Epidemiology and health-economic burden of urinary-catheter-associated infection in English NHS hospitals: a probabilistic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) and bloodstream infection (CABSI) are leading causes of healthcare-associated infection in England's National Health Service (NHS), but health-economic evidence to inform investment in prevention is lacking. AIMS: To quantify the health-economic burden and value of prevention of urinary-catheter-associated infection among adult inpatients admitted to NHS trusts in 2016/17. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the annual prevalence of CAUTI and CABSI, and their associated excess health burdens [quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)] and economic costs (£ 2017). Patient-level datasets and literature were synthesized to estimate population structure, model parameters and associated uncertainty. Health and economic benefits of catheter prevention were estimated. Scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. FINDINGS: The model estimated 52,085 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 42,967-61,360] CAUTIs and 7529 (UI 6857-8622) CABSIs, of which 38,084 (UI 30,236-46,541) and 2524 (UI 2319-2956) were hospital-onset infections, respectively. Catheter-associated infections incurred 45,717 (UI 18,115-74,662) excess bed-days, 1467 (UI 1337-1707) deaths and 10,471 (UI 4783-13,499) lost QALYs. Total direct hospital costs were estimated at £54.4M (UI £37.3-77.8M), with an additional £209.4M (UI £95.7-270.0M) in economic value of QALYs lost assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY. Respectively, CABSI accounted for 47% (UI 32-67%) and 97% (UI 93-98%) of direct costs and QALYs lost. Every catheter prevented could save £30 (UI £20-44) in direct hospital costs and £112 (UI £52-146) in QALY value. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital catheter prevention is poised to reap substantial health-economic gains, but community-oriented interventions are needed to target the large burden imposed by community-onset infection.

Intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteraemia and ICU mortality and discharge: addressing time-varying confounding using appropriate methodology.

BACKGROUND: Studies often ignore time-varying confounding or may use inappropriate methodology to adjust for time-varying confounding. AIM: To estimate the effect of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bacteraemia on ICU mortality and discharge using appropriate methodology. METHODS: Marginal structural models with inverse probability weighting were used to estimate the ICU mortality and discharge associated with ICU-acquired bacteraemia among patients who stayed more than two days at the general ICU of a London teaching hospital and remained bacteraemia-free during those first two days. For comparison, the same associations were evaluated with (i) a conventional Cox model, adjusting only for baseline confounders and (ii) a Cox model adjusting for baseline and time-varying confounders. FINDINGS: Using the marginal structural model with inverse probability weighting, bacteraemia was associated with an increase in ICU mortality (cause-specific hazard ratio (CSHR): 1.29; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.63) and a decrease in discharge (CSHR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.45-0.60). By 60 days, among patients still in the ICU after two days and without prior bacteraemia, 8.0% of ICU deaths could be prevented by preventing all ICU-acquired bacteraemia cases. The conventional Cox model adjusting for time-varying confounders gave substantially different results [for ICU mortality, CSHR: 1.08 (95% CI: 0.88-1.32); for discharge, CSHR: 0.68 (95% CI: 0.60-0.77)]. CONCLUSION: In this study, even after adjusting for the timing of acquiring bacteraemia and time-varying confounding using inverse probability weighting for marginal structural models, ICU-acquired bacteraemia was associated with a decreased daily ICU discharge risk and an increased risk of ICU mortality.

Seasonality of urinary tract infections in the United Kingdom in different age groups: longitudinal analysis of The Health Improvement Network (THIN).

Evidence regarding the seasonality of urinary tract infection (UTI) consultations in primary care is conflicting and methodologically poor. To our knowledge, this is the first study to determine whether this seasonality exists in the UK, identify the peak months and describe seasonality by age. The monthly number of UTI consultations (N = 992 803) and nitrofurantoin and trimethoprim prescriptions (N = 1 719 416) during 2008-2015 was extracted from The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a large nationally representative UK dataset of electronic patient records. Negative binomial regression models were fitted to these data to investigate seasonal fluctuations by age group (14-17, 18-24, 25-45, 46-69, 70-84, 85+) and by sex, accounting for a change in the rate of UTI over the study period. A September to November peak in UTI consultation incidence was observed for ages 14-69. This seasonality progressively faded in older age groups and no seasonality was found in individuals aged 85+, in whom UTIs were most common. UTIs were rare in males but followed a similar seasonal pattern than in females. We show strong evidence of an autumnal seasonality for UTIs in individuals under 70 years of age and a lack of seasonality in the very old. These findings should provide helpful information when interpreting surveillance reports and the results of interventions against UTI.

Does appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy modify intensive care unit-acquired Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia mortality and discharge?

BACKGROUND: Conflicting results have been found regarding outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia and the potentially modifying effect of appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy. AIM: To evaluate these associations while adjusting for potential time-varying confounding using methods from the causal inference literature. METHODS: Patients who stayed more than two days in two general ICUs in England between 2002 and 2006 were included in this cohort study. Marginal structural models with inverse probability weighting were used to estimate the mortality and discharge associated with Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia and the impact of appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy on these outcomes. FINDINGS: Among 3411 ICU admissions, 195 (5.7%) ICU-acquired Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia cases occurred. Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia was associated with an increased daily risk of ICU death [cause-specific hazard ratio (HR): 1.48; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.99] and a reduced daily risk of ICU discharge (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.54-0.80). Appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy did not significantly modify ICU mortality (HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 0.59-1.97) or discharge (HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.63-1.32). CONCLUSION: ICU-acquired Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia was associated with an increased daily risk of ICU mortality. Furthermore, the daily discharge rate was also lower after acquiring infection, even when adjusting for time-varying confounding using appropriate methodology. No evidence was found for a beneficial modifying effect of appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy on ICU mortality and discharge.

Antibiotic use during pregnancy and asthma in preschool children: the influence of confounding.

BACKGROUND: A recent study suggested that early-life intestinal microbiota may play an important role in the development of childhood asthma, indicating that antibiotics taken during early life or in late pregnancy may be associated with childhood asthma. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the association between prenatal antibiotic use and asthma in preschool children using data from the prescription database IADB.nl. To assess the influence of potential confounding, we conducted both a case-sibling and a case-control study and compared the results. METHODS: We conducted a case-sibling study in which 1228 children with asthma were compared to 1228 siblings without asthma, using data from the prescription database IADB.nl. In addition, a case-control study was conducted. Asthma in preschool children was defined as ≥ 3 prescriptions for anti-asthma medication within a year before the fifth birthday. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios (aORs). RESULTS: In both the case-sibling and case-control analysis, the use of antibiotics in the third trimester of pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of asthma in preschool children (aOR 1.37; 95% CI 1.02-1.83 and aOR 1.40; 95% CI 1.15-1.47). Time-trend analyses showed that results were not influenced by a time trend in antibiotic exposure. A significant association between exposure to antibiotics in any trimester of pregnancy and the development of asthma in preschool children was observed in the case-control analysis only (aOR 1.46; 95% CI 1.34-1.59). CONCLUSION: Antibiotic use in the third trimester of pregnancy was associated with a small increased risk of asthma in preschool children. This association was robust to time-invariant confounding or exposure time trends, further supporting the important role for early-life intestinal microbiota in the development of childhood asthma.

RSV vaccine in development: assessing the potential cost-effectiveness in the Dutch elderly population.

OBJECTIVES: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is increasingly recognized as an important cause of morbidity, mortality and health-care utilization in the elderly population. A theoretical model was built to assess the levels of vaccine effectiveness and vaccine costs for which a hypothetical RSV-vaccine for Dutch elderly could be cost-effective. METHODS: Different vaccination strategies were evaluated by changing the levels of vaccine effectiveness and the willingness to pay per quality-adjusted life year gained (QALY). Outcome measures included direct medical costs, QALYs, life years gained, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and the maximum total vaccination costs per individual (i.e. (vaccine price+administration costs)×nr of doses) while remaining cost-effective. RESULTS: Using base-case assumptions, it was estimated that vaccination of all persons 60 years and older would prevent 3402GP visits, 2989 antibiotic prescriptions, 535 hospitalizations and 249 deaths and would cost €73,261 per QALY, for a vaccine effectiveness of 70%. Vaccinating only the high risk population of 60 years and older would reduce the estimates to 2042GP visits, 2009 antibiotic prescriptions, 179 hospitalizations and 209 deaths and this reduced the cost per QALY to €34,796 per QALY. Using the same assumptions, the maximum total vaccination costs per individual ranged from €26 when vaccinating all persons 60 and older to €68 when vaccinating only persons aged 85 and above, using a willingness to pay threshold of €50,000 per QALY. For the high risk population aged 60 years and older the estimated maximum total vaccination costs ranged from €52 to €99. CONCLUSION: Vaccination of Dutch elderly against RSV was found cost-effective for several scenarios. As expected, vaccination is more likely to be cost-effective when only including persons who are at increased risk for contracting RSV or the potential complications of RSV. This theoretical study shows that based on the disease burden in the Dutch population aged 60yrs and older there is potential to develop a vaccine that might be considered cost-effective in the Netherlands.