The incidence of West Nile disease in Russia in relation to climatic and environmental factors.

Since 1999, human cases of West Nile fever/neuroinvasive disease (WND) have been reported annually in Russia. The highest incidence has been recorded in three provinces of southern European Russia (Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov Provinces), yet in 2010-2012 the distribution of human cases expanded northwards considerably. From year to year, the number of WND cases varied widely, with major WND outbreaks in 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2012. The present study was aimed at identifying the most important climatic and environmental factors potentially affecting WND incidence in the three above-mentioned provinces and at building simple prognostic models, using those factors, by the decision trees method. The effects of 96 variables, including mean monthly temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, etc. were taken into account. The findings of this analysis show that an increase of human WND incidence, compared to the previous year, was mostly driven by higher temperatures in May and/or in June, as well as (to a lesser extent) by high August-September temperatures. Declining incidence was associated with cold winters (December and/or January, depending on the region and type of model). WND incidence also tended to decrease during year following major WND outbreaks. Combining this information, the future trend of WND may be, to some extent, predicted, in accordance with the climatic conditions observed before the summer peak of WND incidence.

Epidemiology of West Nile infection in Volgograd, Russia, in relation to climate change and mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) bionomics.

In 1999, there was the large outbreak of West Nile fever (WNF) in Southern Russia (>500 cases in the Volgograd Province). In 2000-2004, the WNF incidence rate decreased steadily to zero, but a new outbreak occurred in 2007 (64 cases). The analysis of historical climate data for Volgograd from 1900 to present showed that the years 1999 and 2007 were the hottest ones due to a very mild "winter" (Dec.-Mar.) and a hot "summer" (June-Sep.). There are up to 15 potential WNF vectors in Volgograd, but only Culex pipiens and Culex modestus are abundant in late summer, both in urban and rural settings. Only these species are naturally attracted to and feed on both humans and birds. The RNA of pathogenic WN virus genovariant was found by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction only in Culex mosquitoes at the infection rate of about 0.04%. So these species may be considered as potential WNF "bridge vectors" between birds and humans as well as main vectors in sylvatic avain cycle. Their abundance in an epidemic season was higher in the years with a mild winter and a hot summer, so this phenomenon may serve as a connecting link between a climate and WNF epidemiology. These findings give some hints on the predisposing factors for WNF epidemic as well as the possibility to predict WNF outbreaks in the temperate climate zones.

Evaluation of potential West Nile virus vectors in Volgograd region, Russia, 2003 (Diptera: Culicidae): species composition, bloodmeal host utilization, and virus infection rates of mosquitoes.

Potential West Nile virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus, WNV) vectors were assessed during 2003 at indoor and outdoor collection sites in urban Volgograd, Russia, and in three nearby towns and surrounding rural areas. In total, 9,182 female mosquitoes comprising 13 species in six genera were collected. Relative abundance and bloodmeal host utilization differed temporarily and spatially. During June and July in Volgograd, Aedes vexans (Meigen) (85.4%) and Culex p. pipiens L. (7.6%) were the two most abundant species collected indoors, whereas during August, Cx. p. pipiens was the dominant species, accounting for 87.9% of specimens collected. Two WNV-positive mosquito pools were detected in August: one pool was composed of Cx. p. pipiens and the other pool of Culex modestus Ficalbi. Anopheles messeae Falleroni, Aedes caspius (Pallas), Ae. vexans, Cx. modestus, and Cx. p. pipiens used both humans and birds as bloodmeal sources. In urban areas, 20.4% of the Cx. p. pipiens fed on humans, 58.1% fed on chickens, and six specimens were positive for both chicken and human blood. Culex p. pipiens collected from flooded basements were predominantly autogenous (91.7%), whereas adult females resting in buildings with dry basements were composed of 67.5% anautogenous and 32.5% autogenous specimens. Our data suggest that the primary WNV vectors in the Volgograd region were Cx. p. pipiens and Cx. modestus and that intense transmission of WNV to humans in urban areas during the epidemic of 1999 may have been facilitated by the abundance and concentration of anautogenous Cx. p. pipiens in multistory buildings. The role of autogenous Cx. p. pipiens in urban transmission remains unresolved.