A novel method to estimate the response of habitat types to nitrogen deposition.

Increasing nitrogen depositions adversely affect European landscapes, including habitats within the Natura2000 network. Critical loads for nitrogen deposition have been established to quantify the loss of habitat quality. When the nitrogen deposition rises above a habitat-specific critical load, the quality of the focal habitat is expected to be negatively influenced. Here, we investigate how the quality of habitat types is affected beyond the critical load. We calculated response curves for 60 terrestrial habitat types in the Netherlands to the estimated nitrogen deposition (EMEP-data). The curves for habitat types are based on the occurrence of their characteristic plant species in North-Western Europe (plot data from the European Vegetation Archive). The estimated response curves were corrected for soil type, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Evaluation was carried out by expert judgement, and by comparison with gradient deposition field studies. For 39 habitats the response to nitrogen deposition was judged to be reliable by five experts, while out of the 41 habitat types for which field studies were available, 25 showed a good agreement. Some of the curves showed a steep decline in quality and some a more gradual decline with increasing nitrogen deposition. We compared the response curves with both the empirical and modelled critical loads. For 41 curves, we found a decline already starting below the critical load.

Are early post-discharge physician contacts associated with 30-day psychiatric re-hospitalisation? A nationwide claims data based retrospective cohort study in Austria free of immortal time bias.

OBJECTIVES: Cost containment and quality of care considerations have increased research interest in the potential preventability of early re-hospitalisations. Various registry-based retrospective cohort studies on psychiatric re-hospitalisation have focused on the role of early post-discharge service contacts, but either did not consider their time-dependent nature ('immortal time bias') or evaded the issue by analysing late re-hospitalisations. The present study takes care of the immortal time bias in studying early psychiatric re-hospitalisations. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study using nationwide electronic claims data in Austria, 10,689 adults discharged from acute psychiatric inpatient wards were followed up for 30 days. Cox regression analyses were performed with post-discharge psychiatric and general practitioner contacts as time-dependent covariates and time to first psychiatric re-hospitalisation as outcome. RESULTS: Post-discharge ambulatory physician contacts were significantly associated with a decreased psychiatric re-hospitalisation rate (hazard ratio 0.77 [95% CI 0.69; 0.87], p < 0.0001), with similarly strong contributions to this association by general practitioners and psychiatrists. CONCLUSIONS: Despite avoiding the immortal time bias and controlling for several confounders, we suggest to be cautious with a causal interpretation of the identified association, since potentially relevant confounders, such as disease severity, were unavailable in our claims data base.

Association of modifiable factors with the development of physical fitness of Austrian primary school children: A 4-year longitudinal study.

Physical fitness (PF) shows favourable associations with several health indicators in children. Children's PF depends on a variety of non-modifiable (e.g., sex and age) and modifiable factors (e.g., weight status and sports participation). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of modifiable and non-modifiable factors on the development of PF during the 4 years of primary school. A longitudinal study was carried out with 265 children. PF was assessed using the German Motor Performance Test 6-18, whereas modifiable and non-modifiable factors with parent's and children's questionnaires. Total PF z-score increased by 1.4 standard deviations from 1st to 4th year and raw values of subtests improved by an average of about 40%. The variables "parents' physical activity", "never being overweight", "sports club participation", and "playing outside" were positively associated with PF development. The present study highlights that a variety of modifiable factors, both from children and their parents, are significantly associated with the development of children's PF during primary education. Interventions should not only focus on direct actions, such as proposing specific exercise programs, but also aim at increasing parents' awareness of their role model function in endorsing their children's healthy active lifestyle, especially at early ages.

Prediction of plant species occurrence as affected by nitrogen deposition and climate change on a European scale.

Plant species occurrence in Europe is affected by changes in nitrogen deposition and climate. Insight into potential future effects of those changes can be derived by a model approach based on field-based empirical evidence on a continental scale. In this paper, we present a newly developed empirical model PROPS, predicting the occurrence probabilities of plant species in response to a combination of climatic factors, nitrogen deposition and soil properties. Parameters included were temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, soil pH and soil C/N ratio. The PROPS model was fitted to plant species occurrence data of about 800,000 European relevés with estimated values for pH and soil C/N ratio and interpolated climate and modelled N deposition data obtained from the Ensemble meteo data set and EMEP model results, respectively. The model was validated on an independent data set. The test of ten species against field data gave an average Pearson's r-value of 0.79. PROPS was applied to a grassland and a heathland site to evaluate the effect of scenarios for nitrogen deposition and climate change on the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), being the average of the relative probabilities, compared to the maximum probability, of all target species in a habitat. Results for the period 1930-2050 showed that an initial increase and later decrease in nitrogen deposition led to a pronounced decrease in HSI, and with dropping nitrogen deposition to an increase of the HSI. The effect of climate change appeared to be limited, resulting in a slight increase in HSI.

Threshold effects of air pollution and climate change on understory plant communities at forested sites in the eastern United States.

Forest understory plant communities in the eastern United States are often diverse and are potentially sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric inputs of nitrogen caused by air pollution. In recent years, empirical and processed-based mathematical models have been developed to investigate such changes in plant communities. In the study reported here, a robust set of understory vegetation response functions (expressed as version 2 of the Probability of Occurrence of Plant Species model for the United States [US-PROPS v2]) was developed based on observations of forest understory and grassland plant species presence/absence and associated abiotic characteristics derived from spatial datasets. Improvements to the US-PROPS model, relative to version 1, were mostly focused on inclusion of additional input data, development of custom species-level input datasets, and implementation of methods to address uncertainty. We investigated the application of US-PROPS v2 to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, and climate change on forest ecosystems at three forested sites located in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee in the eastern United States. Species-level N and S critical loads (CLs) were determined under ambient deposition at all three modeled sites. The lowest species-level CLs of N deposition at each site were between 2 and 11 kg N/ha/yr. Similarly, the lowest CLs of S deposition, based on the predicted soil pH response, were less than 2 kg S/ha/yr among the three sites. Critical load exceedance was found at all three model sites. The New Hampshire site included the largest percentage of species in exceedance. Simulated warming air temperature typically resulted in lower maximum occurrence probability, which contributed to lower CLs of N and S deposition. The US-PROPS v2 model, together with the PROPS-CLF model to derive CL functions, can be used to develop site-specific CLs for understory plants within broad regions of the United States. This study demonstrates that species-level CLs of N and S deposition are spatially variable according to the climate, light availability, and soil characteristics at a given location. Although the species niche models generally performed well in predicting occurrence probability, there remains uncertainty with respect to the accuracy of reported CLs. As such, the specific CLs reported here should be considered as preliminary estimates.

Statistical analysis of Goal Attainment Scaling endpoints in randomised trials.

Goal Attainment Scaling is an assessment instrument to evaluate interventions on the basis of individual, patient-specific goals. The attainment of these goals is mapped in a pre-specified way to attainment levels on an ordinal scale, which is common to all goals. This approach is patient-centred and allows one to integrate the outcomes of patients with very heterogeneous symptoms. The latter is of particular importance in clinical trials in rare diseases because it enables larger sample sizes by including a broader patient population. In this paper, we focus on the statistical analysis of Goal Attainment Scaling outcomes for the comparison of two treatments in randomised clinical trials. Building on a general statistical model, we investigate the properties of different hypothesis testing approaches. Additionally, we propose a latent variable approach to generate Goal Attainment Scaling data in a simulation study, to assess the impact of model parameters such as the number of goals per patient and their correlation, the choice of discretisation thresholds and the type of design (parallel group or cross-over). Based on our findings, we give recommendations for the design of clinical trials with a Goal Attainment Scaling endpoint. Furthermore, we discuss an application of Goal Attainment Scaling in a clinical trial in mastocytosis.

A proposal for a new PhD level curriculum on quantitative methods for drug development.

This paper provides an overview of "Improving Design, Evaluation and Analysis of early drug development Studies" (IDEAS), a European Commission-funded network bringing together leading academic institutions and small- to large-sized pharmaceutical companies to train a cohort of graduate-level medical statisticians. The network is composed of a diverse mix of public and private sector partners spread across Europe, which will host 14 early-stage researchers for 36 months. IDEAS training activities are composed of a well-rounded mixture of specialist methodological components and generic transferable skills. Particular attention is paid to fostering collaborations between researchers and supervisors, which span academia and the private sector. Within this paper, we review existing medical statistics programmes (MSc and PhD) and highlight the training they provide on skills relevant to drug development. Motivated by this review and our experiences with the IDEAS project, we propose a concept for a joint, harmonised European PhD programme to train statisticians in quantitative methods for drug development.

Advanced Methods for Dose and Regimen Finding During Drug Development: Summary of the EMA/EFPIA Workshop on Dose Finding (London 4-5 December 2014).

Inadequate dose selection for confirmatory trials is currently still one of the most challenging issues in drug development, as illustrated by high rates of late-stage attritions in clinical development and postmarketing commitments required by regulatory institutions. In an effort to shift the current paradigm in dose and regimen selection and highlight the availability and usefulness of well-established and regulatory-acceptable methods, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in collaboration with the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries Association (EFPIA) hosted a multistakeholder workshop on dose finding (London 4-5 December 2014). Some methodologies that could constitute a toolkit for drug developers and regulators were presented. These methods are described in the present report: they include five advanced methods for data analysis (empirical regression models, pharmacometrics models, quantitative systems pharmacology models, MCP-Mod, and model averaging) and three methods for study design optimization (Fisher information matrix (FIM)-based methods, clinical trial simulations, and adaptive studies). Pairwise comparisons were also discussed during the workshop; however, mostly for historical reasons. This paper discusses the added value and limitations of these methods as well as challenges for their implementation. Some applications in different therapeutic areas are also summarized, in line with the discussions at the workshop. There was agreement at the workshop on the fact that selection of dose for phase III is an estimation problem and should not be addressed via hypothesis testing. Dose selection for phase III trials should be informed by well-designed dose-finding studies; however, the specific choice of method(s) will depend on several aspects and it is not possible to recommend a generalized decision tree. There are many valuable methods available, the methods are not mutually exclusive, and they should be used in conjunction to ensure a scientifically rigorous understanding of the dosing rationale.

"Threshold-crossing": A Useful Way to Establish the Counterfactual in Clinical Trials?

A central question in the assessment of benefit/harm of new treatments is: how does the average outcome on the new treatment (the factual) compare to the average outcome had patients received no treatment or a different treatment known to be effective (the counterfactual)? Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the standard for comparing the factual with the counterfactual. Recent developments necessitate and enable a new way of determining the counterfactual for some new medicines. For select situations, we propose a new framework for evidence generation, which we call "threshold-crossing." This framework leverages the wealth of information that is becoming available from completed RCTs and from real world data sources. Relying on formalized procedures, information gleaned from these data is used to estimate the counterfactual, enabling efficacy assessment of new drugs. We propose future (research) activities to enable "threshold-crossing" for carefully selected products and indications in which RCTs are not feasible.

Multi-arm group sequential designs with a simultaneous stopping rule.

Multi-arm group sequential clinical trials are efficient designs to compare multiple treatments to a control. They allow one to test for treatment effects already in interim analyses and can have a lower average sample number than fixed sample designs. Their operating characteristics depend on the stopping rule: We consider simultaneous stopping, where the whole trial is stopped as soon as for any of the arms the null hypothesis of no treatment effect can be rejected, and separate stopping, where only recruitment to arms for which a significant treatment effect could be demonstrated is stopped, but the other arms are continued. For both stopping rules, the family-wise error rate can be controlled by the closed testing procedure applied to group sequential tests of intersection and elementary hypotheses. The group sequential boundaries for the separate stopping rule also control the family-wise error rate if the simultaneous stopping rule is applied. However, we show that for the simultaneous stopping rule, one can apply improved, less conservative stopping boundaries for local tests of elementary hypotheses. We derive corresponding improved Pocock and O'Brien type boundaries as well as optimized boundaries to maximize the power or average sample number and investigate the operating characteristics and small sample properties of the resulting designs. To control the power to reject at least one null hypothesis, the simultaneous stopping rule requires a lower average sample number than the separate stopping rule. This comes at the cost of a lower power to reject all null hypotheses. Some of this loss in power can be regained by applying the improved stopping boundaries for the simultaneous stopping rule. The procedures are illustrated with clinical trials in systemic sclerosis and narcolepsy. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Preoperative abnormalities in serum sodium concentrations are associated with higher in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing major surgery.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal serum sodium concentrations are common in patients presenting for surgery. It remains unclear whether these abnormalities are independent risk factors for postoperative mortality. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of the European Surgical Outcome Study (EuSOS) that provided data describing 46 539 patients undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery. Patients were included in this study if they had a recorded value of preoperative serum sodium within the 28 days immediately before surgery. Data describing preoperative risk factors and serum sodium concentrations were analysed to investigate the relationship with in-hospital mortality using univariate and multivariate logistic regression techniques. RESULTS: Of 35 816 (77.0%) patients from the EuSOS database, 21 943 (61.3%) had normal values of serum sodium (138-142 mmol litre(-1)) before surgery, 8538 (23.8%) had hyponatraemia (serum sodium ≤137 mmol litre(-1)) and 5335 (14.9%) had hypernatraemia (serum sodium ≥143 mmol litre(-1)). After adjustment for potential confounding factors, moderate to severe hypernatraemia (serum sodium concentration ≥150 mmol litre(-1)) was independently associated with mortality [odds ratio 3.4 (95% confidence interval 2.0-6.0), P<0.0001]. Hyponatraemia was not associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative abnormalities in serum sodium concentrations are common, and hypernatraemia is associated with increased mortality after surgery. Abnormalities of serum sodium concentration may be an important biomarker of perioperative risk resulting from co-morbid disease.

[Impact of Self-Reported Fatigue on ACL Injuries in Alpine Skiing: A Sex Comparison]. / Einfluss von subjektiver Ermüdung auf vordere Kreuzbandverletzungen beim alpinen Skifahren: Ein Geschlechtervergleich.

INTRODUCTION: In recreational alpine skiing, about one third of all injuries affect the knee joint, and the most common diagnosis in adult male and female skiers is a tear of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL), which makes up 15 - 21 % of all injuries. General preventive recommendations to reduce the incidence of ski injuries include avoiding fatigue. However, it seems unclear to what extent ACL injuries in male and female recreational skiers are related to perceived fatigue. METHODS: This study was conducted as a prospective questionnaire-based investigation in two Austrian ski injury clinics during the five winter seasons between 2009/2010 and 2013/2014. In total, 588 skiers (67.9 % females) with a mean age of 42.1 ±â€Š10.9 years were interviewed about demographics, skiing ability, skiing behaviour, fitness, day and time of accident, skiing duration and perceived fatigue at the moment of accident. RESULTS: ACL injured males reported a significantly higher skiing ability and fitness level as well as a more risky behaviour on ski slopes compared to females. About one third of males and females injured their ACL within the first day of the ski trip and about 57 % within the first two days, with no sex differences. However, a significantly higher number of female skiers sustained an ACL injury during the first hour of skiing (28 vs. 17 %) as well as during the first two hours of skiing compared to males (52 vs. 44 %). About 81 % of males and females felt no fatigue or just a trace of fatigue in their legs at the time of accident, with no sex differences. CONCLUSION: Based on the findings of this study, fatigue does not seem to be a major risk factor for an ACL injury among male and female recreational skiers.

Preoperative anaemia is associated with poor clinical outcome in non-cardiac surgery patients.

BACKGROUND: Retrospective studies suggest that preoperative anaemia is associated with poor outcomes after surgery. The objective of this study was to describe mortality rates and patterns of intensive care resource use for patients with anaemia undergoing non-cardiac and non-neurological in-patient surgery. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of a large prospective study describing perioperative care and survival in 28 European nations. Patients at least 16 yr old undergoing in-patient surgery during a 7 day period were included in the study. Data were collected for in-hospital mortality, duration of hospital stay, admission to intensive care, and intensive care resource use. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to understand the effects of preoperative haemoglobin (Hb) levels on in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: We included 39 309 patients in the analysis. Preoperative anaemia had a high prevalence in both men and women (31.1% and 26.5%, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed that patients with severe [odds ratio 2.82 (95% confidence interval 2.06-3.85)] or moderate [1.99 (1.67-2.37)] anaemia had higher in-hospital mortality than those with normal preoperative Hb concentrations. Furthermore, hospital length of stay (P<0.001) and postoperative admission to intensive care (P<0.001) were greater in patients with anaemia than in those with normal Hb concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Anaemia is common among non-cardiac and non-neurological surgical patients, and is associated with poor clinical outcome and increased healthcare resource use. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01203605 (ClinicalTrials.gov).

Predicting nitrogen and acidity effects on long-term dynamics of dissolved organic matter.

Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes may relate to changes in sulphur and nitrogen pollution. We integrated existing models of vegetation growth and soil organic matter turnover, acid-base dynamics, and organic matter mobility, to form the 'MADOC' model. After calibrating parameters governing interactions between pH and DOC dissolution using control treatments on two field experiments, MADOC reproduced responses of pH and DOC to additions of acidifying and alkalising solutions. Long-term trends in a range of acid waters were also reproduced. The model suggests that the sustained nature of observed DOC increases can best be explained by a continuously replenishing potentially-dissolved carbon pool, rather than dissolution of a large accumulated store. The simulations informed the development of hypotheses that: DOC increase is related to plant productivity increase as well as to pH change; DOC increases due to nitrogen pollution will become evident, and be sustained, after soil pH has stabilised.

Gatekeepers and enablers: how drug regulators respond to a challenging and changing environment by moving toward a proactive attitude.

This article analyzes the role of regulatory authorities in facilitating innovation in the pharmaceutical sector. We describe how regulators are expanding their role to be not only gatekeepers but also enablers of development. They have already responded to the challenging and changing environment by moving toward a proactive attitude beyond evaluation of products, thereby more actively contributing to their development. Regulators have to continuously evolve their knowledge and standards alongside evolution in science. Creation of supportive regulatory frameworks and multistakeholder interaction will help address unmet regulatory needs.

Simultaneous confidence intervals that are compatible with closed testing in adaptive designs.

We describe a general method for finding a confidence region for a parameter vector that is compatible with the decisions of a two-stage closed test procedure in an adaptive experiment. The closed test procedure is characterized by the fact that rejection or nonrejection of a null hypothesis may depend on the decisions for other hypotheses and the compatible confidence region will, in general, have a complex, nonrectangular shape. We find the smallest cross-product of simultaneous confidence intervals containing the region and provide computational shortcuts for calculating the lower bounds on parameters corresponding to the rejected null hypotheses. We illustrate the method with an adaptive phase II/III clinical trial.

Elevated levels of soluble total and hyperphosphorylated tau result in early behavioral deficits and distinct changes in brain pathology in a new tau transgenic mouse model.

Tauopathies, characterized by hyperphosphorylation and aggregation of tau protein, include frontotemporal dementias and Alzheimer's disease. To explore disease mechanisms and investigate potential treatments, we generated a transgenic (tg) mouse line overexpressing human tau441 with V337M and R406W mutations. Biochemical characterization of these TMHT (Thy-1 mutated human tau) mice showed a significant increase in human transgene expression relative to endogenous murine tau by Western blot and multi-array immunosorbent assay. Only soluble total tau and phosphorylated tau (ptau at residue Thr(181), Ser(199), Thr(231) and Thr(235)), but not insoluble total tau and ptau were increased. Application of the Phospho-Tau SRM assay revealed that phosphorylation at Ser(396) and Ser(404) in soluble tau in the presence of the R406W mutation was at baseline levels in the cortex of TMHT mice compared to non-tg littermates. Histological analyses showed a progressive increase in human tau protein in the amygdala over age, while hippocampal tau levels remained constant from 2 months onwards. Behavioral testing of TMHT mice in the Morris water maze revealed a distinct progressive spatial learning impairment starting already at 5 months of age. Furthermore, we showed that the TMHT mice have early olfactory deficits. These impairments are unbiased by any motor disturbance or lack of motivation. Our results prove that combination of the V337M and R406W mutations of tau accelerates human tau phosphorylation and induces tau pathology as well as cognitive deficits, making this model a suitable tool for basic research on tau as well as in vivo drug testing.

Long-term efficacy and respective potencies of botulinum toxin A and B: a randomized, double-blind study.

BACKGROUND: Mouse units (mU) are used for quantification of the biological activity of botulinum A and B toxin preparations. However, in human tissue, mU values between preparations are not equivalent and lack of clarity concerning efficacy and safety remains with regard to their respective potencies, duration of drug effect and diffusion qualities. OBJECTIVES: To compare short-term and long-term effects of Botox(®) (BOT; Allergan Inc., Irvine, CA, U.S.A.) and Neurobloc(®)/Myobloc(®) (NBC; Solstice Neurosciences Inc., Malvern, PA, U.S.A.) in different doses and dilutions in a human skin model. METHODS: In this prospective randomized double-blind study, 18 healthy volunteers (eight women and 10 men; mean ± SD age 28·4 ± 5·7 years) were injected intradermally with pure saline, BOT and NBC at 10 points in the abdomen in random order, using the BOT/NBC conversion ratio 1 : 75 and different dilution schemes. For an objective outcome, the ninhydrin sweat test was used to compare the anhidrotic areas (action halos). Ten measurements were taken during a time period of 54 weeks. RESULTS: Both preparations showed a peak effect at week 3, with significantly larger anhidrotic areas for NBC. Thereafter, however, the rate of decline was lower in BOT and after week 24, mean BOT areas were larger. The effect of dilution was higher in NBC and the mean dose equivalence conversion ratio (BOT/NBC) was 1 : 29 (area under the curve). Gender effects were seen in both products, with smaller action halos in women. CONCLUSIONS: These results have important implications in clinical routine, especially for autonomic indications.