Using benefit-cost analysis to assess child abuse prevention and intervention programs.

Benefits and costs are discussed when child abuse prevention and intervention programs are proposed and evaluated, but systemic benefit-cost analysis as developed by economists has not been applied to such programs. This article presents the case for using benefit-cost analysis to structure evaluations of child abuse prevention and intervention programs. It presents the basic concept of benefit-cost analysis, its application in the context of assessing these types of child welfare programs, and limitations on its application to social service programs.

Child poverty can be reduced.

Child poverty can be reduced by policies that help families earn more and supplement earned income with other sources of cash. A comprehensive antipoverty strategy could use a combination of these approaches. This article reviews recent U.S. experience with these broad approaches to reducing child poverty and discusses lessons from abroad for U.S. policymakers. The evidence reviewed suggests that, although policies to increase earned incomes among low-wage workers can help, these earnings gains will not be sufficient to reduce child poverty substantially. Government income support programs, tax policy, and child support payments from absent parents can be used to supplement earned incomes of poor families with children. Until recently, Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) was the main government assistance program for low-income families with children. Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) has recently replaced AFDC. This article explains why TANF benefits are likely to be less than AFDC benefits. The article also examines the effects of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income on child poverty. The most encouraging recent development in antipoverty policy has been the decline in the federal tax burden on poor families, primarily as a result of the expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), now the largest cash assistance program for families with children. In 1995, government transfer programs (including the value of cash, food, housing, medical care, and taxes) decreased child poverty by 38% (from 24.2% to 14.2% of children under 18). Child poverty may also be reduced by policies that increase contributions from absent single parents to support their children. Overall, evidence from the United States and other developed countries suggests that a variety of approaches to reducing child poverty are feasible. Implementation of effective programs will depend, however, on the nation's political willingness to devote more resources to this end.

Adolescent premarital childbearing: do economic incentives matter?

PIP: This paper develops and tests a three-stage nested logistic model of teenage childbearing that is influenced by economic incentives and costs created by US public policy. The modeling of teenage childbearing involves becoming pregnant, the choice to have an abortion or to bear the child, and the choice to bear the child premaritally or maritally. Data were obtained from a sample of 1718 Black and White women aged 14-16 years in 1979 from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. In 1990, the birth rate among unmarried youth was 29.5/1000 unmarried White women vs. 110.1/1000 unmarried Black women. In the sample, the pregnancy rate was 24% among White teenagers and 48% among Black teenagers. Miscarriages or stillbirths occurred among 11% of Whites and 12% of Blacks. Abortions were performed for 37% of Whites and 12% of Blacks. An incentive variable is the welfare guarantee. Cost variables include the cost of obtaining an abortion and the cost of obtaining contraceptive services and supplies. Access to family planning services is also accounted for in the model. Findings indicate that welfare, abortion, and family planning policy variables have a racially specific impact. For White teenagers, these variables have significant effects on pregnancy outcomes. For Black teenagers, the insignificance may reflect differences in sample size or important unmeasured racial differences in factors that influence fertility and marital behavior. The authors suggest that the rational choice perspective does not adequately explain premarital childbearing. It is also suggested that the specification of the variables on abortion, family planning, and adolescent sexual behavior may be fundamentally different and reflect differences in state attitudes and social customs. Only if the policy variables really change the costs of different pregnancy outcomes will changes in social policy change individual adolescent behavior. The authors state that focusing on only economic incentives did not rule out other influences on premarital childbearing.^ieng

Adolescent fertility and the educational attainment of young women.

Analyses based on a sample of 2,795 women interviewed annually from 1979 through 1991 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth show that early childbearing lowers the educational attainment of young women. After controls for an extensive set of personal and community characteristics are taken into account, having a child before age 20 significantly reduces schooling attained by almost three years among whites, blacks and Hispanics. Having a child before age 18 has a significant effect only among blacks, reducing years of schooling by 1.2 years.

PIP: The authors present new estimates of the relationship between teenage childbearing and educational attainment. The analyses are based upon a sample of 2795 young women interviewed annually over the period 1979-91 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Subjects were 1445 whites, 906 blacks, and 444 Hispanics aged 14-20 in 1979, except for those in the special military subsample or the oversample of economically disadvantaged whites. Controlling for an extensive set of personal and community characteristics, researchers found that childbearing as a teenager lowers the educational attainment of young women. Schooling attained among whites, blacks, and Hispanics was reduced by almost three years among those who bore a child before age 20. Having a child before age 18, however, has a significant effect among only blacks, reducing years of schooling by 1.2 years. Other recent research has reported that the social and economic effects of teenage childbearing are not as great as early studies of the relationship between teenage childbearing and adult outcomes had suggested. The results of this study, however, suggest that such revisionist findings are open to challenge.

Applying benefit-cost analysis to substance use prevention programs.

Benefits and costs are discussed when substance use prevention programs are proposed and evaluated, but systematic benefit-cost analysis has rarely been applied to such programs. This article argues that benefit-cost analysis can and should be used to structure evaluations of substance use prevention programs, and, in general, any program aimed at preventing dysfunctional behavior. It presents the basic ideas of benefit-cost analysis and its closely related tool, cost-effectiveness analysis. It then sketches a "blueprint" for a benefit-cost analysis of an experimental drug use prevention program intended to prevent relapse into drug use by parents receiving methadone maintenance and to lower the risk that the children of these parents will become substance users. The blueprint can help structure evaluations of other prevention programs.

The effect of social policies on teenage pregnancy and childbearing.

PIP: A review of recent research findings suggests that social policies have a significant effect on adolescent pregnancy and its outcomes. Excluded from the analysis were studies that did not control for the influence of personal, familial, and environmental factors on adolescent sexual behavior. Policies most likely to prevent undesired outcomes are those offering tangible family planning services and improving both the access to and affordability of abortion. Most effective in improving contraceptive use among teenagers appear to be comprehensive community-based programs with links to local schools. There is no evidence that efforts to promote values such as abstinence or enhance self-esteem are successful. However, job training, guaranteed student loans, and other measures that improve the educational and earnings opportunities of adolescents may have an indirect impact on reducing teenage pregnancy and childbearing by providing an incentive for deferred parenthood. The research concerning the impact of AFDC benefits is inconclusive, but higher welfare benefits appear to discourage marriage. In addition, the deteriorating economic status of young males over the past 15 years has increased the proportion of out-of-wedlock births.^ieng

The effects of skills and intentions to use drugs on posttreatment drug use of adolescents.

The present study examines the relationship between (a) social, cognitive, and behavioral skills; (b) self-reported intentions to use drugs and alcohol following treatment; and (c) later drug and alcohol use for a sample of 130 adolescents. Social, problem solving, self-control, and drug and alcohol avoidance skills were significantly related to marijuana use, variety and severity of drug use, and to the number of drug-free months for female subjects at 12-month follow-up. These skills did not have a statistically significant direct effect on any measured drug outcomes for males. However, skills did lower male subjects' intentions to use drugs or alcohol. Decreased intentions to use, in turn, were associated with less drug and alcohol use, suggesting an indirect relationship between skills and reductions in drug and alcohol use among males at 12-month follow-up. Implications for the treatment of adolescents who engage in drug and alcohol use are discussed.

Changes in poverty, income inequality, and the standard of living in the United States during the Reagan years.

The record of economic well-being in the 1980s belied Reagan's claim that Americans would be better off if they scaled back the welfare state and cut tax rates. Though the standard of living rose, its growth was no faster than during 1950-1980. Income inequality increased. The rate of poverty at the end of Reagan's term was the same as in 1980. Cutbacks in income transfers during the Reagan years helped increase both poverty and inequality. Changes in tax policy helped increase inequality but reduced poverty. These policy shifts are not the only reasons for the lack of progress against poverty and the rise in inequality. Broad social and economic factors have been widening income differences and making it harder for families to stay out of poverty. Policy choices during the Reagan Administration reinforced those factors.

Attitudes and adolescent nonmarital childbearing: evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

PIP: The 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) provided data for the analysis of the impact of self-esteem, locus of control, attitudes towards women's family roles, work, and school on the probability of a nonmarital birth. The study avoided methodological problems of prior studies by using a national data base with attitude measured before nonmarital childbearing occurs. No prior studies included these 5 factors. Previous research on attitudes and nonmarital childbearing is summarized. Theoretical models imply that self-esteem, high educational goals, and an internal locus of control are associated with a lower likelihood of a nonmarital birth. The conceptual model for this study is described. It does not include how attitudes develop or estimate the linkage between family background variables and attitudes. A reduced from approach was used and controls were included for 6 family background and personal variables. The sample of 1184 girls was restricted to those aged 14 or 15 years in 1979 who were never married or had a child. 16.9% of the sample had a nonmarital child by 19 years. Measurement of explanatory variables is indicated as the Rosenberg Self Esteem Scale and the Rotter scale for internal-external locus of control. A 7-item scale measured women's roles, an 8-item scale measured attitudes toward school, and 3 items assessed views on the importance of improving one's employment prospects. Background control variables were race/ethnicity, mother's education, presence of welfare income, family income, family structure, and religiosity. The standard logistics technique was used to estimate the logarithm of the odds of having a nonmarital birth as a linear function of both attitude and family background variables. Models were estimated both with and without the educational expectation variable. The results appear to indicate that self-esteem and attitudes toward school are associated with nonmarital childbearing, as predicted by theory. Locus of control does not systematically affect the likelihood of nonmarital childbearing, nor do family and gender roles and attitudes toward work. Educational expectations are not associated, but may act as an intervening variable.^ieng

Effects of state welfare, abortion and family planning policies on premarital childbearing among white adolescents.

This study develops an empirical model that measures the influence of state welfare, abortion and family planning policies on decisions concerning premarital pregnancy, abortion and single parenthood. Data are based on the fertility and marital experiences of white females from the three youngest cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, for 1979-1986. The results show that laws restricting contraceptive availability are associated with a higher risk of pregnancy. Restrictive policies on public funding of abortions reduce the likelihood of abortion, while greater availability of abortion services is associated with a higher likelihood that adolescents will obtain abortions. Finally, the estimates indicate that higher welfare benefits reduce the probability that pregnant adolescents will marry before bearing their children.

Directions for reducing child poverty.

The rate of child poverty in the United States is higher now than in 1966. Children are the poorest age group and are more likely to be poor than children in other industrial economies. The level and trends in child poverty are analyzed; the major American income support policies for children, including recent reforms of Aid to Families with Dependent Children, are described; and the impact of those policies on poverty are evaluated. Alternate strategies for reducing child poverty, including an expanded Earned Income Tax Credit, child support system reforms, and a medical insurance plan, are proposed. Pragmatic, administratively feasible policies exist that can substantially reduce child poverty without significant new government spending.