Predicted impact of banning nonessential, energy-dense food and beverages in schools in Mexico: A microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood obesity is a growing concern worldwide. School-based interventions have been proposed as effective means to improve nutritional knowledge and prevent obesity. In 2023, Mexico approved a reform to the General Education Law to strengthen the ban of sales and advertising of nonessential energy-dense food and beverages (NEDFBs) in schools and surroundings. We aimed to predict the expected one-year change in total caloric intake and obesity prevalence by introducing the ban of NEDFBs sales in schools, among school-aged children and adolescents (6 to 17 years old) in Mexico. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used age-specific equations to predict baseline fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) and then estimated total energy intake (TEI) per day. The TEI after the intervention was estimated under 4 scenarios: (1) using national data to inform the intervention effect; (2) varying law compliance; (3) using meta-analytic data to inform the intervention effect size on calories; and (4) using national data to inform the intervention effect by sex and socioeconomic status (SES). We used Hall's microsimulation model to estimate the potential impact on body weight and obesity prevalence of children and adolescents 1 year after implementing the intervention in Mexican schools. We found that children could reduce their daily energy intake by 33 kcal/day/person (uncertainty interval, UI, [25, 42] kcal/day/person), reducing on average 0.8 kg/person (UI [0.6, 1.0] kg/person) and 1.5 percentage points (pp) in obesity (UI [1.1, 1.9] pp) 1 year after implementing the law. We showed that compliance will be key to the success of this intervention: considering a 50% compliance the intervention effect could reduce 0.4 kg/person (UI [0.3, 0.5] kg/person). Our sensitivity analysis showed that the ban could reduce body weight by 1.3 kg/person (UI [0.8, 1.8] kg/person) and up to 5.4 kg/person (UI [3.4, 7.5] kg/person) in the best-case scenario. Study limitations include assuming that obesity and the contribution of NEDFBs consumed at school remain constant over time, assuming full compliance, and not considering the potential effect of banning NEDFBs in stores near schools. CONCLUSIONS: Even in the most conservative scenario, banning sales of NEDFBs in schools is expected to significantly reduce obesity, but achieving high compliance will be key to its success. WHY WAS THIS STUDY DONE?: - School-based interventions have been recognized as effective means to improve nutritional knowledge and prevent obesity-related diseases.- In December 2023, the Chamber of Representatives of Mexico approved an amendment that strengthens and updates the General Education Law (Article 75) and nutritional guidelines to ban the sales and advertising of nonessential energy-dense food and beverages (NEDFBs) in schools. WHAT DID THE RESEARCHERS DO AND FIND?: - We used age-specific equations to predict baseline fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) and total energy intake (TEI) per day.- We used microsimulation modeling to predict body weight and obesity prevalence of children and adolescents 1 year after implementing the intervention in Mexican schools.- Our modeling study suggests that an important impact on obesity prevalence can be expected if the law is implemented and enforced as intended. WHAT DO THESE FINDINGS MEAN?: - If successful, this law could serve as an example beyond Mexico on how to achieve changes in body weight through school food regulation.- An important limitation of our main scenario is that we assumed full compliance of schools with the law, yet lower compliance will reduce its impact. We also did not consider historical trends on obesity or NEDFBs consumed in schools during our 1 year simulation, and we considered only the ban impact inside schools, excluding effects near and outside schools.

A policy approach to identifying food and beverage products that are ultra-processed and high in added salt, sugar and saturated fat in the United States: a cross-sectional analysis of packaged foods.

Background: Governments globally aim to reduce the intake of unhealthy foods. Many policies exist that aim to address foods high in saturated fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) but the identification of ultra-processed foods (UPF) have presented a greater challenge due to the lack of an appropriate policy definition. To support policymakers, we provide approaches that can support governments to identify both HFSS foods and UPFs. Methods: Four approaches combining elements of UPF definitions (i.e., presence of additives) and HFSS definitions were compared attempting to simplify and standardize the identification of less healthy products. Nationally representative food purchase data from NielsenIQ linked with nutrition facts label data were used to examine the mean proportion of product volume purchased by US households to be targeted. Differences between approaches were examined using Student t test; Bonferroni adjusted P value < 0.0001 was considered significant. Findings: In 2020, 50% of 33,054,687 products purchased by US households were considered UPFs (65% of foods and 38% of beverages) and 43% HFSS (65% of foods and 26% of beverages), however there was not 100% agreement between the two definitions (P < 0.0001). By starting with HFSS criteria and adding elements of UPF (colors and flavors), we were able to provide a method with 100% agreement between the identification of UPFs and HFSS products. Interpretation: Results demonstrated how combining HFSS criteria with UPF criteria can be used to identify less healthy foods and ensure policymakers have both a simple and accurate method to target products for policy intervention. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Global Food Research Program of UNC-Chapel Hill provided funds.

Comprehensive mandatory policies are needed to fully protect all children from unhealthy food marketing.

The World Health Organization (WHO) have released a new guideline, "Policies to protect children from the harmful impact of food marketing" [1] which recommends the development of comprehensive laws to reduce children's exposure to unhealthy food marketing. This new guideline extends previous recommendations [2] to limit the adverse effects of unhealthy food marketing on the health of the world's children. We consider here whether these new recommendations go far enough.

Evolution of food and beverage prices after the front-of-package labelling regulations in Chile.

INTRODUCTION: This study assesses the impact on prices of the 2016 Chilean comprehensive food policy package, centred around front-of-package warning labels for food and beverages high in saturated fats, sugars, calories and/or salt, on food and beverage prices, labelled or not. METHODS: Data from Kantar WorldPanel Chile, from January 2014 to December 2017, were used. The methodology implemented was interrupted time series analyses with a control group on Laspeyres Price Indices on labelled food and beverage products. RESULTS: After the regulations were implemented, prices among different categories of products (eg, high-in; reformulated but still high-in; reformulated and not high-in; not high-in) did not change with regulations relative to the control group. Specific price indices (relative to the control group) for households from different socioeconomic strata remained unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Even where reformulation was extensive, we found no evidence that it was associated with price changes, at least during Chile's first year and a half of regulation implementation.

Associations of 5-year changes in alcoholic beverage intake with 5-year changes in waist circumference and BMI in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to shed light on contradictory associations of alcohol intake with waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI) by examining 5-yr changes in alcohol intake in relation to 5-yr WC and BMI changes. METHODS: This prospective study included 4,355 participants (1,974 men and 2,381 women) enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study at baseline (1985-1986) and followed over 25 years (2010-2011). Longitudinal random effects linear regression models were used to test whether changes in drinking (defined categorically) as starting to drink, increasing, decreasing, stable drinking or stopping drinking (versus stable non-drinking) over a series of 5-yr periods were associated with corresponding 5-yr WC and BMI changes. Associations with 5-yr changes (defined categorically as starting, stable or stopping) in drinking level (i.e., light/moderate and excessive) and 5-yr changes (defined categorically as increasing, no change, or decreasing) by beverage type (i.e., beer, wine and liquor/mixed drinks) were also examined. RESULTS: In men, compared to stable non-drinking, decreasing total alcohol intake was associated with lower 5-yr WC (ß:-0.62 cm; 95% CI: -1.09, -0.14 cm) and BMI gains (ß:-0.20 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.30, -0.03 kg/m2) and stopping excessive drinking was associated with lower 5-yr WC gains (ß:-0.77 cm; 95% CI: -1.51, -0.03 cm). In women, compared to those with stable non-drinking habits, starting light/moderate drinking was associated with lower 5-yr WC (ß: -0.78 cm; 95% CI: -1.29, -0.26 cm) and BMI gains (ß:-0.42 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.64, -0.20 kg/m2). Increasing wine intake was associated with a lower 5-yr BMI gain (ß:-0.27 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.51, -0.03 kg/m2). Decreasing liquor/mixed drink (ß:-0.33 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.56, -0.09 kg/m2) intake was associated with lower 5-yr WC (ß:-0.88 cm; 95% CI: -1.43, -0.34 cm) and BMI (ß:-0.33 kg/m2; 95% CI: -0.56, -0.09 kg/m2) gains. CONCLUSIONS: Associations of alcohol intake with obesity measures are complex. In women, wine and liquor/mixed drink intakes had contrasting associations with WC and BMI change. In men, decreasing weekly alcoholic beverage intake with an emphasis on stopping excessive consumption may be beneficial in managing WC and BMI gains.

Nutritional Quality of Pre-Packaged Foods in China under Various Nutrient Profile Models.

This study used various nutrient profile models (NPMs) to evaluate the nutritional quality of pre-packaged foods in China to inform future food policy development. Nutrition data for pre-packaged foods were collected through FoodSwitch China in 2017-2020. The analyses included 73,885 pre-packaged foods, including 8236 beverages and 65,649 foods. Processed foods (PFs) and ultra-processed foods (UPFs) accounted for 8222 (11.4%) and 47,003 (63.6%) of all products, respectively. Among the 55,425 PFs and UPFs, the overall proportion of products with an excessive quantity of at least one negative nutrient was 86.0% according to the Chilean NPM (2019), 83.3% for the Pan American Health Organization NPM (PAHO NPM), and 90.6% for the Western Pacific Region NPM for protecting children from food marketing (WPHO NPM), respectively. In all NPMs, 70.4% of PFs and UPFs were identified as containing an excessive quantity of at least one negative nutrient, with higher proportions of UPFs compared to PFs. Food groups exceeding nutrient thresholds in most NPMs included snack foods, meat and meat products, bread and bakery products, non-alcoholic beverages, confectionery, and convenience foods. In conclusion, PFs and UPFs accounted for three-fourths of pre-packaged foods in China, and the majority of PFs and UPFs exceeded the threshold for at least one negative nutrient under all three NPMs. Given the need to prevent obesity and other diet-related chronic diseases, efforts are warranted to improve the healthiness of foods in China through evidence-based food policy.

Front-of-Pack Labeling in Chile: Effects on Employment, Real Wages, and Firms' Profits after Three Years of Its Implementation.

This study evaluates the impact of Chile's innovative law on Food Labeling and Advertising, enacted in June 2016, on employment and real wages and profit margins for the food and beverage manufacturing sectors in the 2016-2019 period, using unique company-specific monthly data from Chile's tax collection agency (measuring aggregate employment, real wages, average size of firms, and gross profit margins of the food and beverage manufacturing sector). Interrupted-time series analyses (ITSA) on administrative data from tax-paying firms was used and compared to synthetic control groups of sectors not affected by the regulations. ITSA results show no effect on aggregate employment nor on the average size of the firms, while they show negligible effects on real wages and gross margin of profits (as proportion of total sales), after the first two stages of the implementation (36 months), despite significant decreases in consumption in certain categories (sugar-sweetened beverages, breakfast cereals, etc.). Despite the large declines found in purchases of unhealthy foods, employment did not change and impacts on other economic outcomes were small. Though Chile's law, is peculiar there is no reason to believe that if similar regulations were adopted elsewhere, they would have different results.

Changes in nonnutritive sweetener intake in a cohort of preschoolers after the implementation of Chile's Law of Food Labelling and Advertising.

BACKGROUND: The first phase of Chile's Law of Food Labelling and Advertising showed important declines in the sugar content of packaged foods, but it is unknown whether the law led to an increase in nonnutritive sweetener (NNS) intake, particularly among preschool children. OBJECTIVES: Estimate the changes in preschoolers' NNS intake after the first phase of the Chilean law. METHODS: We used 24-h dietary recalls collected in 2016 (pre-law) and 2017 (post-law) from a cohort of preschoolers (n = 875). The primary caretaker was the respondent of the recalls. Information on NNS was obtained from nutrition facts panels collected annually and linked to dietary data. We used logistic regression to estimate the changes in the proportion of preschoolers who consume NNS and two-part models to estimate the changes in mean intake. We determined the percentage of children that surpassed the acceptable daily intake (ADI) of each NNS using the National Cancer Institute method. RESULTS: The proportion of consumers of at least one NNS increased from 77.9% to 92.0% (p-value < 0.01). The mean intake increased for sucralose, aspartame, acesulfame-K and steviol glycosides (+20.3, +15.1, +6.1 and +3.3 mg/day, respectively). In addition, NNS dietary sources changed for sucralose and steviol glycosides, becoming industrialized juices and dairy beverages more relevant while tabletop NNS became less relevant. None of the children surpassed the ADI. CONCLUSIONS: NNS intake increased in preschoolers after the first phase of a national policy that promoted sugar reformulation.

The Effects of Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviors on Overweight and Obesity among Boys may Differ from those among Girls in China: An Open Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood overweight and obesity are increasing steadily in China, yet few studies have focused on exploring the risk factors associated with sex differences. OBJECTIVES: We tested the hypothesis that the effects of physical activity and sedentary behaviors on overweight and obesity differ between boys and girls. METHODS: We used data collected from 4520 children and adolescents aged 6-18 y from 2004 to 2015 in an ongoing open-cohort study, the China Health and Nutrition Survey, to explore the effects of physical activity and sedentary behaviors on the risk of overweight and obesity in Chinese children and adolescents. We collected detailed information on physical activity and sedentary behavior along with dietary data, and we measured height and weight with standardized methods. We used random-effects logistic regression models to analyze the associations between total physical activity and sedentary behavior and overweight and obesity. RESULTS: The effects of sedentary behaviors and vigorous physical activity were only significant among girls. Vigorous physical activity decreased the risk of overweight and obesity by 63% (OR: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.67) among girls ages 6-11 y and by 54% (OR: 0.46; 95% CI: 0.25, 0.85) among girls ages 12-18 y. High sedentary-hour values increased the risk by 96% (OR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.09, 3.54) among girls ages 12-18 y. None of the effects were significant among boys. CONCLUSION: Low physical activity and high sedentary time increase the risk of overweight and obesity, particularly among adolescent girls. The effects of physical activity and sedentary behaviors on overweight and obesity among boys may differ from those among girls. Sex effects should be taken into consideration when promoting physical activity. Whether this sex difference is a result of high male preferences in China that preclude many activities among boys or other factors requires further study.

The nutrition transition to a stage of high obesity and noncommunicable disease prevalence dominated by ultra-processed foods is not inevitable.

The Nutrition Transition model is presented with the nature and pace of change in key stages varying by location and subpopulations. At present, all high-income and many low- and middle-income countries are in a stage of the transition where nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases including obesity, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension are dominating adult morbidity and mortality and are very high or growing rapidly in prevalence. Some countries still have key subpopulations facing hunger and undernutrition defined by stunting or extreme thinness among adults. We call these double burden of malnutrition countries. All low- and middle-income countries face rapid growth in consumption of ultra-processed food and beverages, but it is not inevitable that these countries will reach the same high levels of consumption seen in high-income countries, with all the negative impacts of this diet on health. With great political and civil society commitment to adoption of policies shown in other countries to have improved dietary choices and social norms around foods, we can arrest and even reverse the rapid shift to diets dominated by a stage of high ultra-processed food intake and increasing prevalence of nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases.

Linking a sugar-sweetened beverage tax with fruit and vegetable subsidies: A simulation analysis of the impact on the poor.

BACKGROUND: US individuals, particularly from low-income subpopulations, have very poor diet quality. Policies encouraging shifts from consuming unhealthy food towards healthy food consumption are needed. OBJECTIVES: We simulate the differential impacts of a national sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and combinations of SSB taxes with fruit and vegetable (FV) subsidies targeted to low-income households on SSB and FV purchases of lower and higher SSB purchasers. METHODS: We considered a 1-cent-per-ounce SSB tax and 2 FV subsidy rates of 30% and 50% and used longitudinal grocery purchase data for 79,044 urban/semiurban US households from 2010-2014 Nielsen Homescan data. We used demand elasticities for lower and higher SSB purchasers, estimated via longitudinal quantile regression, to simulate policies' differential effects. RESULTS: Higher-SSB-purchasing households made larger reductions (per adult equivalent) in SSB purchases than lower SSB purchasers due to the tax (e.g., 4.4 oz/day at SSB purchase percentile 90 compared with 0.5 oz/day at percentile 25; P < 0.05). Our analyses by household income indicated low-income households would make larger reductions than higher-income households at all SSB purchase levels. Targeted FV subsidies induced similar, but nutritionally insignificant, increases in FV purchases of low-income households, regardless of their SSB purchase levels. Subsidies, however, were effective in mitigating the tax burdens. All low-income households experienced a net financial gain when the tax was combined with a 50% FV subsidy, but net gains were smaller among higher SSB purchasers. Further, low-income households with children gained smaller net financial benefits than households without children and incurred net financial losses under a 30% subsidy rate. CONCLUSIONS: SSB taxes can effectively reduce SSB consumption. FV subsidies would increase FV purchases, but nutritionally meaningful increases are limited due to low purchase levels before policy implementation. Expanding taxes beyond SSBs, providing larger FV subsidies, or offering subsidies beyond FVs, particularly for low-income households with children, may be more effective.

Equitability of Individual and Population Interventions to Reduce Obesity: A Modeling Study in Mexico.

INTRODUCTION: Modeling studies have estimated the potential impact and cost effectiveness of interventions to reduce obesity; few have focused on their equity across socioeconomic groups. This study aims to compare the equitability of individual- and population-level interventions to reduce obesity in Mexico. METHODS: Mathematical models were implemented to estimate the expected effect of 2 sugar-sweetened beverage tax scenarios (10% and 20%) and bariatric surgery, pharmacotherapy, and dietary advice as individual interventions to reduce body weight. Individual interventions were modeled using meta-analytical weight change, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the probability of access to healthcare services. For the tax, investigators obtained the baseline consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages from the National Health Survey 2012 and applied the reduction in sales observed in 2016 to estimate the caloric change and weight reduction. Implementation costs and cost per person, per kilogram, and equity were calculated for all interventions over a 1-year timeframe. RESULTS: The 20% tax produced the largest estimated increase (4.50%) in normal BMI prevalence, was the most cost effective, and had the largest and most equitable decrease in obesity across socioeconomic categories. Pharmacotherapy and bariatric surgery produced sizable decreases in obesity prevalence (3.68% and 1.18%), particularly among the middle and high socioeconomic groups, whereas dietary advice had the lowest impact on normal and obese categories. CONCLUSIONS: Individual interventions were effective in reducing obesity; yet, they were more expensive and less equitable than population interventions. Obesity in Mexico affects all socioeconomic groups; available interventions need to be carefully analyzed to tailor a national strategy that is both effective and equitable.

Television viewing and using screens while eating: Associations with dietary intake in children and adolescents.

Screen time has been associated with overweight and obesity, as well as with poorer dietary quality. However, the reasons explaining these associations are not well understood. The objectives of this cross-sectional study were [1] to determine the extent of overall TV viewing as well as using screens while eating (e.g., watching TV or using a tablet), [2] to compare food and nutrient consumption of on-versus off-screen eating occasions, and [3] to determine whether TV viewing and using screens while eating is associated with overall dietary intake. Participants were from the Food Environment Chilean Cohort (n = 938, 4-6 y) and the Growth and Obesity Cohort Study (n = 752, 12-14 y). Dietary data was collected via one 24-h food recall. For each eating occasion, activity performed during consumption (e.g., watching TV, playing sports) was reported. Weekly TV viewing time was collected via an additional survey instrument. Analyses included multivariable linear and logistic regression. Post-hoc pairwise comparisons examined differences in outcomes by tertiles. Our sample reported a median of 9-13.5 weekly hours of TV viewing and 87.5% reported consuming at least one meal or snack per day while using screens. The median kilocalories contributed by eating during screen use was 387 kcal/d in children and 848 kcal/day in adolescents, which represents 34.7% and 42.3% of daily energy intake, respectively. There were no consistent differences when comparing eating occasions consumed on-screen versus off-screen. Higher weekly TV viewing was associated with elements of a less healthy diet including more sweets and desserts in children, and more sugar sweetened beverages in adolescents. A large percentage of Chilean children and adolescents' daily energy is consumed while using screens. In depth, longitudinal work is needed to understand how screen time eating affects diet quality and nutritional status.

The impacts on food purchases and tax revenues of a tax based on Chile's nutrient profiling model.

BACKGROUND: In June 2016, Chile implemented the Law of Food Labelling and Advertising, which included a mandatory front-of-pack warning labels on food and beverages high in added sugar, saturated fat, sodium or energy density, restrictions on child-directed marketing and on the promotion and sales of these products in schools. The regulation does not include taxes although Chile had implemented a tiered tax on SSBs two years before this law was implemented. Therefore, the objective of the study was to simulate the impact of taxing food and beverages based on the cutoff's points for warning labels on purchases and revenues. METHODS: We derived price elasticities using the linear approximation of the almost ideal demand system for six groups of labeled food and beverages (with a warning label based on the regulation) and unlabeled (with no warning label): 1) unlabeled beverages, 2) labeled beverages, 3) unlabeled cereal based products, 4) labeled cereal based products, 5) labeled meat and fish and 6) labeled sweet snacks and desserts. The study used data on household food beverage purchases from the Kantar WorldPanel Chile and Euromonitor sales to adjust the Kantar elasticity results to the national average. We estimated revenues under three tax scenarios for all labeled food and beverages: 10%, 20%, 30% of the final price excluding taxes. RESULTS: Except for labeled fish and meat, all food and beverage groups were price elastic. After accounting for a reduction in consumption after the taxes, economic and population growth, revenues for all groups could reach between 457 million USD to 1.3 billion USD. These results based on the much larger tax base of these labeled "high in added sugar, salt or saturated fat or energy density" foods and beverages is much larger. CONCLUSION: This fiscal package could be implemented in countries with warning labels to enhance health and welfare. The Chilean warning label front-of-the-package system provides an important guide for countries considering policies to reduce diet-related non communicable diseases, including obesity. The fiscal policy impact alone, as shown here for Chile, will be highly impactful in reducing ultra-processed food intake and generating revenues.

The WHO South-East Asia Region Nutrient Profile Model Is Quite Appropriate for India: An Exploration of 31,516 Food Products.

The rapid rise in prevalence of overweight/obesity, as well as high prevalence of type 2 diabetes and other nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases, has led the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) to propose a front-of-package labeling (FOPL) regulation. An effective FOPL system applies a nutrient profile model that identifies foods high in sugar, sodium, and saturated fat that would receive a warning label for consumers to effectively discern between more and less healthy foods. Previous Nutrition Alchemy data collected by the food industry (n = 1306 products) estimated that approximately 96% of foods in India would have at least one warning label based on the FSSAI proposed FOPL. This near universal coverage of warning labels may be inaccurate and misleading. To address this, the current study compared two nutrient profile models, the WHO South-East Asia Region Organization (SEARO) and the Chilean Warning Octagon (CWO) Phase 3, applied to food products available in the Indian market from 2015-2020, collected through Mintel Global New Products Database (n = 10,501 products). Results suggest that 68% of foods and beverages would have at least one ' high-in' level warning label. This study highlights the need to include a more comprehensive sample of food products for assessing the value of warning labels.