Incomplete recovery of tree community composition and rare species after 120 years of tropical forest succession in Panama.

Determining how fully tropical forests regenerating on abandoned land recover characteristics of old-growth forests is increasingly important for understanding their role in conserving rare species and maintaining ecosystem services. Despite this, our understanding of forest structure and community composition recovery throughout succession is incomplete, as many tropical chronosequences do not extend beyond the first 50 years of succession. Here, we examined trajectories of forest recovery across eight 1-hectare plots in middle and later stages of forest succession (40-120 years) and five 1-hectare old-growth plots, in the Barro Colorado Nature Monument (BCNM), Panama. We first verified that forest age had a greater effect than edaphic or topographic variation on forest structure, diversity and composition and then corroborated results from smaller plots censused 20 years previously. Tree species diversity (but not species richness) and forest structure had fully recovered to old-growth levels by 40 and 90 years, respectively. However, rare species were missing, and old-growth specialists were in low abundance, in the mid- and late secondary forest plots, leading to incomplete recovery of species composition even by 120 years into succession. We also found evidence that dominance early in succession by a long-lived pioneer led to altered forest structure and delayed recovery of species diversity and composition well past a century after land abandonment. Our results illustrate the critical importance of old-growth and old secondary forests for biodiversity conservation, given that recovery of community composition may take several centuries, particularly when a long-lived pioneer dominates in early succession. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

Determinar en que medida los bosques tropicales que se regeneran en tierras abandonadas recuperan las características de los bosques primarios es cada vez más importante para comprender su papel en la conservación de especies raras y el mantenimiento de los servicios ecosistémicos. A pesar de ello, nuestro entendimiento sobre la recuperación de la estructura del bosque y la composición de la comunidad a lo largo de la sucesión es incompleta, ya que muchas cronosecuencias tropicales no van más allá de los primeros 50 años de sucesión. En este estudio, investigamos las trayectorias de recuperación del bosque en ocho parcelas de 1 hectárea en estadíos medios y tardíos de la sucesión forestal (40­120 años) y cinco parcelas de 1 hectárea de bosque primario, en el Monumento Natural Barro Colorado (MNBC), Panamá. En primer lugar, verificamos que la edad del bosque tenía un mayor efecto que la variación edáfica o topográfica en la estructura, diversidad y composición del bosque y luego corroboramos los resultados de parcelas más pequeñas estudiadas 20 años antes. La diversidad de especies arbóreas, pero no la riqueza de especies, y la estructura forestal se habían recuperado completamente hasta alcanzar los niveles de bosque primario a los 40 y 90 años, respectivamente. Sin embargo, los bosques secundarios carecían de especies raras y presentaban una escasa abundancia de especies especialistas del bosque antiguo, lo que condujo a una recuperación incompleta de la composición de especies, incluso a 120 años de sucesión. También encontramos pruebas de que el predominio de un pionero longevo en las primeras etapas de la sucesión provocó una alteración de la estructura forestal y retrasó la recuperación de la diversidad y composición de especies más allá de un siglo después el abandono de las tierras. Nuestros resultados ilustran la importancia crítica de los bosques primarios y secundarios más antiguos para la conservación de la biodiversidad, dado que la recuperación de la composición de la comunidad puede llevar varios siglos, especialmente cuando un pionero longevo domina en la sucesión temprana.

Global dominance of lianas over trees is driven by forest disturbance, climate and topography.

Growing evidence suggests that liana competition with trees is threatening the global carbon sink by slowing the recovery of forests following disturbance. A recent theory based on local and regional evidence further proposes that the competitive success of lianas over trees is driven by interactions between forest disturbance and climate. We present the first global assessment of liana-tree relative performance in response to forest disturbance and climate drivers. Using an unprecedented dataset, we analysed 651 vegetation samples representing 26,538 lianas and 82,802 trees from 556 unique locations worldwide, derived from 83 publications. Results show that lianas perform better relative to trees (increasing liana-to-tree ratio) when forests are disturbed, under warmer temperatures and lower precipitation and towards the tropical lowlands. We also found that lianas can be a critical factor hindering forest recovery in disturbed forests experiencing liana-favourable climates, as chronosequence data show that high competitive success of lianas over trees can persist for decades following disturbances, especially when the annual mean temperature exceeds 27.8°C, precipitation is less than 1614 mm and climatic water deficit is more than 829 mm. These findings reveal that degraded tropical forests with environmental conditions favouring lianas are disproportionately more vulnerable to liana dominance and thus can potentially stall succession, with important implications for the global carbon sink, and hence should be the highest priority to consider for restoration management.

Des preuves de plus en plus nombreuses suggèrent que la competition entre lianes et les arbres menace le puits de carbone mondial en ralentissant la récupération des forêts après une perturbation. Une théorie récente, fondée sur des observations locales et régionales, propose en outre que le succès compétitif des lianes sur les arbres est dû aux interactions entre la perturbation forestière et le climat. Nous présentons la première évaluation mondiale de la performance relative des lianes par rapport aux arbres en réponse aux perturbations forestières et aux facteurs climatiques. En utilisant un ensemble de données sans précédent, nous avons analysé 651 échantillons de végétation représentant 26,538 lianes et 82,802 arbres, issus de 556 emplacements uniques dans le monde entier, tirés de 83 publications. Les résultats montrent que les lianes ont de meilleure performances par rapport aux arbres (augmentation du ratio liane-arbre) lorsque les forêts sont perturbées, sous des zones chaudes aves précipitations faibles, et vers les basses altitudes tropicales. Nous avons également constaté que les lianes peuvent être un facteur critique entravant la récupération des forêts dans les forêts perturbées connaissant des climats favorables aux lianes, car les données de chronoséquence montrent que le succès compétitif élevé des lianes sur les arbres peut persister pendant des décennies après les perturbations, surtout lorsque la température annuelle moyenne dépasse 27.8°C, que les précipitations sont inférieures à 1614 mm et que le déficit hydrique climatique est supérieur à 829 mm. Ces découvertes révèlent que les forêts tropicales dégradées avec des conditions environnementales favorables aux lianes sont disproportionnellement plus vulnérables à la dominance des lianes, et peuvent ainsi potentiellement entraver la succession, avec d'importantes implications pour le puits de carbone mondial et devraient donc être la plus haute priorité à considérer pour la gestion de la restauration.

Climate-driven variation in dispersal ability predicts responses to forest fragmentation in birds.

Species sensitivity to forest fragmentation varies latitudinally, peaking in the tropics. A prominent explanation for this pattern is that historical landscape disturbance at higher latitudes has removed fragmentation-sensitive species or promoted the evolution of more resilient survivors. However, it is unclear whether this so-called extinction filter is the dominant driver of geographic variation in fragmentation sensitivity, particularly because climatic factors may also cause latitudinal gradients in dispersal ability, a key trait mediating sensitivity to habitat fragmentation. Here we combine field survey data with a morphological proxy for avian dispersal ability (hand-wing index) to assess responses to forest fragmentation in 1,034 bird species worldwide. We find that fragmentation sensitivity is strongly predicted by dispersal limitation and that other factors-latitude, body mass and historical disturbance events-have relatively limited explanatory power after accounting for species differences in dispersal. We also show that variation in dispersal ability is only weakly predicted by historical disturbance and more strongly associated with intra-annual temperature fluctuations (seasonality). Our results suggest that climatic factors play a dominant role in driving global variation in the impacts of forest fragmentation, emphasizing the need for more nuanced environmental policies that take into account local context and associated species traits.

How Social Considerations Improve the Equity and Effectiveness of Ecosystem Restoration.

Ecosystem restoration is an important means to address global sustainability challenges. However, scientific and policy discourse often overlooks the social processes that influence the equity and effectiveness of restoration interventions. In the present article, we outline how social processes that are critical to restoration equity and effectiveness can be better incorporated in restoration science and policy. Drawing from existing case studies, we show how projects that align with local people's preferences and are implemented through inclusive governance are more likely to lead to improved social, ecological, and environmental outcomes. To underscore the importance of social considerations in restoration, we overlay existing global restoration priority maps, population, and the Human Development Index (HDI) to show that approximately 1.4 billion people, disproportionately belonging to groups with low HDI, live in areas identified by previous studies as being of high restoration priority. We conclude with five action points for science and policy to promote equity-centered restoration.

A systems approach framework for evaluating tree restoration interventions for social and ecological outcomes in rural tropical landscapes.

The science guiding design and evaluation of restoration interventions in tropical landscapes is dominated by ecological processes and outcomes and lacks indicators and methods that integrate human wellbeing into the restoration process. We apply a new systems approach framework for tree restoration in forest-agricultural landscapes to show how this shortcoming can be addressed. Demonstrating 'proof of concept', we tested statistical models underlying the framework pathways with data collected from a case study in Tanzania. Local community perceptions of nature's values were not affected by levels of self-reported wildlife-induced crop damage. But mapped predictions from the systems approach under a tree restoration scenario suggested differential outcomes for biodiversity indicators and altered spatial patterns of crop damage risk, expected to jeopardize human wellbeing. The predictions map anticipated trade-offs in costs and benefits of restoration scenarios, which we have started to explore with stakeholders to identify restoration opportunities that consider local knowledge, value systems and human wellbeing. We suggest that the framework be applied to other landscapes to identify commonalities and differences in forest landscape restoration outcomes under varying governance and land use systems. This should form a foundation for evidence-based implementation of the global drive for forest landscape restoration, at local scales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Fifteen essential science advances needed for effective restoration of the world's forest landscapes.

There has never been a more pressing and opportune time for science and practice to collaborate towards restoration of the world's forests. Multiple uncertainties remain for achieving successful, long-term forest landscape restoration (FLR). In this article, we use expert knowledge and literature review to identify knowledge gaps that need closing to advance restoration practice, as an introduction to a landmark theme issue on FLR and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. Aligned with an Adaptive Management Cycle for FLR, we identify 15 essential science advances required to facilitate FLR success for nature and people. They highlight that the greatest science challenges lie in the conceptualization, planning and assessment stages of restoration, which require an evidence base for why, where and how to restore, at realistic scales. FLR and underlying sciences are complex, requiring spatially explicit approaches across disciplines and sectors, considering multiple objectives, drivers and trade-offs critical for decision-making and financing. The developing tropics are a priority region, where scientists must work with stakeholders across the Adaptive Management Cycle. Clearly communicated scientific evidence for action at the outset of restoration planning will enable donors, decision makers and implementers to develop informed objectives, realistic targets and processes for accountability. This article paves the way for 19 further articles in this theme issue, with author contributions from across the world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Pathways to win-wins or trade-offs? How certified community forests impact forest restoration and human wellbeing.

Certified community forests combine local governance with forest certification and aim to serve multiple objectives including forest protection, restoration, human wellbeing and equitable governance. However, the causal pathways by which they impact these objectives remain poorly understood. The ability of protected area impact evaluations to identify complex pathways is limited by a narrow focus on top-down theoretical, quantitative perspectives and inadequate consideration of local context. We used a novel mixed-methods research design that integrates the perspectives of multiple actors to develop a generalized conceptual model of the causal pathways for certified community forests. We tested the model using a combination of statistical matching, structural equation modelling and qualitative analyses for an agroforestry landscape in Tanzania. We found certified community forests positively impacted human wellbeing, equitable governance and forest restoration. Equitable governance had the largest impact on wellbeing, followed by crop yield and forest resource availability. Timber revenues varied widely between villages and the average effect of financial benefits did not impact wellbeing due to the immature stage of the certified timber market. We identified positive interactions and trade-offs between conservation and agriculture. Our findings suggest that no simple solution exists for meeting multiple objectives. However, developing understanding of the pathways linking social and conservation outcomes can help identify opportunities to promote synergies and mitigate negative impacts to reconcile competing objectives. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

A practice-led assessment of landscape restoration potential in a biodiversity hotspot.

Effective restoration planning tools are needed to mitigate global carbon and biodiversity crises. Published spatial assessments of restoration potential are often at large scales or coarse resolutions inappropriate for local action. Using a Tanzanian case study, we introduce a systematic approach to inform landscape restoration planning, estimating spatial variation in cost-effectiveness, based on restoration method, logistics, biomass modelling and uncertainty mapping. We found potential for biomass recovery across 77.7% of a 53 000 km2 region, but with some natural spatial discontinuity in moist forest biomass, that was previously assigned to human causes. Most areas with biomass deficit (80.5%) were restorable through passive or assisted natural regeneration. However, cumulative biomass gains from planting outweighed initially high implementation costs meaning that, where applicable, this method yielded greater long-term returns on investment. Accounting for ecological, funding and other uncertainty, the top 25% consistently cost-effective sites were within protected areas and/or moderately degraded moist forest and savanna. Agro-ecological mosaics had high biomass deficit but little cost-effective restoration potential. Socio-economic research will be needed to inform action towards environmental and human development goals in these areas. Our results highlight value in long-term landscape restoration investments and separate treatment of savannas and forests. Furthermore, they contradict previously asserted low restoration potential in East Africa, emphasizing the importance of our regional approach for identifying restoration opportunities across the tropics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

StrucNet: a global network for automated vegetation structure monitoring.

Climate change and increasing human activities are impacting ecosystems and their biodiversity. Quantitative measurements of essential biodiversity variables (EBV) and essential climate variables are used to monitor biodiversity and carbon dynamics and evaluate policy and management interventions. Ecosystem structure is at the core of EBVs and carbon stock estimation and can help to inform assessments of species and species diversity. Ecosystem structure is also used as an indirect indicator of habitat quality and expected species richness or species community composition. Spaceborne measurements can provide large-scale insight into monitoring the structural dynamics of ecosystems, but they generally lack consistent, robust, timely and detailed information regarding their full three-dimensional vegetation structure at local scales. Here we demonstrate the potential of high-frequency ground-based laser scanning to systematically monitor structural changes in vegetation. We present a proof-of-concept high-temporal ecosystem structure time series of 5 years in a temperate forest using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). We also present data from automated high-temporal laser scanning that can allow upscaling of vegetation structure scanning, overcoming the limitations of a typically opportunistic TLS measurement approach. Automated monitoring will be a critical component to build a network of field monitoring sites that can provide the required calibration data for satellite missions to effectively monitor the structural dynamics of vegetation over large areas. Within this perspective, we reflect on how this network could be designed and discuss implementation pathways.

Agroecological practices increase farmers' well-being in an agricultural growth corridor in Tanzania.

Millions of people rely on nature-rich farming systems for their subsistence and income. The contributions of nature to these systems are varied and key to their sustainability in the long term. Yet, agricultural stakeholders are often unaware or undervalue the relevance of those contributions, which can affect decisions concerning land management. There is limited knowledge on how farming practices and especially those that build more strongly on nature, including agroecological practices, may shape farmers' livelihoods and well-being. We aim to determine the effect that farmer perception of contributions from nature, socioeconomic conditions, and farming practices, have on outcomes related to food security and human well-being. We conducted 467 household surveys in an agricultural growth corridor in rural Tanzania, which is also essential for nature conservation due to its high biodiversity and its strategic location between several protected areas encompassing wetland, forest, and grassland habitats. Results show that implementing more agroecological practices at farm scale has a positive effect on farmer well-being in the study landscape. Results also indicate that higher awareness of benefits from nature, as well as engagement with agricultural extension services, are associated with higher number of agroecological practices applied in the farm. This research confirms the relevance of capacity-building initiatives to scale up the uptake of agroecological practices in the tropics. It also shows, using empirical evidence, that farming practices taking advantage of nature's contributions to people can positively affect food security and human well-being, even when those practices complement conventional ones, such as the use of synthetic inputs. Understanding the impact of agroecological farming on the well-being of smallholder farmers in the tropics paves the way for policy and program development that ensures global food demands are met in a sustainable way without compromising the well-being of some of the world's most vulnerable people.

Meeting sustainable development goals via robotics and autonomous systems.

Robotics and autonomous systems are reshaping the world, changing healthcare, food production and biodiversity management. While they will play a fundamental role in delivering the UN Sustainable Development Goals, associated opportunities and threats are yet to be considered systematically. We report on a horizon scan evaluating robotics and autonomous systems impact on all Sustainable Development Goals, involving 102 experts from around the world. Robotics and autonomous systems are likely to transform how the Sustainable Development Goals are achieved, through replacing and supporting human activities, fostering innovation, enhancing remote access and improving monitoring. Emerging threats relate to reinforcing inequalities, exacerbating environmental change, diverting resources from tried-and-tested solutions and reducing freedom and privacy through inadequate governance. Although predicting future impacts of robotics and autonomous systems on the Sustainable Development Goals is difficult, thoroughly examining technological developments early is essential to prevent unintended detrimental consequences. Additionally, robotics and autonomous systems should be considered explicitly when developing future iterations of the Sustainable Development Goals to avoid reversing progress or exacerbating inequalities.

Support for the habitat amount hypothesis from a global synthesis of species density studies.

Decades of research suggest that species richness depends on spatial characteristics of habitat patches, especially their size and isolation. In contrast, the habitat amount hypothesis predicts that (1) species richness in plots of fixed size (species density) is more strongly and positively related to the amount of habitat around the plot than to patch size or isolation; (2) habitat amount better predicts species density than patch size and isolation combined, (3) there is no effect of habitat fragmentation per se on species density and (4) patch size and isolation effects do not become stronger with declining habitat amount. Data on eight taxonomic groups from 35 studies around the world support these predictions. Conserving species density requires minimising habitat loss, irrespective of the configuration of the patches in which that habitat is contained.

Extinction filters mediate the global effects of habitat fragmentation on animals.

Habitat loss is the primary driver of biodiversity decline worldwide, but the effects of fragmentation (the spatial arrangement of remaining habitat) are debated. We tested the hypothesis that forest fragmentation sensitivity-affected by avoidance of habitat edges-should be driven by historical exposure to, and therefore species' evolutionary responses to disturbance. Using a database containing 73 datasets collected worldwide (encompassing 4489 animal species), we found that the proportion of fragmentation-sensitive species was nearly three times as high in regions with low rates of historical disturbance compared with regions with high rates of disturbance (i.e., fires, glaciation, hurricanes, and deforestation). These disturbances coincide with a latitudinal gradient in which sensitivity increases sixfold at low versus high latitudes. We conclude that conservation efforts to limit edges created by fragmentation will be most important in the world's tropical forests.

Forest floor temperature and greenness link significantly to canopy attributes in South Africa's fragmented coastal forests.

Tropical landscapes are changing rapidly due to changes in land use and land management. Being able to predict and monitor land use change impacts on species for conservation or food security concerns requires the use of habitat quality metrics, that are consistent, can be mapped using above-ground sensor data and are relevant for species performance. Here, we focus on ground surface temperature (Thermal ground) and ground vegetation greenness (NDVI down) as potentially suitable metrics of habitat quality. Both have been linked to species demography and community structure in the literature. We test whether they can be measured consistently from the ground and whether they can be up-scaled indirectly using canopy structure maps (Leaf Area Index, LAI, and Fractional vegetation cover, FCover) developed from Landsat remote sensing data. We measured Thermal ground and NDVI down across habitats differing in tree cover (natural grassland to forest edges to forests and tree plantations) in the human-modified coastal forested landscapes of Kwa-Zulua Natal, South Africa. We show that both metrics decline significantly with increasing canopy closure and leaf area, implying a potential pathway for upscaling both metrics using canopy structure maps derived using earth observation. Specifically, our findings suggest that opening forest canopies by 20% or decreasing forest canopy LAI by one unit would result in increases of Thermal ground by 1.2 °C across the range of observations studied. NDVI down appears to decline by 0.1 in response to an increase in canopy LAI by 1 unit and declines nonlinearly with canopy closure. Accounting for micro-scale variation in temperature and resources is seen as essential to improve biodiversity impact predictions. Our study suggests that mapping ground surface temperature and ground vegetation greenness utilising remotely sensed canopy cover maps could provide a useful tool for mapping habitat quality metrics that matter to species. However, this approach will be constrained by the predictive capacity of models used to map field-derived forest canopy attributes. Furthermore, sampling efforts are needed to capture spatial and temporal variation in Thermal ground within and across days and seasons to validate the transferability of our findings. Finally, whilst our approach shows that surface temperature and ground vegetation greenness might be suitable habitat quality metric used in biodiversity monitoring, the next step requires that we map demographic traits of species of different threat status onto maps of these metrics in landscapes differing in disturbance and management histories. The derived understanding could then be exploited for targeted landscape restoration that benefits biodiversity conservation at the landscape scale.

Land-use change alters the mechanisms assembling rainforest mammal communities in Borneo.

The assembly of species communities at local scales is thought to be driven by environmental filtering, species interactions and spatial processes such as dispersal limitation. Little is known about how the relative balance of these drivers of community assembly changes along environmental gradients, especially man-made environmental gradients associated with land-use change. Using concurrent camera- and live-trapping, we investigated the local-scale assembly of mammal communities along a gradient of land-use intensity (old-growth forest, logged forest and oil palm plantations) in Borneo. We hypothesised that increasing land-use intensity would lead to an increasing dominance of environmental control over spatial processes in community assembly. Additionally, we hypothesised that competitive interactions among species might reduce in concert with declines in α-diversity (previously documented) along the land-use gradient. To test our first hypothesis, we partitioned community variance into the fractions explained by environmental and spatial variables. To test our second hypothesis, we used probabilistic models of expected species co-occurrence patterns, in particular focussing on the prevalence of spatial avoidance between species. Spatial avoidance might indicate competition, but might also be due to divergent habitat preferences. We found patterns that are consistent with a shift in the fundamental mechanics governing local community assembly. In support of our first hypothesis, the importance of spatial processes (dispersal limitation and fine-scale patterns of home-ranging) appeared to decrease from low to high intensity land-uses, whilst environmental control increased in importance (in particular due to fine-scale habitat structure). Support for our second hypothesis was weak: whilst we found that the prevalence of spatial avoidance decreased along the land-use gradient, in particular between congeneric species pairs most likely to be in competition, few instances of spatial avoidance were detected in any land-use, and most were likely due to divergent habitat preferences. The widespread changes in land-use occurring in the tropics might be altering not just the biodiversity found in landscapes, but also the fundamental mechanics governing the local assembly of communities. A better understanding of these mechanics, for a range of taxa, could underpin more effective conservation and management of threatened tropical landscapes.

Harvesting fodder trees in montane forests in Kenya: species, techniques used and impacts.

There has been an increasing interest in fodder trees and their potential to help the rural poor. However, few studies have addressed the ecological impacts of fodder tree harvesting. We investigated the species harvested and the techniques used, and the effects of fodder harvesting on (1) species' populations and (2) forest carbon stocks in three montane forests in Kenya. Focus-group discussions were organized in 36 villages to determine which species were harvested and with which techniques. Field observations were made on vegetation plots: stem diameter, tree height, species and extent of harvest were recorded. Carbon stocks were calculated using an allometric equation with (1) observed height of harvested trees, and (2) potential height estimated with a power model, and results were compared. Eight tree species were commonly harvested for fodder using different techniques (some branches, main stem, most branches except stem apex). Fodder harvesting (together with other uses for some species) negatively affected one species populations (Olea europaea), it did not negatively affect four (Drypetes gerrardii, Gymnosporia heterophylla, Pavetta gardeniifolia, Xymalos monospora), and more information is needed for three species (Olea capensis, Prunus africana, Rinorea convallarioides). Fodder harvesting did not significantly reduce forest carbon stocks, suggesting that local communities could continue using these fodder trees if a carbon project is established. Among the fodder species studied, X. monospora could be used in reforestation programs, as it has multiple uses and can withstand severe pruning. Although our study is only a snapshot, it is a baseline which can be used to monitor changes in fodder harvesting and its impacts related to increasing droughts in northern Kenya and increasing human populations.