Dynamics of land cover changes and carbon emissions driven by large dams in China.

The recent surge in dam construction has sparked debates regarding their contribution to carbon neutrality and food security, focusing on trade-offs between production benefits and ecological drawbacks. However, how dams affect carbon emissions and land cover changes, including their spatial differentiations, remains unclear. We quantified spatiotemporal variations in carbon emissions and storage of 137 large dams in China from 1992 to 2020, resulting from land cover change in potentially affected areas. We observed a lesser increase in carbon emissions and a more pronounced increase in carbon storage driven by forest conservation and regeneration within dam-affected areas compared to unaffected areas. Additionally, we noticed an increased grain yield in nearby areas potentially due to increased water availability. Our findings highlight the importance of considering land cover change when assessing carbon neutrality or grain yield at regional and national scales. This study provides useful insights into optimizing dam locations to mitigate future carbon emissions effectively.

Warming temperatures exacerbate groundwater depletion rates in India.

Climate change will likely increase crop water demand, and farmers may adapt by applying more irrigation. Understanding the extent to which this is occurring is of particular importance in India, a global groundwater depletion hotspot, where increased withdrawals may further jeopardize groundwater resources. Using historical data on groundwater levels, climate, and crop water stress, we find that farmers have adapted to warming temperatures by intensifying groundwater withdrawals, substantially accelerating groundwater depletion rates in India. When considering increased withdrawals due to warming, we project that the rates of net groundwater loss for 2041-2080 could be three times current depletion rates, even after considering projected increases in precipitation and possible decreases in irrigation use as groundwater tables fall. These results reveal a previously unquantified cost of adapting to warming temperatures that will likely further threaten India's food and water security over the coming decades.

Double stress of waterlogging and drought drives forest-savanna coexistence.

Forest-savanna boundaries are ecotones that support complex ecosystem functions and are sensitive to biotic/abiotic perturbations. What drives their distribution today and how it may shift in the future are open questions. Feedbacks among climate, fire, herbivory, and land use are known drivers. Here, we show that alternating seasonal drought and waterlogging stress favors the dominance of savanna-like ecosystems over forests. We track the seasonal water-table depth as an indicator of water stress when too deep and oxygen stress when too shallow and map forest/savanna occurrence within this double-stress space in the neotropics. We find that under a given annual precipitation, savannas are favored in landscape positions experiencing double stress, which is more common as the dry season strengthens (climate driver) but only found in waterlogged lowlands (terrain driver). We further show that hydrological changes at the end of the century may expose some flooded forests to savanna expansion, affecting biodiversity and soil carbon storage. Our results highlight the importance of land hydrology in understanding/predicting forest-savanna transitions in a changing world.

A synthesis of hydroclimatic, ecological, and socioeconomic data for transdisciplinary research in the Mekong.

The Mekong River basin (MRB) is a transboundary basin that supports livelihoods of over 70 million inhabitants and diverse terrestrial-aquatic ecosystems. This critical lifeline for people and ecosystems is under transformation due to climatic stressors and human activities (e.g., land use change and dam construction). Thus, there is an urgent need to better understand the changing hydrological and ecological systems in the MRB and develop improved adaptation strategies. This, however, is hampered partly by lack of sufficient, reliable, and accessible observational data across the basin. Here, we fill this long-standing gap for MRB by synthesizing climate, hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic data from various disparate sources. The data- including groundwater records digitized from the literature-provide crucial insights into surface water systems, groundwater dynamics, land use patterns, and socioeconomic changes. The analyses presented also shed light on uncertainties associated with various datasets and the most appropriate choices. These datasets are expected to advance socio-hydrological research and inform science-based management decisions and policymaking for sustainable food-energy-water, livelihood, and ecological systems in the MRB.

Oceanic climate changes threaten the sustainability of Asia's water tower.

Water resources sustainability in High Mountain Asia (HMA) surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP)-known as Asia's water tower-has triggered widespread concerns because HMA protects millions of people against water stress1,2. However, the mechanisms behind the heterogeneous trends observed in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over the TP remain poorly understood. Here we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model and satellite observations to attribute about 1 Gt of monthly TWS decline in the southern TP during 2003-2016 to westerlies-carried deficit in precipitation minus evaporation (PME) from the southeast North Atlantic. We further show that HMA blocks the propagation of PME deficit into the central TP, causing a monthly TWS increase by about 0.5 Gt. Furthermore, warming-induced snow and glacial melt as well as drying-induced TWS depletion in HMA weaken the blocking of HMA's mountains, causing persistent northward expansion of the TP's TWS deficit since 2009. Future projections under two emissions scenarios verified by satellite observations during 2020-2021 indicate that, by the end of the twenty-first century, up to 84% (for scenario SSP245) and 97% (for scenario SSP585) of the TP could be afflicted by TWS deficits. Our findings indicate a trajectory towards unsustainable water systems in HMA that could exacerbate downstream water stress.

The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change.

Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons.

Implications of changes in climate and human development on 21st-century global drought risk.

Climate change is expected to exacerbate drought conditions over many global regions. However, the future risk posed by droughts depends not only on the climate-induced changes but also on the changes in societal exposure and vulnerability to droughts. Here we illustrate how the consideration of human vulnerability alters global drought risk associated with runoff (hydrological) and soil moisture (agriculture) droughts during the 21st-century. We combine the changes in drought frequency, population growth, and human development as a proxy of vulnerability to project global drought risk under plausible climate and socioeconomic development pathways. Results indicate that the shift toward a pathway of high greenhouse gas emissions and socioeconomic inequality leads to i) increased population exposure to runoff and soil moisture droughts by 81% and seven folds, respectively, and ii) a stagnation of human development. These consequences are more pronounced for populations living in low than in very high human development countries. In particular, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where the majority of the world's less developed countries are located, fare the worst in terms of future drought risk. The disparity in risk between low and very high human development countries can be substantially reduced in the presence of a shift toward a world of rapid and sustainable development that actively reduces social inequality and emissions. Our results underscore the importance of rapid human development in hotspots of drought risk where effective adaptation is most needed to reduce future drought impacts.

Hydrologic balance and inundation dynamics of Southeast Asia's largest inland lake altered by hydropower dams in the Mekong River basin.

Inland lakes have been increasingly impacted by climate change and human activities, leading to unprecedented environmental consequences. Among many rapidly changing lakes is the Tonlé Sap Lake (TSL) in Cambodia-Southeast Asia's largest inland lake-which is under growing threats from altered flows and inundation dynamics due to compounding effects of climate change and dam construction in the Mekong River basin (MRB). While previous studies have examined the potential causes of recent changes in open water areas, a mechanistic quantification of the lake's shifting hydrologic balance and inundation dynamics due to natural climate variability and dam operations is lacking. Here, using a hydrological-hydrodynamic modeling system that includes the major dams in the MRB, we show that while climate variability has been a key driver of inter-decadal variabilities in the lake's water balance, the operation of Mekong dams has exerted a growing influence-especially after 2010-on the Mekong flood pulse, Tonlé Sap River's flow reversal, and the TSL's inundation dynamics. The dam-induced dampening of the Mekong's peak discharge increased from 1-2% during 1979-2009 to ~7% in the 2010s, causing comparable alterations in the peak of inflow from the Mekong into TSL. More crucially, during the 2010s, the dams caused a reduction in annual inflow volume into TSL by 10-25% and shortened the annual inundation duration by up to 15 days in the lake's periphery. Further, seasonally inundated areas decreased (increased) most substantially by ~245 km2 or ~3% (~270 km2 or ~6%) in August (April) during the 2010s. These results demonstrate that Mekong dams have already caused substantial alterations in the hydrologic balance and inundation dynamics of the TSL. Our findings offer critical insights relevant for improved transboundary water management and decision making in light of growing concerns about the adverse impacts of large dams in the MRB.

Drying in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean contributed to terrestrial water storage depletion across Eurasia.

Eurasia, home to ~70% of global population, is characterized by (semi-)arid climate. Water scarcity in the mid-latitude Eurasia (MLE) has been exacerbated by a consistent decline in terrestrial water storage (TWS), attributed primarily to human activities. However, the atmospheric mechanisms behind such TWS decline remain unclear. Here, we investigate teleconnections between drying in low-latitude North Atlantic Ocean (LNATO) and TWS depletions across MLE. We elucidate mechanistic linkages and detecte high correlations between decreased TWS in MLE and the decreased precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration (PME) in LNATO. TWS in MLE declines by ~257% during 2003-2017 due to northeastward propagation of PME deficit following two distinct seasonal landfalling routes during January-May and June-January. The same mechanism reduces TWS during 2031-2050 by ~107% and ~447% under scenarios SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. Our findings highlight the risk of increased future water scarcity across MLE caused by large-scale climatic drivers, compounding the impacts of human activities.

Feasibility of hybrid in-stream generator-photovoltaic systems for Amazonian off-grid communities.

While there have been efforts to supply off-grid energy in the Amazon, these attempts have focused on low upfront costs and deployment rates. These "get-energy-quick" methods have almost solely adopted diesel generators, ignoring the environmental and social risks associated with the known noise and pollution of combustion engines. Alternatively, it is recommended, herein, to supply off-grid needs with renewable, distributed microgrids comprised of photovoltaics (PV) and in-stream generators (ISG). Utilization of a hybrid combination of renewable generators can provide an energetically, environmentally, and financially feasible alternative to typical electrification methods, depending on available solar irradiation and riverine characteristics, that with community engagement allows for a participatory codesign process that takes into consideration people's needs. A convergent solution development framework that includes designers-a team of social scientists, engineers, and communication specialists-and communities as well as the local industry is examined here, by which the future negative impacts at the human-machine-environment nexus can be minimized by iterative, continuous interaction between these key actors.

Future hydrology and hydrological extremes under climate change in Asian river basins.

The diverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the spatiotemporal distribution of global freshwater are generally addressed through global scale studies, which suffer from uncertainties arising from coarse spatial resolution. Multi-catchment, regional studies provide fine-grained details of these impacts but remain less explored. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on the hydrology of 19 river basins from different geographical and climatic conditions in South and Southeast Asia. We find that these two regions will get warmer (1.5 to 7.8 °C) and wetter (- 3.4 to 46.2%) with the expected increment in river flow (- 18.5 to 109%) at the end of the twenty-first century under climate change. An increase in seasonal hydro-climatic extremes in South Asia and the rising intensity of hydro-climatic extremes during only one season in Southeast Asia illustrates high spatiotemporal variability in the impact of climate change and augments the importance of similar studies on a larger scale for broader understanding.

Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change.

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale.

Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change.

Globally, flood risk is projected to increase in the future due to climate change and population growth. Here, we quantify the role of dams in flood mitigation, previously unaccounted for in global flood studies, by simulating the floodplain dynamics and flow regulation by dams. We show that, ignoring flow regulation by dams, the average number of people exposed to flooding below dams amount to 9.1 and 15.3 million per year, by the end of the 21st century (holding population constant), for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 6.0, respectively. Accounting for dams reduces the number of people exposed to floods by 20.6 and 12.9% (for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, respectively). While environmental problems caused by dams warrant further investigations, our results indicate that consideration of dams significantly affect the estimation of future population exposure to flood, emphasizing the need to integrate them in model-based impact analysis of climate change.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

Potential Disruption of Flood Dynamics in the Lower Mekong River Basin Due to Upstream Flow Regulation.

The Mekong River Basin (MRB) is undergoing unprecedented changes due to the recent acceleration in large-scale dam construction. While the hydrology of the MRB is well understood and the effects of some of the existing dams have been studied, the potential effects of the planned dams on flood pulse dynamics over the entire Lower Mekong remains unexamined. Here, using hydrodynamic model simulations, we show that the effects of flow regulation on downstream river-floodplain dynamics are relatively predictable along the mainstream Mekong, but flow regulations could potentially disrupt the flood dynamics in the Tonle Sap River (TSR) and small distributaries in the Mekong Delta. Results suggest that TSR flow reversal could cease if the Mekong flood pulse is dampened by 50% and delayed by one-month. While flood occurrence in the vicinity of the Tonle Sap Lake and middle reach of the delta could increase due to enhanced low flow, it could decrease by up to five months in other areas due to dampened high flow, particularly during dry years. Further, areas flooded for less than five months and over six months are likely to be impacted significantly by flow regulations, but those flooded for 5-6 months could be impacted the least.