Temporal changes in SARS-CoV-2 clearance kinetics and the optimal design of antiviral pharmacodynamic studies: an individual patient data meta-analysis of a randomised, controlled, adaptive platform study (PLATCOV).

BACKGROUND: Effective antiviral drugs prevent hospitalisation and death from COVID-19. Antiviral efficacy can be efficiently assessed in vivo by measuring rates of SARS-CoV-2 clearance estimated from serial viral genome densities quantitated in nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab eluates. We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis of unblinded arms in the PLATCOV platform trial to characterise changes in viral clearance kinetics and infer optimal design and interpretation of antiviral pharmacometric evaluations. METHODS: Serial viral density data were analysed from symptomatic, previously healthy, adult patients (within 4 days of symptom onset) enrolled in a large multicentre, randomised, adaptive, pharmacodynamic, platform trial (PLATCOV) comparing antiviral interventions for SARS-CoV-2. Viral clearance rates over 1 week were estimated under a hierarchical Bayesian linear model with B-splines used to characterise temporal changes in enrolment viral densities and clearance rates. Bootstrap re-sampling was used to assess the optimal duration of follow-up for pharmacometric assessment, where optimal was defined as maximising the expected Z score when comparing effective antivirals with no treatment. PLATCOV is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05041907. FINDINGS: Between Sept 29, 2021, and Oct 20, 2023, 1262 patients were randomly assigned in the PLATCOV trial. Unblinded data were available from 800 patients (who provided 16 818 oropharyngeal viral quantitative PCR [qPCR] measurements), of whom 504 (63%) were female. 783 (98%) patients had received at least one vaccine dose and 703 (88%) were fully vaccinated. SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance was biphasic (bi-exponential). The first phase (α) was accelerated by effective interventions. For all the effective interventions studied, maximum discriminative power (maximum expected Z score) was obtained when evaluating serial data from the first 5 days after enrolment. Over the 2-year period studied, median viral clearance half-lives estimated over 7 days shortened from 16·6 h (IQR 15·3 to 18·2) in September, 2021, to 9·2 h (8·0 to 10·6) in October, 2023, in patients receiving no antiviral drugs, equivalent to a relative reduction of 44% (95% credible interval [CrI] 19 to 64). A parallel reduction in viral clearance half-lives over time was observed in patients receiving antiviral drugs. For example, in the 158 patients assigned to ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir (3380 qPCR measurements), the median viral clearance half-life reduced from 6·4 h (IQR 5·7 to 7·3) in June, 2022, to 4·8 h (4·2 to 5·5) in October, 2023, a relative reduction of 26% (95% CrI -4 to 42). INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance kinetics in symptomatic, vaccinated individuals accelerated substantially over 2 years of the pandemic, necessitating a change to how new SARS-CoV-2 antivirals are compared (ie, shortening the period of pharmacodynamic assessment). As of writing (October, 2023), antiviral efficacy in COVID-19 can be efficiently assessed in vivo using serial qPCRs from duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily for 5 days after drug administration. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Seroprevalence of dengue, Japanese encephalitis and Zika among long-term expatriates in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Travel to Southeast Asia increases the likelihood of acquiring mosquito-borne Flavivirus infections such as dengue (DENV), Japanese encephalitis (JEV) and Zika viruses (ZIKV). Expatriates are long-term travellers who have a higher risk of mosquito-borne illness at their destination country. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the seroprevalence of DENV, JEV and ZIKV infections and the determinants contributing to seropositivity among expatriates living in Thailand. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed from December 2017 to February 2020. Expatriates from non-Flavivirus endemic countries were recruited. 5 mL of blood was collected for DENV 1-4, JEV and ZIKV antibody testing by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50). Individuals with vaccination histories or diagnoses for dengue, Japanese encephalitis, yellow fever and tick-borne encephalitis were excluded. RESULTS: Among 254 participants, most participants (83.1%) were male, the mean age was 65 years and the median duration of stay in Thailand was 6 years. Seroprevalence rate of any Flavivirus, non-specific DENV, DENV1-4, JEV and ZIKV were 34.3, 30.7, 20.5, 18.1, 18.9, 10.6, 4.7 and 2.8%, respectively. The presence of neutralizing antibodies against DENV1-4 positively correlates with the duration of stay in Thailand. DENV seropositivity was associated with living in urban areas (aOR 2.75, 95% CI 1.36-5.57). Expatriates were unlikely to have detectable anti-JEV antibodies regardless of time spent in a JEV-endemic area. No risk factors were identified that were significantly associated with JEV or ZIKV seropositivity. Only 48.4% received pre-travel counselling services, while only 18.9% visited a travel medicine specialist. CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion (34.3%) of long-term expatriates living in Thailand were seropositive for flavivirus, mainly from dengue (30.7%). To minimize risk, travel medicine practitioners should provide adequate pre-travel health risk information on mosquito-borne flavivirus infection and offer advice on mosquito bite prevention strategies. Dengue vaccine might be considered in high-risk travellers such as long-term expatriate.

Barriers and enablers to blood culture sampling in Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam: a Theoretical Domains Framework-based survey.

OBJECTIVE: Blood culture (BC) sampling is recommended for all suspected sepsis patients prior to antibiotic administration. We examine barriers and enablers to BC sampling in three Southeast Asian countries. DESIGN: A Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF)-based survey, comprising a case scenario of a patient presenting with community-acquired sepsis and all 14 TDF domains of barriers/enablers to BC sampling. SETTING: Hospitals in Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam, December 2021 to 30 April 2022. PARTICIPANTS: 1070 medical doctors and 238 final-year medical students were participated in this study. Half of the respondents were women (n=680, 52%) and most worked in governmental hospitals (n=980, 75.4%). OUTCOME MEASURES: Barriers and enablers to BC sampling. RESULTS: The proportion of respondents who answered that they would definitely take BC in the case scenario was highest at 89.8% (273/304) in Thailand, followed by 50.5% (252/499) in Viet Nam and 31.3% (157/501) in Indonesia (p<0.001). Barriers/enablers in nine TDF domains were considered key in influencing BC sampling, including 'priority of BC (TDF-goals)', 'perception about their role to order or initiate an order for BC (TDF-social professional role and identity)', 'perception that BC is helpful (TDF-beliefs about consequences)', 'intention to follow guidelines (TDF-intention)', 'awareness of guidelines (TDF-knowledge)', 'norms of BC sampling (TDF-social influence)', 'consequences that discourage BC sampling (TDF-reinforcement)', 'perceived cost-effectiveness of BC (TDF-environmental context and resources)' and 'regulation on cost reimbursement (TDF-behavioural regulation)'. There was substantial heterogeneity between the countries. In most domains, the lower (higher) proportion of Thai respondents experienced the barriers (enablers) compared with that of Indonesian and Vietnamese respondents. A range of suggested intervention types and policy options was identified. CONCLUSIONS: Barriers and enablers to BC sampling are varied and heterogenous. Cost-related barriers are more common in more resource-limited countries, while many barriers are not directly related to cost. Context-specific multifaceted interventions at both hospital and policy levels are required to improve diagnostic stewardship practices.

Clinical antiviral efficacy of favipiravir in early COVID-19 (PLATCOV): an open-label, randomised, controlled, adaptive platform trial.

In early symptomatic COVID-19 treatment, high dose oral favipiravir did not accelerate viral clearance. BACKGROUND: Favipiravir, an anti-influenza drug, has in vitro antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2. Clinical trial evidence to date is inconclusive. Favipiravir has been recommended for the treatment of COVID-19 in some countries. METHODS: In a multicentre open-label, randomised, controlled, adaptive platform trial, low-risk adult patients with early symptomatic COVID-19 were randomised to one of ten treatment arms including high dose oral favipiravir (3.6g on day 0 followed by 1.6g daily to complete 7 days treatment) or no study drug. The primary outcome was the rate of viral clearance (derived under a linear mixed-effects model from the daily log10 viral densities in standardised duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily over 8 days [18 swabs per patient]), assessed in a modified intention-to-treat population (mITT). The safety population included all patients who received at least one dose of the allocated intervention. This ongoing adaptive platform trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05041907) on 13/09/2021. RESULTS: In the final analysis, the mITT population contained data from 114 patients randomised to favipiravir and 126 patients randomised concurrently to no study drug. Under the linear mixed-effects model fitted to all oropharyngeal viral density estimates in the first 8 days from randomisation (4,318 swabs), there was no difference in the rate of viral clearance between patients given favipiravir and patients receiving no study drug; a -1% (95% credible interval: -14 to 14%) difference. High dose favipiravir was well-tolerated. INTERPRETATION: Favipiravir does not accelerate viral clearance in early symptomatic COVID-19. The viral clearance rate estimated from quantitative measurements of oropharyngeal eluate viral densities assesses the antiviral efficacy of drugs in vivo with comparatively few studied patients.