affecting many species and ecological processes, but forecasting potential consequences on a given species requires longitudinal data to revisit hypotheses and reassess the direction and magnitude of climate effects with new data. This is especially important for conservation-oriented management of species inhabiting dynamic systems where environmental factors and human activities interact, a common scenario for many species in different ecosystems around the globe.

Timing and synchrony of birth in Eurasian lynx across Europe.

The ecology and evolution of reproductive timing and synchrony have been a topic of great interest in evolutionary ecology for decades. Originally motivated by questions related to behavioral and reproductive adaptation to environmental conditions, the topic has acquired new relevance in the face of climate change. However, there has been relatively little research on reproductive phenology in mammalian carnivores. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) occurs across the Eurasian continent, covering three of the four main climate regions of the world. Thus, their distribution includes a large variation in climatic conditions, making it an ideal species to explore reproductive phenology. Here, we used data on multiple reproductive events from 169 lynx females across Europe. Mean birth date was May 28 (April 23 to July 1), but was ~10 days later in northern Europe than in central and southern Europe. Birth dates were relatively synchronized across Europe, but more so in the north than in the south. Timing of birth was delayed by colder May temperatures. Severe and cold weather may affect neonatal survival via hypothermia and avoiding inclement weather early in the season may select against early births, especially at northern latitudes. Overall, only about half of the kittens born survived until onset of winter but whether kittens were born relatively late or early did not affect kitten survival. Lynx are strict seasonal breeders but still show a degree of flexibility to adapt the timing of birth to surrounding environmental conditions. We argue that lynx give birth later when exposed to colder spring temperatures and have more synchronized births when the window of favorable conditions for raising kittens is shorter. This suggests that lynx are well adapted to different environmental conditions, from dry and warm climates to alpine, boreal, and arctic climates. This variation in reproductive timing will be favorable in times of climate change, as organisms with high plasticity are more likely to adjust to new environmental conditions.

Harvest models of small populations of a large carnivore using Bayesian forecasting.

Harvesting large carnivores can be a management tool for meeting politically set goals for their desired abundance. However, harvesting carnivores creates its own set of conflicts in both society and among conservation professionals, where one consequence is a need to demonstrate that management is sustainable, evidence-based, and guided by science. Furthermore, because large carnivores often also have high degrees of legal protection, harvest quotas have to be carefully justified and constantly adjusted to avoid damaging their conservation status. We developed a Bayesian state-space model to support adaptive management of Eurasian lynx harvesting in Scandinavia. The model uses data from the annual monitoring of lynx abundance and results from long-term field research on lynx biology, which has provided detailed estimates of key demographic parameters. We used the model to predict the probability that the forecasted population size will be below or above the management objectives when subjected to different harvest quotas. The model presented here informs decision makers about the policy risks of alternative harvest levels. Earlier versions of the model have been available for wildlife managers in both Sweden and Norway to guide lynx harvest quotas and the model predictions showed good agreement with observations. We combined monitoring data with data on vital rates and were able to estimate unobserved additional mortality rates, which are most probably due to poaching. In both countries, the past quota setting strategy suggests that there has been a de facto threshold strategy with increasing proportion, which means that there is no harvest below a certain population size, but above this threshold there is an increasing proportion of the population harvested as the population size increases. The annual assessment of the monitoring results, the use of forecasting models, and a threshold harvest approach to quota setting will all reduce the risk of lynx population sizes moving outside the desired goals. The approach we illustrate could be adapted to other populations of mammals worldwide.

Effects of reproduction and environmental factors on body temperature and activity patterns of wolverines.

BACKGROUND: Mammals in the far north are exposed to extreme seasonal changes in environmental conditions, such as temperature and photoperiod, which have notable effects on animal physiology and behaviour. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a carnivore with a circumpolar distribution and well-adapted to extreme environmental conditions. Still, ecophysiological studies on free-ranging wolverines are lacking. In this study, we used abdominally implanted body temperature loggers in combination with GPS collars with acceleration sensors on 14 free-ranging wolverines in northern Sweden to study daily and seasonal variation in body temperature and activity patterns. We used generalized additive mixed modelling to investigate body temperature patterns over time and Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis to analyse circadian rhythms. RESULTS: We found that wolverines have an average core body temperature of 38.5 ± 0.2 °C with a daily variation of up to 6 °C. Body temperature patterns varied between reproductive states. Pregnant females showed a distinct decrease in body temperature during gestation. Wolverines were active both in day and night, but displayed distinct activity peaks during crepuscular hours. However, body temperature and activity patterns changed seasonally, with a gradual change from a unimodal pattern in winter with concentrated activity during the short period of day light to a bimodal pattern in autumn with activity peaks around dusk and dawn. Wolverines were less likely to display 24-h rhythms in winter, when hours of day light are limited. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of different biologging techniques gave novel insight into the ecophysiology, activity patterns and reproductive biology of free-ranging wolverines, adding important knowledge to our understanding of animals adapted to cold environments at northern latitudes.

Eurasian lynx fitness shows little variation across Scandinavian human-dominated landscapes.

Despite extensive research on the ecology and behavioural adaptations of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes, information about the fitness consequences of sharing landscapes is still limited. We assessed the variation in three consecutive components of female fitness: the probability of reproduction, litter size and juvenile survival in relation to environmental and human factors in a solitary carnivore, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), occurring in human-dominated landscapes in Scandinavia. We used demographic data from 57 radio-collared adult females between 1995-2011 (126 radio-years). Overall, the yearly probability of female reproduction was 0.80, mean litter size was 2.34 (range 1-4) and the probability to find a female that reproduced in the spring being accompanied by at least one offspring during the subsequent winter was 0.70. We did not find evidence that food availability was a key factor influencing female fitness. Female lynx may adapt to food availability when establishing their home ranges by adopting an obstinate strategy, ensuring a minimum amount of prey necessary for survival and reproduction even during periods of prey scarcity. In human-dominated landscapes, where sufficient prey are available for lynx, mortality risk may have a larger influence on lynx population dynamics compared to food availability. Our results suggest that lynx population dynamics in human-dominated landscapes may be mainly driven by human impacts on survival.

Genome sequencing and conservation genomics in the Scandinavian wolverine population.

Genetic approaches have proved valuable to the study and conservation of endangered populations, especially for monitoring programs, and there is potential for further developments in this direction by extending analyses to the genomic level. We assembled the genome of the wolverine (Gulo gulo), a mustelid that in Scandinavia has recently recovered from a significant population decline, and obtained a 2.42 Gb draft sequence representing >85% of the genome and including >21,000 protein-coding genes. We then performed whole-genome resequencing of 10 Scandinavian wolverines for population genomic and demographic analyses. Genetic diversity was among the lowest detected in a red-listed population (mean genome-wide nucleotide diversity of 0.05%). Results of the demographic analyses indicated a long-term decline of the effective population size (Ne ) from 10,000 well before the last glaciation to <500 after this period. Current Ne appeared even lower. The genome-wide FIS level was 0.089 (possibly signaling inbreeding), but this effect was not observed when analyzing a set of highly variable SNP markers, illustrating that such markers can give a biased picture of the overall character of genetic diversity. We found significant population structure, which has implications for population connectivity and conservation. We used an integrated microfluidic circuit chip technology to develop an SNP-array consisting of 96 highly informative markers that, together with a multiplex pre-amplification step, was successfully applied to low-quality DNA from scat samples. Our findings will inform management, conservation, and genetic monitoring of wolverines and serve as a genomic roadmap that can be applied to other endangered species. The approach used here can be generally utilized in other systems, but we acknowledge the trade-off between investing in genomic resources and direct conservation actions.

Intensity of space use reveals conditional sex-specific effects of prey and conspecific density on home range size.

Home range (HR) size variation is often linked to resource abundance, with sex differences expected to relate to sex-specific fitness consequences. However, studies generally fail to disentangle the effects of the two main drivers of HR size variation, food and conspecific density, and rarely consider how their relative influence change over spatiotemporal scales. We used location data from 77 Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) from a 16-year Scandinavian study to examine HR sizes variation relative to prey and conspecific density at different spatiotemporal scales. By varying the isopleth parameter (intensity of use) defining the HR, we show that sex-specific effects were conditional on the spatial scale considered. Males had larger HRs than females in all seasons. Females' total HR size declined as prey and conspecific density increased, whereas males' total HR was only affected by conspecific density. However, as the intensity of use within the HR increased (from 90% to 50% isopleth), the relationship between prey density and area showed opposing patterns for females and males; for females, the prey density effect was reduced, while for males, prey became increasingly important. Thus, prey influenced the size of key regions within male HRs, despite total HR size being independent of prey density. Males reduced their HR size during the mating season, likely to remain close to individual females in estrous. Females reduced their HR size postreproduction probably because of movement constrains imposed by dependent young. Our findings highlight the importance of simultaneously considering resources and intraspecific interactions as HR size determinants. We show that sex-specific demands influence the importance of prey and conspecific density on space use at different spatiotemporal scales. Thus, unless a gradient of space use intensity is examined, factors not related to total HR size might be disregarded despite their importance in determining size of key regions within the HR.

Tracking neighbours promotes the coexistence of large carnivores.

The study of competition and coexistence among similar interacting species has long been considered a cornerstone in evolutionary and community ecology. However, understanding coexistence remains a challenge. Using two similar and sympatric competing large carnivores, Eurasian lynx and wolverines, we tested the hypotheses that tracking among heterospecifics and reactive responses to potential risk decreases the probability of an agonistic encounter when predators access shared food resources, thus facilitating coexistence. Lynx and wolverines actively avoided each other, with the degree of avoidance being greater for simultaneous than time-delayed predator locations. Wolverines reacted to the presence of lynx at relatively short distances (mean: 383 m). In general, lynx stayed longer, and were more stationary, around reindeer carcasses than wolverines. However, when both predators were present at the same time around a carcass, lynx shortened their visits, while wolverine behavior did not change. Our results support the idea that risk avoidance is a reactive, rather than a predictive, process. Since wolverines have adapted to coexist with lynx, exploiting lynx-killed reindeer carcasses while avoiding potential encounters, the combined presence of both predators may reduce wolverine kill rate and thus the total impact of these predators on semi-domestic reindeer in Scandinavia. Consequently, population management directed at lynx may affect wolverine populations and human-wolverine conflicts.

Reproductive patterns result from age-related sensitivity to resources and reproductive costs in a mammalian carnivore.

Although the effects of individual age, resource availability, and reproductive costs have been extensively studied to understand the causes of variation in reproductive output, there are almost no studies showing how these factors interact in explaining this variation. To examine this interaction, we used longitudinal demographic data from an 18-year study of 53 breeding female wolverines (Gulo gulo), and corresponding environmental data from their individual home ranges. Females showed a typical age-related pattern in reproductive output, with an initial increase followed by a senescent decline in later years. This pattern was largely driven by four processes: (1) physiological/behavioral maturation between ages two and three; (2) age-related differences in the costs of reproduction resulting in an initial increase, and then a declining probability of breeding two years in a row as individuals aged; (3) resource availability (reindeer [Rangifer tarandus] carcass abundance; mostly Eurasian lynx [Lynx lynx] kills) in the months preceding parturition, which influenced the probability of having cubs, but only for individuals that had successfully bred in the previous year; and (4) resource availability also influenced the cost of reproduction in an age-dependent manner, as prime age females that had bred in the previous year were more responsive to resource availability than those at other ages. This study demonstrates that by examining how drivers of reproductive variation interact, we can get a much clearer understanding of the mechanisms responsible for age-related patterns of reproduction. This has implications not only for general ecological theory, but will also allow better predictions of population resnonses to environmental changes or management based on a population's age-structure.

Activity patterns of Eurasian lynx are modulated by light regime and individual traits over a wide latitudinal range.

The activity patterns of most terrestrial animals are regarded as being primarily influenced by light, although other factors, such as sexual cycle and climatic conditions, can modify the underlying patterns. However, most activity studies have been limited to a single study area, which in turn limit the variability of light conditions and other factors. Here we considered a range of variables that might potentially influence the activity of a large carnivore, the Eurasian lynx, in a network of studies conducted with identical methodology in different areas spanning latitudes from 49°7'N in central Europe to 70°00'N in northern Scandinavia. The variables considered both light conditions, ranging from a day with a complete day-night cycle to polar night and polar day, as well as individual traits of the animals. We analysed activity data of 38 individual free-ranging lynx equipped with GPS-collars with acceleration sensors, covering more than 11,000 lynx days. Mixed linear additive models revealed that the lynx activity level was not influenced by the daily daylight duration and the activity pattern was bimodal, even during polar night and polar day. The duration of the active phase of the activity cycle varied with the widening and narrowing of the photoperiod. Activity varied significantly with moonlight. Among adults, males were more active than females, and subadult lynx were more active than adults. In polar regions, the amplitude of the lynx daily activity pattern was low, likely as a result of the polycyclic activity pattern of their main prey, reindeer. At lower latitudes, the basic lynx activity pattern peaked during twilight, corresponding to the crepuscular activity pattern of the main prey, roe deer. Our results indicated that the basic activity of lynx is independent of light conditions, but is modified by both individual traits and the activity pattern of the locally most important prey.

Piscivore-prey fish interactions: mechanisms behind diurnal patterns in prey selectivity in brown and clear water.

Environmental change may affect predator-prey interactions in lakes through deterioration of visual conditions affecting foraging success of visually oriented predators. Environmental change in lakes includes an increase in humic matter causing browner water and reduced visibility, affecting the behavioural performance of both piscivores and prey. We studied diurnal patterns of prey selection in piscivorous pikeperch (Sander lucioperca) in both field and laboratory investigations. In the field we estimated prey selectivity and prey availability during day and night in a clear and a brown water lake. Further, prey selectivity during day and night conditions was studied in the laboratory where we manipulated optical conditions (humic matter content) of the water. Here, we also studied the behaviours of piscivores and prey, focusing on foraging-cycle stages such as number of interests and attacks by the pikeperch as well as the escape distance of the prey fish species. Analyses of gut contents from the field study showed that pikeperch selected perch (Perca fluviatilis) over roach (Rutilus rutilus) prey in both lakes during the day, but changed selectivity towards roach in both lakes at night. These results were corroborated in the selectivity experiments along a brown-water gradient in day and night light conditions. However, a change in selectivity from perch to roach was observed when the optical condition was heavily degraded, from either brown-stained water or light intensity. At longer visual ranges, roach initiated escape at distances greater than pikeperch attack distances, whereas perch stayed inactive making pikeperch approach and attack at the closest range possible. Roach anti-predatory behaviour decreased in deteriorated visual conditions, altering selectivity patterns. Our results highlight the importance of investigating both predator and prey responses to visibility conditions in order to understand the effects of degrading optical conditions on piscivore-prey interaction strength and thereby ecosystem responses to brownification of waters.

When species' ranges meet: assessing differences in habitat selection between sympatric large carnivores.

Differentiation in habitat selection among sympatric species may depend on niche partitioning, species interactions, selection mechanisms and scales considered. In a mountainous area in Sweden, we explored hierarchical habitat selection in Global Positioning System-collared individuals of two sympatric large carnivore species; an obligate predator, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and a generalist predator and scavenger, the wolverine (Gulo gulo). Although the species' fundamental niches differ widely, their ranges overlap in this area where they share a prey base and main cause of mortality. Both lynx and wolverines selected for steep and rugged terrain in mountainous birch forest and in heaths independent of scale and available habitats. However, the selection of lynx for their preferred habitats was stronger when they were forming home ranges and they selected the same habitats within their home ranges independent of home range composition. Wolverines displayed a greater variability when selecting home ranges and habitat selection also varied with home range composition. Both species selected for habitats that promote survival through limited encounters with humans, but which also are rich in prey, and selection for these habitats was accordingly stronger in winter when human activity was high and prey density was low. We suggest that the observed differences between the species result primarily from different foraging strategies, but may also depend on differences in ranging and resting behaviour, home range size, and relative density of each species. Our results support the prediction that sympatric carnivores with otherwise diverging niches can select for the same resources when sharing main sources of food and mortality.

Native predators reduce harvest of reindeer by Sámi pastoralists.

Contemporary efforts to protect biological diversity recognize the importance of sustaining traditional human livelihoods, particularly uses of the land that are compatible with intact landscapes and ecologically complete food webs. However, these efforts often confront conflicting goals. For example, conserving native predators may harm pastoralist economies because predators consume domestic livestock that sustain people. This potential conflict must be reconciled by policy, but such reconciliation requires a firm understanding of the effects of predators on the prey used by people. We used a long-term, large-scale database and Bayesian models to estimate the impacts of lynx (Lynx lynx), wolverine (Gulo gulo), and brown bear (Ursus arctos) on harvest of semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) by Sami pastoralists in Sweden. The average annual harvest of reindeer averaged 25% of the population (95% credible interval = 19, 31). Annual harvest declined by 96.6 (31, 155) reindeer for each lynx family group (the surveyed segment of the lynx population) in a management unit and by 94.3 (20, 160) for each wolverine reproduction (the surveyed segment of the wolverine population). We failed to detect effects of predation by brown bear. The mechanism for effects of predation on harvest was reduced population growth rate. The rate of increase of reindeer populations declined with increasing abundance of lynx and wolverine. The density of reindeer, latitude, and weather indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation also influenced reindeer population growth rate. We conclude that there is a biological basis for compensating the Sámi reindeer herders for predation on reindeer.

Capture and medetomidine-ketamine anesthesia of free-ranging wolverines (Gulo gulo).

Capture and anesthesia with medetomidine-ketamine were evaluated in free-ranging wolverines (Gulo gulo) immobilized for marking with radiocollars or intraperitoneal radiotransmitters in Norrbotten, Sweden, during early June 2004 and 2005. Twelve juvenile wolverines were captured by hand and injected with 0.14 +/- 0.03 mg/kg (mean +/- SD) medetomidine and 7.5 +/- 2.0 mg/kg ketamine. Twelve adult wolverines were darted from a helicopter or the ground, or captured by hand. Adults received 0.37 +/- 0.06 mg/kg medetomidine and 9.4 +/- 1.4 mg/kg ketamine. Arterial blood samples were collected between 15 min and 30 min and between 45 min and 60 min after drug administration and immediately analyzed for selected hematologic and plasma variables. Hyperthermia was recorded initially in one juvenile wolverine and 11 adults. Rectal temperature, heart rate, and lactate decreased significantly during anesthesia, whereas hemoglobin oxygen saturation, pH, partial pressure of arterial carbon dioxide, and base excess increased. Adult wolverines darted from a helicopter had a significantly higher rectal temperature, higher glucose and hematocrit values, and a lower heart rate than juveniles captured by hand. Impaired arterial oxygenation was evident in all wolverines. This study provides baseline data on physiologic variables in adult and juvenile wolverines captured with different methods and anesthetized with medetomidine-ketamine.