Assessing the impact of travel restrictions on international spread of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic.

The quick spread of an Ebola outbreak in West Africa has led a number of countries and airline companies to issue travel bans to the affected areas. Considering data up to 31 Aug 2014, we assess the impact of the resulting traffic reductions with detailed numerical simulations of the international spread of the epidemic. Traffic reductions are shown to delay by only a few weeks the risk that the outbreak extends to new countries.

Local and regional spread of chikungunya fever in the Americas.

Chikungunya fever (CHIKV), a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, is currently affecting several areas in the Caribbean. The vector is found in the Americas from southern Florida to Brazil, and the Caribbean is a highly connected region in terms of population movements. There is therefore a significant risk for the epidemic to quickly expand to a wide area in the Americas. Here, we describe the spread of CHIKV in the first three areas to report cases and between areas in the region. Local transmission of CHIKV in the Caribbean is very effective, the mean number of cases generated by a human case ranging from two to four. There is a strong spatial signature in the regional epidemic, with the risk of transmission between areas estimated to be inversely proportional to the distance rather than driven by air transportation. So far, this simple distance-based model has successfully predicted observed patterns of spread. The spatial structure allows ranking areas according to their risk of invasion. This characterisation may help national and international agencies to optimise resource allocation for monitoring and control and encourage areas with elevated risks to act.

Assessment of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in the Middle East and risk of international spread using a novel maximum likelihood analysis approach.

The emergence of the novel Middle East (ME) respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has raised global public health concerns regarding the current situation and its future evolution. Here we propose an integrative maximum likelihood analysis of both cluster data in the ME and importations in a set of European countries to assess the transmission scenario and incidence of sporadic infections. Our approach is based on a spatial-transmission model integrating mobility data worldwide and allows for variations in the zoonotic/environmental transmission and under-ascertainment. Maximum likelihood estimates for the ME, considering outbreak data up to 31 August 2013, indicate the occurrence of a subcritical epidemic with a reproductive number R of 0.50 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.30-0.77) associated with a daily rate of sporadic introductions psp of 0.28 (95% CI: 0.12-0.85). Infections in the ME appear to be mainly dominated by zoonotic/environmental transmissions, with possible under-ascertainment (ratio of estimated to observed (0.116) sporadic cases equal to 2.41, 95% CI: 1.03-7.32). No time evolution of the situation emerges. Analyses of flight passenger data from ME countries indicate areas at high risk of importation. While dismissing an immediate threat for global health security, this analysis provides a baseline scenario for future reference and updates, suggests reinforced surveillance to limit under-ascertainment, and calls for alertness in high importation risk areas worldwide.

Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere.

The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available early October. Several studies point to the possibility of an anticipated pandemic peak that could undermine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Here, we use a structured global epidemic and mobility metapopulation model to assess the effectiveness of massive vaccination campaigns for the Fall/Winter 2009. Mitigation effects are explored depending on the interplay between the predicted pandemic evolution and the expected delivery of vaccines. The model is calibrated using recent estimates on the transmissibility of the new A(H1N1) influenza. Results show that if additional intervention strategies were not used to delay the time of pandemic peak, vaccination may not be able to considerably reduce the cumulative number of cases, even when the mass vaccination campaign is started as early as mid-October. Prioritized vaccination would be crucial in slowing down the pandemic evolution and reducing its burden.

A case-control auditory evaluation of patients treated with artemisinin derivatives for multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

The artemisinin derivatives are now used widely in areas with multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria such as Southeast Asia, but concerns remain over their potential for neurotoxicity. Mice, rats, dogs, and monkeys treated with high doses of intramuscular artemether or arteether develop an unusual pattern of focal damage to brain stem nuclei (particularly those involved in auditory processing). To investigate whether a similar toxic effect occurs in patients treated with these compounds, clinical neurologic evaluation, audiometry and early latency auditory evoked responses were measured in a single-blind comparison of 79 patients who had been treated with > or =2 courses of oral artemether or artesunate within the previous 3 years, and 79 age- and sex-matched controls living in a malaria-endemic area on the northwestern border of Thailand. There were no consistent differences in any of these test results between the cases and controls. This study failed to detect any evidence of significant neurotoxicity in patients treated previously with oral artemether or artesunate for acute malaria.

A high voltage, constant current stimulator for electrocutaneous stimulation through small electrodes.

A high-voltage stimulator has been designed to allow transcutaneous stimulation of tactile fibers of the fingertip. The stimulator's output stage was based upon an improved Howland current pump topology, modified to allow high load impedances and small currents. The compliance voltage of approximately 800 V is achieved using commercially available high-voltage operational amplifiers. The output current accuracy is better than +/- 5% over the range of 1 to 25 mA for 30 microseconds or longer pulses. The rise time for square pulses is less than 1 microsecond. High-voltage, common-mode, latch-up power supply problems and solutions are discussed. The stimulator's input stage is optically coupled to the controlling computer and complies with applicable safety standards for use in a hospital environment. The design presented here is for monophasic stimulation only, but could be modified for biphasic stimulation.