Analysis of peste des petits ruminants virus spread and the risk of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation.

Aim: This study examines methods to effectively control peste des petits ruminants (PPR), an emerging, highly contagious, transboundary disease that has been designated as a highly dangerous disease by the World Organization for Animal Health. Mathematical modeling was used as a predictive and preventive tool to assess the risk of PPR virus spread in the model area and the probability of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation. Materials and Methods: PPR risk assessment was performed by modeling the pathogen's ecological niche by performing linear regression analysis in the geographic information system ESRI ArcGIS Desktop and maximum entropy methods using MaxEnt software. The territories of Bangladesh, China, and Algeria were used as model countries because they have the highest number of confirmed PPR outbreaks, as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations from 2009 to 2020. The prepared global model of the PPR pathogen's ecological niche was extrapolated onto the territory of the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation to assess the probability of virus introduction in that region. Results: Global model analysis showed that two factors exerted the highest influence on the spread of the PPR pathogen on a global scale: The minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year and the density of roads per unit area, which reflect the overall economic activity within a region. The highest risk of PPR spread was observed in areas with a minimum annual temperature of 16°C and road density of 5000 m/km2 . Conclusion: According to the model, areas with a dominant subtropical climate, where small livestock breeding is performed and where the average daily air temperature is >0°C throughout the year, are at the highest risk of PPR outbreaks. The risk of PPR spreading outside these areas is significantly reduced. Local extrapolation of the PPR ecological niche model demonstrates that the probability of epizootic development does not exceed 3-4% within the territories of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation adjacent to Mongolia and China.

Biochemical and physicochemical indicators of the quality of milk and meat obtained from cows with brucellosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Brucellosis is a disease occurring worldwide. Although it is mainly a cattle disease, it is extremely dangerous for humans. Milk and meat can be contaminated with Brucella. The present study aims to examine the biochemical and physicochemical indicators of the quality of milk and meat obtained from cows positively reacting to brucellosis in comparison with healthy animals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two groups of cattle meat samples (four muscles from different parts of the carcass) were obtained during slaughter at a specialized meat processing plant, and milk samples were examined from healthy animals (10 cows) and from cows positively responding to brucellosis (10 cows). For the milk samples, federal standards (GOST 32915-2014 and GOST 25179-2014) and an atomic absorption spectrometer "Kvant-Z ETA" were used. To evaluate the chemical composition of the meat, the "Clover" apparatus and a tissue grinder (SM-3) were used. RESULTS: In the meat of cows that positively responded to brucellosis, compared with that of healthy animals, the amount of dry matter decreased by 1.2 times, amino ammonia nitrogen by 1.01 times, proteins by 1.2 times, fat by 1.28 times, volatile fatty acids by 1.09 times, tryptophan by 1.25 times, oxyproline by 1.14 times, and protein quality indicator by 1.21 times. CONCLUSION: Despite the severity of brucellosis in cattle, the biochemical and physicochemical indicators of the quality of milk and meat obtained from the healthy and contaminated animals vary, although insignificantly.

Epizootiological study on spatiotemporal clusters of Schmallenberg virus and Lumpy skin diseases: The case of Russia.

AIM: The submitted article attempts to highlight and specify the development of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) and lumpy skin disease (LSD) in cartographic illustrations, as well as to assess the epizootic situation of these diseases in the world, especially in Russia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Outbreaks (samples were collected from clinically healthy as well as suspected animals in infected areas) were confirmed and reported to the World Organization for Animal Health by veterinary officials representing countries in different geographical regions in the world. The reports showed that ELISA and polymerase chain reaction were used to identify SBV and LSD, taking into account number of infected, dead, and susceptible animals in infection foci since their first registration including in Russia. Once conventional statistical population (arrange data according to the main goal by regions, infected, and dead animals) was defined, a model was installed. A geo-information system, QuickMAP, was used to clarify the disease distribution map, and through the illustrations, analysis values were obtained. RESULTS: Using information clusters of some epizootological criteria in various territories has demonstrated 1.302 focus of infection of SBV, of which 63.22% were registered in Europe and 36.78% in Russia. The seroprevalence in Russia was about 7.92% of the examined animals. According to the morbidity structure, the causative agent mainly affected cattle (64.76%), small ruminants (33.68%), and goats (1.56%). A global assessment of the effectiveness of primary epizootic diagnosis by practicing veterinarians was 63.19%, i.e., of 100 suspicion reports of SBV, 63.19 cases are confirmed by laboratory methods. A detailed assessment of the types of animals affected by the disease showed that it was easily diagnosed in sheep (70.38%), cattle (60.4%), and goats (48.57%), respectively. In the wild animal species, a significant prevalence was recorded as- 54.5%. In 2016, 1.209 foci of LSD were registered in the world, with 20.548 heads of cattle affected, while 8.5% of them identified in Russia (in 2017, the figure was 7.5%). Different maps had been generated in QuickMAP. Cluster analysis of the infected livestock in different regions in Russia showed that, in 2016, the Chechen Republic, Krasnodar, and Volgograd regions were, respectively, severely, moderately, and mildly affected. In 2017, the situation changed and Saratov, Orenburg regions, and Bashkiria were severely affected. However, the number of outbreaks decreased by 84.81% by contribution to the previous year. Eritrea, Namibia, and South Africa were leading in a cluster of most infected areas in 2017. CONCLUSION: Infectious diseases do not know borders. The emergence of SBV and LSD in the territory of the Russian Federation has followed the most common general dynamics of transborder diseases without ignoring details. The epizootic risk from wild animals and favorable climatic conditions is critical to fight against transmission of these diseases in Russia.

Assessment of the peste des petits ruminants world epizootic situation and estimate its spreading to Russia.

AIM: This study focuses on the spatial dynamic associated with the spreading of the peste des petits ruminants (PPR) disease for the past decade (from the year 2007 to 2017), assesses the resulting situation in the world, and has an emphasis on Russian advantages been a PPR host. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Outbreaks were confirmed and reported officially by the World Organization for Animal Health (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and polymerase chain reaction were used). Data contain the account number of infected, dead, and all susceptible animals in focus of infection in the period of 2007-2017. Once conventional statistical population was defined, a model was installed. Geo-information system QuickMAP was used to clear up the map disease, and through the @Risk program, we got our forecasting value of future situations (by Monte Carlo method). RESULTS: The spatial study of PPR's occurrence and its spread was mapping according to the incidence of cases and outbreaks. Clusters demonstrated risk levels in the world in the period from 2007 to 2017 year. Based on the epizootological analysis, an assessment of PPR risk and the probability movement of infection in Russia from nearby disadvantaged countries had been carried out. A statistically significant impact of the socioeconomic system on the stationarity index was found equal to 0.63. The PPR risk of spreading could not be ignored. Nevertheless, conducting effective large-scale vaccine companies in a complex of antiepizootic activities against PPR could reduce the risk of spread of the disease up to 91.8%. CONCLUSION: Despite all mentioned facts above, the PPR probability can only be reduced by coordinating work of border veterinary services, as in disadvantaged as in free from this disease country, that is, what makes an effective and complete eradication of the disease could be quite realistic.

Analysis of spatial dynamic of epizootic process of bluetongue and its risk factors.

AIM: The study was undertaken to find out the spatial dynamic occurrence and patterns of the global spread of bluetongue (BT) disease for the period from 1996 to 2016, as well as the assessment of the risk of occurrence and its spread in 2017-2018. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Outbreaks (serum samples were collected from clinically healthy as well as suspected animals in infected points) were confirmed and reported officially by veterinary departments which represent different geographical regions in the world to World Organization for Animal Health. These reports explained that ELISA and polymerase chain reaction were used to identify the BT disease, taking in the account number of infected, dead animals, and focus of BT infection in all susceptible animals from 1996 to 2016. Once conventional statistical population was defined (an observational study), we had classified data as well as possible to answer to our aim, using descriptive statistics methods, including the test of the relationship between different epizootiological indicators. RESULTS: The spatial dynamic study of BT's occurrence and its spread in the world over the two past decades was presented by different epizootic indicators. The given analysis includes assessment and measurement of risk factors. It was built too, regression models, and allowed to put different forecasts on the different epizootic indicators in the years 2017-2018 by the extrapolation method. We had also determined that, in 2017, BT continues to spread with the total expectancy of 3.4 focus of infection (number of diseased animals in a single unfavorable point) and mortality of about 26 %; these rates tend to decrease in 2018. At abused points by BT, up to 78.4% of animals are mixed (more than one type) and in 21.6% - uniform. By this way, the relative risk of the incidence of appearance-abused points in mixed households has 3.64, which might be considered higher for the BT dissemination. Moreover, between the enzootic index and other epizootiological indicators had revealed an inverse correlation, i.e., to an increase in the level of enzootic index among the cattle population would be formed population less sensitive to BT. Cluster analysis was done, which had demonstrated the zoning of risk levels in the world and the occurrence of the disease intensity in the period 1996-2016 years. Then, assess connection degree of the dynamic of BT tension with geographical and socioeconomic conditions background 0.66 and 0.68, respectively. CONCLUSION: It is important to define a variety of BT risk factors and assess their influence on BT occurrence. However, the most important is to define the overlapping coinfluence between them that cause serious losses. To have an out of BT territory needs to make an emphasis of co-influence of risk factors on this zone. Was predicted a continue hits of disease in the next year with weight moderation through one year. Far from statists, to assess the given forecast may have a serious variety, taken in account problems of actual climate change in the world.