Childhood Transitions Between Weight Status Categories: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions targeting childhood excess weight requires estimates of the hazards of transitioning between weight status categories. Current estimates are based on studies characterized by insufficient sample sizes, a lack of national representativeness, and untested assumptions. OBJECTIVES: We sought to (1) estimate transition probabilities and hazard ratios for transitioning between childhood weight status categories, (2) test the validity of the underlying assumption in the literature that transitions between childhood bodyweight categories are time-homogeneous, (3) account for complex sampling procedures when deriving nationally representative transition estimates, and (4) explore the impact of child, maternal, and sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: We applied a multistate transition modeling approach accounting for complex survey design to UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) data to predict transition probabilities and hazard ratios for weight status movements for children aged 3-17. Surveys were conducted at ages 3 (wave 2 in 2004), 5 (wave 3 in 2006), 7 (wave 4 in 2008), 11 (wave 5 in 2012), 14 (wave 6 in 2015), and 17 (wave 7 in 2018) years. We derived datasets that included repeated body mass index measurements across waves after excluding multiple births and children with missing or implausible bodyweight records. To account for the stratified cluster sample design of the MCS, we incorporated survey weights and jackknife replicates of survey weights. Using a validation dataset from the MCS, we tested the validity of our models. Finally, we estimated the relationships between state transitions and child, maternal, and sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: The datasets for our primary analysis consisted of 10,399 children for waves 2-3, 10,729 for waves 3-4, 9685 for waves 4-5, 8593 for waves 5-6, and 7085 for waves 6-7. All datasets consisted of roughly equal splits of boys and girls. Under the assumption of time-heterogeneous transition rates (our base-case model), younger children (ages 3-5 and 5-7 years) had significantly higher annual transition probabilities of moving from healthy weight to overweight (0.033, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.026-0.041, and 0.027, 95% CI 0.021-0.033, respectively) compared to older children (0.015, 95% CI 0.012-0.018, at ages 7-11; 0.018, 95% CI 0.013-0.023, at ages 11-14; and 0.018, 95% CI 0.013-0.025 at ages 14-17 years). However, the resolution of unhealthy weight was more strongly age-dependent than transitions from healthy weight to non-healthy weight states. Transition hazards differed by child, maternal, and sociodemographic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our models generated estimates of bodyweight status transitions in a representative UK childhood population. Compared to our scenario models (i.e., time-homogeneous transition rates), our base-case model fits the observed data best, indicating a non-time-homogeneous pattern in transitions between bodyweight categories during childhood. Transition hazards varied significantly by age and across subpopulations, suggesting that conducting subgroup-specific cost-effectiveness analyses of childhood weight management interventions will optimize decision-making.

Quality Appraisal in Systematic Literature Reviews of Studies Eliciting Health State Utility Values: Conceptual Considerations.

BACKGROUND: The increasing number of studies that generate health state utility values (HSUVs) and the impact of HSUVs on cost-utility analyses make a robust tailored quality appraisal (QA) tool for systematic reviews of these studies necessary. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to address conceptual issues regarding QA in systematic reviews of studies eliciting HSUVs by establishing a consensus on the definitions, dimensions and scope of a QA tool specific to this context. METHODS: A modified Delphi method was used in this study. An international multidisciplinary panel of seven experts was purposively assembled. The experts engaged in two anonymous online survey rounds. After each round, the experts received structured and controlled feedback on the previous phase. Controlled feedback allowed the experts to re-evaluate and adjust their positions based on collective insights. Following these surveys, a virtual face-to-face meeting was held to resolve outstanding issues. Consensus was defined a priori at all stages of the modified Delphi process. RESULTS: The response rates to the first-round and second-round questionnaires and the virtual consensus meeting were 100%, 86% and 71%, respectively. The entire process culminated in a consensus on the definitions of scientific quality, QA, the three QA dimensions-reporting, relevance and  methodological quality-and the scope of a QA tool specific to studies that elicit HSUVs. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving this consensus marks a pivotal step towards developing a QA tool specific to systematic reviews of studies eliciting HSUVs. Future research will build on this foundation, identify QA items, signalling questions and response options, and develop a QA tool specific to studies eliciting HSUVs.

Cost-utility analysis of molnupiravir plus usual care versus usual care alone as early treatment for community-based adults with COVID-19 and increased risk of adverse outcomes in the UK PANORAMIC trial.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral for early treatment of SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated populations. AIM: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir relative to usual care alone among mainly vaccinated community-based people at higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 over six months. DESIGN AND SETTING: Economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial in the UK. METHOD: A cost-utility analysis that adopted a UK National Health Service and personal social services perspective and a six-month time horizon was performed using PANORAMIC trial data. Cost-effectiveness was expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses assessed the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity. Threshold analysis explored the price for molnupiravir consistent with likely reimbursement. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, molnupiravir had higher mean costs of £449 (95% confidence interval [CI] 445 to 453) and higher mean QALYs of 0.0055 (95% CI 0.004 to 0.007) than usual care (mean incremental cost per QALY of £81190). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses showed similar results, except those aged ≥75 years with a 55% probability of being cost-effective at a £30000 per QALY threshold. Molnupiravir would have to be priced around £147 per course to be cost-effective at a £15000 per QALY threshold. CONCLUSION: Molnupiravir at the current cost of £513 per course is unlikely to be cost-effective relative to usual care over a six-month time horizon among mainly vaccinated COVID-19 patients at increased risk of adverse outcomes, except those aged ≥75 years.

The RETRIEVE Checklist for Studies Reporting the Elicitation of Stated Preferences for Child Health-Related Quality of Life.

BACKGROUND: Recent systematic reviews show varying methods for eliciting, modelling, and reporting preference-based values for child health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) outcomes, thus producing value sets with different characteristics. Reporting in many of the reviewed studies was found to be incomplete and inconsistent, making them difficult to assess. Checklists can help to improve standards of reporting; however, existing checklists do not address methodological issues for valuing child HRQoL. Existing checklists also focus on reporting methods and processes used in developing HRQoL values, with less focus on reporting of the values' key characteristics and properties. We aimed to develop a checklist for studies generating values for child HRQoL, including for disease-specific states and value sets for generic child HRQoL instruments. DEVELOPMENT: A conceptual model provided a structure for grouping items into five modules. Potential items were sourced from an adult HRQoL checklist review, with additional items specific to children developed using recent reviews. Checklist items were reduced by eliminating duplication and overlap, then refined for relevance and clarity via an iterative process. Long and short checklist versions were produced for different user needs. The resulting long RETRIEVE contains 83 items, with modules for reporting methods (A-D) and characteristics of values (E), for researchers planning and reporting child health valuation studies. The short RETRIEVE contains 14 items for decision makers or researchers choosing value sets. CONCLUSION: Applying the RETRIEVE checklists to relevant studies suggests feasibility. RETRIEVE has the potential to improve completeness in the reporting of preference-based values for child HRQOL outcomes and to improve assessment of preference-based value sets.

Longitudinal associations between socioeconomic position and overall health of children with chronic kidney disease and their carers.

BACKGROUND: Disadvantaged socioeconomic position (SEP) is an important predictor of poor health in children with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The time course over which SEP influences the health of children with CKD and their carers is unknown. METHODS: This prospective longitudinal study included 377 children, aged 6-18 years with CKD (stages I-V, dialysis, and transplant), and their primary carers. Mixed effects ordinal regression was performed to assess the association between SEP and carer-rated child health and carer self-rated health over a 4-year follow-up. RESULTS: Adjusted for CKD stage, higher family household income (adjusted odds ratio (OR) (95% CI) 3.3, 1.8-6.0), employed status of primary carers (1.7, 0.9-3.0), higher carer-perceived financial status (2.6, 1.4-4.8), and carer home ownership (2.2, 1.2-4.0) were associated with better carer-rated child health. Household income also had a differential effect on the carer's self-rated health over time (p = 0.005). The predicted probabilities for carers' overall health being 'very good' among lower income groups at 0, 2, and 4 years were 0.43 (0.28-0.60), 0.34 (0.20-0.51), and 0.25 (0.12-0.44), respectively, and 0.81 (0.69-0.88), 0.84 (0.74-0.91), and 0.88 (0.76-0.94) for carers within the higher income group. CONCLUSIONS: Carers and their children with CKD in higher SEP report better overall child and carer health compared with those in lower SEP. Carers of children with CKD in low-income households had poorer self-rated health compared with carers in higher-income households at baseline, and this worsened over time. These cumulative effects may contribute to health inequities between higher and lower SEP groups over time. Graphical abstract A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Systematic Review of the Relative Social Value of Child and Adult Health.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to synthesise knowledge on the relative social value of child and adult health. METHODS: Quantitative and qualitative studies that evaluated the willingness of the public to prioritise treatments for children over adults were included. A search to September 2023 was undertaken. Completeness of reporting was assessed using a checklist derived from Johnston et al. Findings were tabulated by study type (matching/person trade-off, discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay, opinion survey or qualitative). Evidence in favour of children was considered in total, by length or quality of life, methodology and respondent characteristics. RESULTS: Eighty-eight studies were included; willingness to pay (n = 9), matching/person trade-off (n = 12), discrete choice experiments (n = 29), opinion surveys (n = 22) and qualitative (n = 16), with one study simultaneously included as an opinion survey. From 88 studies, 81 results could be ascertained. Across all studies irrespective of method or other characteristics, 42 findings supported prioritising children, while 12 provided evidence favouring adults in preference to children. The remainder supported equal prioritisation or found diverse or unclear views. Of those studies considering prioritisation within the under 18 years of age group, nine findings favoured older children over younger children (including for life saving interventions), six favoured younger children and five found diverse views. CONCLUSIONS: The balance of evidence suggests the general public favours prioritising children over adults, but this view was not found across all studies. There are research gaps in understanding the public's views on the value of health gains to very young children and the motivation behind the public's views on the value of child relative to adult health gains. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: The review is registered at PROSPERO number: CRD42021244593. There were two amendments to the protocol: (1) some additional search terms were added to the search strategy prior to screening to ensure coverage and (2) a more formal quality assessment was added to the process at the data extraction stage. This assessment had not been identified at the protocol writing stage.

Variation in follow-up for children born very preterm in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Children born very preterm (<32 weeks of gestation) face high risks of neurodevelopmental and health difficulties compared with children born at term. Follow-up after discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit is essential to ensure early detection and intervention, but data on policy approaches are sparse. METHODS: We investigated the characteristics of follow-up policy and programmes in 11 European countries from 2011 to 2022 using healthcare informant questionnaires and the published/grey literature. We further explored how one aspect of follow-up, its recommended duration, may be reflected in the percent of parents reporting that their children are receiving follow-up services at 5 years of age in these countries using data from an area-based cohort of very preterm births in 2011/12 (N = 3635). RESULTS: Between 2011/12 and 22, the number of countries with follow-up policies or programmes increased from 6 to 11. The policies and programmes were heterogeneous in eligibility criteria, duration and content. In countries that recommended longer follow-up, parent-reported follow-up rates at 5 years of age were higher, especially among the highest risk children, born <28 weeks' gestation or with birthweight <1000 g: between 42.1% and 70.1%, vs. <20% in most countries without recommendations. CONCLUSIONS: Large variations exist in follow-up policies and programmes for children born very preterm in Europe; differences in recommended duration translate into cross-country disparities in reported follow-up at 5 years of age.

Mapping and identifying service models for community-based services for children with intellectual disabilities and behaviours that challenge in England.

BACKGROUND: One in five children with an intellectual disability in the UK display behaviours that challenge. Despite associated impacts on the children themselves, their families, and services, little research has been published about how best to design, organise, and deliver health and care services to these children. The purpose of this study was to describe how services are structured and organised ("service models") in England for community-based health and care services for children with intellectual disability who display behaviours that challenge. METHODS: Survey data about services were collected from 161 eligible community-based services in England. Staff from 60 of these services were also interviewed. A combination of latent class and descriptive analysis, coupled with consultation with family carers and professionals was used to identify and describe groupings of similar services (i.e., "service models"). RESULTS: The latent class analysis, completed as a first step in the process, supported a distinction between specialist services and non-specialist services for children who display behaviours that challenge. Planned descriptive analyses incorporating additional study variables were undertaken to further refine the service models. Five service models were identified: Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) (n = 69 services), Intellectual Disability CAMHS (n = 28 services), Children and Young People Disability services (n = 25 services), Specialist services for children who display behaviours that challenge (n = 27 services), and broader age range services for children and/or adolescents and adults (n= 12 services). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis led to a typology of five service models for community health and care services for children with intellectual disabilities and behaviours that challenge in England. Identification of a typology of service models is a first step in building evidence about the best provision of services for children with intellectual disabilities who display behaviours that challenge. The methods used in the current study may be useful in research developing service typologies in other specialist fields of health and care. STUDY REGISTRATION: Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN88920546, Date assigned 05/07/2022.

Pain with neuropathic characteristics after surgically treated lower limb fractures: Cost analysis and pain medication use.

Introduction: Neuropathic pain is prevalent among people after lower limb fracture surgery and is associated with lower health-related quality of life and greater disability. This study estimates the financial cost and pain medication use associated with neuropathic pain in this group. Methods: A secondary analysis using pain data collected over six postoperative months from participants randomised in the Wound Healing in Surgery for Trauma (WHiST) trial. Pain states were classified as pain-free, chronic non-neuropathic pain (NNP) or chronic neuropathic pain (NP). Cost associated with each pain state from a UK National Health Service (NHS) and personal social services (PSS) perspective were estimated by multivariate models based on multiple imputed data. Pain medication usage was analysed by pain state. Results: A total of 934 participants who provided either 3- or 6-months pain data were included. Compared to participants with NP, those with NNP (adjusted mean difference -£730, p = 0.38, 95% CI -2368 to 908) or were pain-free (adjusted mean difference -£716, p = 0.53, 95% CI -2929 to 1497) had lower costs from the NHS and PSS perspective in the first three postoperative months. Over the first three postoperative months, almost a third of participants with NP were prescribed opioids and 8% were prescribed NP medications. Similar trends were observed by 6 months postoperatively. Conclusion: This study found healthcare costs were higher amongst those with chronic NP compared to those who were pain-free or had chronic NNP. Opioids, rather than neuropathic pain medications, were commonly prescribed for NP over the first six postoperative months, contrary to clinical guidelines.

Impact of Long COVID on productivity and informal caregiving.

BACKGROUND: Around 2 million people in the UK suffer from Long COVID (LC). Of concern is the disease impact on productivity and informal care burden. This study aimed to quantify and value productivity losses and informal care receipt in a sample of LC patients in the UK. METHODS: The target population comprised LC patients referred to LC specialist clinics. The questionnaires included a health economics questionnaire (HEQ) measuring productivity impacts, informal care receipt and service utilisation, EQ-5D-5L, C19-YRS LC condition-specific measure, and sociodemographic and COVID-19 history variables. Outcomes were changes from the incident infection resulting in LC to the month preceding the survey in paid work status/h, work income, work performance and informal care receipt. The human capital approach valued productivity losses; the proxy goods method valued caregiving hours. The values were extrapolated nationally using published prevalence data. Multilevel regressions, nested by region, estimated associations between the outcomes and patient characteristics. RESULTS: 366 patients responded to HEQ (mean LC duration 449.9 days). 51.7% reduced paid work hours relative to the pre-infection period. Mean monthly work income declined by 24.5%. The average aggregate value of productivity loss since incident infection was £10,929 (95% bootstrap confidence interval £8,844-£13,014) and £5.7 billion (£3.8-£7.6 billion) extrapolated nationally. The corresponding values for informal caregiving were £8,726 (£6,247-£11,204) and £4.8 billion (£2.6-£7.0 billion). Multivariate analyses found significant associations between each outcome and health utility and C19-YRS subscale scores. CONCLUSION: LC significantly impacts productivity losses and provision of informal care, exacerbated by high national prevalence of LC.

Effect of national guidance on survival for babies born at 22 weeks' gestation in England and Wales: population based cohort study.

Objectives: To explore the effect of changes in national clinical recommendations in 2019 that extended provision of survival focused care to babies born at 22 weeks' gestation in England and Wales. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: England and Wales, comprising routine data for births and hospital records. Participants: Babies alive at the onset of care in labour at 22 weeks+0 days to 22 weeks+6 days and at 23 weeks+0 days to 24 weeks+6 days for comparison purposes between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2021. Main outcome measures: Percentage of babies given survival focused care (active respiratory support after birth), admitted to neonatal care, and surviving to discharge in 2018-19 and 2020-21. Results: For the 1001 babies alive at the onset of labour at 22 weeks' gestation, a threefold increase was noted in: survival focused care provision from 11.3% to 38.4% (risk ratio 3.41 (95% confidence interval 2.61 to 4.45)); admissions to neonatal units from 7.4% to 28.1% (3.77 (2.70 to 5.27)), and survival to discharge from neonatal care from 2.5% to 8.2% (3.29 (1.78 to 6.09)). More babies of lower birth weight and early gestational age received survival focused care in 2020-21 than 2018-19 (46% to 64% at <500g weight; 19% to 31% at 22 weeks+0 days to 22 weeks+3 days). Conclusions: A change in national guidance to recommend a risk based approach was associated with a threefold increase in 22 weeks' gestation babies receiving survival focused care. The number of babies being admitted to neonatal units and those surviving to discharge increased.

Psychometric Performance of Generic Childhood Multi-Attribute Utility Instruments in Preterm and Low Birthweight Populations: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Individuals born preterm (gestational age < 37 weeks) and/or at low birthweight (<2500 g) are at increased risk of health impairments from birth to adulthood. This review aimed to evaluate the psychometric performance of generic childhood-specific or childhood-compatible multi-attribute utility instruments (MAUIs) in preterm and/or low birthweight (PLB) populations. METHODS: Searches covered seven databases, including studies that targeted childhood (aged < 18 years) and/or adult (≥18 years) PLB populations; provided psychometric evidence for generic childhood-specific or compatible MAUI(s) (any language version); and published in English. Eighteen psychometric properties were evaluated using a four-part criteria rating system. Data syntheses identified psychometric evidence gaps and summarised the psychometric assessment methods/results. RESULTS: A total of 42 studies were included, generating 178 criteria rating outputs across four MAUIs: 17D, CHSCS-PS, HUI2, and HUI3. Moreover, 64.0% of outputs concerned the HUI3 MAUI, and 38.2% related to known-group validity. There was no evidence for five psychometric properties. Only 6.7% of outputs concerned reliability and proxy-child agreement. No MAUI outperformed others across all properties. The frequently applied HUI2 and HUI3 lacked content validity evidence. CONCLUSIONS: This psychometric evidence catalogue should inform the selection of MAUI(s) suited to the specific aims of applications targeting PLB populations. Further psychometric research is warranted to address the gaps in psychometric evidence.

Epidemiology of revision hip replacement surgery in the UK over the past 15 years-an analysis from the National Joint Registry.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate trends in the incidence rate and main indication for revision hip replacement (rHR) over the past 15 years in the UK. DESIGN: Repeated national cross-sectional study from 2006 to 2020. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: rHR procedures were identified from the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man and the States of Guernsey. Population statistics were obtained from the Office for National Statistics. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude incidence rates of rHR. RESULTS: The incidence rate of rHR doubled from 11 per 100 000 adults in 2006 (95% CI 10.7 to 11.3) to a peak of 22 per 100 000 adults (95% CI 22 to 23) in 2012, before falling to 17 per 100 000 adults in 2019 (95% CI 16 to 17) (24.5% decrease from peak). The incidence rate of rHR reduced by 39% in 2020 compared with 2019 (during the COVID-19 pandemic). The most frequent indications for rHR between 2006 and 2019 were loosening/lysis (27.8%), unexplained pain (15.1%) and dislocation/instability (14.7%). There were incremental increases in the annual number and incidence rates of rHR for fracture, infection, dislocation/instability and a decrease in rHR for aseptic loosening/lysis. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rate of rHR doubled from 2006 to 2012, likely due to high early failure rates of metal-on-metal hip replacements. The incidence of rHR then decreased by approximately 25% from 2012 to 2019, followed by a large decrease during the COVID-19 pandemic. The decrease in the number of rHR performed for aseptic loosening/lysis may reflect improved wear and implant longevity. Increased healthcare resource will be required to care for the increasing numbers of patients undergoing rHR for fracture and infection.

Psychometric Evaluation of the PedsQL GCS and CHU9D in Australian Children and Adolescents with Common Chronic Health Conditions.

BACKGROUND: Generic instruments such as the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ v4.0 Generic Core Scales (PedsQL GCS) and Child Health Utility 9D (CHU9D) are widely used to assess health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of the general childhood population, but there is a paucity of information about their psychometric properties in children with specific health conditions. This study assessed psychometric properties, including acceptability, reliability, validity, and responsiveness, of the PedsQL GCS and the CHU9D in children and adolescents with a range of common chronic health problems. METHODS: We used data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), for children aged 10-17 years with at least one of the following six parent-reported health conditions: asthma, anxiety/depression, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism/Asperger's, epilepsy, and type 1 diabetes mellitus. The LSAC used parent proxy-reported PedsQL GCS and child self-reported CHU9D assessments. The performance of each instrument (PedsQL GCS and CHU9D) for each psychometric property (acceptability, reliability, validity, and responsiveness) was assessed against established criteria. RESULTS: The study sample included 7201 children and adolescents (mean age = 14 years; range 10.1-17.9 years; 49% female) with 15,568 longitudinal observations available for analyses. Across the six health conditions, acceptability of the PedsQL GCS was high, while acceptability for the CHU9D was mixed. Both the PedsQL GCS and CHU9D showed strong internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha range: PedsQL GCS = 0.70-0.95, CHU9D = 0.76-0.84; item-total correlations range: PedsQL GCS = 0.35-0.84, CHU9D = 0.32-0.70). However, convergent validity for both the PedsQL GCS and CHU9D was generally weak (Spearman's correlations ≤ 0.3). Known group validity was strong for the PedsQL GCS (HRQOL differences were detected for children with and without asthma, anxiety/depression, ADHD, autism/Asperger's, and epilepsy). CHU9D was only able to discriminate between children with and without anxiety/depression, ADHD, and autism/Asperger's. The responsiveness of both the PedsQL GCS and CHU9D was variable across the six conditions, and most of the estimated effect sizes were relatively small (< 0.5). CONCLUSION: This study expands the evidence base of psychometric performance of the PedsQL GCS and CHU9D and can aid in appropriate HRQOL instrument selection for the required context by researchers and clinicians.

Predicting 10-year breast cancer mortality risk in the general female population in England: a model development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying female individuals at highest risk of developing life-threatening breast cancers could inform novel stratified early detection and prevention strategies to reduce breast cancer mortality, rather than only considering cancer incidence. We aimed to develop a prognostic model that accurately predicts the 10-year risk of breast cancer mortality in female individuals without breast cancer at baseline. METHODS: In this model development and validation study, we used an open cohort study from the QResearch primary care database, which was linked to secondary care and national cancer and mortality registers in England, UK. The data extracted were from female individuals aged 20-90 years without previous breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ who entered the cohort between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2020. The primary outcome was breast cancer-related death, which was assessed in the full dataset. Cox proportional hazards, competing risks regression, XGBoost, and neural network modelling approaches were used to predict the risk of breast cancer death within 10 years using routinely collected health-care data. Death due to causes other than breast cancer was the competing risk. Internal-external validation was used to evaluate prognostic model performance (using Harrell's C, calibration slope, and calibration in the large), performance heterogeneity, and transportability. Internal-external validation involved dataset partitioning by time period and geographical region. Decision curve analysis was used to assess clinical utility. FINDINGS: We identified data for 11 626 969 female individuals, with 70 095 574 person-years of follow-up. There were 142 712 (1·2%) diagnoses of breast cancer, 24 043 (0·2%) breast cancer-related deaths, and 696 106 (6·0%) deaths from other causes. Meta-analysis pooled estimates of Harrell's C were highest for the competing risks model (0·932, 95% CI 0·917-0·946). The competing risks model was well calibrated overall (slope 1·011, 95% CI 0·978-1·044), and across different ethnic groups. Decision curve analysis suggested favourable clinical utility across all age groups. The XGBoost and neural network models had variable performance across age and ethnic groups. INTERPRETATION: A model that predicts the combined risk of developing and then dying from breast cancer at the population level could inform stratified screening or chemoprevention strategies. Further evaluation of the competing risks model should comprise effect and health economic assessment of model-informed strategies. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Views, obstacles, and uncertainties around the inclusion of children and young people's time in economic evaluations: Findings from an international survey of health economists.

People's time is a limited resource and, in economic evaluations that adopt a societal perspective, it is important that it is valued and accounted for. Yet, in economic evaluations of interventions for children and young people (CYP), attempts to take into account the opportunity cost of their time are rare. To understand why this is the case, we need to first understand what views health economists hold in relation to CYP time, and what challenges they face in incorporating this in their evaluations. We planned and carried out an international survey of health economists. We used a combination of approaches to identify potential survey respondents (the survey's sampling frame), we developed a questionnaire that sought to capture respondents' views and practice through close- and open-ended questions, we piloted the questionnaire through a series of cognitive interviews, and we e-mailed unique links to the final version of the questionnaire to 1956 individuals in the sampling frame. We analysed data using quantitative (descriptive and inferential statistics) and qualitative (thematic analysis) methods. We received 274 complete responses. Most respondents (87%) believe CYP time should be considered for inclusion in economic evaluations conducted from a societal perspective. However, they identify a number of obstacles to doing so, most prominently uncertainties around appropriate practice (e.g., when CYP's time should or should not be included in calculations), methodological gaps (e.g., what value to attach to CYP's time), and practical difficulties in measuring displaced time in CYP. Reporting on their own practice, most respondents found it challenging to consider CYP time in their studies, and stressed the need for clear guidance on when, and further research on how, to appropriately account for CYP's time in economic evaluations. We offer our views on how to move the topic forwards and make suggestions further research.

Platform adaptive trial of novel antivirals for early treatment of COVID-19 In the community (PANORAMIC): protocol for a randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial of community novel antiviral treatment of COVID-19 in people at increased risk of more severe disease.

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent need to determine the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: PANORAMIC is a UK-wide, open-label, prospective, adaptive, multiarm platform, randomised clinical trial that evaluates antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in the community. A master protocol governs the addition of new antiviral treatments as they become available, and the introduction and cessation of existing interventions via interim analyses. The first two interventions to be evaluated are molnupiravir (Lagevrio) and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: community-dwelling within 5 days of onset of symptomatic COVID-19 (confirmed by PCR or lateral flow test), and either (1) aged 50 years and over, or (2) aged 18-49 years with qualifying comorbidities. Registration occurs via the trial website and by telephone. Recruitment occurs remotely through the central trial team, or in person through clinical sites. Participants are randomised to receive either usual care or a trial drug plus usual care. Outcomes are collected via a participant-completed daily electronic symptom diary for 28 days post randomisation. Participants and/or their Trial Partner are contacted by the research team after days 7, 14 and 28 if the diary is not completed, or if the participant is unable to access the diary. The primary efficacy endpoint is all-cause, non-elective hospitalisation and/or death within 28 days of randomisation. Multiple prespecified interim analyses allow interventions to be stopped for futility or superiority based on prespecified decision criteria. A prospective economic evaluation is embedded within the trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval granted by South Central-Berkshire REC number: 21/SC/0393; IRAS project ID: 1004274. Results will be presented to policymakers and at conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN30448031; EudraCT number: 2021-005748-31.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of nurse-delivered sleep restriction therapy for insomnia in primary care (HABIT): a pragmatic, superiority, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Insomnia is prevalent and distressing but access to the first-line treatment, cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), is extremely limited. We aimed to assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of sleep restriction therapy, a key component of CBT, which has the potential to be widely implemented. METHODS: We did a pragmatic, superiority, open-label, randomised controlled trial of sleep restriction therapy versus sleep hygiene. Adults with insomnia disorder were recruited from 35 general practices across England and randomly assigned (1:1) using a web-based randomisation programme to either four sessions of nurse-delivered sleep restriction therapy plus a sleep hygiene booklet or a sleep hygiene booklet only. There was no restriction on usual care for either group. Outcomes were assessed at 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. The primary endpoint was self-reported insomnia severity at 6 months measured with the insomnia severity index (ISI). The primary analysis included participants according to their allocated group and who contributed at least one outcome measurement. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from the UK National Health Service and personal social services perspective and expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The trial was prospectively registered (ISRCTN42499563). FINDINGS: Between Aug 29, 2018, and March 23, 2020 we randomly assigned 642 participants to sleep restriction therapy (n=321) or sleep hygiene (n=321). Mean age was 55·4 years (range 19-88), with 489 (76·2%) participants being female and 153 (23·8%) being male. 580 (90·3%) participants provided data for at least one outcome measurement. At 6 months, mean ISI score was 10·9 (SD 5·5) for sleep restriction therapy and 13·9 (5·2) for sleep hygiene (adjusted mean difference -3·05, 95% CI -3·83 to -2·28; p<0·0001; Cohen's d -0·74), indicating that participants in the sleep restriction therapy group reported lower insomnia severity than the sleep hygiene group. The incremental cost per QALY gained was £2076, giving a 95·3% probability that treatment was cost-effective at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000. Eight participants in each group had serious adverse events, none of which were judged to be related to intervention. INTERPRETATION: Brief nurse-delivered sleep restriction therapy in primary care reduces insomnia symptoms, is likely to be cost-effective, and has the potential to be widely implemented as a first-line treatment for insomnia disorder. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Patient-Relevant Outcomes Following First Revision Total Knee Arthroplasty, by Diagnosis: An Analysis of Implant Survivorship, Mortality, Serious Medical Complications, and Patient-Reported Outcome Measures Utilizing the National Joint Registry Data Set.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to investigate patient-relevant outcomes following first revision total knee arthroplasties (rTKAs) performed for different indications. METHODS: This population-based cohort study utilized data from the United Kingdom National Joint Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care, National Health Service Patient-Reported Outcome Measures, and the Civil Registrations of Death. Patients undergoing a first rTKA between January 1, 2009, and June 30, 2019, were included in our data set. Patient-relevant outcomes included implant survivorship (up to 11 years postoperatively), mortality and serious medical complications (up to 90 days postoperatively), and patient-reported outcome measures (at 6 months postoperatively). RESULTS: A total of 24,540 first rTKAs were analyzed. The patient population was 54% female and 62% White, with a mean age at the first rTKA of 69 years. At 2 years postoperatively, the cumulative incidence of re-revision surgery ranged from 2.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9% to 3.4%) following rTKA for progressive arthritis to 16.3% (95% CI, 15.2% to 17.4%) following rTKA for infection. The mortality rate at 90 days was highest following rTKA for fracture (3.6% [95% CI, 2.5% to 5.1%]) and for infection (1.8% [95% CI, 1.5% to 2.2%]) but was <0.5% for other indications. The rate of serious medical complications requiring hospital admission within 90 days was highest for patients treated for fracture (21.8% [95% CI, 17.9% to 26.3%]) or infection (12.5% [95% CI, 11.2% to 13.9%]) and was lowest for those treated for progressive arthritis (4.3% [95% CI, 3.3% to 5.5%]). Patients who underwent rTKA for stiffness or unexplained pain had some of the poorest postoperative joint function (mean Oxford Knee Score, 24 and 25 points, respectively) and had the lowest proportion of responders (48% and 55%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study found large differences in patient-relevant outcomes among different indications for first rTKA. The rate of complications was highest following rTKA for fracture or infection. Although rTKA resulted in large improvements in joint function for most patients, those who underwent surgery for stiffness and unexplained pain had worse outcomes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Level III . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.