The use of a simple three-level bronchoscopic assessment of inhalation injury to predict in-hospital mortality and duration of mechanical ventilation in patients with burns.

Major burn centres in Australia use bronchoscopy to assess severity of inhalation injuries despite limited evidence as to how best to classify severity of inhalational injury or its relationship to patient outcomes. All patients with burns who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) at The Alfred Hospital between February 2010 and July 2014 and underwent bronchoscopy to assess inhalational injury, were reviewed. Age, total body surface area burnt, severity of illness indices and mechanisms of injury were extracted from medical histories and local ICU and burns registries. Inhalational injury was classified based on the Abbreviated Injury Score and then grouped into three categories (none/mild, moderate, or severe injury). Univariable and multivariable analyses were undertaken to examine the relationship between inhalational injury and outcomes (in-hospital mortality and duration of mechanical ventilation). One hundred and twenty-eight patients were classified as having none/mild inhalational injury, 81 moderate, and 13 severe inhalation injury. Mortality in each group was 2.3% (3/128), 7.4% (6/81) and 30.7% (4/13) respectively. Median (interquartile range) duration of mechanical ventilation in each group was 26 (11-82) hours, 84 (32-232) hours and 94 (21-146) hours respectively. After adjusting for age, total body surface area burnt and severity of illness, only the severe inhalation injury group was independently associated with increased mortality (odds ratio 20.4 [95% confidence intervals {CI} 1.74 to 239.4], P=0.016). Moderate inhalation injury was independently associated with increased duration of ventilation (odds ratio 2.25 [95% CI 1.53 to 3.31], P <0.001), but not increased mortality. This study suggests that stratification of bronchoscopically-assessed inhalational injury into three categories can provide useful prognostic information about duration of ventilation and mortality. Larger multicentre prospective studies are required to validate these findings.

Predicting medical emergency team calls, cardiac arrest calls and re-admission after intensive care discharge: creation of a tool to identify at-risk patients.

We aimed to develop a predictive model for intensive care unit (ICU)-discharged patients at risk of post-ICU deterioration. We performed a retrospective, single-centre cohort observational study by linking the hospital admission, patient pathology, ICU, and medical emergency team (MET) databases. All patients discharged from the Alfred Hospital ICU to wards between July 2012 and June 2014 were included. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of any MET call, cardiac arrest call or ICU re-admission. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of outcome and develop a risk-stratification model. Four thousand, six hundred and thirty-two patients were included in the study. Of these, 878 (19%) patients had a MET call, 51 (1.1%) patients had cardiac arrest calls, 304 (6.5%) were re-admitted to ICU during the same hospital stay, and 964 (21%) had MET calls, cardiac arrest calls or ICU re-admission. A discriminatory predictive model was developed (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.72 [95% confidence intervals {CI} 0.70 to 0.73]) which identified the following factors: increasing age (odds ratio [OR] 1.012 [95% CI 1.007 to 1.017] P <0.001), ICU admission with subarachnoid haemorrhage (OR 2.26 [95% CI 1.22 to 4.16] P=0.009), admission to ICU from a ward (OR 1.67 [95% CI 1.31 to 2.13] P <0.001), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score without the age component (OR 1.005 [95% CI 1.001 to 1.010] P=0.025), tracheostomy on ICU discharge (OR 4.32 [95% CI 2.9 to 6.42] P <0.001) and discharge to cardiothoracic (OR 2.43 [95%CI 1.49 to 3.96] P <0.001) or oncology wards (OR 2.27 [95% CI 1.05 to 4.89] P=0.036). Over the two-year period, 361 patients were identified as having a greater than 50% chance of having post-ICU deterioration. Factors are identifiable to predict patients at risk of post-ICU deterioration. This knowledge could be used to guide patient follow-up after ICU discharge, optimise healthcare resources, and improve patient outcomes and service delivery.

Central line-associated bloodstream infections in Australian ICUs: evaluating modifiable and non-modifiable risks in Victorian healthcare facilities.

Central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) in intensive care units (ICUs) result in poor clinical outcomes and increased costs. Although frequently regarded as preventable, infection risk may be influenced by non-modifiable factors. The objectives of this study were to evaluate organisational factors associated with CLABSI in Victorian ICUs to determine the nature and relative contribution of modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors. Data captured by the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society regarding ICU-admitted patients and resources were linked to CLABSI surveillance data collated by the Victorian Healthcare Associated Infection Surveillance System between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2013. Accepted CLABSI surveillance methods were applied and hospital/patient characteristics were classified as 'modifiable' and 'non-modifiable', enabling longitudinal Poisson regression modelling of CLABSI risk. In total, 26 ICUs were studied. Annual CLABSI rates were 1·72, 1·37, 1·00 and 0·93/1000 CVC days for 2010-2013. Of non-modifiable factors, the number of non-invasively ventilated patients standardised to total ICU bed days was found to be independently associated with infection (RR 1·07; 95% CI 1·01-1·13; P = 0·030). Modelling of modifiable risk factors demonstrated the existence of a policy for mandatory ultrasound guidance for central venous catheter (CVC) localisation (RR 0·51; 95% CI 0·37-0·70; P < 0·001) and increased number of sessional specialist full-time equivalents (RR 0·52; 95% CI 0·29-0·93; P = 0·027) to be independently associated with protection against infection. Modifiable factors associated with reduced CLABSI risk include ultrasound guidance for CVC localisation and increased availability of sessional medical specialists.

Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Rapid Response Systems and Medical Emergency Teams.

Rapid Response Teams (RRTs) have been introduced into hospitals worldwide in an effort to improve the outcomes of deteriorating hospitalised patients. Recently, there has been increased awareness of the need to develop systems other than RRTs for deteriorating patients. In May 2016, the 12th International Conference on Rapid Response Systems and Medical Emergency Teams was held in Melbourne. This represented a collaboration between the newly constituted International Society for Rapid Response Systems (iSRRS) and the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society. The conference program included broad ranging presentations related to general clinical deterioration in the acute care setting, as well as deterioration in the emergency department, during pregnancy, in the paediatric setting, and deterioration in mental health status. This article briefly summarises the key features of the conference, links to presentations, and the 18 abstracts of the accepted free papers.

Assessing contemporary intensive care unit outcome: development and validation of the Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death admission model.

The Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death (ANZROD) model currently used for benchmarking intensive care units (ICUs) in Australia and New Zealand utilises physiological data collected up to 24 hours after ICU admission to estimate the risk of hospital mortality. This study aimed to develop the Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death admission (ANZROD0) model to predict hospital mortality using data available at presentation to ICU and compare its performance with the ANZROD in Australian and New Zealand hospitals. Data pertaining to all ICU admissions between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2015 were extracted from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database. Hospital mortality was modelled using logistic regression with development (two-thirds) and validation (one-third) datasets. All predictor variables available at ICU admission were considered for inclusion in the ANZROD0 model. Model performance was assessed using Brier score, standardised mortality ratio and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The relationship between ANZROD0 and ANZROD predicted risk of death was assessed using linear regression. After standard exclusions, 1,097,416 patients were available for model development and validation. Observed mortality was 9.5%. Model performance measures (Brier score, standardised mortality ratio and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) for the ANZROD0 and ANZROD in the validation dataset were 0.069, 1.0 and 0.853; 0.057, 1.0 and 0.909, respectively. There was a strong positive correlation between the mortality predictions with an overall R2 of 0.73. We found that the ANZROD0 model had acceptable calibration and discrimination. Predictions from the models had high correlations in all major diagnostic groups, with the exception of cardiac surgery and possibly trauma and sepsis.

The Alfred Hospital experience of resumption of cardiac activity after withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy.

With the advent of donation after circulatory death programs in Australia and New Zealand, greater knowledge is needed about physiologic variation in haemodynamic activity following withdrawal of cardiorespiratory support. The ANZICS Statement on Death and Organ Donation allows provision for variation in the observation times between two and five minutes after cessation of the circulation prior to declaration of death. We report our experience of two cases, the first where electrical activity and pulse returned after a 102 second pause and the second where electrical activity returned after a three minute pause; both longer than previously reported cases.

Necrotising soft tissue infections: the effect of hyperbaric oxygen on mortality.

In a single-centre, retrospective, case-controlled study of patients attending the Alfred Hospital in Prahran, Victoria, we assessed the effect of hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT) in reducing mortality or morbidity in patients with necrotising fasciitis (NF) over a 13-year period from 2002 to 2014. A total of three hundred and forty-one patients with NF were included in the study, of whom 275 received HBOT and 66 did not. The most commonly involved sites were the perineum (33.7%), lower limb (29.9%) and trunk (18.2%). The commonest predisposing factor was diabetes mellitus (34.8%). Polymicrobial NF (type 1 NF) occurred in 50.7% and Group A streptococcal fasciitis (type 2 NF) occurred in 25.8% of patients. Mortality was 14.4% overall, 12% in those treated with, and 24.3% in those not treated with, HBOT. ICU support was required in 248 (72.7%) patients. Independent factors impacting on mortality included HBOT (odds ratio [OR] 0.42 [0.22 to 0.83], P=0.01), increased age (OR 1.06 [1.03 to 1.08], P=0.001) and immunosuppression (OR 2.6 [1.23 to 5.51], P=0.01). Mortality was linked to illness severity at presentation, however when adjusted for severity score and need for intensive care management, HBOT was associated with significant reduction in mortality.

Findings of the first ANZICS conference on the role of intensive care in Rapid Response Teams.

Rapid Response Teams (RRTs) are specialised teams introduced into hospitals to improve the outcomes of deteriorating ward patients. Although Rapid Response Systems (RRSs) were developed by the intensive care unit (ICU) community, there is variability in their delivery, and consultant involvement, supervision and leadership appears to be relatively infrequent. In July 2014, the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) convened the first conference on the role of intensive care medicine in RRTs in Australia and New Zealand. The conference explored RRSs in the broader role of patient safety, resourcing and staffing of RRTs, effect on ICU workload, different RRT models, the outcomes of RRT patients and original research projects in the area of RRSs. Issues around education and training of both ICU registrars and nurses were examined, and the role of team training explored. Measures to assess the effectiveness of the RRS and RRT at the level of health system and hospital, team performance and team effectiveness were discussed, and the need to develop a bi-national ANZICS RRT patient database was presented. Strategies to prevent patient deterioration in the 'pre-RRT' period were discussed, including education of ward nurses and doctors, as well as an overarching governance structure. The role of the ICU in deteriorating ward patients was debated and an integrated model of acute care presented. This article summarises the findings of the conference and presents recommendations on the role of intensive care medicine in RRTs in Australia and New Zealand.

The association between early arterial oxygenation in the ICU and mortality following cardiac surgery.

Many studies have been conducted to investigate the relationship between hyperoxia and mortality in cohorts of intensive care unit (ICU) patients with varied and often contradictory results. The impact of early hyperoxia post ischaemia remains uncertain in various ICU cohorts. We aimed to investigate the association between arterial oxygenation (PaO2) in the first 24 hours in ICU and mortality in patients following cardiac surgery, using a retrospective cohort study of data from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Participants were adults admitted to the ICU following cardiac surgery in Australia and New Zealand between 2003 and 2012. Patients were divided according to worst PaO2 level or alveolar-arterial O2 gradient in the 24 hours from admission. We defined 'hyperoxia' as PaO2 ≥300 mmHg, 'hypoxia/poor O2 transfer' as either PaO2 <60 mmHg or ratio of PaO2 to fraction of inspired oxygen <300 and 'normoxia' as between hypoxia and hyperoxia. The primary outcome was mortality at hospital discharge. Secondary outcomes were ICU mortality and ICU and hospital length-of-stay. Of the 83,060 patients, 12,188 (14.7%) had hyperoxia, 54,420 (65.5%) had hypoxia/poor O2 transfer and 16,452 (19.8%) had normoxia. There was no association between hyperoxia and in-hospital or ICU mortality compared to normoxia. There was a small increased hospital and ICU length-of-stay for hyperoxic compared to normoxic patients. We concluded that there was no association between mortality and hyperoxia in the first 24 hours in ICU after cardiac surgery.

Factors associated with increased risk of readmission to intensive care in Australia.

PURPOSE: To determine the epidemiology, in-hospital mortality, trends, patient characteristics and predictors of intensive care unit (ICU) readmission in Australia. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal study of data for 38 Australian ICUs extracted from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database (ANZICS-ADP) for the years 2000-2007. Demographic, diagnostic, physiological and outcome data were analysed. A multivariate model was constructed to identify risk factors for ICU readmission. Outcomes examined included observed and risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 247,103 patients were discharged alive from their first ICU admission; 13,598 (5.5%) were readmitted at least once. Variables associated with an odds ratio greater than 1.05 for readmission (p < 0.001) were an initial ICU admission source other than elective surgery, any chronic health variable on severity scoring, tertiary hospital ICU and discharge between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. Five initial diagnoses were associated with an odds ratio (OR) greater than 2 for readmission (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality in readmitted patients was 20.7% compared with 4.4% in those not readmitted. Readmission rates have not changed over the study period. After adjustment for illness severity and readmission propensity, ICU readmission remained significantly associated with in-hospital mortality (OR 5.4, 95%, confidence interval (CI) 5.1-5.7). CONCLUSIONS: Many risk factors for increased ICU readmission were identified in this study including ICU discharge between 6 p.m. and 6 a.m. This was the only modifiable variable studied. Prospective studies are required to identify other factors and to determine whether interventions may reduce ICU readmission and its high associated in-hospital mortality.

Empirical aspects of linking intensive care registry data to hospital discharge data without the use of direct patient identifiers.

In the field of intensive care, clinical data registries are commonly used to support clinical audit and develop evidence-based practice. However, they are often restricted to the intensive care unit episode only, limiting their ability to follow long-term patient outcomes and identify patient readmissions. Data linkage can be used to supplement existing data, but a lack of unique patient identifiers may compromise the accuracy of the linkage process. The aim of this study was to assess the quality of linking the Australia/New Zealand critical care registry to a state financial claims database using a method without direct patient identifiers and to identify possible sources of bias from this method. We used a linkage method relying on indirect patient identifiers and compared the accuracy of this method to one that also included the patient medical record number and date of birth. The overall linkage rate using the method with indirect identifiers was 92.3% compared to 94.5% using the method with direct identifiers. Factors most strongly associated with not being a correct link in the first method included patients at one study hospital, admissions in 2002 and 2003 and having a hospital length of stay of 20 days or more. Linking the Australia/New Zealand critical care without direct patient identifiers is a valid linkage method that will enable the measurement of long-term patient survival and readmissions. While some sources of bias have been identified, this method provides sufficient quality linkage that will support broad analyses designed to signal future in-depth research.

A simple tool for mortality prediction in burns patients: APACHE III score and FTSA.

Prediction of outcome for patients with major thermal injury is important to inform clinical decision making, alleviate individual suffering and improve hospital resource allocation. Age and burn size are widely accepted as the two largest contributors of mortality amongst burns patients. The APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) III-j score, which incorporates patient age, is also useful for mortality prediction, of intensive care populations. Validation for the burns specific cohort is unclear. A retrospective cohort study was performed on patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) via the Victorian Adult Burns Service (VABS), to compare observed mortality with burns specific markers of illness severity and APACHE III-j score. Our primary aim was to develop a mortality prediction tool for the burns population. Between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2008, 228 patients were admitted to the ICU at The Alfred with acute burns. The mean age was 45.6 years and 81% (n=184) were male. Patients had severe injuries: the average percent TBSA (total body surface area) was 28% (IQR 10-40) and percent FTSA (full thickness surface area) was 18% (IQR 10-25). 86% (n=197) had airway involvement. Overall mortality in the 7-year period was 12% (n=27). Non-survivors were older, had larger and deeper burns, a higher incidence of deliberate self-harm, higher APACHE III-j scores and spent less time in hospital (but similar time in ICU), compared with survivors. Independent risk factors for death were percent FTSA (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05, p=0.01) and APACHE III-j score (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.07, p<0.001). Mortality prediction based on both of these variables in combination was more specific than either individual variable alone (AUROC 0.85, 95% CI 0.79-0.92). Likelihood of death for patients with severe thermal injury can be predicted with accuracy from APACHE III-j score and percent FTSA. Prospective validation of our model on different burn populations is necessary.

Does anaesthetic management affect early outcomes after lung transplant? An exploratory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is a predominant cause of early morbidity and mortality after lung transplantation. Although substantial work has been done to understand risk factors for PGD in terms of donor, recipient, and surgical factors, little is understood regarding the potential role of anaesthetic management variables in its development. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of 107 consecutive lung transplants to determine if anaesthesia factors were associated with early graft function quantified by Pa(O(2))/Fi(O(2)). Multivariate regression techniques were used to explore the association between anaesthetic management variables and Pa(O(2))/Fi(O(2)) ratio 12 h after operation. The relationship between these variables and both time to tracheal extubation and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay was further examined using the Cox proportional hazards. RESULTS: On multivariate analysis, increasing volume of intraoperative colloid, comprising predominantly Gelofusine (succinylated gelatin), was independently associated with a lower Pa(O(2))/Fi(O(2)) 12 h post-transplantation [beta coefficient -42 mm Hg, 95% confidence interval (CI) -7 to -77 mm Hg, P=0.02] and reduced rate of extubation [hazard ratio (HR) 0.65, 95% CI 0.49-0.84, P=0.001]. There was a trend for intraoperative colloid to be associated with a reduced rate of ICU discharge (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.31-1.02, P=0.07). CONCLUSIONS: We observed an inverse relationship between volume of intraoperative colloid and early lung allograft function. The association persists, despite detailed sensitivity analyses and adjustment for potential confounding variables. Further studies are required to confirm these findings and explore potential mechanisms through which these associations may act.

After-hours discharge from intensive care increases the risk of readmission and death.

Despite reports showing night discharge from an intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with increased mortality, it is unknown if this has resulted in changes in practice in recent years. Our aim was to determine prevalence, trends and effect on patient outcome of discharge timing from ICU throughout Australia and New Zealand. Two datasets from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database (ANZICS APD) were examined: (1) All submissions to the APD from 1.1.2003 to 31.12.2004 to determine contemporary practices. (2) Forty hospitals which had submitted continuous data between 1.1.2000 and 31.12.2004 to determine trends in practice over time. Outcomes investigated were hospital mortality and ICU readmission rate. Between 1.1.2003 and 31.12.2004, the ANZICS APD reported 76,690 patients discharged alive from ICU; 13,968 (18.2%) were discharged after-hours (between 1800 and 0559 hours). After-hours discharges had a higher readmission rate (6.3% vs. 5.1%; P < or = 0.0001) and higher mortality (8.0% vs. 5.3%; P = < 0.0001). Peak readmission (8.6%) and mortality rates (9.7%) were seen in patients discharged between 0300 and 0400 hours. After-hours discharge was a predictor of mortality (odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.32-1.52; P= < 0.0001) in multivariate analysis. Between 2000 and 2004, after-hours discharges increased (P = 0.0015) with seasonal peaks during winter The risk of death increased as the proportion of patients discharged after-hours rose. After-hours discharge from ICU is associated with increased risk of death and readmission to ICU. It has become more frequent. The risk of death increases as more after-hours discharges occur.

High central venous pressure is associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation and increased mortality after lung transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Poor oxygenation might occur in transplanted lungs as a result of reperfusion injury and lack of lymphatic drainage. Low central venous and pulmonary capillary wedge pressures are advocated to reduce pulmonary edema and maximize oxygenation but might adversely affect cardiac index, circulation, and renal function. METHODS: Histories, intensive care unit charts, and donor data on 118 lung transplantations performed between 1999 and 2002 were retrospectively assessed. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed on donor, recipient, operative, and intensive care unit parameters to determine the relationship of filling pressure (central venous and pulmonary capillary wedge pressures) to prolonged mechanical ventilation and outcome. The mean central venous pressure was used to divide patients into high and low central venous pressure groups, which were then compared to determine differences in outcome and complication rates. RESULTS: A high central venous pressure was found to be associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation (odds ratio, 1.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-2.20; P = .008). After removing the effect of poor myocardial function by excluding patients with low cardiac index (< 2.2 L x min -1 x m(-2) ) and high inotrope requirement (> 10 microg/min), central venous pressure remained associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation (odds ratio, 2.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-4.07; P = .004). Duration of ventilation (P < .001), intensive care unit mortality (P = .02), hospital mortality (P = .09), and 2-month mortality (P = .02) were higher in patients with central venous pressures of greater than 7 mm Hg. There was no evidence of complications caused by hypovolemia in the low (< or = 7 mm Hg) central venous pressure group, who had lower inotrope requirements (P = .02) and lower creatinine levels (P = .013). Conclusions A high central venous pressure was associated with adverse outcomes after lung transplantation.

Outcomes, cost and long term survival of patients referred to a regional weaning centre.

BACKGROUND: Regional weaning centres provide cost effective care for patients who have undergone prolonged mechanical ventilation. There are few published European data on outcomes in these patients. METHODS: Patients admitted for weaning to the Lane Fox Respiratory Unit (LFU) between January 1997 and December 2000 were identified. The proportion weaned from mechanical ventilation, in-hospital mortality, and subsequent survival after discharge were examined. RESULTS: A total of 153 patients had been ventilated for a median of 26 days before transfer. The daily cost per patient stay was 1350. Fifty eight patients (38%) were fully weaned, 42 (27%) died, and 53 (35%) required ventilatory support at discharge from hospital of whom 36 (24%) required only nocturnal ventilation. Univariate analysis showed increasing age (OR 1.06, p<0.001), length of ICU stay (OR 1.02, p = 0.001), APACHE II predicted risk of death score (OR 1.02, p = 0.05), and a surgical cause for admission (OR 4.04) were associated with mortality. Neuromuscular/chest wall conditions were associated with low mortality (OR 0.36) but low likelihood of weaning from ventilation (OR 0.28). Female sex (OR 2.13, p = 0.03) and COPD (OR 2.81) were associated with successful weaning. Overall survival at 3 years from admission was 47%. Long term survival was lowest in patients with COPD. CONCLUSIONS: Most patients survived to leave hospital, the majority having been liberated from ventilatory support. Survivors were younger and spent less time ventilated in the referring ICU. The underlying diagnosis determined success of weaning, hospital survival, and long term outcome.