Prospective validation of a hospital triage predictive model to decrease undertriage: an EAST multicenter study.

Background: Tiered trauma team activation (TTA) allows systems to optimally allocate resources to an injured patient. Target undertriage and overtriage rates of <5% and <35% are difficult for centers to achieve, and performance variability exists. The objective of this study was to optimize and externally validate a previously developed hospital trauma triage prediction model to predict the need for emergent intervention in 6 hours (NEI-6), an indicator of need for a full TTA. Methods: The model was previously developed and internally validated using data from 31 US trauma centers. Data were collected prospectively at five sites using a mobile application which hosted the NEI-6 model. A weighted multiple logistic regression model was used to retrain and optimize the model using the original data set and a portion of data from one of the prospective sites. The remaining data from the five sites were designated for external validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) were used to assess the validation cohort. Subanalyses were performed for age, race, and mechanism of injury. Results: 14 421 patients were included in the training data set and 2476 patients in the external validation data set across five sites. On validation, the model had an overall undertriage rate of 9.1% and overtriage rate of 53.7%, with an AUROC of 0.80 and an AUPRC of 0.63. Blunt injury had an undertriage rate of 8.8%, whereas penetrating injury had 31.2%. For those aged ≥65, the undertriage rate was 8.4%, and for Black or African American patients the undertriage rate was 7.7%. Conclusion: The optimized and externally validated NEI-6 model approaches the recommended undertriage and overtriage rates while significantly reducing variability of TTA across centers for blunt trauma patients. The model performs well for populations that traditionally have high rates of undertriage. Level of evidence: 2.

Physiologic parameters and radiologic findings can predict pulmonary complications and guide management in traumatic rib fractures.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic rib fracture is associated with a high morbidity rate and identifying patients at risk of developing pulmonary complications (PC) can guide management and potentially decrease unnecessary intensive care admissions. Therefore, we sought to assess and compare the utility of a physiologic parameter, vital capacity (VC), with the admission radiologic findings (RibScore) in predicting PC in patients with rib fractures. METHODS: This is a single-center retrospective review (2015-2018) of all adult (≥18 years) patients admitted to a Level I trauma center with traumatic rib fracture. Exclusion criteria included no CT scan and absence of VC within 48 h of admission. The cohort was stratified into two groups based on presence or absence of PC (pneumonia, unplanned intubation, unplanned transfer to the intensive care unit for a respiratory concern, or the need for a tracheostomy). Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to identify predictors of PC. RESULTS: A total of 654 patients met the inclusion criteria of whom 70 % were males. The median age was 51 years and fall (48 %) was the most common type of injury. A total of 36 patients (5.5 %) developed a pulmonary complication. These patients were more likely to be older, had a higher ISS, and were more likely to require a tube thoracostomy placement. On multivariable logistic regression, first VC ≤30 % (AOR: 4.29), day 1 VC ≤30 % (AOR: 3.61), day 2 VC ≤30 % (AOR: 5.54), Δ(Day2-Day1 VC) (AOR: 0.96), and RibScore ≥2 (AOR: 3.19) were significantly associated with PC. On discrimination analysis, day 2 VC had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC), 0.81, and was superior to first VC and day 1 VC in predicting PC. There was no statistically significant difference in predicting PC between day 2 VC and RibScore. On multivariable analysis, first VC ≤30 %, day 1 VC ≤30 %, day 2 VC ≤30 %, and admission RibScore ≥2 were associated with prolonged hospital and ICU LOS. CONCLUSION: VC and RibScore emerged as independent predictors of PC. However, VC was not found to be superior to RibScore in predicting PC. Further prospective research is warranted to validate the findings of this study.

The Variation of Withdrawal of Life Sustaining Therapy in Older Adults With Traumatic Brain Injury.

INTRODUCTION: The decision to withdraw life sustaining treatment (WDLST) in older adults with traumatic brain injury is subject to wide variability leading to nonbeneficial interventions and unnecessary use of hospital resources. We hypothesized that patient and hospital factors are associated with WDLST and WDLST timing. METHODS: All traumatic brain injury patients ≥65 with Glasgow coma scores (GCS) of 4-11 from 2018 to 2019 at level I and II centers were selected from the National Trauma Data Bank. Patients with head abbreviated injury scores 5-6 or death within 24 h were excluded. Bayesian additive regression tree analysis was performed to identify the cumulative incidence function (CIF) and the relative risks (RR) over time for withdrawal of care, discharge to hospice (DH), and death. Death alone (no WDLST or DH) served as the comparator group for all analyses. A subanalysis of the composite outcome WDLST/DH (defined as end-of-life-care), with death (no WDLST or DH) as a comparator cohort was performed. RESULTS: We included 2126 patients, of whom 1957 (57%) underwent WDLST, 402 (19%) died, and 469 (22%) were DH. 60% of patients were male, and the mean age was 80 y. The majority of patients were injured by fall (76%, n = 1644). Patients who were DH were more often female (51% DH versus 39% WDLST), had a past medical history of dementia (45% DH versus 18% WDLST), and had lower admission injury severity score (14 DH versus 18.6 WDLST) (P < 0.001). Compared to those who DH, those who underwent WDLST had a lower GCS (9.8 versus 8.4, P < 0.001). CIF of WDSLT and DH increased with age, stabilizing by day 3. At day 3, patients ≥90 y had an increased RR of DH compared to WDLST (RR 2.5 versus 1.4). As GCS increased, CIF and RR of WDLST decreased, while CIF and RR of DH increased (RR on day 3 for GCS 12: WDLST 0.42 versus DH 1.31).Patients at nonprofit institutions were more likely to undergo WDLST (RR 1.15) compared to DH (0.68). Compared to patients of White race, patients of Black race had a lower RR of WDLST at all timepoints. CONCLUSIONS: Patient and hospital factors influence the practice of end-of-life-care (WDLST, DH, and death), highlighting the need to better understand variability to target palliative care interventions and standardize care across populations and trauma centers.

The efficacy of various Enoxaparin dosing regimens in general surgery patients: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing surgical procedures are at an increased risk of venous thromboembolism events. A fixed Enoxaparin dosing regimen is the standard of care for chemoprophylaxis in most institutions; however, breakthrough venous thromboembolism events are still reported. We aimed to systematically review the literature to determine the ability of various Enoxaparin dosing regimens to achieve adequate prophylactic anti-Xa levels for venous thromboembolism prevention in hospitalized general surgery patients. Additionally, we aimed to assess the correlation between subprophylactic anti-Xa levels and the development of clinically significant venous thromboembolism events. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted using major databases from January 1, 1993, to February 17, 2023. Two independent researchers screened titles and abstracts, followed by a full-text review. Articles were included if Enoxaparin dosing regimens were evaluated by anti-Xa levels. Exclusion criteria included systematic reviews, pediatric population, nongeneral surgery (defined as trauma, orthopedics, plastics, and neurosurgery), and non-Enoxaparin chemoprophylaxis. The primary outcome was peak Anti-Xa level measured at steady state concentration. The risk of bias was assessed using the Risk of Bias in Nonrandomized studies-of Intervention tool. RESULTS: A total of 6,760 articles were extracted, of which 19 were included in the scoping review. Nine studies included bariatric patients, whereas 5 studies explored abdominal surgical oncology patients. Three studies assessed thoracic surgery patients, and 2 studies included patients undergoing "general surgery" procedures. A total of 1,502 patients were included. The mean age was 47 years, and 38% were males. The percentages of patients reaching adequate prophylactic anti-Xa levels were 39%, 61%, 15%, 50%, and 78% across the 40 mg daily, 40 mg twice daily, 30 mg twice daily, and weight-tiered, and body mass index-based groups, respectively. The overall risk of bias was low to moderate. CONCLUSION: Fixed Enoxaparin dosing regimens are not correlated with adequate anti-Xa levels in general surgery patients. Additional research is warranted to assess the efficacy of dosing regimens based on novel physiologic parameters (such as estimated blood volume).

Anti-Factor Xa Monitoring of Enoxaparin Thromboembolism Prophylaxis in Emergency General Surgery Patients.

BACKGROUND: Rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE) remain high in emergency general surgery (EGS) patients despite chemical VTE prophylaxis. Emerging literature supports anti-factor Xa (AFXa) monitoring for patients on enoxaparin (LMWH), although a significant knowledge gap remains regarding the optimal dosing and monitoring in EGS patients. We hypothesize that standard dose VTE prophylaxis regimens provide inadequate VTE prophylaxis in EGS patients. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cohort study of all adult EGS patients at a single institution between August 2021 and February 2022 receiving standard dose LMWH for VTE prophylaxis was performed. AFXa levels were obtained 4 hours after the third dose of enoxaparin with a target range of 0.3 to 0.5 IU/mL. Adjustment to dosing and repeat AFXa measurement after the adjusted third dose was obtained. RESULTS: A total of 81 patients underwent AFXa monitoring, the majority (75%) of whom were started on 40 mg LMWH daily. Initial peak AFXa measurement was low in 87.7% of patients (mean 0.16 IU/mL). Of patients who had an initial low AFXa, remained admitted, and underwent dosing adjustment and AFXa reassessment (27%), the majority were adjusted to either 30 or 40 mg of LMWH twice daily (23.7% and 55%, respectively), with 82% of patients remaining low. There were no significant differences in demographics or BMI between those with low vs adequate AFXa levels at either initial or subsequent measurement. CONCLUSIONS: Standard LMWH dosing provides inadequate AFXa inhibition for adequate VTE prophylaxis. These findings highlight the importance of ongoing AFXa monitoring and the need to establish clinical protocols to improve VTE prophylaxis in EGS patients.

Mechanical Ventilation Does Not Predict Pneumothorax Observation Failure in the Severely Injured.

BACKGROUND: Observative management of small traumatic pneumothoraces (PTX) has been shown to decrease chest tube utilization in non-mechanically ventilated patients without compromising outcomes. This approach could be used in mechanically ventilated (MV) patients, though many feel these patients are at increased risk of observation failure. METHODS: A single center retrospective study of all adults undergoing observation of a computed tomography (CT) diagnosed PTX from 2015-2019. Patients with chest tube placement within 4-hours of arrival, concurrent hemothorax, or death within 24-hours were excluded. Observation failure was defined as chest tube placement. RESULTS: Of 340 patients, 64 were on MV. The groups were of similar age, BMI, underlying pulmonary comorbidities, and PTX size (10.1 mm vs 8.8 mm, P = .20). The MV group was more severely injured (ISS [25+] [60.9% vs 11.2%, P < .001]). There was no difference in observation failure rates by MV status overall (6.3% vs 5.1%, P = .75) or by PTX size (<15 mm [5% vs 2.2%, P = .37], <20 mm [4.8% vs 3.1%, P = .45], <25 mm [4.8% vs 4.1%, P = .73], <30 mm [4.8% vs 4.1%, P = .73], <35 mm [4.8% vs 4.7%, P = 1.00]). MV was not an independent predictor of observation failure on multivariable analysis (OR .64, 95% CI .18-2.20), though PTX size was (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.17). When comparing those who failed vs those who did not, the only difference was PTX size (9.34 mm vs 19.41 mm, P < .001). CONCLUSION: MV is not an independent predictor of PTX observation failure. While PTX size appears to play a role, further studies are needed to outline safe parameters for observation in those undergoing MV.

Predicting outcomes after traumatic brain injury: A novel hospital prediction model for a patient reported outcome.

BACKGROUND: Estimation of long-term quality of life in patients sustaining Traumatic brain injuries is a difficult but important task during the early hospitalization. There are very limited tools to assess these outcomes, therefore we aimed to develop a predictive model for quality-of-life that could be used in hospitalized adults with TBIs. METHODS: The TRACK-TBI dataset was used to identify adult patients with TBI from 2014 to 2018. Multiple variables were assessed to predict favorable versus unfavorable scores on the Quality of Life after Brain Injury-Overall Scale (QOLIBRI-OS). RESULTS: We included 1549 subjects. 57% had a favorable outcome, and were more likely to have private insurance, higher GCS scores, and fewer comorbidities. A model (TBI-PRO) for 3, 6, and 12-month QOLIBRI score was created. The AUROCs for predicting 3, 6 and 12-month favorable QOLIBRI scores were 0.81, 0.79, and 0.76, respectively. CONCLUSION: The TBI-PRO model adequately estimates long-term outcomes in patients with TBI.

What Drives High Costs of Cytoreductive Surgery and HIPEC: Patient, Provider or Tumor?

INTRODUCTION: Cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) is utilized for peritoneal malignancies and is associated with significant resource use. To address potentially modifiable factors contributing to excessive cost, we sought to determine predictors of high cost of care for patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC. METHODS: An institutional CRS/HIPEC database was queried for adult patients from 2014 to 2018. Cost was defined as cost for the index hospitalization, and high-cost cases were defined as > 75th percentile for cost. Bivariate analyses for cost were performed, and all significant tumor, patient, and surgeon-specific variables were entered in a linear regression for cost. A separate linear regression was performed for length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: In total, 59 patients underwent 61 CRS/HIPEC procedures. The median direct variable cost was $20,509 (16,395-25,240). Median length of stay (LOS) was 8 (7-11.5) days and ICU stay was 1 (1-1.5) day. LOS, length of ICU stay and operative time were predictive of cost. Factors associated with increased LOS were Clavien-Dindo grade II complications and ostomy creation. Patient-related factors, including age and BMI, tumor-related factors, such as PCI and CCR, and surgeon were not predictive of cost nor LOS. DISCUSSION: Our results, the first to identify predictors of high cost of CRS/HIPEC-related care in the US, reveal cost was largely related to length and intensity of care. In turn, these drivers were influenced by complications and operative factors. Future work will focus on identifying an appropriate ERAS protocol following CRS/HIPEC and selection of those patients that may avoid routine ICU admission.

Natural History and Treatment Trends in Pancreatic Cancer Subtypes.

BACKGROUND: While pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is the most common form of pancreatic cancer, many other histologic forms of pancreatic cancer are also recognized. These histologic variants portray unique characteristics in terms of patient demographics, tumor behavior, survival, and responsiveness to treatments. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients who underwent surgical resection of the pancreas for non-metastatic, invasive pancreatic cancer between 2004 and 2014 were selected from the National Cancer Data Base and categorized by histologic variant according to WHO classification guidelines. Patient demographics, tumor variables, treatment characteristics, and survival were compared between histologic groups and subgroups. RESULTS: A total of 57,804 patients met inclusion and exclusion criteria and were grouped into eight major histologic categories. Survival analysis by the histologic group showed median overall survival of 20.2 months for ductal adenocarcinoma, 20.5 months for squamous cell carcinoma, 26.8 months for mixed acinar-neuroendocrine carcinomas, 52.6 months for cystic mucinous neoplasms with an associated invasive carcinoma, 67.5 months for acinar cell carcinoma, and 69.3 months for mesenchymal tumors. Median survival was not reached for neuroendocrine tumors and solid-pseudopapillary neoplasms, with 5-year overall survival rates of 84% and 97% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Rare subtypes of pancreatic cancer present unique clinicopathologic characteristics and display distinct tumor biologies. This study presents data on demographic, prognostic, treatment, and survival outcomes between rare forms of pancreatic neoplasms in order to aid understanding of the natural history and behavior of these neoplasms, with the hope of serving as a reference in clinical decision-making and ability to provide accurate prognostic information to patients.

Preoperative urinary tract infection increases postoperative morbidity.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative urinary tract infection (UTI) may be associated with surgical site infections secondary to hematogenous spread of bacteria. The association between preoperative UTI and postoperative complications has not been evaluated in general surgery populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients undergoing elective general surgery procedures from 2011 to 2013 were selected from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Patients with UTI present at the time of surgery (PATOS) were identified as cases. Patients without UTI PATOS were selected and matched 2:1 on age, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, and Current Procedural Terminology code with identified cases. Univariate and multivariate analyses compared postoperative outcomes between the two groups. RESULTS: A total of 434,802 patients were identified for inclusion in the study, with an overall preoperative UTI rate of 0.1% (n = 363). On univariate analysis, the UTI group had a significantly higher incidence of overall complications, infectious complications, and noninfectious complications. Multivariate analysis confirmed that patients with UTI had a higher risk of postoperative complications compared with those without preoperative UTI (odds ratio [OR] 1.551, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.071-2.247). This relationship persisted for both infectious (OR 1.515, 95% CI 1.000-2.296) and noninfectious (OR 1.683, 95% CI 1.012-2.799) complications. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated an increased rate of 30-d complications in elective general surgery patients with UTI PATOS. These findings suggest that diligent efforts to diagnose and treat UTI before surgery may result in improved outcomes. Furthermore, surgeons should consider postponing elective procedures to allow for the complete resolution of preoperative UTI.