Increasing numbers of killer whale individuals use fisheries as feeding opportunities within subantarctic populations.

Fisheries can generate feeding opportunities for large marine predators in the form of discards or accessible catch. How the use of this anthropogenic food may spread as a new behaviour, across individuals within populations over time, is poorly understood. This study used a 16-year (2003-2018) monitoring of two killer whale Orcinus orca subantarctic populations (regular and Type-D at Crozet), and Bayesian multistate capture-mark-recapture models, to assess temporal changes in the number of individuals feeding on fish caught on hooks ('depredation' behaviour) of a fishery started in 1996. For both populations, the number of depredating individuals increased during the study period (34 to 94 for regular; 17 to 43 for Type-D). Increasing abundance is unlikely to account for this and, rather, the results suggest depredation was acquired by increasing numbers of existing individuals. For regular killer whales, a plateau reached from 2014 suggests that it took 18 years for the behaviour to spread across the whole population. A more recent plateau was apparent for Type-Ds but additional years are needed to confirm this. These findings show how changes in prey availability caused by human activities lead to rapid, yet progressive, innovations in killer whales, likely altering the ecological role of this top-predator.

Distinguishing within- from between-individual effects: How to use the within-individual centring method for quadratic patterns.

Any average pattern observed at the population level (cross-sectional analysis) may confound two different types of processes: some processes that occur among individuals and others that occur within individuals. Separating within- from among-individual processes is critical for our understanding of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. The within-individual centring method allows distinguishing within- from among-individual processes and this method has been widely used in ecology to investigate both linear and quadratic patterns. Here we show that two alternative equations could be used for the investigation of quadratic within-individual patterns. We explain the different assumptions and constraints of both equations. Reviewing the literature, we found that mainly one of these two equations has been used in studies investigating quadratic patterns. Yet this equation might not be the most appropriate in all circumstances leading to bias and imprecision. We show that these two alternative equations make different assumptions about the shape of the within-individual pattern. One equation assumes that the within-individual effect is related to an absolute process whereas the other assumes the effect arises from an individual relative process. The choice of using one equation instead of the other should depend upon the biological process investigated. Using simulations, we showed that a mismatch between the assumptions made by the equation used to analyse the data and the biological process investigated might led to flawed inference affecting output of model selection and accuracy of estimates. We stress that the equation used should be chosen carefully. We provide step by step guidelines for choosing an equation when studying quadratic pattern with the within-individual centring approach. We encourage the use of the within-individual centring method, promoting its relevant application for nonlinear relationships.

Demographic consequences of changing body size in a terrestrial salamander.

Changes in climate can alter individual body size, and the resulting shifts in reproduction and survival are expected to impact population dynamics and viability. However, appropriate methods to account for size-dependent demographic changes are needed, especially in understudied yet threatened groups such as amphibians. We investigated individual- and population-level demographic effects of changes in body size for a terrestrial salamander using capture-mark-recapture data. For our analysis, we implemented an integral projection model parameterized with capture-recapture likelihood estimates from a Bayesian framework. Our study combines survival and growth data from a single dataset to quantify the influence of size on survival while including different sources of uncertainty around these parameters, demonstrating how selective forces can be studied in populations with limited data and incomplete recaptures. We found a strong dependency of the population growth rate on changes in individual size, mediated by potential changes in selection on mean body size and on maximum body size. Our approach of simultaneous parameter estimation can be extended across taxa to identify eco-evolutionary mechanisms acting on size-specific vital rates, and thus shaping population dynamics and viability.

Can we use a functional trait to construct a generalized model for ungulate populations?

Ecologists have long desired predictive models that allow inference on population dynamics, where detailed demographic data are unavailable. Integral projection models (IPMs) allow both demographic and phenotypic outcomes at the level of the population to be predicted from the distribution of a functional trait, like body mass. In species where body mass markedly influences demographic rates, as is the rule among mammals, then IPMs provide not only opportunity to assess the population responses to a given environment, but also improve our understanding of the complex interplay between traits and demographic outcomes. Here, we develop a body-mass-based approach to constructing generalized, predictive IPMs for species of ungulates covering a broad range of body size (25-400 kg). Despite our best efforts, we found that a reliable and general, functional, trait-based model for ungulates was unattainable even after accounting for among-species variation in both age at first reproduction and litter size. We attribute this to the diversity of reproductive tactics among similar-sized species of ungulates, and to the interplay between density-dependent and environmental factors that shape demographic parameters independent of mass at the local scale. These processes thus drive population dynamics and cannot be ignored. Environmental context generally matters in population ecology, and our study shows this may be the case for functional traits in vertebrate populations.

Influences of climatic and social environment on variable maternal allocation among offspring in Alpine marmots.

In an environment with limited resources, parents may trade-off the number of offspring produced against offspring mass. To maximize fitness under unpredictable environments, females must not only maximize mean annual reproductive success but also minimize between-year variation in reproductive success. Thus, preferred strategies of maternal allocation might be to maximize the mass of their offspring or to produce a number of offspring of variable body masses. Many social species have evolved in variable and unpredictable environments where only the social environment can be predicted. If mothers seem to alter their total reproductive allocation to offspring depending on their social environment, how the total expenditure is allocated between the different offspring is still unknown. Here, we analysed how climatic and social environments influence strategies of maternal allocation and how these strategies impact pup first-year survival in a wild population of Alpine marmots monitored between 1990 and 2016. We found that females acted as income breeders using resources immediately available for reproduction. Our results showed that the proportion of maternal mass allocated to offspring varied mainly with litter size. However, how maternal allocation is shared between pups depended on climatic and social environments. In general, mothers tended to have litters of greater average mass and small variability in favourable social environments or when resources are abundant and lighter average pup mass but high variability in unfavourable social environments or when resources are scarce. This variable allocation could correspond to dynamic bet-hedging such that mothers influence the variance of pup mass within the litter in response to poor current environmental conditions. Our analysis of first-year survival showed that females should maximize the body mass of their young whatever the conditions will be because pups of higher mass have higher survival, regardless of environmental conditions. When resources are scarce, this strategy might not be achievable for all pups so that mothers produced variable pups. In large litters, this strategy increased first-year survival. Because pup variability affects parental fitness, differential allocation between pups of the same litter could have large consequences on fitness and thus on reproductive strategies of social species.

Disentangling the spatial and temporal causes of decline in a bird population.

The difficulties in understanding the underlying reasons of a population decline lie in the typical short duration of field studies, the often too small size already reached by a declining population or the multitude of environmental factors that may influence population trend. In this difficult context, useful demographic tools such as integrated population models (IPM) may help disentangling the main reasons for a population decline. To understand why a hoopoe Upupa epops population has declined, we followed a three step model analysis. We built an IPM structured with respect to habitat quality (approximated by the expected availability of mole crickets, the main prey in our population) and estimated the contributions of habitat-specific demographic rates to population variation and decline. We quantified how much each demographic rate has decreased and investigated whether habitat quality influenced this decline. We tested how much weather conditions and research activities contributed to the decrease in the different demographic rates. The decline of the hoopoe population was mainly explained by a decrease in first-year apparent survival and a reduced number of fledglings produced, particularly in habitats of high quality. Since a majority of pairs bred in habitats of the highest quality, the decrease in the production of locally recruited yearlings in high-quality habitat was the main driver of the population decline despite a homogeneous drop of recruitment across habitats. Overall, the explanatory variables we tested only accounted for 19% of the decrease in the population growth rate. Among these variables, the effects of spring temperature (49% of the explained variance) contributed more to population decline than spring precipitation (36%) and research activities (maternal capture delay, 15%). This study shows the power of IPMs for identifying the vital rates involved in population declines and thus paves the way for targeted conservation and management actions.

Integrated population models: powerful methods to embed individual processes in population dynamics models.

Population dynamics models have long assumed that populations are composed of a restricted number of groups, where individuals in each group have identical demographic rates and where all groups are similarly affected by density-dependent and -independent effects. However, individuals usually vary tremendously in performance and in their sensitivity to environmental conditions or resource limitation, such that individual contributions to population growth will be highly variable. Recent efforts to integrate individual processes in population models open up new opportunities for the study of eco-evolutionary processes, such as the density-dependent influence of environmental conditions on the evolution of morphological, behavioral, and life-history traits. We review recent advances that demonstrate how including individual mechanisms in models of population dynamics contributes to a better understanding of the drivers of population dynamics within the framework of integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the integration in a single inferential framework of different data types as well as variable population structure including sex, social group, or territory, all of which can be formulated to include individual-level processes. Through a series of examples, we first show how IPMs can be beneficial for getting more accurate estimates of demographic traits than classic matrix population models by including basic population structure and their influence on population dynamics. Second, the integration of individual- and population-level data allows estimating density-dependent effects along with their inherent uncertainty by directly using the population structure and size to feedback on demography. Third, we show how IPMs can be used to study the influence of the dynamics of continuous individual traits and individual quality on population dynamics. We conclude by discussing the benefits and limitations of IPMs for integrating data at different spatial, temporal, and organismal levels to build more mechanistic models of population dynamics.

Hoopoe males experience intra-seasonal while females experience inter-seasonal reproductive costs.

Reproductive and survival costs due to reproductive investment are a central element for the evolution of life histories. Both intra- (reduction of reproductive performance of second brood due to investment in first brood) and inter-seasonal costs (reduction of reproductive performance or annual survival due to reproductive investment in preceding year) may appear in multiple breeding species. Knowledge about how trade-offs within and between seasons shape individual trajectories and influence fitness are crucial in life-history evolution, yet intra- and inter-seasonal reproductive costs are rarely analysed simultaneously. We investigated sex-specific differences in intra- and inter-seasonal reproductive and survival costs in response to previous reproductive effort in a monogamous, double-brooding bird, the hoopoe (Upupa epops), accounting for heterogeneity in individual and annual quality. Intra-seasonal reproductive costs were detected in males and inter-seasonal reproductive and survival costs were detected in females. In males, the probability of being a successful double breeder was negatively correlated with the number of hatchlings produced in the first brood. In females, the number of fledglings raised in the first brood was negatively correlated with the reproductive effort in the preceding season. Female annual survival was also negatively influenced by the number of broods produced in the previous reproductive season. Most of these reproductive costs were detected only in years with low productivity, suggesting that costs become evident when environmental conditions are harsh. Our results illustrate how different investment in current vs. future reproduction and survival shape different life-history strategies in males and females of a monogamous bird species.

Sex-Specific Heterogeneity in Fixed Morphological Traits Influences Individual Fitness in a Monogamous Bird Population.

Theoretical work has emphasized the important role of individual traits on population dynamics, but empirical models are often based on average or stage-dependent demographic rates. In this study on a monogamous bird, the Eurasian hoopoe (Upupa epops), we show how the interactions between male and female fixed and dynamic heterogeneity influence demographic rates and population dynamics. We built an integral projection model including individual sex, age, condition (reflecting dynamic heterogeneity), and fixed morphology (reflecting fixed heterogeneity). Fixed morphology was derived from a principal component analysis of six morphological traits. Our results revealed that reproductive success and survival were linked to fixed heterogeneity, whereas dynamic heterogeneity influenced mainly the timing of reproduction. Fixed heterogeneity had major consequences for the population growth rate, but interestingly, its effect on population dynamics differed between the sexes. Female fixed morphology was directly linked to annual reproductive success, whereas male fixed morphology also influenced annual survival, being twice higher in large than in small males. Even in a monogamous bird with shared parental care, large males can reach 10% higher fitness than females. Including the dynamics of male and female individual traits in population models refines our understanding of the individual mechanisms that influence demographic rates and population dynamics and can help in identifying differences in sex-specific strategies.

Modeling Adaptive and Nonadaptive Responses of Populations to Environmental Change.

Understanding how the natural world will be impacted by environmental change over the coming decades is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity. Addressing this challenge is difficult because environmental change can generate both population-level plastic and evolutionary responses, with plastic responses being either adaptive or nonadaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends on whether plastic responses are adaptive or nonadaptive. Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full machinery of the evolutionarily explicit models we develop will be needed to predict responses to environmental change or whether simpler nonevolutionary models that are now widely constructed may be sufficient.

Evidence of reduced individual heterogeneity in adult survival of long-lived species.

The canalization hypothesis postulates that the rate at which trait variation generates variation in the average individual fitness in a population determines how buffered traits are against environmental and genetic factors. The ranking of a species on the slow-fast continuum - the covariation among life-history traits describing species-specific life cycles along a gradient going from a long life, slow maturity, and low annual reproductive output, to a short life, fast maturity, and high annual reproductive output - strongly correlates with the relative fitness impact of a given amount of variation in adult survival. Under the canalization hypothesis, long-lived species are thus expected to display less individual heterogeneity in survival at the onset of adulthood, when reproductive values peak, than short-lived species. We tested this life-history prediction by analysing long-term time series of individual-based data in nine species of birds and mammals using capture-recapture models. We found that individual heterogeneity in survival was higher in species with short-generation time (< 3 years) than in species with long generation time (> 4 years). Our findings provide the first piece of empirical evidence for the canalization hypothesis at the individual level from the wild.

Des différences, pourquoi? Transmission, maintenance and effects of phenotypic variance.

Despite the observed distribution of variable individual phenotypes, survival and reproductive performance in wild populations, models of population dynamics often focus on mean demographic rates. Populations are constituted by individuals with different phenotypes and thus different performances. However, many models of population dynamics provide no understanding of the influence of this phenotypic variation on population dynamics. In this paper, we investigate how the relationships between demographic rates and phenotype distribution influence the transmission and the upholding of phenotypic variation, and population dynamics. We used integral projection models to measure associations between differences of phenotypic trait (size or mass) among individuals and demographic rates, growth and inheritance, and then quantify the influence of phenotypic variation on population dynamics. We build an analytical and general model resulting from simplifications assuming small phenotypic variance. We illustrate our model with two case studies: a short- and a long-lived life history. Population growth rate r is determined by a Lotka style equation in which survival and fertility are averaged over a phenotypic distribution that changes with age. Here, we further decomposed r to show how much it is affected by shifts in phenotypic average as well as variance. We derived the elasticities of r to the first and second derivative of each demographic rate. In particular, we show that the nonlinearity of change in selective pressure with phenotype matters more to population dynamics than the strength of this selection. In other words, the variance of a given trait will be most important when the strength of selection increases (or decreases) nonlinearly with that trait. Inheritance shapes the distribution of newborn phenotypes. Even if newborns have a fixed average phenotype, the variance among newborns increases with phenotypic variance among mothers, strength of inheritance and developmental variation. We explain how the components of inheritance can influence phenotypic variance and thus the demographic rates and population dynamics. In particular, when mothers of different ages produce offspring of different mean phenotype, the inheritance function can have a large influence on both the mean and variance of the trait at different ages and thus on the population growth rate. We provide new tools to understand how phenotypic variation influences population dynamics and discuss in which life histories we expect this influence to be large. For instance, in our short-lived life history, individual variability has larger effect than in our long-lived life history. We conclude by indicating future directions of analysis.

Quantifying the influence of measured and unmeasured individual differences on demography.

1. Demographic rates can vary not only with measured individual characters like age, sex and mass but also with unmeasured individual variables like behaviour, genes and health. 2. Predictions from population models that include measured individual characteristics often differ from models that exclude them. Similarly, unmeasured individual differences have the potential to impact predictions from population models. However, unmeasured individual differences are rarely included in population models. 3. We construct stage- and age-structured models (where stage is mass) of a roe deer population, which are parameterized from statistical functions that either include, or ignore, unmeasured individual differences. 4. We found that mass and age structures substantially impacted model parameters describing population dynamics, as did temporal environmental variation, while unmeasured individual differences impacted parameters describing population dynamics to a much smaller extent once individual heterogeneity related to mass and age has been included in the model. We discuss how our assumptions (unmeasured individual differences only in mean trait values) could have influenced our findings and under what circumstances unmeasured individual differences could have had a larger impact on population dynamics. 5. There are two reasons explaining the relative small influence of unmeasured individual differences on population dynamics in roe deer. First, individual body mass and age both capture a large amount of individual differences in roe deer. Second, in large populations of long-lived animals, the average quality of individuals (independent of age and mass) within the population is unlikely to show substantial variation over time, unless rapid evolution is occurring. So even though a population consisting of high-quality individuals would have much higher population growth rate than a population consisting of low-quality individuals, the probability of observing a population consisting only of high-quality individuals is small.

Disentangling direct and growth-mediated influences on early survival: a mechanistic approach.

1. Early survival is a key life-history trait that often accounts for a large part of the variation in individual fitness and shapes population dynamics. The factors influencing early survival are multiple in large herbivores, including malnutrition, predation, cohort variation or maternal effects. However, the mechanistic pathways connecting these drivers to variation in early survival are much less studied. Indeed, whether these factors influence early survival directly or indirectly through early growth remains to be disentangled. 2. In this study, we used a path analysis to separate the direct and indirect (i.e. mediated by early growth) pathways through which sex, birth date, cohort and family effects influence early survival. We used a large data set of marked roe deer newborns collected from 1985 to 2010 in the intensively monitored population of Trois Fontaines (France). 3. We found that most drivers have indirect influences on early survival through early growth. Indeed, cohort effects influenced early survival through the indirect effect of precipitation around birth on early growth. Precipitation also had direct effects on early survival. Family effects indirectly influenced early survival. Twins from the same litter grew at about the same rate, so they had the same fate. Moreover, some factors, such as birth date, had both direct and indirect effects on roe deer early survival, with fawns born early in the season benefiting from high early survival both because they have more time to grow before the harsh season and because they grow faster during their first days of life than late-born fawns. 4. These findings suggest that most drivers of early survival previously identified in large mammalian herbivores may affect early survival primarily through their influence on early growth. Disentangling the direct and indirect pathways by which different factors influence early survival is of crucial importance to understand the mechanisms shaping this key component of individual fitness.

Early-late life trade-offs and the evolution of ageing in the wild.

Empirical evidence for declines in fitness components (survival and reproductive performance) with age has recently accumulated in wild populations, highlighting that the process of senescence is nearly ubiquitous in the living world. Senescence patterns are highly variable among species and current evolutionary theories of ageing propose that such variation can be accounted for by differences in allocation to growth and reproduction during early life. Here, we compiled 26 studies of free-ranging vertebrate populations that explicitly tested for a trade-off between performance in early and late life. Our review brings overall support for the presence of early-late life trade-offs, suggesting that the limitation of available resources leads individuals to trade somatic maintenance later in life for high allocation to reproduction early in life. We discuss our results in the light of two closely related theories of ageing-the disposable soma and the antagonistic pleiotropy theories-and propose that the principle of energy allocation roots the ageing process in the evolution of life-history strategies. Finally, we outline research topics that should be investigated in future studies, including the importance of natal environmental conditions in the study of trade-offs between early- and late-life performance and the evolution of sex-differences in ageing patterns.

Comparative analysis of transposable elements highlights mobilome diversity and evolution in vertebrates.

Transposable elements (TEs) are major components of vertebrate genomes, with major roles in genome architecture and evolution. In order to characterize both common patterns and lineage-specific differences in TE content and TE evolution, we have compared the mobilomes of 23 vertebrate genomes, including 10 actinopterygian fish, 11 sarcopterygians, and 2 nonbony vertebrates. We found important variations in TE content (from 6% in the pufferfish tetraodon to 55% in zebrafish), with a more important relative contribution of TEs to genome size in fish than in mammals. Some TE superfamilies were found to be widespread in vertebrates, but most elements showed a more patchy distribution, indicative of multiple events of loss or gain. Interestingly, loss of major TE families was observed during the evolution of the sarcopterygian lineage, with a particularly strong reduction in TE diversity in birds and mammals. Phylogenetic trends in TE composition and activity were detected: Teleost fish genomes are dominated by DNA transposons and contain few ancient TE copies, while mammalian genomes have been predominantly shaped by nonlong terminal repeat retrotransposons, along with the persistence of older sequences. Differences were also found within lineages: The medaka fish genome underwent more recent TE amplification than the related platyfish, as observed for LINE retrotransposons in the mouse compared with the human genome. This study allows the identification of putative cases of horizontal transfer of TEs, and to tentatively infer the composition of the ancestral vertebrate mobilome. Taken together, the results obtained highlight the importance of TEs in the structure and evolution of vertebrate genomes, and demonstrate their major impact on genome diversity both between and within lineages.

Fitness consequences of environmental conditions at different life stages in a long-lived vertebrate.

The predictive adaptive response (PAR) hypothesis proposes that animals adjust their physiology and developmental trajectory during early life in anticipation of their future environments. Accordingly, when environmental conditions in early life match environmental conditions during adulthood, individual fitness should be greater. Here, we test this hypothesis in a long-lived mammal, the roe deer, using data from two contrasting populations, intensively monitored for more than 35 years. In the highly productive site, the fitness of female roe deer increased with the quality of environment during adulthood and, contrary to predictions of PAR, individuals born in good conditions always outperformed those born under poor conditions. In the resource-limited site, the fitness of female roe deer born in poor years was better than those born in good conditions in poor years when the animals were adult, but not in good years. Although consistent with predictions of PAR, we showed that this pattern is likely to be a consequence of increased viability selection during the juvenile stage for animals born in poor years. While PARs are often advanced in evolutionary medicine, our findings suggest that detailed biological processes should be investigated before drawing conclusions about the existence of this phenomenon.

Mismatch between birth date and vegetation phenology slows the demography of roe deer.

Marked impacts of climate change on biodiversity have frequently been demonstrated, including temperature-related shifts in phenology and life-history traits. One potential major impact of climate change is the modification of synchronization between the phenology of different trophic levels. High phenotypic plasticity in laying date has allowed many bird species to track the increasingly early springs resulting from recent environmental change, but although changes in the timing of reproduction have been well studied in birds, these questions have only recently been addressed in mammals. To track peak resource availability, large herbivores like roe deer, with a widespread distribution across Europe, should also modify their life-history schedule in response to changes in vegetation phenology over time. In this study, we analysed the influence of climate change on the timing of roe deer births and the consequences for population demography and individual fitness. Our study provides a rare quantification of the demographic costs associated with the failure of a species to modify its phenology in response to a changing world. Given these fitness costs, the lack of response of roe deer birth dates to match the increasingly earlier onset of spring is in stark contrast with the marked phenotypic responses to climate change reported in many other mammals. We suggest that the lack of phenotypic plasticity in birth timing in roe deer is linked to its inability to track environmental cues of variation in resource availability for the timing of parturition.

How does climate change influence demographic processes of widespread species? Lessons from the comparative analysis of contrasted populations of roe deer.

How populations respond to climate change depends on the interplay between life history, resource availability, and the intensity of the change. Roe deer are income breeders, with high levels of allocation to reproduction, and are hence strongly constrained by the availability of high quality resources during spring. We investigated how recent climate change has influenced demographic processes in two populations of this widespread species. Spring began increasingly earlier over the study, allowing us to identify 2 periods with contrasting onset of spring. Both populations grew more slowly when spring was early. As expected for a long-lived and iteroparous species, adult survival had the greatest potential impact on population growth. Using perturbation analyses, we measured the relative contribution of the demographic parameters to observed variation in population growth, both within and between periods and populations. Within periods, the identity of the critical parameter depended on the variance in growth rate, but variation in recruitment was the main driver of observed demographic change between periods of contrasting spring earliness. Our results indicate that roe deer in forest habitats cannot currently cope with increasingly early springs. We hypothesise that they should shift their distribution to richer, more heterogeneous landscapes to offset energetic requirements during the critical rearing stage.

Parturition date for a given female is highly repeatable within five roe deer populations.

Births are highly synchronized among females in many mammal populations in temperate areas. Although laying date for a given female is also repeatable within populations of birds, limited evidence suggests low repeatability of parturition date for individual females in mammals, and between-population variability in repeatability has never, to our knowledge, been assessed. We quantified the repeatability of parturition date for individual females in five populations of roe deer, which we found to vary between 0.54 and 0.93. Each year, some females gave birth consistently earlier in the year, whereas others gave birth consistently later. In addition, all females followed the same lifetime trajectory for parturition date, giving birth progressively earlier as they aged. Giving birth early should allow mothers to increase offspring survival, although few females managed to do so. The marked repeatability of parturition date in roe deer females is the highest ever reported for a mammal, suggesting low phenotypic plasticity in this trait.