A spatiotemporal natural-human database to evaluate road development impacts in an Amazon trinational frontier.

Road construction and paving bring socio-economic benefits to receiving regions but can also be drivers of deforestation and land cover change. Road infrastructure often increases migration and illegal economic activities, which in turn affect local hydrology, wildlife, vegetation structure and dynamics, and biodiversity. To evaluate the full breadth of impacts from a coupled natural-human systems perspective, information is needed over a sufficient timespan to include pre- and post-road paving conditions. In addition, the spatial scale should be appropriate to link local human activities and biophysical system components, while also allowing for upscaling to the regional scale. A database was developed for the tri-national frontier in the Southwestern Amazon, where the Inter-Oceanic Highway was constructed through an area of high biological value and cultural diversity. Extensive socio-economic surveys and botanical field work are combined with remote sensing and reanalysis data to provide a rich and unique database, suitable for coupled natural-human systems research.

Modeling spatial decisions with graph theory: logging roads and forest fragmentation in the Brazilian Amazon.

This article addresses the spatial decision-making of loggers and implications for forest fragmentation in the Amazon basin. It provides a behavioral explanation for fragmentation by modeling how loggers build road networks, typically abandoned upon removal of hardwoods. Logging road networks provide access to land, and the settlers who take advantage of them clear fields and pastures that accentuate their spatial signatures. In shaping agricultural activities, these networks organize emergent patterns of forest fragmentation, even though the loggers move elsewhere. The goal of the article is to explicate how loggers shape their road networks, in order to theoretically explain an important type of forest fragmentation found in the Amazon basin, particularly in Brazil. This is accomplished by adapting graph theory to represent the spatial decision-making of loggers, and by implementing computational algorithms that build graphs interpretable as logging road networks. The economic behavior of loggers is conceptualized as a profit maximization problem, and translated into spatial decision-making by establishing a formal correspondence between mathematical graphs and road networks. New computational approaches, adapted from operations research, are used to construct graphs and simulate spatial decision-making as a function of discount rates, land tenure, and topographic constraints. The algorithms employed bracket a range of behavioral settings appropriate for areas of terras de volutas, public lands that have not been set aside for environmental protection, indigenous peoples, or colonization. The simulation target sites are located in or near so-called Terra do Meio, once a major logging frontier in the lower Amazon Basin. Simulation networks are compared to empirical ones identified by remote sensing and then used to draw inferences about factors influencing the spatial behavior of loggers. Results overall suggest that Amazonia's logging road networks induce more fragmentation than necessary to access fixed quantities of wood. The paper concludes by considering implications of the approach and findings for Brazil's move to a system of concession logging.

Protecting the Amazon with protected areas.

This article addresses climate-tipping points in the Amazon Basin resulting from deforestation. It applies a regional climate model to assess whether the system of protected areas in Brazil is able to avoid such tipping points, with massive conversion to semiarid vegetation, particularly along the south and southeastern margins of the basin. The regional climate model produces spatially distributed annual rainfall under a variety of external forcing conditions, assuming that all land outside protected areas is deforested. It translates these results into dry season impacts on resident ecosystems and shows that Amazonian dry ecosystems in the southern and southeastern basin do not desiccate appreciably and that extensive areas experience an increase in precipitation. Nor do the moist forests dry out to an excessive amount. Evidently, Brazilian environmental policy has created a sustainable core of protected areas in the Amazon that buffers against potential climate-tipping points and protects the drier ecosystems of the basin. Thus, all efforts should be made to manage them effectively.

Road building, land use and climate change: prospects for environmental governance in the Amazon.

Some coupled land-climate models predict a dieback of Amazon forest during the twenty-first century due to climate change, but human land use in the region has already reduced the forest cover. The causation behind land use is complex, and includes economic, institutional, political and demographic factors. Pre-eminent among these factors is road building, which facilitates human access to natural resources that beget forest fragmentation. While official government road projects have received considerable attention, unofficial road building by interest groups is expanding more rapidly, especially where official roads are being paved, yielding highly fragmented forest mosaics. Effective governance of natural resources in the Amazon requires a combination of state oversight and community participation in a 'hybrid' model of governance. The MAP Initiative in the southwestern Amazon provides an example of an innovative hybrid approach to environmental governance. It embodies a polycentric structure that includes government agencies, NGOs, universities and communities in a planning process that links scientific data to public deliberations in order to mitigate the effects of new infrastructure and climate change.