Decadal decrease in Los Angeles methane emissions is much smaller than bottom-up estimates.

Methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, has a short atmospheric lifetime ( ~ 12 years), so that emissions reductions will have a rapid impact on climate forcing. In megacities such as Los Angeles (LA), natural gas (NG) leakage is the primary atmospheric methane source. The magnitudes and trends of fugitive NG emissions are largely unknown and need to be quantified to verify compliance with emission reduction targets. Here we use atmospheric remote sensing data to show that, in contrast to the observed global increase in methane emissions, LA area emissions decreased during 2011-2020 at a mean rate of (-1.57 ± 0.41) %/yr. However, the NG utility calculations indicate a much larger negative emissions trend of -5.8 %/yr. The large difference between top-down and bottom-up trends reflects the uncertainties in estimating the achieved emissions reductions. Actions taken in LA can be a blueprint for COP28 and future efforts to reduce methane emissions.

Source Apportionment of Ambient Methane Enhancements in Los Angeles, California, To Evaluate Emission Inventory Estimates.

Rapid increase in atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios over the past century is attributable to the intensification of human activities. Information on spatially explicit source contributions is needed to develop efficient and cost-effective CH4 emission reduction and mitigation strategies to addresses near-term climate change. This study collected long-term ambient CH4 measurements at Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) in Los Angeles, California, to estimate the annual CH4 emissions from the portion of Los Angeles County that is within the South Coast Air Basin (SCLA). The measurement-based CH4 emission estimates for SCLA ranged from 3.95 to 4.89 million metric tons (MMT) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per year between 2012 and 2016. Source apportionment of CH4, CO, CO2, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measurements were used to evaluate source categories that contributed to ambient CH4 mixing ratio enhancements (ΔCH4) at SCLA between 2014 and 2016. Results suggested ΔCH4 contributions of 56-79% from natural gas sources, 7-31% from landfills, and 4-15% from transportation sources. The SCLA-specific CH4 emission estimate made using a research grade gridded CH4 emission inventory suggested contributions of 47% from natural gas sources and 50% from landfills. Subsequent airborne measurements determined that CH4 emissions from two major CH4 sources in SCLA were significantly smaller in magnitude than previously thought. This study highlights the importance of studying the variabilities of CH4 emissions across California for policy makers and stakeholders alike.

Carbon dioxide and methane measurements from the Los Angeles Megacity Carbon Project - Part 1: calibration, urban enhancements, and uncertainty estimates.

We report continuous surface observations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from the Los Angeles (LA) Megacity Carbon Project during 2015. We devised a calibration strategy, methods for selection of background air masses, calculation of urban enhancements, and a detailed algorithm for estimating uncertainties in urban-scale CO2 and CH4 measurements. These methods are essential for understanding carbon fluxes from the LA megacity and other complex urban environments globally. We estimate background mole fractions entering LA using observations from four "extra-urban" sites including two "marine" sites located south of LA in La Jolla (LJO) and offshore on San Clemente Island (SCI), one "continental" site located in Victorville (VIC), in the high desert northeast of LA, and one "continental/mid-troposphere" site located on Mount Wilson (MWO) in the San Gabriel Mountains. We find that a local marine background can be established to within ~1 ppm CO2 and ~10 ppb CH4 using these local measurement sites. Overall, atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels are highly variable across Los Angeles. "Urban" and "suburban" sites show moderate to large CO2 and CH4 enhancements relative to a marine background estimate. The USC (University of Southern California) site near downtown LA exhibits median hourly enhancements of ~20 ppm CO2 and ~150 ppb CH4 during 2015 as well as ~15 ppm CO2 and ~80 ppb CH4 during mid-afternoon hours (12:00-16:00 LT, local time), which is the typical period of focus for flux inversions. The estimated measurement uncertainty is typically better than 0.1 ppm CO2 and 1 ppb CH4 based on the repeated standard gas measurements from the LA sites during the last 2 years, similar to Andrews et al. (2014). The largest component of the measurement uncertainty is due to the single-point calibration method; however, the uncertainty in the background mole fraction is much larger than the measurement uncertainty. The background uncertainty for the marine background estimate is ~10 and ~15 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement near downtown LA for CO2 and CH4, respectively. Overall, analytical and background uncertainties are small relative to the local CO2 and CH4 enhancements; however, our results suggest that reducing the uncertainty to less than 5 % of the median mid-afternoon enhancement will require detailed assessment of the impact of meteorology on background conditions.

Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O(3)) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O(3) chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite suggest an ∼7-10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6-7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O(3) SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O(3) further.

Atmospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) abundances from ground-based ultraviolet solar spectra: an improved retrieval method.

The Fourier Transform Ultraviolet Spectrometer (FTUVS) instrument has recorded a long-term data record of the atmospheric column abundance of the hydroxyl radical (OH) using the technique of high resolution solar absorption spectroscopy. We report new efforts in improving the precision of the OH measurements in order to better model the diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variability of odd hydrogen (HO(x)) chemistry in the stratosphere, which, in turn, will improve our understanding of ozone chemistry and its long-term changes. Until the present, the retrieval method has used a single strong OH absorption line P(1)(1) in the near-ultraviolet at 32,341 cm(-1). We describe a new method that uses an average based on spectral fits to multiple lines weighted by line strength and fitting precision. We have also made a number of improvements in the ability to fit a model to the spectral feature, which substantially reduces the scatter in the measurements of OH abundances.