Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture and Sequestration Coupled to Low-Carbon Thermal Energy in the United States.

Negative emissions technologies will play an important role in preventing 2 °C warming by 2100. The next decade is critical for technological innovation and deployment to meet mid-century carbon removal goals of 10-20 GtCO2/yr. Direct air capture (DAC) is positioned to play a critical role in carbon removal, yet remains under paced in deployment efforts, mainly because of high costs. This study outlines a roadmap for DAC cost reductions through the exploitation of low-temperature heat, recent U.S. policy drivers, and logical, regional end-use opportunities in the United States. Specifically, two scenarios are identified that allow for the production of compressed high-purity CO2 for costs ≤$300/tCO2, net delivered with an opportunity to scale to 19 MtCO2/yr. These scenarios use thermal energy from geothermal and nuclear power plants to produce steam and transport the purified CO2 via trucks to the nearest opportunity for direct use or subsurface permanent storage. Although some utilization pathways result in the re-emission of CO2 and cannot be considered true carbon removal, they would provide economic incentive to deploying DAC plants at scale by mid-century. In addition, the federal tax credit 45Q was applied for qualifying facilities (i.e., producing ≥100 ktCO2/yr).

Cost Analysis of Carbon Capture and Sequestration of Process Emissions from the U.S. Industrial Sector.

The industrial sector represents roughly 22% of U.S. emissions. Unlike emissions from fossil-fueled power plants, the carbon footprint of the industrial sector represents a complex mixture of stationary combustion and process emissions produced as a reaction byproduct of cement, iron and steel, glass, and oil production. This study quantifies the potential opportunities for low-cost carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenarios with process emissions from the U.S. industrial sector by analyzing the variabilities in point-source capture and geographic proximity to relevant sinks, specifically enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and geologic sequestration opportunities. Using a technology-agnostic cost model developed from mature CO2 capture technologies, costs of CCS are calculated for each of the 656 facilities considered, with application of the U.S. federal tax credit 45Q to qualifying facilities. Capture of these targeted industrial process emission streams may lead to the avoidance of roughly 195 MtCO2/yr (188 MtCO2/yr qualifying for 45Q). A total of 123 facilities have the potential to avoid roughly 68.5 MtCO2/yr at costs below $40/tCO2 delivered. This could be competitive for using CO2 for EOR depending on the price of oil. At regional CO2 collection hubs, emissions of 40 MtCO2/yr can be avoided within 100 miles of the existing Louisiana-Mississippi and Texas-New Mexico pipelines.

Cost Analysis of Carbon Capture and Sequestration from U.S. Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants.

Despite increasing efforts to decarbonize the power sector, the utilization of natural gas-fired power plants is anticipated to continue. This study models existing solvent-based carbon capture technologies on natural gas-fired power plants, using site-specific emissions and regionally defined cost parameters to calculate the cost of CO2 avoided for two scenarios: delivery to and injection within reliable sequestration sites, and delivery and injection for the purpose of CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Despite the application of credits from the existing federal tax code 45Q, a minimum incentive gap of roughly $38/tCO2 remains for the geologic sequestration of CO2 and $56/tCO2 for CO2-EOR (before consideration of revenue generated from delivered CO2 contracts). At full escalation of 45Q, delivered CO2 costs from this sector for geologic sequestration could reach as low as $22/tCO2. However, given the capital investment required in the near-term, it would be beneficial if the credit provided the greatest economic benefit early on and decreasing over time as deployment continues to ramp up. Additionally, due to the high qualifying limit of 45Q for the power sector, e.g., 500 ktCO2/yr, the tax credit incentivizes the capture of roughly 397 MtCO2/yr at a 90% capture efficiency or 75% of the emissions in this sector, with missed opportunities equating to roughly 118 MtCO2. Advancing the scale of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) will require both technological advances in the capture technology, cost reductions through the leveraging of existing infrastructure, and increased policy incentives in terms of cost along with the reduction of qualifying limits.