RESUMO
The novel and unprecedented Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has negatively impacted most nations of the world within a short period. While its disproportionate social and spatial variability has been established, the reality in Nigeria is yet to be studied. In this paper, advanced spatial statistical techniques were engaged to study the burden of COVID-19 and its risk factors within the first quarter (March-May) of its incidence in Nigeria. The spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) test reveals a significant but marginal cluster of COVID-19 occurrence in Nigeria (I = 0.11, p < 0.05). A model comparison between ordinary least square (OLS) and spatial error model (SER) was explored having checked for multicollinearity in the dataset. The OLS model explained about 64% (adjusted R2 = 0.64) of variation in COVID-19 cases, however with significantly clustered residuals. The SER model performed better with randomly distributed residuals. The significant predictors were population density, international airport, and literacy ratio. Furthermore, this study addressed the spatial planning implications of the ongoing disease outbreak while it advocates transdisciplinary approach to urban planning practices in Nigeria.
RESUMO
The poverty-as-a-vaccine hypothesis came to light following the wide circulation of the controversial British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) World Service post on the internet and social media. It was a theoretical response to what this paper has termed as "the African COVID-19 paradox" or what some have characterised as the "African COVID-19 anomaly" whose thesis is though Africa is the poorest continent in the world, yet it has some of the lowest COVID-19 infection and mortality rates globally. This paradoxical profile apparently contradicts earlier and grim projections by several international bodies on the fate of Africa in this global health crisis. Given this background, we specifically tested the validity of the hypothesis from a geographic perspective within the spatial framework of Africa. Data came from secondary sources. Evidence truly points out a significant negative relationship between COVID-19 and poverty in Africa and thus statistically supports the poverty-as-a-vaccine hypothesis. However, this does not confirm that poverty confers immunity against COVID-19 but it implicitly shows there are complex factors responsible for the anomaly. The main conclusion of the paper is that poverty has no protective immunity against COVID-19 in Africa and is therefore not tenable.
