Applying ecosystem services as a framework to analyze the effects of alternative bio-economy scenarios in Nordic catchments.

The inherently unknown future development of a Nordic bio-economy was studied with four scenarios applied in an ecosystem service assessment framework. This framework couples CORINE land use cover with estimates of 15 final ecosystem services from the CICES 5.1 classification in biophysical and monetary terms. Current land use in two catchments, Lillebæk (83% cropland, area 4.7 km2, Denmark) and Ovre Haldenvassdraget (67% forest, 1006 km2, Norway) was compared with four scenarios for 2050. One scenario focusing on sustainability and environmental awareness led to considerable changes in land use and ecosystem service delivery (more diverse provisioning and higher value of regulating services, but not a higher total economic value), whereas the other three did not deviate markedly from the current scenario. Projected land use scenarios were verified with experts and stakeholder representatives. We conclude that the framework has sufficient resolution to show differences in service delivery among scenarios.

Cultural ecosystem services provided by the Baltic Sea marine environment.

This paper applies the concept of cultural ecosystem services (CES) to reveal the diverse benefits the Baltic Sea provides to human well-being. The study identifies and defines relevant CES for marine and coastal environments and applies them in a survey with 4800 respondents from Germany, Finland and Latvia. The relative importance of various CES was determined by asking respondents to allocate 100 points between CES related to recreation, landscape, inspiration, learning and education, spiritual experiences and belonging, historically and culturally important places and the existence of habitats. The results reveal significant differences in the importance of various CES across countries, users and nonusers of the Baltic Sea, as well as respondents with different human-nature relationships. The results emphasize the importance of considering recreation, landscapes and habitats in conservation policies, while acknowledging that all CES are perceived as important by some population groups.

Citizens' preferences for the conservation of agricultural genetic resources.

Evaluation of conservation policies for agricultural genetic resources (AgGR) requires information on the use and non-use values of plant varieties and animal breeds, as well as on the preferences for in situ and ex situ conservation. We conducted a choice experiment to estimate citizens' willingness to pay (WTP) for AgGR conservation programmes in Finland, and used a latent class model to identify heterogeneity in preferences among respondent groups. The findings indicate that citizens have a high interest in the conservation of native breeds and varieties, but also reveal the presence of preference heterogeneity. Five respondent groups could be identified based on latent class modeling: one implying lexicographic preferences, two with reasoned choices, one indicating uncertain support and one with a preference for the current status of conservation. The results emphasize the importance of in situ conservation of native cattle breeds and plant varieties in developing conservation policies.

Subjective vs. objective measures in the valuation of water quality.

Environmental valuation studies rely on accurate descriptions of the current environmental state and its change. Valuation scenario can be based on objective quality measures described to respondents, on individual subjective perceptions or their combination. If subjective perceptions differ systematically from objective measures, valuation results may be biased. We examine the factors underlying the divergence between perceptions of water quality among summer house owners and the objective water quality classification. We use bivariate probit and multinomial logit models to identify factors that explain both the divergence between perceived and objectively measured water quality and its direction, paying special attention to variables essential in valuation, including those describing the respondent, the summer house and the water body. Some 50% of the respondents perceive water quality differently from the objective quality measures. Several factors are identified behind systematic differences between the perceived and objectively measured quality, in particular the water body type, the level of the objective quality classification and the travel distance to the site. The results emphasize the need to take individual perceptions into account in addition to objective measures in valuation studies, especially if the environmental quality of the study area differs considerably from the average quality in general.

Heterogeneous risk perceptions: the case of poultry meat purchase intentions in Finland.

This study focused on the heterogeneity of consumer reactions, measured through poultry meat purchase intentions, when facing three cases of risk. The heterogeneity was analysed by latent class logistic regression that included all three risk cases. Approximately 60% of the respondents belonged to the group of production risk avoiders, in which the intention to purchase risk food was significantly lower than in the second group of risk neutrals. In addition to socio-demographic variables, the purchase intentions were statistically associated with several attitude-based variables. We highlighted some policy implications of the heterogeneity. Overall, the study demonstrated that risk matters to consumers, not all risk is equal, and consumer types react somewhat differently to different types of risk.

Diversifying meat consumption patterns: consumers' self-reported past behaviour and intentions for change.

This study analysed meat consumption patterns among Finnish consumers, considering both stated past changes and intended future changes. Consumer segments with different patterns of and reasons for change were identified. Latent class analysis revealed six consumer clusters that formed three major cluster blocks. The first block, comprising 48% of the consumers, had established consumption patterns and no intentions to change them. In the second block, with 13% of the consumers, consumption patterns had already shifted towards more vegetables and less meat. The third block, with 39% of the consumers, was identified to be in the middle of a change with a general tendency to reduce the use of meat and increase the use of vegetables. Although the environmental effects of meat and animal welfare issues were important reasons for change in some clusters, healthiness was the most salient stated reason for changing consumption habits.