Learning from perpetrator replacement to remove crime opportunities and prevent poaching of the Sundarbans tiger.

Illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is one of the leading causes of the decline in high-value species. Crime-reduction strategies to counter IWT can have unintended effects, with crime displacement occurring when offenders react to such interventions. Despite the value of understanding how and why displacement occurs for informing conservation strategies, few examples are published. We explored a case of perpetrator replacement following an intervention and drew lessons for conservation strategies for high-value species. Poaching and subsequent trade threaten the Sundarbans tiger (Panthera tigris). Pirate gangs were the dominant poachers from 1980 to 2017, but following an extensive campaign, the Sundarbans was declared pirate free in 2018. We interviewed 280 individuals, including 100 tiger poachers, from 26 administrative unions bordering the Sundarbans and used interviewee responses to compare the poaching situation during and after the pirate era. We analyzed the spatial distribution of tiger poachers among the unions and used crime script analysis of the dominant poacher type to identify intervention. Because pirates opportunistically poached tigers, the government's successful counter-pirate campaign inadvertently removed the dominant tiger poaching type. However, a temporary reduction in poaching was rapidly cancelled out by the emergence of at least 32 specialist tiger-poaching teams. With the risk of extortion and robbery from pirates gone, other groups increased the frequency of opportunistic and targeted tiger poaching. Based on expert interviews, we estimated that 341 tiger poachers of all types are active throughout the unions, with 79% of specialists concentrated in 27% of unions. The highly focused counter-pirate campaign reduced motivations and opportunities for piracy but left intact the opportunity structure and trade connections for tiger poaching, and with insufficient enforcement officers trading has flourished. Interventions targeting opportunities for poaching by specialist tiger poachers include heightened surveillance and reporting mechanisms and alternative livelihood provision to disincentivize poaching.

Aprendizaje a partir de la sustitución del infractor para eliminar las oportunidades de crimen y prevenir la caza furtiva del tigre de Sundarbans Resumen El mercado ilegal de fauna (MIF) es una de las principales causas de la declinación de especies importantes. Las estrategias de reducción de crímenes para contrarrestar el MIF pueden tener efectos no deseados, como el desplazamiento del crimen que ocurre cuando los infractores reaccionan a dichas intervenciones. A pesar de lo valioso que es para las estrategias de conservación entender cómo y por qué ocurre este desplazamiento, se publican pocos ejemplos. Exploramos un caso de sustitución del infractor después de una intervención sacamos lecciones para las estrategias de conservación de especies importantes. La caza furtiva y el mercado subsecuente son una amenaza para el tigre de Sundarbans (Panthera tigris). Los piratas fueron los cazadores dominantes entre 1980 y 2017, pero después de una campaña exhaustiva, el Sundarbans fue declarado libre de piratas en 2018. Entrevistamos a 280 individuos, incluidos 100 cazadores furtivos, de 26 uniones administrativas que rodean al Sundarbans y usamos sus respuestas para comparar la situación de la caza furtiva durante y después de los piratas. Analizamos la distribución espacial de los cazadores furtivos entre las uniones y usamos el análisis de escritura criminal del tipo dominante de cazador para identificar las intervenciones. Ya que los piratas eran cazadores furtivos oportunistas, la campaña exitosa del gobierno para contrarrestarlos eliminó sin saberlo el tipo dominante de caza furtiva. Sin embargo, una reducción temporal de la caza se canceló rápidamente con la emergencia de al menos 32 equipos especialistas en la cacería furtiva de los tigres. Sin el riesgo de la extorsión o robo por parte de los piratas, otros grupos incrementaron la frecuencia de la cacería oportunista y focalizada. Con base en las entrevistas a expertos, estimamos que 341 cazadores de tigres de todos los tipos están activos en las uniones, con 79% de los especialistas concentrados en 27% de las uniones. La campaña focalizada anti-piratas redujo las motivaciones y oportunidades de piratería, pero no afectó la estructura de oportunidades y conexiones mercantiles de la cacería furtiva de tigres, lo cual, sumado a la falta de suficientes agentes policiales, ha aumentado el mercado. Las intervenciones enfocadas en las oportunidades de cacería de los cazadores especialistas incluyen una mayor vigilancia y mecanismos de reporte y el suministro de sustentos alternativos para desalentar la cacería furtiva.

Continental divide: Predicting climate-mediated fragmentation and biodiversity loss in the boreal forest.

Climate change threatens natural landscapes through shifting distribution and abundance of species and attendant change in the structure and function of ecosystems. However, it remains unclear how climate-mediated variation in species' environmental niche space may lead to large-scale fragmentation of species distributions, altered meta-population dynamics and gene flow, and disrupted ecosystem integrity. Such change may be especially relevant when species distributions are restricted either spatially or to a narrow environmental niche, or when environments are rapidly changing. Here, we use range-wide environmental niche models to posit that climate-mediated range fragmentation aggravates the direct effects of climate change on species in the boreal forest of North America. We show that climate change will directly alter environmental niche suitability for boreal-obligate species of trees, birds and mammals (n = 12), with most species ranges becoming smaller and shifting northward through time. Importantly, species distributions will become increasingly fragmented, as characterized by smaller mean size and greater isolation of environmentally-suitable landscape patches. This loss is especially pronounced along the Ontario-Québec border, where the boreal forest is narrowest and roughly 78% of suitable niche space could disappear by 2080. Despite the diversity of taxa surveyed, patterns of range fragmentation are remarkably consistent, with our models predicting that spruce grouse (Dendragapus canadensis), boreal chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus), moose (Alces americanus) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) could have entirely disjunct east-west population segments in North America. These findings reveal potentially dire consequences of climate change on population continuity and species diversity in the boreal forest, highlighting the need to better understand: 1) extent and primary drivers of anticipated climate-mediated range loss and fragmentation; 2) diversity of species to be affected by such change; 3) potential for rapid adaptation in the most strongly-affected areas; and 4) potential for invasion by replacement species.

Predicting shifts in parasite distribution with climate change: a multitrophic level approach.

Climate change likely will lead to increasingly favourable environmental conditions for many parasites. However, predictions regarding parasitism's impacts often fail to account for the likely variability in host distribution and how this may alter parasite occurrence. Here, we investigate potential distributional shifts in the meningeal worm, Parelaphostrongylosis tenuis, a protostrongylid nematode commonly found in white-tailed deer in North America, whose life cycle also involves a free-living stage and a gastropod intermediate host. We modelled the distribution of the hosts and free-living larva as a complete assemblage to assess whether a complex trophic system will lead to an overall increase in parasite distribution with climate change, or whether divergent environmental niches may promote an ecological mismatch. Using an ensemble approach to climate modelling under two different carbon emission scenarios, we show that whereas the overall trend is for an increase in niche breadth for each species, mismatches arise in habitat suitability of the free-living larva vs. the definitive and intermediate hosts. By incorporating these projected mismatches into a combined model, we project a shift in parasite distribution accounting for all steps in the transmission cycle, and identify that overall habitat suitability of the parasite will decline in the Great Plains and southeastern USA, but will increase in the Boreal Forest ecoregion, particularly in Alberta. These results have important implications for wildlife conservation and management due to the known pathogenicity of parelaphostrongylosis to alternate hosts including moose, caribou and elk. Our results suggest that disease risk forecasts which fail to consider biotic interactions may be overly simplistic, and that accounting for each of the parasite's life stages is key to refining predicted responses to climate change.