Supervised machine learning for the prediction of post-operative clinical outcomes of hip and knee replacements: a review.

Prediction models are being increasingly used in the medical field to identify risk factors and possible outcomes. Some of these are presently being used to develop guidelines for improving clinical practice. The application of machine learning (ML), comprising a powerful set of computational tools for analysing data, has been clearly expanding in the role of predictive modelling. This paper reviews the latest developments of supervised ML techniques that have been used to analyse data related to post-operative total hip and knee replacements. The aim was to review the most recent findings of relevant published studies by outlining the methodologies employed (most-widely used supervised ML techniques), data sources, domains, limitations of predictive analytics and the quality of predictions.

What Is the Most Appropriate Comparator to Use in Assessing the Comparative Performance of Primary Total Knee Prostheses? A Registry-Based Study.

Background: The Australian Orthopedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry has developed a standardized multi-stage approach to identify prostheses with a higher-than-anticipated rate of revision when comparing a prosthesis of interest to all other prostheses within the same broad class. However, the approach does not adequately differentiate between the conventional and complex design prostheses, and the comparator classes need to be re-evaluated. This study aimed to identify a more relevant comparator to better reflect conventional and complex surgical practices according to the stability design and also explore how the rate of revision estimated in the comparator groups affects the identification of "prosthesis outliers." Methods: The cumulative percent revision (CPR) was calculated for 640,045 primary total knee replacements (TKRs) undertaken for Osteoarthritis from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2019. At first, survivorship analyses were undertaken to calculate the rate of revision for primary TKR by stability design. A modified TKR comparator group was developed by excluding the "complex" group of prostheses with fully stabilized and hinged designs. The effectiveness of the modified comparator groups, including cruciate retaining and posterior stabilized designs, was evaluated based on the ability to detect additional prostheses by performing the Australian Orthopedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry standardized method for identifying prosthesis outliers. Results: The modified comparator to include only conventional designs had a 10-year CPR of 5.2% (5.1, 5.3). When the fully stabilized and hinged design groups were combined as a comparator group of complex devices to reflect devices used only for specific purposes in primary TKR, the CPR at 10 year was 10.3% (8.6, 12.0). Conclusions: The use of modified comparator groups led to identifying additional conventional prostheses but fewer complex designs as being at risk and has the potential to improve the early assessment of TKR prostheses.

Innovations in pharmacovigilance studies of medicines in older people.

Pharmacovigilance is defined by the World Health Organization as "the science and activities relating to the detection, assessment, understanding and prevention of adverse effects or any other medicine/vaccine related problem". Pharmacovigilance studies are critical for detecting and assessing adverse events of medicines that may not have been observed in clinical trials. This activity is especially important in older people who are often excluded from clinical trials as they have multiple chronic conditions and use multiple medicines for longer durations than the clinical trials. In this narrative review we describe innovative methods in pharmacovigilance studies of medicines in older people that leverage the increasing availability of digital health technologies, electronic health records and real-world health data to identify and quantify medication related harms in older people.

Evolution of the data and methods in real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness studies on mortality: a scoping review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Early evidence on COVID-19 vaccine efficacy came from randomised trials. Many important questions subsequently about vaccine effectiveness (VE) have been addressed using real-world studies (RWS) and have informed most vaccination policies globally. As the questions about VE have evolved during the pandemic so have data, study design, and analytical choices. This scoping review aims to characterise this evolution and provide insights for future pandemic planning-specifically, what kinds of questions are asked at different stages of a pandemic, and what data infrastructure and methods are used? METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will identify relevant studies in the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health VIEW-hub database, which curates both published and preprint VE RWS identified from PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, the WHO COVID Database, MMWR, Eurosurveillance, medRxiv, bioRxiv, SSRN, Europe PMC, Research Square, Knowledge Hub, and Google. We will include RWS of COVID-19 VE that reported COVID-19-specific or all-cause mortality (coded as 'death' in the 'effectiveness studies' data set).Information on study characteristics; study context; data sources; design and analytic methods that address confounding will be extracted by single reviewer and checked for accuracy and discussed in a small group setting by methodological and analytic experts. A timeline mapping approach will be used to capture the evolution of this body of literature.By describing the evolution of RWS of VE through the COVID-19 pandemic, we will help identify options for VE studies and inform policy makers on the minimal data and analytic infrastructure needed to support rapid RWS of VE in future pandemics and of healthcare strategies more broadly. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: As data is in the public domain, ethical approval is not required. Findings of this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, and working-papers to policy makers. REGISTRATION: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/ZHDKR.

Medicine utilization studies in Australian individual-level dispensing data: A blinded, multi-center replicated analysis.

PURPOSE: Medicine dispensing data require extensive preparation when used for research and decisions during this process may lead to results that do not replicate between independent studies. We conducted an experiment to examine the impact of these decisions on results of a study measuring discontinuation, intensification, and switching in a cohort of patients initiating metformin. METHODS: Four Australian sites independently developed a HARmonized Protocol template to Enhance Reproducibility (HARPER) protocol and executed their analyses using the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme 10% sample dataset. Each site calculated cohort size and demographics and measured treatment events including discontinuation, switch to another diabetes medicine, and intensification (addition of another diabetes medicine). Time to event and hazard ratios for associations between cohort characteristics and each event were also calculated. Concordance was assessed by measuring deviations from the calculated median of each value across the sites. RESULTS: Good agreement was found across sites for the number of initiators (median: 53 127, range: 51 848-55 273), gender (56.9% female, range: 56.8%-57.1%) and age group. Each site employed different methods for estimating days supply and used different operational definitions for the treatment events. Consequently, poor agreement was found for incidence of discontinuation (median 55%, range: 34%-67%), switching (median 3.5%, range: 1%-7%), intensification (median 8%, range: 5%-12%), time to event estimates and hazard ratios. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in analytical decisions when deriving exposure from dispensing data affect replicability. Detailed analytical protocols, such as HARPER, are critical for transparency of operational definitions and interpretations of key study parameters.

Comparative Effectiveness of Second-line Antihyperglycemic Agents for Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Large-scale, Multinational, Federated Analysis of the LEGEND-T2DM Study.

Background: SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) reduce major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, their effectiveness relative to each other and other second-line antihyperglycemic agents is unknown, without any major ongoing head-to-head trials. Methods: Across the LEGEND-T2DM network, we included ten federated international data sources, spanning 1992-2021. We identified 1,492,855 patients with T2DM and established cardiovascular disease (CVD) on metformin monotherapy who initiated one of four second-line agents (SGLT2is, GLP1-RAs, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor [DPP4is], sulfonylureas [SUs]). We used large-scale propensity score models to conduct an active comparator, target trial emulation for pairwise comparisons. After evaluating empirical equipoise and population generalizability, we fit on-treatment Cox proportional hazard models for 3-point MACE (myocardial infarction, stroke, death) and 4-point MACE (3-point MACE + heart failure hospitalization) risk, and combined hazard ratio (HR) estimates in a random-effects meta-analysis. Findings: Across cohorts, 16·4%, 8·3%, 27·7%, and 47·6% of individuals with T2DM initiated SGLT2is, GLP1-RAs, DPP4is, and SUs, respectively. Over 5·2 million patient-years of follow-up and 489 million patient-days of time at-risk, there were 25,982 3-point MACE and 41,447 4-point MACE events. SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs were associated with a lower risk for 3-point MACE compared with DPP4is (HR 0·89 [95% CI, 0·79-1·00] and 0·83 [0·70-0·98]), and SUs (HR 0·76 [0·65-0·89] and 0·71 [0·59-0·86]). DPP4is were associated with a lower 3-point MACE risk versus SUs (HR 0·87 [0·79-0·95]). The pattern was consistent for 4-point MACE for the comparisons above. There were no significant differences between SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs for 3-point or 4-point MACE (HR 1·06 [0·96-1·17] and 1·05 [0·97-1·13]). Interpretation: In patients with T2DM and established CVD, we found comparable cardiovascular risk reduction with SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs, with both agents more effective than DPP4is, which in turn were more effective than SUs. These findings suggest that the use of GLP1-RAs and SGLT2is should be prioritized as second-line agents in those with established CVD. Funding: National Institutes of Health, United States Department of Veterans Affairs.

Quality use of publicly subsidised tapentadol in Australia: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sustained-release (SR) tapentadol was listed on Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) in 2014 for chronic severe pain requiring long-term opioid treatment. Dispensings have increased since listing despite declining trends in other PBS-listed opioids. Preferential prescribing of SR opioids may increase the risk of dependence and accidental overdose, particularly when used to treat acute pain. AIMS: To explore the quality use of publicly subsidised tapentadol in Australia. METHODS: We examined annual initiation rates and patterns of use of tapentadol (SR) in the dispensing records of a 10% random sample of PBS-eligible Australians (2014-2021). We used national tapentadol sales data to assess the proportion of sales attributable to the PBS. RESULTS: Tapentadol initiation increased from 2014, peaking at 7.5/1000 adult population in 2019 before declining to 5.3/1000 in 2021. We identified 63 766 new users between 2014 and 2020, of whom 92.8% discontinued in the first year following initiation, 58.0% had only a single dispensing and 34.3% had no other opioids dispensed in the 3 months before or after initiation. 27.8% of new users were dispensed tapentadol on the same day as potentially interacting medicines. There was a sustained drop in the proportion of sales attributable to the PBS from June 2020 onwards, from an average of 69.1%, to 63.9% of pack sales. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of use suggest tapentadol (SR) is generally used for short duration. Although most tapentadol sold in Australia is subsidised, there is evidence of a shift towards private sales.

Seamless EMR data access: Integrated governance, digital health and the OMOP-CDM.

Objectives In this overview, we describe theObservational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model (OMOP-CDM), the established governance processes employed in EMR data repositories, and demonstrate how OMOP transformed data provides a lever for more efficient and secure access to electronic medical record (EMR) data by health service providers and researchers.Methods Through pseudonymisation and common data quality assessments, the OMOP-CDM provides a robust framework for converting complex EMR data into a standardised format. This allows for the creation of shared end-to-end analysis packages without the need for direct data exchange, thereby enhancing data security and privacy. By securely sharing de-identified and aggregated data and conducting analyses across multiple OMOP-converted databases, patient-level data is securely firewalled within its respective local site.Results By simplifying data management processes and governance, and through the promotion of interoperability, the OMOP-CDM supports a wide range of clinical, epidemiological, and translational research projects, as well as health service operational reporting.Discussion Adoption of the OMOP-CDM internationally and locally enables conversion of vast amounts of complex, and heterogeneous EMR data into a standardised structured data model, simplifies governance processes, and facilitates rapid repeatable cross-institution analysis through shared end-to-end analysis packages, without the sharing of data.Conclusion The adoption of the OMOP-CDM has the potential to transform health data analytics by providing a common platform for analysing EMR data across diverse healthcare settings.

The weighted cumulative exposure method and its application to pharmacoepidemiology: A narrative review.

PURPOSE: The weighted cumulative exposure (WCE) method has been used in a number of fields including pharmacoepidemiology where it can account for intensity, duration and timing of exposures on the risk of an outcome. The method uses a data driven approach with flexible cubic B-splines to assign weights to past doses and select an aetiologically appropriate time window. Predictions of risk are possible for common exposure patterns encountered in real-world studies. The purpose of this study was to describe applications of the WCE method to pharmacoepidemiology and assess the strengths and limitations of the method. METHOD: A literature search was undertaken to find studies applying the WCE method to the study of medicines. Articles published in PubMed using the search term 'weighted cumulative exposure' and articles citing Sylvestre et al. (2009) in Google Scholar or Scopus up to March 2023 were subsequently reviewed. Articles were selected based on title and review of abstracts. RESULTS: Seventeen clinical applications using the data-driven WCE method with flexible cubic splines were identified in the review. These included 3 case-control studies and 14 cohort studies, of which 12 were analysed with Cox proportional hazards models and 2 with logistic regression. Thirteen studies used time windows of 1 year or longer. Of 11 studies which compared conventional models with the WCE method, 10 (91%) studies found a better fit with WCE models while one had an equivalent fit. The freely available 'WCE' software package has facilitated the applications of the WCE method with flexible cubic splines. CONCLUSIONS: The WCE method allows additional insights into the effect of cumulative exposure on outcomes, including the timing and intensity (dose) of the exposure on the risk. The flexibility of the method is particularly well suited to studies with long-term exposures that vary over time or where the current risk of an event is affected by how far the exposure is in the past, which is difficult to model with conventional definitions of exposure. Interpretation of the results can be more complex than for conventional models and would be facilitated by a standardised reporting framework.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Adverse Event Signals Associated with Potential Inhibitors of Glutathione Peroxidase 1: A Sequence Symmetry Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Prior molecular modelling analysis identified several medicines as potential inhibitors of glutathione peroxidase 1 (GPx1) which may contribute to development or progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study investigates 40 medicines (index medicines) for signals of COPD development or progression in a real-world dataset. METHODS: Sequence symmetry analysis (SSA) was conducted using a 10% extract of Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) claims data between January 2013 and September 2019. Patients must have been initiated on an index medicine and a medicine for COPD development or progression within 12 months of each other. Sequence ratios were calculated as the number of patients who initiated an index medicine followed by a medicine for COPD development or progression divided by the number who initiated the index medicine second. An adjusted sequence ratio (aSR) was calculated which accounted for changes in prescribing trends. Adverse drug event signals (ADEs) were identified where the aSR lower 95% confidence interval (CI) was greater than 1. RESULTS: Twenty-one of 40 (53%) index medicines had at least one ADE signal of COPD development or progression. Signals of COPD development, as identified using initiation of tiotropium, were observed for atenolol (aSR 1.32, 95% CI 1.23-1.42) and naproxen (aSR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.23). Several signals of COPD progression were observed, including initiation of fluticasone propionate/salmeterol following initiation of atenolol (aSR 1.44, 95% CI 1.30-1.60) and initiation of aclidinium/formoterol following initiation of naproxen (aSR 2.21, 95% CI 1.34-3.65). CONCLUSION: ADE signals were generated for several potential GPx1 inhibitors; however, further validation of signals is required in large well-controlled observational studies.

What is the most appropriate comparator group to use in assessing the performance of primary total hip prostheses within the community?

BACKGROUND: There are variations in the performance of individual prostheses used in hip replacements. Some of which have unexpectedly higher revision rates - outliers. The Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOANJRR) has established a standardised multi-stage approach for identifying these devices. This is done by comparing the revision rates of individual prostheses to all other prostheses in class, with the exception of large head metal-on-metal (LHMoM) prostheses. However, improvements in device design and performance over time have required a need to reconsider the comparator group. This study aimed to identify a more specific comparator to better reflect contemporary surgical practice. METHODS: The time to first revision was estimated on the data of 413,417 primary total conventional hip replacements undertaken for osteoarthritis (OA) from 01 January 2003 to 31 December 2019. Survivorship analyses with stepwise exclusions were undertaken. The first exclusion was LHMoM, followed by other non-modern bearing surfaces (defined as all the bearing couples except metal or ceramic heads on cross-linked polyethylene and mixed ceramic-on-ceramic), and then devices with modular neck-stem design or used for specific purposes (incl. constrained, dual-mobility, and head size <28 mm). Lastly, all remaining prostheses previously identified as having a higher than anticipated rate of revision (HTARR) were also excluded. RESULTS: These exclusions progressively reduced the cumulative percent revision (CPR) rate. The final comparator, which only includes satisfactory-performed prostheses of contemporary design and use, has a 10-year CPR of 4.30% (95% CI, 4.2-4.41) which is lower than 4.93% (95% CI, 4.84-5.02) for the current comparator used by the AOANJRR (all prostheses excluding LHMOM). Over the study period, 13 additional components were identified utilising the modified comparator. CONCLUSIONS: The calculation of the comparator revision rate should be re-evaluated to include only modern prosthesis constructs to ensure that poorly performing prostheses are identified early.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination against COVID-19 specific and all-cause mortality in older Australians: a population based study.

Background: Few studies have examined effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against COVID-19 and all-cause mortality across different pandemic periods in 2022. Methods: We used linked whole-of-population data from the 2021 Australian Census, Australian Immunisation Register, death registrations and other national datasets including migration data. Among 3.8 million adults aged 65+ years and >170,000 aged care residents, we used survival analysis to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 specific mortality and all-cause mortality, by vaccine dose and time since receipt, adjusted for age, sex and other factors. We also estimated absolute COVID-19 mortality rates. Findings: From January-May 2022 (Omicron BA.1/2), 3250 COVID-19 deaths occurred; from June-November (Omicron BA.4/5) 3185 COVID-19 deaths occurred. During January-May, VE of a 3rd COVID-19 vaccine dose within 3 months was 93% (95% CI 93-94%) whilst VE of a 2nd dose >6 months since receipt was 34% (26-42%). During June-November, VE of a 4th COVID-19 vaccine dose within 3 months was 84% (82-86%) whilst VE of a 3rd dose >6 months since receipt was 56% (50-62%). VE estimates for aged care residents were similar, but absolute risk reductions were substantially greater. During June-November 2022, for all-cause mortality, VE of a 4th dose within 3 months was 58% (56-59%) whilst VE of a 3rd dose >6 months since receipt was 19% (16-22%). Interpretations: COVID-19 vaccination is highly effective against COVID-19 mortality among older adults although effectiveness wanes with time since the last dose. Our findings emphasise the importance of continuing to administer booster doses, particularly to those at highest risk. Funding: This study was funded by the Health Economics Research Division in the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care.

Multinational patterns of second line antihyperglycaemic drug initiation across cardiovascular risk groups: federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM.

Objective: To assess the uptake of second line antihyperglycaemic drugs among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who are receiving metformin. Design: Federated pharmacoepidemiological evaluation in LEGEND-T2DM. Setting: 10 US and seven non-US electronic health record and administrative claims databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics network in eight countries from 2011 to the end of 2021. Participants: 4.8 million patients (≥18 years) across US and non-US based databases with type 2 diabetes mellitus who had received metformin monotherapy and had initiated second line treatments. Exposure: The exposure used to evaluate each database was calendar year trends, with the years in the study that were specific to each cohort. Main outcomes measures: The outcome was the incidence of second line antihyperglycaemic drug use (ie, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, and sulfonylureas) among individuals who were already receiving treatment with metformin. The relative drug class level uptake across cardiovascular risk groups was also evaluated. Results: 4.6 million patients were identified in US databases, 61 382 from Spain, 32 442 from Germany, 25 173 from the UK, 13 270 from France, 5580 from Scotland, 4614 from Hong Kong, and 2322 from Australia. During 2011-21, the combined proportional initiation of the cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors) increased across all data sources, with the combined initiation of these drugs as second line drugs in 2021 ranging from 35.2% to 68.2% in the US databases, 15.4% in France, 34.7% in Spain, 50.1% in Germany, and 54.8% in Scotland. From 2016 to 2021, in some US and non-US databases, uptake of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors increased more significantly among populations with no cardiovascular disease compared with patients with established cardiovascular disease. No data source provided evidence of a greater increase in the uptake of these two drug classes in populations with cardiovascular disease compared with no cardiovascular disease. Conclusions: Despite the increase in overall uptake of cardioprotective antihyperglycaemic drugs as second line treatments for type 2 diabetes mellitus, their uptake was lower in patients with cardiovascular disease than in people with no cardiovascular disease over the past decade. A strategy is needed to ensure that medication use is concordant with guideline recommendations to improve outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Ranitidine Use and Incident Cancer in a Multinational Cohort.

Importance: Ranitidine, the most widely used histamine-2 receptor antagonist (H2RA), was withdrawn because of N-nitrosodimethylamine impurity in 2020. Given the worldwide exposure to this drug, the potential risk of cancer development associated with the intake of known carcinogens is an important epidemiological concern. Objective: To examine the comparative risk of cancer associated with the use of ranitidine vs other H2RAs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This new-user active comparator international network cohort study was conducted using 3 health claims and 9 electronic health record databases from the US, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, France, South Korea, and Taiwan. Large-scale propensity score (PS) matching was used to minimize confounding of the observed covariates with negative control outcomes. Empirical calibration was performed to account for unobserved confounding. All databases were mapped to a common data model. Database-specific estimates were combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Participants included individuals aged at least 20 years with no history of cancer who used H2RAs for more than 30 days from January 1986 to December 2020, with a 1-year washout period. Data were analyzed from April to September 2021. Exposure: The main exposure was use of ranitidine vs other H2RAs (famotidine, lafutidine, nizatidine, and roxatidine). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incidence of any cancer, except nonmelanoma skin cancer. Secondary outcomes included all cancer except thyroid cancer, 16 cancer subtypes, and all-cause mortality. Results: Among 1 183 999 individuals in 11 databases, 909 168 individuals (mean age, 56.1 years; 507 316 [55.8%] women) were identified as new users of ranitidine, and 274 831 individuals (mean age, 58.0 years; 145 935 [53.1%] women) were identified as new users of other H2RAs. Crude incidence rates of cancer were 14.30 events per 1000 person-years (PYs) in ranitidine users and 15.03 events per 1000 PYs among other H2RA users. After PS matching, cancer risk was similar in ranitidine compared with other H2RA users (incidence, 15.92 events per 1000 PYs vs 15.65 events per 1000 PYs; calibrated meta-analytic hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97-1.12). No significant associations were found between ranitidine use and any secondary outcomes after calibration. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, ranitidine use was not associated with an increased risk of cancer compared with the use of other H2RAs. Further research is needed on the long-term association of ranitidine with cancer development.

Cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis patients treated with targeted synthetic and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs: A multi-centre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to compare the cardiovascular safety of interleukin-6 inhibitors (IL-6i) and Janus Kinase inhibitors (JAKi) to tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using population-based electronic databases from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea. We identified newly diagnosed patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who received b/tsDMARDs first time. We followed patients from b/tsDMARD initiation to the earliest outcome (acute coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, venous thromboembolism and systemic embolism) or censoring events (death, transformation of b/tsDMARDs on different targets, discontinuation and study end). Using TNFi as reference, we applied generalized linear regression for the incidence rate ratio estimation adjusted by age, sex, disease duration and comorbidities. Random effects meta-analysis was used for pooled analysis. RESULTS: We identified 8689 participants for this study. Median (interquartile range) follow-up years were 1.45 (2.77) in Hong Kong, 1.72 (2.39) in Taiwan and 1.45 (2.46) in Korea. Compared to TNFi, the adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of IL-6i in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea are 0.99 (0.25, 3.95), 1.06 (0.57, 1.98) and 1.05 (0.59, 1.86) and corresponding aIRR of JAKi are 1.50 (0.42, 5.41), 0.60 (0.26, 1.41), and 0.81 (0.38, 1.74), respectively. Pooled aIRRs showed no significant risk of cardiovascular events (CVEs) associated with IL-6i (1.05 [0.70, 1.57]) nor JAKi (0.80 [0.48, 1.35]) compared to TNFi. CONCLUSION: There was no difference in the risk of CVE among RA patients initiated with IL-6i, or JAKi compared to TNFi. The finding is consistent in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Korea.

Effect of Aspirin vs Enoxaparin on 90-Day Mortality in Patients Undergoing Hip or Knee Arthroplasty: A Secondary Analysis of the CRISTAL Cluster Randomized Trial.

Importance: Ischemic heart disease remains the leading cause of mortality following hip and knee arthroplasty. Due to its antiplatelet and cardioprotective properties, aspirin has been proposed as an agent that could reduce mortality when used as venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis following these procedures. Objective: To compare aspirin with enoxaparin in reducing 90-day mortality for patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty procedures. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study was a planned secondary analysis of the CRISTAL cluster randomized, crossover, registry-nested trial performed across 31 participating hospitals in Australia between April 20, 2019, and December 18, 2020. The aim of the CRISTAL trial was to determine whether aspirin was noninferior to enoxaparin in preventing symptomatic VTE following hip or knee arthroplasty. The primary study restricted the analysis to patients undergoing total hip or knee arthroplasty for a diagnosis of osteoarthritis only. This study includes all adult patients (aged ≥18 years) undergoing any hip or knee arthroplasty procedure at participating sites during the course of the trial. Data were analyzed from June 1 to September 6, 2021. Interventions: Hospitals were randomized to administer all patients oral aspirin (100 mg daily) or subcutaneous enoxaparin (40 mg daily) for 35 days after hip arthroplasty and 14 days after knee arthroplasty procedures. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was mortality within 90 days. The between-group difference in mortality was estimated using cluster summary methods. Results: A total of 23 458 patients from 31 hospitals were included, with 14 156 patients allocated to aspirin (median [IQR] age, 69 [62-77] years; 7984 [56.4%] female) and 9302 patients allocated to enoxaparin (median [IQR] age, 70 [62-77] years; 5277 [56.7%] female). The mortality rate within 90 days of surgery was 1.67% in the aspirin group and 1.53% in the enoxaparin group (estimated difference, 0.04%; 95% CI, -0.05%-0.42%). For the subgroup of 21 148 patients with a nonfracture diagnosis, the mortality rate was 0.49% in the aspirin group and 0.41% in the enoxaparin group (estimated difference, 0.05%; 95% CI, -0.67% to 0.76%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of a cluster randomized trial comparing aspirin with enoxaparin following hip or knee arthroplasty, there was no significant between-group difference in mortality within 90 days when either drug was used for VTE prophylaxis. Trial Registration: http://anzctr.org.au Identifier: ACTRN12618001879257.

Application of an Integrative Drug Safety Model for Detection of Adverse Drug Events Associated With Inhibition of Glutathione Peroxidase 1 in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease is characterised by declining lung function and a greater oxidative stress burden due to reduced activity of antioxidant enzymes such as Glutathione Peroxidase 1. OBJECTIVES: The extent to which drugs may contribute to this compromised activity is largely unknown. An integrative drug safety model explores inhibition of Glutathione Peroxidase 1 by drugs and their association with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease adverse drug events. METHODS: In silico molecular modelling approaches were utilised to predict the interactions that drugs have within the active site of Glutathione Peroxidase 1 in both human and bovine models. Similarities of chemical features between approved drugs and the known inhibitor tiopronin were also investigated. Subsequently the Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event System was searched to uncover adverse drug event signals associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. RESULTS: Statistical and molecular modelling analyses confirmed that the use of several registered drugs, including acetylsalicylic acid and atenolol may be associated with inhibition of Glutathione Peroxidase 1 and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CONCLUSION: The integration of molecular modelling and pharmacoepidemological data has the potential to advance drug safety science. Ongoing review of medication use and further pharmacoepidemiological and biological analyses are warranted to ensure appropriate use is recommended.

Prevalence and Preventability of Adverse Medicine Events in a Sample of Australian Aged-Care Residents: A Secondary Analysis of Data from the ReMInDAR Trial.

BACKGROUND: Aged care residents are vulnerable to the harmful effects of medicines; however, data on the prevalence and preventability of adverse medicine events in aged care residents are scarce. AIM: To determine the prevalence and preventability of adverse medicine events in Australian aged care residents. METHODS: A secondary analysis of data from the Reducing Medicine-Induced Deterioration and Adverse Reactions (ReMInDAR) trial was conducted. Potential adverse medicine events were identified and independently screened by two research pharmacists to produce a short-list of potential adverse medicine events. An expert clinical panel reviewed each potential adverse medicine to determine the likelihood that the event was medicine related (based on the Naranjo Probability Scale criteria). The clinical panel assessed preventability of medicine-related events using Schumock-Thornton criteria. RESULTS: There were 583 adverse events due to medicines, involving 154 residents (62% of the 248 study participants). There was a median of three medication-related adverse events (interquartile range [IQR] 1-5) per resident over the 12-month follow-up period. The most common medication-related adverse events were falls (56%), bleeding (18%) and bruising (9%). There were 482 (83%) medication-related adverse events that were preventable, most commonly falls (66% of preventable adverse medicine events), bleeding (12%) and dizziness (8%). Of the 248 residents, 133 (54% of the cohort) had at least one preventable adverse medicine event, with a median of 2 (IQR 1-4) preventable adverse medicine events per resident. CONCLUSION: In total, 62% of aged care residents in our study had an adverse medicine event and 54% had a preventable adverse medicine event in a 12-month period.

Reducing opioid use for chronic non-cancer pain in primary care using an evidence-based, theory-informed, multistrategic, multistakeholder approach: a single-arm time series with segmented regression.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have high opioid use among people with chronic non-cancer pain. Knowledge about effective interventions that could be implemented at scale is limited. We designed a national intervention that included audit and feedback, deprescribing guidance, information on catastrophising assessment, pain neuroscience education and a cognitive tool for use by patients with their healthcare providers. METHOD: We used a single-arm time series with segmented regression to assess rates of people using opioids before (January 2015 to September 2017), at the time of (October 2017) and after the intervention (November 2017 to August 2019). We used a cohort with historical comparison group and log binomial regression to examine the rate of psychologist claims in opioid users not using psychologist services prior to the intervention. RESULTS: 13 968 patients using opioids, 8568 general practitioners, 8370 pharmacies and accredited pharmacists and 689 psychologists were targeted. The estimated difference in opioid use was -0.51 persons per 1000 persons per month (95% CI -0.69, -0.34; p<0.001) as a result of the intervention, equating to 25 387 (95% CI 24 676, 26 131) patient-months of opioid use avoided during the 22-month follow-up. The targeted group had a significantly higher rate of incident patient psychologist claims compared with the historical comparison group (rate ratio: 1.37, 95% CI 1.16, 1.63; p<0.001), equating to an additional 690 (95% CI 289, 1167) patient-months of psychologist treatment during the 22-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Our intervention addressed the cognitive, affective and sensory factors that contribute to pain and consequent opioid use, demonstrating it could be implemented at scale and was associated with a reduction in opioid use and increasing utilisation of psychologist services.

Using wrist-worn accelerometers to identify the impact of medicines with anticholinergic or sedative properties on sedentary time: A 12-month prospective analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Studies have shown that use of medicines with sedative or anticholinergic properties is associated with a decline in physical function; however, the effects have not been quantified, and it is not known how and which specific physical movements are affected. This prospective study quantified the impact of a change in sedative or anticholinergic load over time on 24-hour activity composition. METHODS: This study used data collected from a randomised trial assessing an ongoing pharmacist service in residential aged care. The 24-hour activity composition of sleep, sedentary behaviour, light-intensity physical activity, and moderate to vigorous physical activity was derived from 24-hour accelerometry bands. Mixed effect linear models were used to regress the multivariate outcome of 24-hour activity composition on medication load at baseline and at 12 months. A fixed effect interaction between trial stage and medication load was included to test for differing sedative or anticholinergic load effects at the two trial stages. RESULTS: Data for 183 and 85 participants were available at baseline and 12 months respectively. There was a statistically significant interaction between medication load and time point on the multivariate outcome of 24-hour activity composition (sedative F = 7.2, p < 0.001 and anticholinergic F = 3.2, p = 0.02). A sedative load increase from 2 to 4 over the 12-month period was associated with an average increase in daily sedentary behaviour by an estimated 24 min. CONCLUSION: As sedative or anticholinergic load increased, there was an increase in sedentary time. Our findings suggest wearable accelerometry bands are a possible tool for monitoring the effects on physical function of sedative and anticholinergic medicines. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The ReMInDAR trial was registered on the Australian and New Zealand Trials Registry ACTRN12618000766213.