Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning.

Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dynamical models can successfully forecast sea ice concentration several weeks ahead, they struggle to outperform simple statistical benchmarks at longer lead times. We present a probabilistic, deep learning sea ice forecasting system, IceNet. The system has been trained on climate simulations and observational data to forecast the next 6 months of monthly-averaged sea ice concentration maps. We show that IceNet advances the range of accurate sea ice forecasts, outperforming a state-of-the-art dynamical model in seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice, particularly for extreme sea ice events. This step-change in sea ice forecasting ability brings us closer to conservation tools that mitigate risks associated with rapid sea ice loss.

Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea.

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future.

Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability.

Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers, disintegration of floating ice shelves and a 'greening' through the expansion in range of various flora. Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion, local sea-ice loss, an increase in westerly winds, and changes in the strength and location of low-high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation.

Recent changes in Antarctic Sea Ice.

In contrast to the Arctic, total sea ice extent (SIE) across the Southern Ocean has increased since the late 1970s, with the annual mean increasing at a rate of 186×10(3) km(2) per decade (1.5% per decade; p<0.01) for 1979-2013. However, this overall increase masks larger regional variations, most notably an increase (decrease) over the Ross (Amundsen-Bellingshausen) Sea. Sea ice variability results from changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions, although the former is thought to be more significant, since there is a high correlation between anomalies in the ice concentration and the near-surface wind field. The Southern Ocean SIE trend is dominated by the increase in the Ross Sea sector, where the SIE is significantly correlated with the depth of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which has deepened since 1979. The depth of the ASL is influenced by a number of external factors, including tropical sea surface temperatures, but the low also has a large locally driven intrinsic variability, suggesting that SIE in these areas is especially variable. Many of the current generation of coupled climate models have difficulty in simulating sea ice. However, output from the better-performing IPCC CMIP5 models suggests that the recent increase in Antarctic SIE may be within the bounds of intrinsic/internal variability.

Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean.

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21(st) century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat's ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Replication and meta-analysis of candidate loci identified variation at RAB3GAP1 associated with keratoconus.

PURPOSE: Keratoconus is a common complex corneal ectasia that can lead to severe visual impairment. Although a genetic component is well recognized, the genetic risk factors for keratoconus are yet to be fully elucidated. A recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) by Li et al. identified 15 potentially associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Here, we aimed to replicate these associations, and conduct a meta-analysis of the current and previous studies. METHODS: We genotyped the 15 reported associated SNPs in 524 Australian Caucasian cases with keratoconus and 2761 controls. Association analysis was conducted in PLINK. A meta-analysis of this study with the adjusted P values of the previously published GWAS was conducted using the method of Fisher to combine P values. RESULTS: Our Australian cohort showed association (P < 0.003) at SNPs near RAB3GAP1, KCND3, IMMPL2, and in a gene desert on chromosome 13q33.3, providing evidence of replication of the published results. The meta-analysis showed SNP rs4954218 near RAB3GAP1 gene was associated significantly with keratoconus, with P = 9.26 × 10(-9) passing the genome-wide significance level. CONCLUSIONS: Although the mechanism of disease association is yet to be determined, SNP rs4954218 is associated consistently with keratoconus and likely tags a functional variant that contributes to disease susceptibility.

Mutational analysis of MIR184 in sporadic keratoconus and myopia.

PURPOSE: A mutation miR-184(+57C>T) in the seed region of miR-184 (encoded by MIR184 [MIM*613146]) results in familial severe keratoconus combined with early-onset anterior polar cataract and endothelial dystrophy, iris hypoplasia, congenital cataract, and stromal thinning (EDICT) syndrome (MIM#614303). In order to investigate the phenotypic spectrum resulting from MIR184 mutation, MIR184 was sequenced in a keratoconus cohort of mixed ethnicity and a Chinese axial myopia cohort. METHODS: Sequencing of MIR184 was performed in 780 unrelated keratoconus patients and 96 unrelated Han southern Chinese subjects with axial myopia. Effects of identified mutations on RNA secondary structure were predicted computationally using mFold and RNAFold algorithms. MIR184 amplicons from patients harboring mutations were cloned and transfected into human embryonic kidney 293T (HEK293T) cells, and mature mutant miR-184 expression was analyzed by stem-loop real-time quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). RESULTS: Two novel heterozygous substitution mutations in MIR184 were identified in the two patients with isolated keratoconus: miR-184(+8C>A) and miR-184(+3A>G). Computational modeling predicted that these mutations would alter the miR-184 stem-loop stability and secondary structure. Ex vivo miR-184 expression analysis demonstrated that miR-184(+8C>A) almost completely repressed the expression of miR-184 (P = 0.022), and miR-184(+3A>G) reduced the expression of miR-184 by approximately 40% (P = 0.002). There was no significant association of rs41280052, which lies within the stem-loop of miR-184, with keratoconus. No MIR184 mutations were detected in the axial myopia cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Two novel heterozygous substitution mutations in MIR184 were identified in two patients with isolated keratoconus: miR-184(+8C>A) and miR-184(+3A>G). Mutations in MIR184 are a rare cause of keratoconus and were found in 2 of 780 (0.25%) cases.

Association of polymorphisms in the hepatocyte growth factor gene promoter with keratoconus.

PURPOSE: Keratoconus is a progressive disorder of the cornea that can lead to severe visual impairment or blindness. Although several genomic regions have been linked to rare familial forms of keratoconus, no genes have yet been definitively identified for common forms of the disease. METHODS: Two genome-wide association scans were undertaken in parallel. The first used pooled DNA from an Australian cohort, followed by typing of top-ranked single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in individual DNA samples. The second was conducted in individually genotyped patients, and controls from the USA. Tag SNPs around the hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) gene were typed in three additional replication cohorts. Serum levels of HGF protein in normal individuals were assessed with ELISA and correlated with genotype. RESULTS: The only SNP observed to be associated in both the pooled discovery and primary replication cohort was rs1014091, located upstream of the HGF gene. The nearby SNP rs3735520 was found to be associated in the individually typed discovery cohort (P = 6.1 × 10(-7)). Genotyping of tag SNPs around HGF revealed association at rs3735520 and rs17501108/rs1014091 in four of the five cohorts. Meta-analysis of all five datasets together yielded suggestive P values for rs3735520 (P = 9.9 × 10(-7)) and rs17501108 (P = 9.9 × 10(-5)). In addition, SNP rs3735520 was found to be associated with serum HGF level in normal individuals (P = 0.036). CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, these results implicate genetic variation at the HGF locus with keratoconus susceptibility.

Relationship of cerebrospinal fluid glucose metabolites to MRI deep white matter hyperintensities and treatment resistance in bipolar disorder patients.

OBJECTIVES: Both diabetes mellitus and magnetic resonance image (MRI) deep white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) are more common in bipolar disorder (BD) patients than in matched controls. Deep-as opposed to periventricular--WMHs and diabetes are associated with treatment resistance and poorer outcome. This study investigated whether brain glucose metabolism by the polyol pathway--a pathway linked to nervous tissue disease in diabetes--is related to deep WMH volume and treatment resistance in BD patients. METHODS: Volumes of fluid-attenuated inversion recovery WMHs were quantified and correlated with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of glucose metabolites in 20 nondiabetic patients with BD and nondiabetic comparison subjects with schizophrenia (n = 15) or transient neurologic symptoms (neurologic controls, n = 15). RESULTS: BD patients, but not schizophrenic patients, had significantly greater volumes of deep but not periventricular WMHs compared to neurologic controls. BD subjects also had significantly greater CSF concentrations of sorbitol and fructose (the polyol pathway metabolites of glucose) compared to controls. Significant positive correlations between CSF metabolites and WMH volumes were found only in the BD group and were between deep WMH volumes and CSF sorbitol (rho = 0.487, p = 0.029) and fructose (rho = 0.474, p = 0.035). An index of treatment resistance correlated significantly with deep WMH volume (rho = 0.578, p = 0.008), sorbitol (rho = 0.542, p = 0.013), and fructose (rho = 0.692, p = 0.001) in BD subjects but not in other subjects. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first reported evidence of relationships between abnormal brain glucose metabolism and both deep WMHs and treatment resistance in a group of BD patients. Further studies are necessary to determine the significance of these findings to BD pathophysiology.